Modelling the spread of HIV in social networks of injecting drug users.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk of a future rise of HIV prevalence in populations of injecting drug users (IDU) with low HIV prevalence but continuing risk behaviour, and to study the potential influence of prevention measures on HIV incidence. METHODS: A stochastic simulation model was used to describe a network of long-term buddy relationships in a population of IDU. HIV transmission took place when borrowing injecting equipment from an infected buddy or stranger. The probability of transmission depended on the duration of infection. Individuals remained in the population on average for 10 years. Two surveys amongst IDU in The Netherlands containing information about risk behaviour were used to estimate model parameters. We investigated the effect of different prevention strategies. RESULTS: Below a threshold sharing frequency the epidemic never takes off; above the threshold there is a large stochastic variation in prevalence. After reduction of risk behaviour, HIV prevalence decreases very slowly. Reducing sharing with strangers is more effective than reducing the overall sharing frequency. Prevention focused on new IDU greatly reduces HIV incidence. Reduction of sharing frequency in HIV-positive IDU has no significant influence on HIV incidence at HIV testing rates of 10 and 50% per year, if infectivity is highest during primary infection. CONCLUSIONS: A stabilization of HIV prevalence does not exclude the possibility of a future rise. Predictions about the future course of an epidemic are inherently uncertain. The effect of prevention programmes on HIV prevalence only becomes visible on a long time-scale. Social networks of IDU play an important role in transmission dynamics and success of prevention.

An age-period-cohort analysis of 50,875 AIDS cases among injecting drug users in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The long average incubation time from HIV infection to AIDS makes it difficult to estimate recent HIV transmission from AIDS incidence data. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis can separate out the effects of age, calendar time and birth cohort to provide a clearer picture of transmission trends. METHODS: AIDS incidence data from 1981 to 1994 among intravenous drug users (IDU) for 12 Western European countries were used. Yearly incidences per 100,000 population or 100,000 person-years were calculated by age at diagnosis and 5-year birth cohort (1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969 and 1970-1974), and corrected for reporting delay. Incidence patterns were compared between birth cohorts and countries. RESULTS: For most countries the impact was greatest on the cohort born 1960-1964. Comparing incidence patterns in the 1965-1969 to 1960-1964 cohorts suggest the epidemic has plateaued at low to intermediate levels in Austria, Greece and the North-Western European countries, and at high levels in France, Italy and Switzerland. For most countries transmission amongst the 1970-1974 as compared to the 1965-1969 cohorts could not be assessed due to small numbers and short follow-up time. In Spain the epidemic was uncontrolled with a high incidence among recent birth cohorts. In Portugal the epidemic was still at an early and expanding phase. CONCLUSIONS: The APC analysis revealed large country differences in the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among IDU. Full interpretation of these differences is dependent on information from other sources about the local public health response and trends in drug injecting behaviours. Earlier introduction of the virus and higher prevalence of injecting drug use may explain some of the generally higher incidence in Southern European countries, but the larger part of it is most likely explained by local characteristics of drug users, such as younger age and more frequent sharing of needles and syringes, and a less effective public health response.

Lyme borreliosis in Dutch forestry workers.

Serum samples from 127 Dutch forestry workers and 127 matched controls were tested for antibodies against Borrelia burgdorferi in an indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA). Those of the forestry workers were also tested by Western blotting. The forestry workers were examined clinically for evidence of Lyme borreliosis without the examiner or the workers knowing the results of the laboratory tests. Seroprevalence of B. burgdorferi antibodies among forestry workers (25/127) was significantly higher than among controls matched for age and place of residence (8/127), odds ratio 3.7 (95% CI 1.5-9.7). Of the 25 sera of forestry workers positive in the IFA, 23 reacted with at least five bacterial polypeptides in the Western blot test. According to adapted CDC criteria, seven forestry workers (6%) were classified as being a case of Lyme borreliosis. In only one of them had the diagnosis been made before this investigation. Five persons had a history of erythema migrans, one of arthritis, and one of persistent infection. We conclude that Lyme borreliosis is an occupational disease among forestry workers in the Netherlands, with a three-fold higher seroprevalence than among matched controls. The disease, often not diagnosed among this high-risk group, warrants more attention to achieve early recognition and to prevent late complications.

Laboratory-based HIV surveillance with information on exposure: importance of discriminating person-based from test-based results.

