Advancing real-time error correction of flood forecasting based on the hydrologic similarity theory and machine learning techniques.

Real-time flood forecasting is one of the most pivotal measures for flood management, and real-time error correction is a critical step to guarantee the reliability of forecasting results. However, it is still challenging to develop a robust error correction technique due to the limited cognitions of catchment mechanisms and multi-source errors across hydrological modeling. In this study, we proposed a hydrologic similarity-based correction (HSBC) framework, which hybridizes hydrological modeling and multiple machine learning algorithms to advance the error correction of real-time flood forecasting. This framework can quickly and accurately retrieve similar historical simulation errors for different types of real-time floods by integrating clustering, supervised classification, and similarity retrieval methods. The simulation errors "carried" by similar historical floods are extracted to update the real-time forecasting results. Here, combining the Xin'anjiang model-based forecasting platform with k-means, K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and embedding based subsequences matching (EBSM) method, we constructed the HSBC framework and applied it to China's Dufengkeng Basin. Three schemes, including "non-corrected" (scheme 1), "auto-regressive (AR) corrected" (scheme 2), and "HSBC corrected" (scheme 3), were built for comparison purpose. The results indicated the following: 1) the proposed framework can successfully retrieval similar simulation errors with a considerable retrieval accuracy (2.79) and time consumption (228.18 s). 2) four evaluation metrics indicated that the HSBC-based scheme 3 performed much better than the AR-based scheme 2 in terms of both the whole flood process and the peak discharge; 3) the proposed framework overcame the shortcoming of the AR model that have poor correction for the flood peaks and can provide more significant correction for the floods with bad forecasting performance. Overall, the HSBC framework demonstrates the advancement of benefiting the real-time error correction from hydrologic similarity theory and provides a novel methodological alternative for flood control and water management in wider areas.

The association of FGF-21 with the risk of newly diagnosed type-2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study in Southern China.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the relationship between fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF-21) and newly diagnosed type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, FGF-21 and T2DM risk were analyzed using restricted cubic splines with univariate or multivariate logistic regression analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated via logistic regression analysis. Cluster and subgroup analyses were conducted to evaluate the associations between FGF-21 and diabetes in different subpopulations. Nomograms and ROC curves were used to explore the clinical utility of FGF-21 in the diabetes assessment model. RESULTS: High levels of FGF-21 were significantly associated with a high risk of T2DM after adjusting for confounding factors in both the total population and subpopulations (P for trend < 0.001). In the total population, the ORs of diabetes with increasing FGF-21 quartiles were 1.00 (reference), 1.24 (95% CI 0.56-2.80; quartile 2), 2.47 (95% CI 1.18-5.33; quartile 3), and 3.24 (95% CI 1.53-7.14; quartile 4) in Model 4 (P < 0.001), and the trend was consistent in different subpopulations. In addition, compared with the model constructed with conventional noninvasive indicators, the AUC of the model constructed by adding FGF-21 was increased from 0.668 (95% CI: 0.602-0.733) to 0.715 (95% CI: 0.654-0.777), indicating that FGF-21 could significantly improve the risk-assessment efficiency of type-2 diabetes. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that a high level of circulating FGF-21 was positively correlated with diabetes, and levels of FGF-21 could be an important biomarker for the assessment of diabetes risk.

A comprehensive epigenetic network can influence the occurrence of thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy by affecting immune and inflammatory response.

The primary objective of this study is to understand the regulatory role of epigenetics in thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO) using multi-omics sequencing data. We utilized tRFs sequencing data, DNA methylation sequencing data, and lncRNA/circRNA/mRNA sequencing data, as well as several RNA methylation target prediction websites, to analyze the regulatory effect of DNA methylation, non-coding RNA, and RNA methylation on TAO-associated genes. Through differential expression analysis, we identified 1019 differentially expressed genes, 985 differentially methylated genes, and 2601 non-coding RNA. Functional analysis showed that differentially expressed genes were mostly associated with the PI3K signaling pathway and the IL17 signaling pathway. Genes regulated by DNA epigenetic regulatory networks were mainly related to the Cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction pathway, whereas genes regulated by RNA epigenetic regulatory networks were primarily related to the T cell receptor signaling pathway. Finally, our integrated regulatory network analysis revealed that epigenetics mainly impacts the occurrence of TAO through its effects on key pathways such as cell killing, cytokine production, and immune response. In summary, this study is the first to reveal a new mechanism underlying the development of TAO and provides new directions for future TAO research.

