Prediction of complete remission and survival in acute myeloid leukemia using supervised machine learning.

Achievement of complete remission signifies a crucial milestone in the therapy of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) while refractory disease is associated with dismal outcomes. Hence, accurately identifying patients at risk is essential to tailor treatment concepts individually to disease biology. We used nine machine learning (ML) models to predict complete remission and 2-year overall survival in a large multicenter cohort of 1,383 AML patients who received intensive induction therapy. Clinical, laboratory, cytogenetic and molecular genetic data were incorporated and our results were validated on an external multicenter cohort. Our ML models autonomously selected predictive features including established markers of favorable or adverse risk as well as identifying markers of so-far controversial relevance. De novo AML, extramedullary AML, double-mutated CEBPA, mutations of CEBPA-bZIP, NPM1, FLT3-ITD, ASXL1, RUNX1, SF3B1, IKZF1, TP53, and U2AF1, t(8;21), inv(16)/t(16;16), del(5)/del(5q), del(17)/del(17p), normal or complex karyotypes, age and hemoglobin concentration at initial diagnosis were statistically significant markers predictive of complete remission, while t(8;21), del(5)/del(5q), inv(16)/t(16;16), del(17)/del(17p), double-mutated CEBPA, CEBPA-bZIP, NPM1, FLT3-ITD, DNMT3A, SF3B1, U2AF1, and TP53 mutations, age, white blood cell count, peripheral blast count, serum lactate dehydrogenase level and hemoglobin concentration at initial diagnosis as well as extramedullary manifestations were predictive for 2-year overall survival. For prediction of complete remission and 2-year overall survival areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranged between 0.77-0.86 and between 0.63-0.74, respectively in our test set, and between 0.71-0.80 and 0.65-0.75 in the external validation cohort. We demonstrated the feasibility of ML for risk stratification in AML as a model disease for hematologic neoplasms, using a scalable and reusable ML framework. Our study illustrates the clinical applicability of ML as a decision support system in hematology.

Isolated trisomy 13 defines a homogeneous AML subgroup with high frequency of mutations in spliceosome genes and poor prognosis.

In acute myeloid leukemia (AML), isolated trisomy 13 (AML+13) is a rare chromosomal abnormality whose prognostic relevance is poorly characterized. We analyzed the clinical course of 34 AML+13 patients enrolled in the German AMLCG-1999 and SAL trials and performed exome sequencing, targeted candidate gene sequencing and gene expression profiling. Relapse-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) of AML+13 patients were inferior compared to other ELN Intermediate-II patients (n=855) (median RFS, 7.8 vs 14.1 months, P = .006; median OS 9.3 vs. 14.8 months, P = .004). Besides the known high frequency of RUNX1 mutations (75%), we identified mutations in spliceosome components in 88%, including SRSF2 codon 95 mutations in 81%. Recurring mutations were detected in ASXL1 (44%) and BCOR (25%). Two patients carried mutations in CEBPZ, suggesting that CEBPZ is a novel recurrently mutated gene in AML. Gene expression analysis revealed a homogeneous expression profile including upregulation of FOXO1 and FLT3 and downregulation of SPRY2. This is the most comprehensive clinical and biological characterization of AML+13 to date, and reveals a striking clustering of lesions in a few genes, defining AML+13 as a genetically homogeneous subgroup with alterations in a few critical cellular pathways. Clinicaltrials.gov identifiers: AMLCG-1999: NCT00266136; AML96: NCT00180115; AML2003: NCT00180102; and AML60+: NCT00893373.

Exome sequencing identifies recurring FLT3 N676K mutations in core-binding factor leukemia.

The t(8;21) and inv(16)/t(16;16) rearrangements affecting the core-binding factors RUNX1 and CBFB, respectively, are found in 15% to 20% of adult de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cases and are associated with a favorable prognosis. Since the expression of the fusion genes CBFB/MYH11 or RUNX1/RUNX1T1 alone is not sufficient to cause leukemia, we performed exome sequencing of an AML sample with an inv(16) to identify mutations, which may collaborate with the CBFB/MYH11 fusion during leukemogenesis. We discovered an N676K mutation in the adenosine triphosphate (ATP)-binding domain (tyrosine kinase domain 1 [TKD1]) of the fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) gene. In a cohort of 84 de novo AML patients with a CBFB/MYH11 rearrangement and in 36 patients with a RUNX1/RUNX1T1 rearrangement, the FLT3 N676K mutation was identified in 5 and 1 patients, respectively (5 [6%] of 84; 1 [3%] of 36). The FLT3-N676K mutant alone leads to factor-independent growth in Ba/F3 cells and, together with a concurrent FLT3-ITD (internal tandem duplication), confers resistance to the FLT3 protein tyrosine kinase inhibitors (PTKIs) PKC412 and AC220. Gene expression analysis of AML patients with CBFB/MYH11 rearrangement and FLT3 N676K mutation showed a trend toward a specific expression profile. Ours is the first report of recurring FLT3 N676 mutations in core-binding factor (CBF) leukemias and suggests a defined subgroup of CBF leukemias.

