Association of endoscopic biopsy sampling methods with detection of precursor lesions of gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The yield of various endoscopic biopsy sampling methods for detection of precursor lesions of noncardia gastric cancer in a real-world setting remains unclear. Our objective was to evaluate the association of endoscopic biopsy sampling methods with detection of gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) and gastric dysplasia (GD). METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of adult patients who underwent EGD with biopsy sampling between 2010 and 2021 in a racially and ethnically diverse U.S. healthcare system. Cases were patients with histopathologic findings of GIM and/or GD. Control subjects were matched 1:1 by age, procedure date, and medical center. We compared the detection of GIM and GD using 4 different biopsy sampling methods: unspecified, specified stomach location, 2+2, and the Sydney protocol. Additionally, we assessed trends in use of sampling methods (Cochrane-Armitage) and identified patient and endoscopist factors associated with their use (logistic regression). RESULTS: We identified 20,938 GIM and 455 GD matched pairs. A greater proportion of GIM cases were detected using 2+2 (31.3% vs 25.3%, P < .0001) and the Sydney protocol (9.1% vs 1.0%, P < .0001) compared with control subjects. Similarly, a greater proportion of GD cases were detected using the Sydney protocol (15.6% vs .4%, P < .0001). We observed an increasing trend in the use of the Sydney protocol during the study period (3.8%-16.1% in cases, P < .0001; 1%-1.1% in control subjects, P = .005). Male and Asian American patients were more likely to undergo 2+2 or the Sydney protocol, whereas female and Hispanic endoscopists were more likely to perform sampling using these protocols. CONCLUSIONS: The application of the Sydney protocol is associated with an increased detection of precursor lesions of gastric cancer in routine clinical practice.

Derivation and External Validation of Machine Learning-Based Model for Detection of Pancreatic Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: There is currently no widely accepted approach to screening for pancreatic cancer (PC). We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the most common form of PC, across 2 health systems using electronic health records. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study consisted of patients aged 50-84 years having at least 1 clinic-based visit over a 10-year study period at Kaiser Permanente Southern California (model training, internal validation) and the Veterans Affairs (VA, external testing). Random survival forests models were built to identify the most relevant predictors from >500 variables and to predict risk of PDAC within 18 months of cohort entry. RESULTS: The Kaiser Permanente Southern California cohort consisted of 1.8 million patients (mean age 61.6) with 1,792 PDAC cases. The 18-month incidence rate of PDAC was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.80)/1,000 person-years. The final main model contained age, abdominal pain, weight change, HbA1c, and alanine transaminase change (c-index: mean = 0.77, SD = 0.02; calibration test: P value 0.4, SD 0.3). The final early detection model comprised the same features as those selected by the main model except for abdominal pain (c-index: 0.77 and SD 0.4; calibration test: P value 0.3 and SD 0.3). The VA testing cohort consisted of 2.7 million patients (mean age 66.1) with an 18-month incidence rate of 1.27 (1.23-1.30)/1,000 person-years. The recalibrated main and early detection models based on VA testing data sets achieved a mean c-index of 0.71 (SD 0.002) and 0.68 (SD 0.003), respectively. DISCUSSION: Using widely available parameters in electronic health records, we developed and externally validated parsimonious machine learning-based models for detection of PC. These models may be suitable for real-time clinical application.

Machine learning versus regression for prediction of sporadic pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is currently no widely accepted approach to identify patients at increased risk for sporadic pancreatic cancer (PC). We aimed to compare the performance of two machine-learning models with a regression-based model in predicting pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the most common form of PC. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study consisted of patients 50-84 years of age enrolled in either Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC, model training, internal validation) or the Veterans Affairs (VA, external testing) between 2008 and 2017. The performance of random survival forests (RSF) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) models were compared to that of COX proportional hazards regression (COX). Heterogeneity of the three models were assessed. RESULTS: The KPSC and the VA cohorts consisted of 1.8 and 2.7 million patients with 1792 and 4582 incident PDAC cases within 18 months, respectively. Predictors selected into all three models included age, abdominal pain, weight change, and glycated hemoglobin (A1c). Additionally, RSF selected change in alanine transaminase (ALT), whereas the XGB and COX selected the rate of change in ALT. The COX model appeared to have lower AUC (KPSC: 0.737, 95% CI 0.710-0.764; VA: 0.706, 0.699-0.714), compared to those of RSF (KPSC: 0.767, 0.744-0.791; VA: 0.731, 0.724-0.739) and XGB (KPSC: 0.779, 0.755-0.802; VA: 0.742, 0.735-0.750). Among patients with top 5% predicted risk from all three models (N = 29,663), 117 developed PDAC, of which RSF, XGB and COX captured 84 (9 unique), 87 (4 unique), 87 (19 unique) cases, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The three models complement each other, but each has unique contributions.