Within a surveillance programme in a Regional Public Health Laboratory anonymous information on HIV test, requesting physician and tested individual is automatically selected, regardless of test result. Thereby, personal identifiers are transformed into unique but meaningless numeric codes. Besides, requesting physicians receive a questionnaire on indication for testing (response 87%). Between April 1989 and June 1993 12,219 HIV tests were performed in 10,972 individuals. The percentage of positive tests (2.1%) was twice the percentage of positive individuals (1%). No increase in number of new infections was observed over time. Of individuals, 41.6% were tested due to third party requests (mainly insurance): HIV was demonstrated once (0.03%). Among the remainder, with medical indications, seroprevalence was 1.4%. At relatively little expense, we were able to provide valid information about patterns of HIV-testing and HIV seroprevalences among people tested in routine medical practice. Prevention of double counts proved to be important. Extension to other Dutch areas is expected.

[Prevalence of HIV infection among drug users in Zuid-Limburg]. / Prevalentie van HIV-infectie onder druggebruikers in Zuid-Limburg.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of HIV infection among intravenous (IDU) and non-intravenous drug users in Heerlen and Maastricht (Southern Netherlands), to detect subgroups of IDU with a higher risk of HIV infection, and to assess the risk of further spread of HIV. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Heerlen, Kerkrade, Brunssum and Maastricht, the Netherlands. METHODS: Between August 15 and November 25, 1994, a saliva specimen and a short questionnaire were obtained from 449 drug users (340 IDU) in Heerlen (and environs) and Maastricht. Participants were recruited through methadone care (54%), syringe exchange (16%), a street prostitution project (3%), street recruitment (23%) and other drug users (4%). RESULTS: Of the 340 IDU 33 were infected (prevalence: 10% (95% confidence interval: 7-13)), among the 109 non-IDU no infections were found (0% (0-3)). IDU making use of the syringe exchange had a higher prevalence (odds ratio 3.13 (1.37-7.61)). In logistic regression analysis, this finding could not be explained by selection on more risky injecting. One in five currently injecting IDU reported having used someone else's used needle or syringe in the last 6 months. One in five IDU had a non-drug user as steady sexual partner. In sexual contacts between steady partners condom use was low. On the basis of self-reported serostatus it appeared that some infections have taken place in the last two years. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HIV infections among IDU in Heerlen and Maastricht is about 10%. IDU using the syringe exchange have a higher prevalence. This means this prevention reaches the high-risk group, but probably can not avoid all infections. The risk of further spread among IDU is high. The risk of spread to non-IDU and non-drug users is present.

[Analysis of the AIDS epidemic in The Netherlands, 1982-1993]. / Analyse van de AIDS-epidemie in Nederland, 1982-1993.

OBJECTIVE: Description of the epidemiology and transmission categories of AIDS in the Netherlands. DESIGN: Descriptive. SETTING: The Netherlands. METHOD: Analysis of all registered AIDS patients until 31 December 1993. Trends in the composition of this population were studied with respect to age and sex, risk groups, geographic distribution across the country, heterosexual transmission, AIDS-defining diseases and reporting pattern. RESULTS: From the first patient in 1982 until December 31, 1993, a cumulative total of 2912 patients was diagnosed and reported in the Netherlands (2995 when corrected for reporting delay). The numbers of reported AIDS cases in the Netherlands are smaller than previously predicted by mathematical models. The proportion of homosexual men in the incidence of AIDS dropped from 89 to 73 per cent, the proportions of intravenous drug users and heterosexual transmission rose to 11 per cent each. Patients in the category of heterosexual transmission are mainly individuals from countries where heterosexual contact is the dominant mode of transmission and their sex partners, and to a lesser extent the sex partners of intravenous drug users (whether or not in relation to prostitution). The proportion of women is rising (229 patients or 8 per cent by December 1993), with most cases transmitted initially by intravenous drug use but later by heterosexual contact. CONCLUSION: The number of AIDS cases in all risk groups combined is levelling off. However, more detailed analysis shows that the numbers of cases of heterosexual transmission and those in young homosexual men are still rising. For a better quantitation of the quality of the AIDS data, specific research into underreporting and non-diagnosis of AIDS cases in the Netherlands is warranted.