GATA2 zinc finger 1 mutations associated with biallelic CEBPA mutations define a unique genetic entity of acute myeloid leukemia.

Cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) with biallelic CEBPA gene mutations (biCEPBA) represents a distinct disease entity with a favorable clinical outcome. So far, it is not known whether other genetic alterations cooperate with biCEBPA mutations during leukemogenesis. To identify additional mutations, we performed whole exome sequencing of 5 biCEBPA patients and detected somatic GATA2 zinc finger 1 (ZF1) mutations in 2 of 5 cases. Both GATA2 and CEBPA are transcription factors crucial for hematopoietic development. Inherited or acquired mutations in both genes have been associated with leukemogenesis. Further mutational screening detected novel GATA2 ZF1 mutations in 13 of 33 biCEBPA-positive CN-AML patients (13/33, 39.4%). No GATA2 mutations were found in 38 CN-AML patients with a monoallelic CEBPA mutation and in 89 CN-AML patients with wild-type CEBPA status. The presence of additional GATA2 mutations (n=10) did not significantly influence the clinical outcome of 26 biCEBPA-positive patients. In reporter gene assays, all tested GATA2 ZF1 mutants showed reduced capacity to enhance CEBPA-mediated activation of transcription, suggesting that the GATA2 ZF1 mutations may collaborate with biCEPBA mutations to deregulate target genes during malignant transformation. We thus provide evidence for a genetically distinct subgroup of CN-AML. The German AML cooperative group trials 1999 and 2008 are registered with the identifiers NCT00266136 and NCT01382147 at www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Prognostic impact of CEBPA mutational subgroups in adult AML.

Despite recent refinements in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of CEBPA mutations in AML, several questions remain open, i.e. implications of different types of basic region leucin zipper (bZIP) mutations, the role of co-mutations and the allelic state. Using pooled primary data analysis on 1010 CEBPA-mutant adult AML patients, a comparison was performed taking into account the type of mutation (bZIP: either typical in-frame insertion/deletion (InDel) mutations (bZIPInDel), frameshift InDel or nonsense mutations inducing translational stop (bZIPSTOP) or single base-pair missense alterations (bZIPms), and transcription activation domain (TAD) mutations) and the allelic state (single (smCEBPA) vs. double mutant (dmCEBPA)). Only bZIPInDel patients had significantly higher rates of complete remission and longer relapse free and overall survival (OS) compared with all other CEBPA-mutant subgroups. Moreover, co-mutations in bZIPInDel patients (e.g. GATA2, FLT3, WT1 as well as ELN2022 adverse risk aberrations) had no independent impact on OS, whereas in non-bZIPInDel patients, grouping according to ELN2022 recommendations added significant prognostic information. In conclusion, these results demonstrate bZIPInDel mutations to be the major independent determinant of outcome in CEBPA-mutant AML, thereby refining current classifications according to WHO (including all dmCEBPA and smCEBPA bZIP) as well as ELN2022 and ICC recommendations (including CEBPA bZIPms).

Sex-associated differences in frequencies and prognostic impact of recurrent genetic alterations in adult acute myeloid leukemia (Alliance, AMLCG).

Clinical outcome of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with demographic and genetic features. Although the associations of acquired genetic alterations with patients' sex have been recently analyzed, their impact on outcome of female and male patients has not yet been comprehensively assessed. We performed mutational profiling, cytogenetic and outcome analyses in 1726 adults with AML (749 female and 977 male) treated on frontline Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology protocols. A validation cohort comprised 465 women and 489 men treated on frontline protocols of the German AML Cooperative Group. Compared with men, women more often had normal karyotype, FLT3-ITD, DNMT3A, NPM1 and WT1 mutations and less often complex karyotype, ASXL1, SRSF2, U2AF1, RUNX1, or KIT mutations. More women were in the 2022 European LeukemiaNet intermediate-risk group and more men in adverse-risk group. We found sex differences in co-occurring mutation patterns and prognostic impact of select genetic alterations. The mutation-associated splicing events and gene-expression profiles also differed between sexes. In patients aged <60 years, SF3B1 mutations were male-specific adverse outcome prognosticators. We conclude that sex differences in AML-associated genetic alterations and mutation-specific differential splicing events highlight the importance of patients' sex in analyses of AML biology and prognostication.