Risk Prediction of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients With Recent-onset Hyperglycemia: A Machine-learning Approach.

BACKGROUND: New-onset diabetes (NOD) has been suggested as an early indicator of pancreatic cancer. However, the definition of NOD by the American Diabetes Association requires 2 simultaneous or consecutive elevated glycemic measures. We aimed to apply a machine-learning approach using electronic health records to predict the risk in patients with recent-onset hyperglycemia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, health plan enrollees 50 to 84 years of age who had an elevated (6.5%+) glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) tested in January 2010 to September 2018 with recent-onset hyperglycemia were identified. A total of 102 potential predictors were extracted. Ten imputation datasets were generated to handle missing data. The random survival forests approach was used to develop and validate risk models. Performance was evaluated by c -index, calibration plot, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 109,266 patients (mean age: 63.6 y). The 3-year incidence rate was 1.4 (95% confidence interval: 1.3-1.6)/1000 person-years of follow-up. The 3 models containing age, weight change in 1 year, HbA1c, and 1 of the 3 variables (HbA1c change in 1 y, HbA1c in the prior 6 mo, or HbA1c in the prior 18 mo) appeared most often out of the 50 training samples. The c -indexes were in the range of 0.81 to 0.82. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value in patients who had the top 20% of the predicted risks were 56% to 60%, 80%, and 2.5% to 2.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Targeting evaluation at the point of recent hyperglycemia based on elevated HbA1c could offer an opportunity to identify pancreatic cancer early and possibly impact survival in cancer patients.

The Modified Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System Shows Distinct Trajectories in Acute Pancreatitis: An International Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aims of this study were to: (1) assess the performance of the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) in a large intercontinental cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP); and (2) investigate whether a modified PASS (mPASS) yields a similar predictive accuracy and produces distinct early trajectories between severity subgroups. METHODS: Data was prospectively collected through the Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies In Clinical Experience (APPRENTICE) consortium (2015-2018) involving 22 centers from 4 continents. AP severity was categorized per the revised Atlanta classification. PASS trajectories were compared between the three severity groups using the generalized estimating equations model. Four mPASS models were generated by modifying the morphine equivalent dose (MED), and their trajectories were compared. RESULTS: A total of 1393 subjects were enrolled (median age, 49 years; 51% males). The study cohort included 950 mild (68.2%), 315 (22.6%) moderately severe, and 128 (9.2%) severe AP. Mild cases had the lowest PASS at each study time point (all P < .001). A subset of patients with outlier admission PASS values was identified. In the outlier group, 70% of the PASS variation was attributed to the MED, and 66% of these patients were from the United States centers. Among the 4 modified models, the mPASS-1 (excluding MED from PASS) demonstrated high performance in predicting severe AP with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (vs area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.83 in conventional PASS) and produced distinct trajectories with distinct slopes between severity subgroups (all P < .001). CONCLUSION: We propose a modified model by removing the MED component, which is easier to calculate, predicts accurately severe AP, and maintains significantly distinct early trajectories.