Methods for estimating HIV prevalence: A comparison of extrapolation from surveys on infection rate and risk behaviour with back-calculation for the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: To compare HIV prevalence estimates (total number infected) by using extrapolation from surveys on infection rate and risk behaviour (EIR) in specific segments of the population and back-calculation (BC) on reported AIDS cases. To discuss potential sources of bias and error, and to identify areas for improvement of the methodology. DESIGN: Systematic comparison and epidemiological assessment of data input, underlying assumptions, and output. METHODS: Low, possibly unbiased and high estimates of HIV prevalence as of January 1996 for homo/bisexual men, injecting drug users. heterosexual men and women with multiple partners, and blood transfusion recipients and haemophiliacs were derived from surveys and continuous data collections on HIV infection rate and risk behaviour in the Netherlands between 1992 and 1996. These were compared with estimates (point and 95 % CI) by empirical Bayesian BC on AIDS cases 1982-1995. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The estimate of HIV prevalence by EIR was 13,806 with low and high estimates of 9619 and 17,700, respectively. The HIV prevalence estimate by BC was 8812 (95% CI: 7759-9867). The available data from EIR are too limited for accurate estimates of HIV prevalence. EIR estimates could be improved considerably with more precise data on prevalence of risk behaviours and HIV prevalence rate for homosexual men. More confidence can be put in the BC estimates, but these could be underestimates because of the age effect on incubation time, pre-AIDS treatment and relapse of risk behaviour. BC estimates could be improved by a better representation of the incubation time distribution (including the effect of age there-upon), better data on the effectiveness and uptake of pre-AIDS antiretroviral treatment and prophylaxis of opportunistic infections, and on the level of underreporting.

Reaching homosexual men for HIV surveillance through a gay magazine.

HIV surveillance in homosexual men is poor in most countries, as this risk group is difficult to sample. The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of reaching homosexual men for national HIV surveillance using gay community media. In 1989, a questionnaire on general gay issues, with a section on AIDS, was included in a widely sold gay magazine in the Netherlands. Among 17,700 sold copies, 1134 responses were obtained from males (6%). Of these, 669 men (59%) gave their address, of which in turn 84% responded to a questionnaire on risk behaviour in 1990. In 1991/1992, the 669 men were asked to participate in an HIV serosurvey, in which eventually 308 participated with a blood test (46%) and 147 without (total 68%). Participation in the serosurvey with blood test was associated with reporting multiple partners in 1989. Twenty participants were infected (6.5%). In logistic regression analysis, risk factors for infection were recent unprotected receptive anal intercourse with multiple partners (odds ratio (OR): 10.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): (2.18-52.2); one partner 1.17 (0.31-4.48); none 1) and living in Amsterdam (OR: 3.92; 95% CI: (0.99-15.5); urbanised western Netherlands 2.15 (0.57-8.03); elsewhere 1), while a high educational level was protective (OR: 0.29 (0.08-0.96); middle 0.41 (0.11-1.54); low 1). Among those who participated in 1991/1992, risk behaviour increased between 1989 and 1991/1992 (reporting multiple casual partners rose from 55% to 64%; reporting inconsistent condom use with receptive anal sex from 58% to 71%). Using a predictive model which included self-reported serostatus in 1989, the HIV prevalence rate in 1991/1992 among all male responders to the 1989 questionnaire was estimated to be 5.3% (95% CI: 3.1 7.7%). In conclusion, unless initial response is improved, recruitment through a gay magazine may not allow reliable estimates of HIV prevalence in homosexual men. However, it can be useful at the national level for monitoring changes in prevalence and risk behaviour over time, geographical differences and risk factors for infection.

The Dutch famine birth cohort study: design, validation of exposure, and selected characteristics of subjects after 43 years follow-up.

A historical birth cohort study of 1116 women born between August 1 1944 and April 15 1946 in the Wilhelmina Gasthuis hospital in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, was set up to study the short- and long-term effects of a limited period of extreme nutritional deprivation in the winter of 1944-1945 in the Western Netherlands. The degree of food deprivation is evidenced by a dramatic decline in third trimester pregnancy weight gain and infant birthweight. All women were traced and 84% (683/813) of survivors presently resident in the Netherlands agreed to be interviewed in their homes. There were no differences in characteristics at birth between interviewed and uninterviewed survivors. The women who were interviewed had 1299 offspring and were able to recall birthweight of all of them. Additional birthweight information from hospital and well-baby clinic (WBC) records is available for about half of the offspring. Since the famine was imposed on the entire population of a well-defined area, whose opportunities to obtain food elsewhere were severely restricted, and the women from this hospital cohort were predominantly lower middle class, the relationship between fetal nutrition and subsequent health outcomes in this cohort is not likely to be confounded by unmeasured attributes related to social class. In addition, selective losses to follow-up could be excluded, which makes the Dutch famine birth cohort a valuable resource for future studies in perinatal epidemiology.