Validation and refinement of the 2022 European LeukemiaNet genetic risk stratification of acute myeloid leukemia.

The revised 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) AML risk stratification system requires validation in large, homogeneously treated cohorts. We studied 1118 newly diagnosed AML patients (median age, 58 years; range, 18-86 years) who received cytarabine-based induction chemotherapy between 1999 and 2012 and compared ELN-2022 to the previous ELN-2017 risk classification. Key findings were validated in a cohort of 1160 mostly younger patients. ELN-2022 reclassified 15% of patients, 3% into more favorable, and 12% into more adverse risk groups. This was mainly driven by patients reclassified from intermediate- to adverse-risk based on additional myelodysplasia-related mutations being included as adverse-risk markers. These patients (n = 79) had significantly better outcomes than patients with other adverse-risk genotypes (5-year OS, 26% vs. 12%) and resembled the remaining intermediate-risk group. Overall, time-dependent ROC curves and Harrel's C-index controlling for age, sex, and AML type (de novo vs. sAML/tAML) show slightly worse prognostic discrimination of ELN-2022 compared to ELN-2017 for OS. Further refinement of ELN-2022 without including additional genetic markers is possible, in particular by recognizing TP53-mutated patients with complex karyotypes as "very adverse". In summary, the ELN-2022 risk classification identifies a larger group of adverse-risk patients at the cost of slightly reduced prognostic accuracy compared to ELN-2017.

Unsupervised meta-clustering identifies risk clusters in acute myeloid leukemia based on clinical and genetic profiles.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly large and complex biomedical data sets challenge conventional hypothesis-driven analytical approaches, however, data-driven unsupervised learning can detect inherent patterns in such data sets. METHODS: While unsupervised analysis in the medical literature commonly only utilizes a single clustering algorithm for a given data set, we developed a large-scale model with 605 different combinations of target dimensionalities as well as transformation and clustering algorithms and subsequent meta-clustering of individual results. With this model, we investigated a large cohort of 1383 patients from 59 centers in Germany with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia for whom 212 clinical, laboratory, cytogenetic and molecular genetic parameters were available. RESULTS: Unsupervised learning identifies four distinct patient clusters, and statistical analysis shows significant differences in rate of complete remissions, event-free, relapse-free and overall survival between the four clusters. In comparison to the standard-of-care hypothesis-driven European Leukemia Net (ELN2017) risk stratification model, we find all three ELN2017 risk categories being represented in all four clusters in varying proportions indicating unappreciated complexity of AML biology in current established risk stratification models. Further, by using assigned clusters as labels we subsequently train a supervised model to validate cluster assignments on a large external multicenter cohort of 664 intensively treated AML patients. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic data-driven models are likely more suitable for risk stratification in the context of increasingly complex medical data than rigid hypothesis-driven models to allow for a more personalized treatment allocation and gain novel insights into disease biology.

There are various ways in which clinicians can predict the risk of disease progression in patients with leukemia, helping them to treat the patients accordingly. However, these approaches are usually designed by human experts and might not fully capture the complexity of a patient's disease. Here, with a large cohort of patients with acute myeloid leukemia, we design an unsupervised machine learning model ­ a type of computer model that learns from patterns in data without human input­to separate these patients into subgroups according to risk. We identify four distinct groups which differ with regards to patient genetics, laboratory values, and clinical characteristics. These groups have differences in response to treatment and patient survival, and we validate our findings in another dataset. Our approach might help clinicians to better predict outcomes in patients with leukemia and make decisions on treatment.

RUNX1 mutations in cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia are associated with a poor prognosis and up-regulation of lymphoid genes.