The relationship between pre-existing diabetes mellitus and the severity of acute pancreatitis: Report from a large international registry.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The relationship between pre-existing diabetes mellitus (DM) and acute pancreatitis (AP) severity has not been established. We assessed the impact of pre-existing DM on AP severity in an international, prospectively ascertained registry. METHODS: APPRENTICE registry prospectively enrolled 1543 AP patients from 22 centers across 4 continents (8 US, 6 Europe, 5 Latin America, 3 India) between 2015 and 2018, and collected detailed clinical information. Pre-existing DM was defined a diagnosis of DM prior to AP admission. The primary outcome was AP severity defined by the Revised Atlanta Classification (RAC). Secondary outcomes were development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or intensive care unit (ICU) admission. RESULTS: Pre-existing DM was present in 270 (17.5%) AP patients, of whom 252 (93.3%) had type 2 DM. Patients with pre-existing DM were significantly (p < 0.05) older (55.8 ± 16 vs. 48.3 ± 18.7 years), more likely to be overweight (BMI 29.5 ± 7 vs. 27.2 ± 6.2), have hypertriglyceridemia as the etiology (15% vs. 2%) and prior AP (33 vs. 24%). Mild, moderate, and severe AP were noted in 66%, 23%, and 11% of patients, respectively. On multivariable analysis, pre-existing DM did not significantly impact AP severity assessed by the RAC (moderate-severe vs. mild AP, OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.63-1.18; severe vs. mild-moderate AP, OR = 1.05, 95% CI, 0.67-1.63), development of SIRS, or the need for ICU admission. No interaction was noted between DM status and continent. CONCLUSION: About one in 5 patients with AP have pre-existing DM. Once confounding risk factors are considered, pre-existing DM per se is not a risk factor for severe AP.

Diabetes and pancreatic cancer: recent insights with implications for early diagnosis, treatment and prevention.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Recent insights into the complex relationship between diabetes and pancreatic cancer have the potential to help direct future approaches to early detection, treatment and prevention. RECENT FINDINGS: Insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia have been identified as factors that relate to risk of pancreatic cancer among patients with long-standing diabetes. In contrast, weight loss in the setting of new-onset diabetes can help identify patients at an increased risk for harbouring pancreatic-cancer related disturbances in glucose metabolism. Insights into the implications of poor glycaemic control in patients undergoing resection for pancreatic cancer have the potential to improve both surgical and oncologic outcomes. Finally, among antidiabetic medications, metformin continues to be evaluated as a potential adjunctive therapeutic agent, although recent evidence supports the safety of incretins with respect to pancreatic cancer. SUMMARY: This review highlights recent developments in these areas with an emphasis on opportunities for improved early diagnosis, treatment and prevention in pancreatic cancer.

Dynamic changes in the pancreatitis activity scoring system during hospital course in a multicenter, prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The primary aim was to validate the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) in a multicenter prospectively ascertained acute pancreatitis (AP) cohort. Second, we investigated the association of early PASS trajectories with disease severity and length of hospital stay (LOS). METHODS: Data were prospectively collected through the APPRENTICE consortium (2015-2018). AP severity was categorized based on revised Atlanta classification. Delta PASS (ΔPASS) was calculated by subtracting activity score from baseline value. PASS trajectories were compared between severity subsets. Subsequently, the cohort was subdivided into three LOS subgroups as short (S-LOS): 2-3 days; intermediate (I-LOS): 3-7 days; and long (L-LOS): ≥7 days. The generalized estimating equations model was implemented to compare PASS trajectories. RESULTS: There were 434 subjects analyzed including 322 (74%) mild, 86 (20%) moderately severe, and 26 (6%) severe AP. Severe AP subjects had the highest activity levels and the slowest rate of decline in activity (P = 0.039). Focusing on mild AP, L-LOS subjects (34%) had 28 points per day slower decline; whereas, S-LOS group (13%) showed 34 points per day sharper decrease compared with I-LOS (53%; P < 0.001). We noticed an outlier subset with a median admission-PASS of 466 compared with 140 in the rest. Morphine equivalent dose constituted 80% of the total PASS in the outliers (median morphine equivalent dose score = 392), compared with only 25% in normal-range subjects (score = 33, P value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted that PASS can quantify AP activity. Significant differences in PASS trajectories were found both in revised Atlanta classification severity and LOS groups, which can be harnessed in AP monitoring/management (ClincialTrials.gov number, NCT03075618).

Validation of the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer Model in a Diverse and Integrated Healthcare Setting.

BACKGROUND: The risk of pancreatic cancer is elevated among people with new-onset diabetes (NOD). Based on Rochester Epidemiology Project Data, the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (END-PAC) model was developed and validated. AIMS: We validated the END-PAC model in a cohort of patients with NOD using retrospectively collected data from a large integrated health maintenance organization. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of patients between 50 and 84 years of age meeting the criteria for NOD in 2010-2014 was identified. Each patient was assigned a risk score (< 1: low risk; 1-2: intermediate risk; ≥ 3: high risk) based on the values of the predictors specified in the END-PAC model. Patients who developed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) within 3 years were identified using the Cancer Registry and California State Death files. Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were estimated. RESULTS: Out of the 13,947 NOD patients who were assigned a risk score, 99 developed PDAC in 3 years (0.7%). Of the 3038 patients who had a high risk, 62 (2.0%) developed PDAC in 3 years. The risk increased to 3.0% in white patients with a high risk. The AUC was 0.75. At the 3+ threshold, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 62.6%, 78.5%, 2.0%, and 99.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It is critical that prediction models are validated before they are implemented in various populations and clinical settings. More efforts are needed to develop screening strategies most appropriate for patients with NOD in real-world settings.

New-Onset Diabetes, Longitudinal Trends in Metabolic Markers, and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in a Heterogeneous Population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Observational studies of predominantly white populations have found new-onset diabetes to be associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. We sought to determine whether this relationship applies to other races or ethnicities and to identify metabolic profiles associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of Asian, black, Hispanic and white patients from Kaiser Permanente Southern California from 2006 through 2016 (n = 1,499,627). Patients with diabetes were identified based on glucose and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurements. We used Cox regression to assess the relationship between diabetes status and duration and pancreatic cancer. For patients with recent diagnoses of diabetes (1 year or less) we compared longitudinal changes in glucose, HbA1c, and weight, from time of diabetes diagnosis through 3 years prior to the diagnosis, in patients with vs without pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: We identified 2,002 incident cases of pancreatic cancer from nearly 7.5 million person-years of follow-up. Compared to patients without diabetes, individuals who received a recent diagnosis of diabetes had an almost 7-fold increase in risk of pancreatic cancer (relative risk, 6.91; 95% CI, 5.76-8.30). Among patients with a recent diagnosis of diabetes, those who developed pancreatic cancer had more rapid increases in levels of glucose (Δslope: cases, 37.47 mg/dL vs non-cases, 27.68 mg/dL) and HbA1c (Δslope: cases, 1.39% vs non-cases, 0.86%) in the month preceding the diagnosis of diabetes, and subtle weight loss in the prior years (slope: cases -0.18 kg/interval vs non-cases 0.33 kg/interval). These longitudinal changes in markers of metabolism were stronger for specific race and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: In a study of a large ethnically diverse population, we found risk of pancreatic cancer to be increased among patients with a diagnosis of diabetes in the past year among different races and ethnicities. Weight loss and rapid development of poor glycemic control were associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in multiple races.

Worldwide Variations in Demographics, Management, and Outcomes of Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few studies have compared regional differences in acute pancreatitis. We analyzed data from an international registry of patients with acute pancreatitis to evaluate geographic variations in patient characteristics, management, and outcomes. METHODS: We collected data from the APPRENTICE registry of patients with acute pancreatitis, which obtains information from patients in Europe (6 centers), India (3 centers), Latin America (5 centers), and North America (8 centers) using standardized questionnaires. Our final analysis included 1612 patients with acute pancreatitis (median age, 49 years; 53% male, 62% white) enrolled from August 2015 through January 2018. RESULTS: Biliary (45%) and alcoholic acute pancreatitis (21%) were the most common etiologies. Based on the revised Atlanta classification, 65% of patients developed mild disease, 23% moderate, and 12% severe. The mean age of patients in Europe (58 years) was older than mean age for all 4 regions (46 years) and a higher proportion of patients in Europe had comorbid conditions (73% vs 50% overall). The predominant etiology of acute pancreatitis in Latin America was biliary (78%), whereas alcohol-associated pancreatitis accounted for the highest proportion of acute pancreatitis cases in India (45%). Pain was managed with opioid analgesics in 93% of patients in North America versus 27% of patients in the other 3 regions. Cholecystectomies were performed at the time of hospital admission for most patients in Latin America (60% vs 15% overall). A higher proportion of European patients with severe acute pancreatitis died during the original hospital stay (44%) compared with the other 3 regions (15%). CONCLUSIONS: We found significant variation in demographics, etiologies, management practices, and outcomes of acute pancreatitis worldwide. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT03075618.

Clinical features of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis in an international, multicenter, prospective cohort (APPRENTICE consortium).