BACKGROUND: The RUNX1 (AML1) gene is a frequent mutational target in myelodysplastic syndromes and acute myeloid leukemia. Previous studies suggested that RUNX1 mutations may have pathological and prognostic implications. DESIGN AND METHODS: We screened 93 patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia for RUNX1 mutations by capillary sequencing of genomic DNA. Mutation status was then correlated with clinical data and gene expression profiles. RESULTS: We found that 15 out of 93 (16.1%) patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia had RUNX1 mutations. Seventy-three patients were enrolled in the AMLCG-99 trial and carried ten RUNX1 mutations (13.7%). Among these 73 patients RUNX1 mutations were significantly associated with older age, male sex, absence of NPM1 mutations and presence of MLL-partial tandem duplications. Moreover, RUNX1-mutated patients had a lower complete remission rate (30% versus 73% P=0.01), lower relapse-free survival rate (3-year relapse-free survival 0% versus 30.4%; P=0.002) and lower overall survival rate (3-year overall survival 0% versus 34.4%; P<0.001) than patients with wild-type RUNX1. RUNX1 mutations remained associated with shorter overall survival in a multivariate model including age and the European Leukemia Net acute myeloid leukemia genetic classification as covariates. Patients with RUNX1 mutations showed a unique gene expression pattern with differential expression of 85 genes. The most prominently up-regulated genes in patients with RUNX1-mutated cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia include lymphoid regulators such as HOP homeobox (HOPX), deoxynucleotidyltransferase (DNTT, terminal) and B-cell linker (BLNK), indicating lineage infidelity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings firmly establish that RUNX1 mutations are a marker of poor prognosis and provide insights into the pathogenesis of RUNX1 mutation-positive acute myeloid leukemia.

Age-dependent frequencies of NPM1 mutations and FLT3-ITD in patients with normal karyotype AML (NK-AML).

Prognosis of AML in elderly patients is poor due to adverse patient characteristics and comorbidities. In addition, disease-associated parameters reveal differences between older and younger patients with AML. Survival in normal karyotype AML (NK-AML) is influenced by different clinical and molecular markers. The aim of this work was to investigate the frequencies of molecular markers in patients with NK-AML with a focus on NPM1 mutations and FLT3-ITD in different age groups. In the present study, we analyzed the frequencies of mutations of NPM1 and FLT3-ITD in a cohort of 1,321 adult patients and 148 children with AML treated within the AMLCG99, the AML98, and AML04 trials and their distribution in different age groups. Additionally, the frequencies of mutations in CEBPA genes, FLT3-TKD, and MLL-PTD were analyzed in the cohort with NK-AML (n = 729). Our data show that the presence of mutations of NPM1 (from 60% to 40%) and FLT3-ITD (from 50% to 20%) significantly decreased with age in adult AML. Consequently, the proportion of NPM1-/FLT3-ITD- patients increased with age. The decreasing frequency of NPM1 mutations in elderly patients was paralleled by a reduced complete remission (CR) rate in the elderly of 55% compared to 80% in the younger patients. By contrast, the frequencies of other gene mutations, like FLT3-TKD and MLL-PTD, and mutations in CEBPA were not age-dependent. The decreasing frequency of the favorable NPM1 mutations with increasing age may partially explain the worse outcome in the elderly patients. Furthermore, the increasing amount of elderly patients without NPM1 mutations or FLT3-ITD suggests that other molecular and clinical risk factors may influence prognosis in this age group.

NPM1 but not FLT3-ITD mutations predict early blast cell clearance and CR rate in patients with normal karyotype AML (NK-AML) or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS).

Mutations in the NPM1 gene represent the most frequent genetic alterations in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and are associated with a favorable outcome. In 690 normal karyotype (NK) AML patients the complete remission rates (CRs) and the percentage of patients with adequate in vivo blast cell reduction 1 week after the end of the first induction cycle were significantly higher in NPM1(+) (75% and 80%, respectively) than in NPM1(-) (57% and 57%, respectively) patients, but were unaffected by the FLT3-ITD status. Multivariate analyses revealed the presence of a NPM1 mutation as an independent positive prognostic factor for the achievement of an adequate day-16 blast clearance and a CR. In conclusion, NPM1(+) blast cells show a high in vivo sensitivity toward induction chemotherapy irrespective of the FLT3-ITD mutation status. These findings provide insight into the pathophysiology and help to understand the favorable clinical outcome of patients with NPM1(+) AML.