BACKGROUND: The clinical features and outcomes of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) are not well-established. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the clinical characteristics of HTG-AP in an international, multicenter prospective cohort. METHODS: Data collection was conducted prospectively through APPRENTICE between 2015 and 2018. HTG-AP was defined as serum TG levels >500 mg/dl in the absence of other common etiologies of AP. Three multivariate logistic regression models were performed to assess whether HTG-AP is associated with SIRS positive status, ICU admission and/or moderately-severe/severe AP. RESULTS: 1,478 patients were included in the study; 69 subjects (4.7%) were diagnosed with HTG-AP. HTG-AP patients were more likely to be younger (mean 40 vs 50 years; p < 0.001), male (67% vs 52%; p = 0.018), and with a higher BMI (mean 30.4 vs 27.5 kg/m2; p = 0.0002). HTG-AP subjects reported more frequent active alcohol use (71% vs 49%; p < 0.001), and diabetes mellitus (59% vs 15%; p < 0.001). None of the above risk factors/variables was found to be independently associated with SIRS positive status, ICU admission, or severity in the multivariate logistic regression models. These results were similar when including only the 785 subjects with TG levels measured within 48 h from admission. CONCLUSION: HTG-AP was found to be the 4th most common etiology of AP. HTG-AP patients had distinct baseline characteristics, but their clinical outcomes were similar compared to other etiologies of AP.

Acute Pancreatitis Task Force on Quality: Development of Quality Indicators for Acute Pancreatitis Management.

INTRODUCTION: Detailed recommendations and guidelines for acute pancreatitis (AP) management currently exist. However, quality indicators (QIs) are required to measure performance in health care. The goal of the Acute Pancreatitis Task Force on Quality was to formally develop QIs for the management of patients with known or suspected AP using a modified version of the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology. METHODS: A multidisciplinary expert panel composed of physicians (gastroenterologists, hospitalists, and surgeons) who are acknowledged leaders in their specialties and who represent geographic and practice setting diversity was convened. A literature review was conducted, and a list of proposed QIs was developed. In 3 rounds, panelists reviewed literature, modified QIs, and rated them on the basis of scientific evidence, bias, interpretability, validity, necessity, and proposed performance targets. RESULTS: Supporting literature and a list of 71 proposed QIs across 10 AP domains (Diagnosis, Etiology, Initial Assessment and Risk Stratification, etc.) were sent to the expert panel to review and independently rate in round 1 (95% of panelists participated). Based on a round 2 face-to-face discussion of QIs (75% participation), 41 QIs were classified as valid. During round 3 (90% participation), panelists rated the 41 valid QIs for necessity and proposed performance thresholds. The final classification determined that 40 QIs were both valid and necessary. DISCUSSION: Hospitals and providers managing patients with known or suspected AP should ensure that patients receive high-quality care and desired outcomes according to current evidence-based best practices. This physician-led initiative formally developed 40 QIs and performance threshold targets for AP management. Validated QIs provide a dependable quantitative framework for health systems to monitor the quality of care provided to patients with known or suspected AP.

Period prevalence of chronic pancreatitis diagnosis from 2001-2013 in the commercially insured population of the United States.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence estimates of chronic pancreatitis (CP) in the US are scarce. We aimed to determine the prevalence of CP in the commercially insured population of the US. METHODS: We analyzed the IQVIA Legacy PharMetrics database to calculate the period prevalence of CP from 2001 to 2013 among individuals with ≥1 year of enrollment. CP was defined as ≥1 healthcare contacts associated with a non-ancillary claim for a primary diagnosis of CP (ICD-9-CM 577.1). Prevalence estimates were age- and sex- adjusted to the 2010 US population. Sensitivity analysis was performed by using more stringent criteria: a) 1 claim of CP + [≥1 claims of acute pancreatitis (AP), CP or pancreatic cyst/pseudocyst]; b) 1 claim of CP + [≥1 claims for AP, CP or pancreatic cyst/pseudocyst in ≥3 months before or after the index CP claim]; c) ≥2 claims for CP; and d) ≥2 claims for CP separated by ≥ 6 months. RESULTS: Of 48.67 million eligible enrollees, 37,061 received the diagnosis of CP (mean age, 51.2 ±â€¯15.2 years; 49% male). The age- and sex- adjusted period prevalence of CP per 100,000 was 73.4 (95% CI, 72.6-74.1), 98.7 (95% CI, 97.7-99.7) for adults and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.8-8.8) for children. Prevalence of CP was slightly higher in males (sex ratio, 1.05) and highest in the age group of 46-55 years (135/100,000). On sensitivity analysis, the prevalence of CP per 100,000 decreased to 60.2, 39.7, 38.8, and 18.8 with each of the alternative definitions. CONCLUSION: Prevalence estimates reported in our study provide an insight into the population burden of CP in the US.