Clinical presentation and differential splicing of SRSF2, U2AF1 and SF3B1 mutations in patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

Previous studies demonstrated that splicing factor mutations are recurrent events in hematopoietic malignancies with both clinical and functional implications. However, their aberrant splicing patterns in acute myeloid leukemia remain largely unexplored. In this study, we characterized mutations in SRSF2, U2AF1, and SF3B1, the most commonly mutated splicing factors. In our clinical analysis of 2678 patients, splicing factor mutations showed inferior relapse-free and overall survival, however, these mutations did not represent independent prognostic markers. RNA-sequencing of 246 and independent validation in 177 patients revealed an isoform expression profile which is highly characteristic for each individual mutation, with several isoforms showing a strong dysregulation. By establishing a custom differential splice junction usage pipeline, we accurately detected aberrant splicing in splicing factor mutated samples. A large proportion of differentially used junctions were novel, including several junctions in leukemia-associated genes. In SRSF2(P95H) mutants, we further explored the possibility of a cascading effect through the dysregulation of the splicing pathway. Furthermore, we observed a validated impact on overall survival for two junctions overused in SRSF2(P95H) mutants. We conclude that splicing factor mutations do not represent independent prognostic markers. However, they do have genome-wide consequences on gene splicing leading to dysregulated isoform expression of several genes.

Genetic heterogeneity of cytogenetically normal AML with mutations of CEBPA.

Biallelic mutations of the CCAAT/enhancer binding protein α (CEBPA) gene define a distinct genetic entity of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with favorable prognosis. The presence of GATA2 and CSF3R mutations that are specifically associated with this subgroup but not mutated in all samples suggests a genetic heterogeneity of biCEBPA-mutated AML. We characterized the mutational landscape of CEBPA-mutated cytogenetically normal AML by targeted amplicon resequencing. We analyzed 48 biallelically mutated CEBPA (biCEBPA), 32 monoallelically mutated CEBPA (moCEBPA), and 287 wild-type CEBPA (wtCEBPA) patient samples from German AML Cooperative Group studies or registry. Targeted sequencing of 42 genes revealed that moCEBPA patients had significantly more additional mutations and additional mutated genes than biCEBPA patients. Within the group of biCEBPA patients, we identified 2 genetic subgroups defined by the presence or absence of mutations in chromatin/DNA modifiers (C), cohesin complex (C), and splicing (S) genes: biCEBPA CCSpos (25/48 [52%]) and biCEBPA CCSneg (23/48 [48%]). Equivalent subgroups were identified in 51 biCEBPA patients from the Cancer Genome Project. Patients in the biCEBPA CCSpos group were significantly older and had poorer overall survival and lower complete remission rates following intensive chemotherapy regimens compared with patients in the biCEBPA CCSneg group. Patients with available remission samples from the biCEBPA CCSpos group cleared the biCEBPA mutations, but most had persisting CCS mutations in complete remission, suggesting the presence of a preleukemic clone. In conclusion, CCS mutations define a distinct biological subgroup of biCEBPA AML that might refine prognostic classification of AML. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00266136 and NCT01382147.

Long-term follow-up of cytogenetically normal CEBPA-mutated AML.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyze the long-term survival of AML patients with CEBPA mutations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We investigated 88 AML patients with a median age of 61 years and (1) cytogenetically normal AML (CN-AML), (2) monoallelic (moCEBPA) or biallelic (biCEBPA) CEBPA mutation, and (3) intensive induction treatment. 60/88 patients have been described previously with a shorter follow-up. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 9.8 years (95% CI: 9.4-10.1 years) compared to 3.2 and 5.2 years in our former analyses. Patients with biCEBPA mutations survived significantly longer compared to those with moCEBPA (median overall survival (OS) 9.6 years vs. 1.7 years, p = 0.008). Patients ≤ 60 years and biCEBPA mutations showed a favorable prognosis with a 10-year OS rate of 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this long-term observation we confirmed the favorable prognostic outcome of patients with biCEBPA mutations compared to moCEBPA-mutated CN-AML. The high probability of OS (81%) in younger patients is helpful to guide intensity of postremission therapy.

Activating FLT3 mutants show distinct gain-of-function phenotypes in vitro and a characteristic signaling pathway profile associated with prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia.

About 30% of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) harbour mutations of the receptor tyrosine kinase FLT3, mostly internal tandem duplications (ITD) and point mutations of the second tyrosine kinase domain (TKD). It was the aim of this study to comprehensively analyze clinical and functional properties of various FLT3 mutants. In 672 normal karyotype AML patients FLT3-ITD, but not FLT3-TKD mutations were associated with a worse relapse free and overall survival in multivariate analysis. In paired diagnosis-relapse samples FLT3-ITD showed higher stability (70%) compared to FLT3-TKD (30%). In vitro, FLT3-ITD induced a strong activating phenotype in Ba/F3 cells. In contrast, FLT3-TKD mutations and other point mutations--including two novel mutations--showed a weaker but clear gain-of-function phenotype with gradual increase in proliferation and protection from apoptosis. The pro-proliferative capacity of the investigated FLT3 mutants was associated with cell surface expression and tyrosine 591 phosphorylation of the FLT3 receptor. Western blot experiments revealed STAT5 activation only in FLT3-ITD positive cell lines, in contrast to FLT3-non-ITD mutants, which displayed an enhanced signal of AKT and MAPK activation. Gene expression analysis revealed distinct difference between FLT3-ITD and FLT3-TKD for STAT5 target gene expression as well as deregulation of SOCS2, ENPP2, PRUNE2 and ART3. FLT3-ITD and FLT3 point mutations show a gain-of-function phenotype with distinct signalling properties in vitro. Although poor prognosis in AML is only associated with FLT3-ITD, all activating FLT3 mutations can contribute to leukemogenesis and are thus potential targets for therapeutic interventions.