Influence of Ambulatory Triglyceride Levels on Risk of Recurrence in Patients with Hypertriglyceridemic Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To evaluate impact of ambulatory triglyceride levels on risk of recurrent pancreatitis in patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal retrospective cohort study of patients with serum triglyceride level ≥ 500 mg/dL during index hospitalization for acute pancreatitis within a regional integrated healthcare system between 2006 and 2013 (follow-up through 2015). Cases were identified based on combination of diagnosis codes and serum amylase/lipase. We used multivariable robust Poisson regression to determine independent effect of baseline (first outpatient) triglyceride measurement on risk of recurrent pancreatitis. Ambulatory triglyceride levels were categorized as normal (0-200 mg/dL), moderately elevated (201-500 mg/dL), and highly elevated (> 500 mg/dL). We further assessed factors related to likelihood of normalization of serum triglycerides (< 200 mg/dL) in the outpatient setting. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-one patients met study inclusion criteria with median follow-up of 3 years. Overall, 45 (29.8%) patients experienced at least 1 recurrent attack with 25 (16.6%) experiencing multiple episodes. In multivariable analysis, patients that continued to have moderately elevated ((adjusted rate ratio RR 5.47 (95% CL 1.80, 16.65)) as well as highly elevated (RR 8.45 (2.55, 27.96)) triglycerides were at increased risk of disease recurrence compared to patients that achieved normalization. Patients with triglyceride measurement performed within 30 days from discharge were more likely to achieve normalization, 40 versus 26%, p = 0.03. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis, even modest elevation in subsequent triglyceride levels was associated with increased risk of recurrence. Future efforts should focus on ensuring timely care in the outpatient setting with a goal of normalizing triglycerides.

Racial and Ethnic Minorities at Increased Risk for Gastric Cancer in a Regional US Population Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Limited data are available on risk factors for gastric cancer in the United States. We aimed to characterize risk for gastric cancer based on race/ethnicity and additional established risk factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study from 2008 to 2014 from an integrated health care system in Southern California to assess incidence of gastric cancer by race/ethnicity. We then conducted an age- and sex-matched case-cohort study to evaluate additional risk factors: Helicobacter pylori infection, tobacco use, family history, obesity, language, and socioeconomic status. Subgroup analysis was performed for language and socioeconomic status by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: The incidence of gastric cancer in the reference (non-Hispanic white) population was 8.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7-8.7) cases per 100,000 person-years. Incidence values for Asians, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic black persons were higher: 12.7 (95% CI, 11.1-14.3), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.7-13.7), and 11.8 (95% CI, 10.3-13.2) cases per 100,000 person-years, respectively (all P < .0001). In logistic regression analysis, we found race/ethnicity to be an independent risk factor for gastric cancer; the odds ratio (OR) for non-Hispanic black persons was 1.5 (95% CI, 1.22-1.72; P < .0001), the OR for Hispanics was 1.4 (95% CI, 1.22-1.57; P < .0001), and the OR for Asians was 1.5 (95% CI, 1.28-1.81; P < .0001), compared with the non-Hispanic white population. Other independent risk factors included infection with H pylori (OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 3.8-5.7), smoking history (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6), and family history of gastric cancer (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.6-4.4) (all P < .0001). Non-English language was a significant risk factor for gastric cancer in Asians (P = .05). Higher annual median income was associated with reduced risk (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.95; P = .0004). CONCLUSIONS: In a population study in Southern California, we found racial/ethnic minorities to have a 40%-50% increase in risk of gastric cancer compared with the non-Hispanic white population. In addition to H pylori infection, smoking, family history, and low socioeconomic status were also associated with increased risk. Further characterization of high-risk groups may identify populations appropriate for targeted screening.