The NPM1 mutation type has no impact on survival in cytogenetically normal AML.

NPM1 mutations represent frequent genetic alterations in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) associated with a favorable prognosis. Different types of NPM1 mutations have been described. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the relevance of different NPM1 mutation types with regard to clinical outcome. Our analyses were based on 349 NPM1-mutated AML patients treated in the AMLCG99 trial. Complete remission rates, overall survival and relapse-free survival were not significantly different between patients with NPM1 type A or rare type mutations. The NPM1 mutation type does not seem to play a role in risk stratification of cytogenetically normal AML.

Allogeneic transplantation versus chemotherapy as postremission therapy for acute myeloid leukemia: a prospective matched pairs analysis.

PURPOSE: The majority of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who achieve complete remission (CR) relapse with conventional postremission chemotherapy. Allogeneic stem-cell transplantation (alloSCT) might improve survival at the expense of increased toxicity. It remains unknown for which patients alloSCT is preferable. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared the outcome of 185 matched pairs of a large multicenter clinical trial (AMLCG99). Patients younger than 60 years who underwent alloSCT in first remission (CR1) were matched to patients who received conventional postremission therapy. The main matching criteria were AML type, cytogenetic risk group, patient age, and time in first CR. RESULTS: In the overall pairwise compared AML population, the projected 7-year overall survival (OS) rate was 58% for the alloSCT and 46% for the conventional postremission treatment group (P = .037; log-rank test). Relapse-free survival (RFS) was 52% in the alloSCT group compared with 33% in the control group (P < .001). OS was significantly better for alloSCT in patient subgroups with nonfavorable chromosomal aberrations, patients older than 45 years, and patients with secondary AML or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome. For the entire patient cohort, postremission therapy was an independent factor for OS (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.89 for alloSCT v conventional chemotherapy), among age, cytogenetics, and bone marrow blasts after the first induction cycle. CONCLUSION: AlloSCT is the most potent postremission therapy for AML and is particularly active for patients 45 to 59 years of age and/or those with high-risk cytogenetics.

Combined molecular and clinical prognostic index for relapse and survival in cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia.

PURPOSE: Cytogenetically normal (CN) acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the largest and most heterogeneous cytogenetic AML subgroup. For the practicing clinician, it is difficult to summarize the prognostic information of the growing number of clinical and molecular markers. Our purpose was to develop a widely applicable prognostic model by combining well-established pretreatment patient and disease characteristics. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two prognostic indices for CN-AML (PINA), one regarding overall survival (OS; PINAOS) and the other regarding relapse-free survival (RFS; PINARFS), were derived from data of 572 patients with CN-AML treated within the AML Cooperative Group 99 study (www.aml-score.org). RESULTS: On the basis of age (median, 60 years; range, 17 to 85 years), performance status, WBC count, and mutation status of NPM1, CEBPA, and FLT3-internal tandem duplication, patients were classified into the following three risk groups according to PINAOS and PINARFS: 29% of all patients and 32% of 381 responding patients had low-risk disease (5-year OS, 74%; 5-year RFS, 55%); 56% of all patients and 39% of responding patients had intermediate-risk disease (5-year OS, 28%; 5-year RFS, 27%), and 15% of all patients and 29% of responding patients had high-risk disease (5-year OS, 3%; 5-year RFS, 5%), respectively. PINAOS and PINARFS stratified outcome within European LeukemiaNet genetic groups. Both indices were confirmed on independent data from Cancer and Leukemia Group B/Alliance trials. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated, to our knowledge, the first prognostic indices specifically designed for adult patients of all ages with CN-AML that combine well-established molecular and clinical variables and that are easily applicable in routine clinical care. The integration of both clinical and molecular markers could provide a basis for individualized patient care through risk-adapted therapy of CN-AML.