Competing Risks for Mortality in Patients With Asymptomatic Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: Implications for Clinical Management.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are being detected with increased frequency. Current clinical practice guidelines emphasize management based on cyst-related features. We aimed to evaluate the impact of comorbidity on mortality in PCN patients via competing risk analysis. METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed between 2005-2010, with follow-up through 2015, for overall and cause-specific mortality. Comorbidities were classified by the Charlson comorbidity index. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the independent effect of cyst features, age, gender, and comorbidities on cause-specific mortality. Subgroup analysis was performed to determine the cause-specific mortality based on four a priori clinical profiles-healthy patients with low- or high-risk cysts, and high-comorbidity patients with low- or high-risk cysts. RESULTS: A total of 1,800 patients with PCNs comprised the study cohort (median follow-up 5.7 years). A total of 402 deaths (22.3%) occurred during the study period: 43 pancreatic cancer and 359 non-pancreatic cancer deaths. Compared to healthy patients without any high-risk cyst features (reference group), patients with high comorbidity as well as high-risk cyst features had an increased risk of overall mortality (Cox hazard ratio 6.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.71, 8.42, P<0.01), pancreatic cancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 51.13, 95% CI 6.35, 411.29, P<0.01), as well as non-pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 5.24, 95% CI 3.85, 7.12, P<0.01). Meanwhile, low-risk patients with a high-risk cyst were more likely to experience pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 68.14, 95% CI 9.27, 501.01, P<0.01) rather than non-pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 1.22, 95% CI 0.88, 1.71, P=0.23), compared to the reference group. Similarly, compared to the reference group, high-risk patients with a low-risk cyst were more likely to experience non-pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 3.96, 95% CI 2.98, 5.26, P<0.01) rather than pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 2.35, 95% CI 0.14, 38.82, P=0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Most of the deaths in the study were unrelated to pancreatic cancer. This has implications for clinical management. By applying patient-related factors in conjunction with cyst features, we defined commonly encountered patient profiles to help guide PCN clinical management.

Dynamic Measurement of Disease Activity in Acute Pancreatitis: The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System.

OBJECTIVES: Acute pancreatitis has a highly variable course. Currently there is no widely accepted method to measure disease activity in patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis. We aimed to develop a clinical activity index that incorporates routine clinical parameters to assist in the measurement, study, and management of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: We used the UCLA/RAND appropriateness method to identify items for inclusion in the disease activity instrument. We conducted a systematic literature review followed by two sets of iterative modified Delphi meetings including a panel of international experts between November 2014 and November 2015. The final instrument was then applied to patient data obtained from five separate study cohorts across Southern California to assess profiles of disease activity. RESULTS: From a list of 35 items comprising 6 domains, we identified 5 parameters for inclusion in the final weighted clinical activity scoring system: organ failure, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, abdominal pain, requirement for opiates and ability to tolerate oral intake. We applied the weighted scoring system across the 5 study cohorts comprising 3,123 patients. We identified several distinct patterns of disease activity: (i) overall there was an elevated score at baseline relative to discharge across all study cohorts, (ii) there were distinct patterns of disease activity related to duration of illness as well as (iii) early and persistent elevation of disease activity among patients with severe acute pancreatitis defined as persistent organ failure. CONCLUSIONS: We present the development and initial validation of a clinical activity score for real-time assessment of disease activity in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Early Abdominal Imaging Remains Over-Utilized in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Early abdominal computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is common in acute pancreatitis (AP). Guidelines (2007-2013) indicate routine use is unwarranted. AIMS: To compare the frequency and evaluate the predictors of early CT/MR utilization for AP between September 2006-2007 (period A) and September 2014-2015 (period B). METHODS: AP patients presenting directly to a large academic emergency department were prospectively enrolled during each period. Cases requiring imaging to fulfill diagnostic criteria were excluded. Early CT/MR (within 24 h of presentation) utilization rates were compared using Fisher's exact test. Predictors of early imaging usage were assessed with multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The cohort included 96 AP cases in period A and 97 in period B. There were no significant differences in patient demographics, comorbidity scores, or AP severity. Period B cases manifested decreased rates of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) during the first 24 h of hospitalization (67% period A vs. 43% period B, p = 0.001). Independent predictors of early imaging included age >60 and SIRS or organ failure on day 1. No significant decrease in early CT/MR usage was observed from period A to B on both univariate (49% period A vs. 40% period B, p = 0.25) and multivariate (OR 1.0 for period B vs. A, 95% CI 0.5-1.9) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In a comparison of imaging practices for AP, there was no significant decrease in early abdominal CT/MR utilization from 2007 to 2015. Quality improvement initiatives specifically targeting early imaging overuse are needed.