Independent and interactive associations of heart rate and obesity with type 2 diabetes mellites: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Although obesity and heart rate (HR) were closely related to the prevalence and development of type 2 diabetes mllitus (T2DM), few studies have shown a co-association effect of them on T2DM. We aimed at assessing the interactive effects of HR and obesity with prevalence of T2DM in Chinese population, providing the exact cutpoint of the risk threshold for blood glucose with high HR. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the Risk Evaluation of cAncers in Chinese diabeTic Individuals: a lONgitudinal study (REACTION) cohorts (N = 8398), the relationship between HR and T2DM was explored by linear regression, logistic regression, and restricted cubic spline, and odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Interaction terms between HR and body mass index (BMI) and HR and waist circumference (WC) were introduced into the logistic regression model. RESULTS: In those with HR > 88.0 beats/min, fasting plasma glucose and oral glucose tolerance tests were significantly correlated with HR, and the prevalence of T2DM was highly correlated with HR (all p < .05). There were interactive associations of HR and obesity in patients with T2DM with HR < 74 beats/min. CONCLUSION: High HR was in interaction with obesity, associating with prevalence of T2DM. The newly subdivided risk threshold for HR with T2DM might be HR > 88 beats/minute.

Short night-time sleep duration is associated with thyroid nodules: A community-based survey from Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: Sleep plays a critical role in maintaining human health. This study aimed to explore the association between sleep status and thyroid nodules. METHODS: A total of 2414 individuals aged 18 or older with euthyroidism were enrolled in this community-based survey. Sleep status was self-reported. Thyroid ultrasonography was performed to measure nodules. Multiple logistic analyses were applied to adjust for confounding factors. RESULTS: The percentages of thyroid nodules among individuals who slept <5 hours, 5-8 hours, and >8 hours per night were 57.79% (115/199), 44.19% (833/1885) and 42.73% (141/330), respectively (p = 0.001). Individuals who slept <5 hours per night had a significantly higher percentage of thyroid nodules than those who slept 5-8 hours per night (57.79% vs. 44.19%, p = 0.001) or >8 hours per night (57.79% vs. 42.73%, P < 0.001). However, no similar result was shown between individuals who slept >8 hours and 5-8 hours per night (42.73% vs. 44.19%, p = 0.621). Multiple logistic analysis showed that a sleep duration of <5 hours per night was significantly associated with thyroid nodules (odds ratio (OR) 1.643, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.084-2.490, p = 0.019) when compared to a sleep duration of >8 hours per night. However, a sleep duration of <5 hours per night was not associated with thyroid nodules compared to a sleep duration of 5-8 hours (OR 1.294, 95% CI 0.918-1.824, p = 0.141). Similarly, no significant differences were seen among sleep duration per day, time of falling asleep, habit of daytime napping or thyroid nodules in multiple logistic analyses (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Short nighttime sleep duration was associated with thyroid nodules in our community-based population. Screening for thyroid nodules among these individuals is recommended.

Cumulative ecosystem response to Hydraulic Engineering Infrastructure Projects in an arid basin.

Hydraulic Engineering Infrastructure Projects (HEIPs) typically show profound effects on hydrological systems and ecosystems. However, data restrictions have limited the exploration of the influences of compound HEIPs on ecosystems to a few studies. This study proposes a watershed-wide ecosystem assessment framework to investigate the impact of HEIPs in the Tarim River Headwaters-Hotan River Basin on the ecosystem of the arid zone. The framework includes a deep learning-meta cellular automata algorithm (DLMCAA) based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of HEIPs and hydro-meteorological and human activities. Moreover, the spatiotemporal relationships between compound HEIPs and ecosystem variances were quantified. The framework including DLMCAA showed a good performance in simulating landcover in 2020, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. Therefore, the DLMCAA could be used to simulate and predict ecosystem changes under the HEIPs, which suggested that the framework is effective and practical. An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of each ecosystem from 1980 to 2020 showed that the low shrub ecosystems changed most significantly (26.38 %) between 1980 and 2020. Also, the use of spatially driven hydrological project data from different ABC scenarios showed that ecosystems driven by HEIPs were more stable compared to those without HEIPs under future climate change. In particular, the DLMCAA indicated that compound HEIPs had a more positive impact on ecosystem oases in arid lands compared with that of single HEIPs. The results of this study can serve as a scientific reference for assessing the impact of HEIPs, as well as for understanding ecosystem changes and facilitating sustainable water resource management in the arid regions.

Thyroid autoimmunity and adverse pregnancy outcomes: A multiple center retrospective study.

Background: The relationship between thyroid autoimmunity (TAI) and adverse pregnancy outcomes is disputable, and their dose-dependent association have not been fully clarified. Objective: To investigate the association and dose-dependent effect of TAI with multiple maternal and fetal-neonatal complications. Methods: This study is a multi-center retrospective cohort study based on singleton pregnancies of three medical college hospitals from July 2013 to October 2021. The evolution of thyroid function parameters in TAI and not TAI women were described, throughout pregnancy. The prevalences of maternal and fetal-neonatal complications were compared between the TAI and control group. Logistic regression was performed to study the risk effects and dose-dependent effects of thyroid autoantibodies on pregnancy complications, with adjustment of maternal age, BMI, gravidity, TSH concentrations, FT4 concentrations and history of infertility. Results: A total of 27408 participants were included in final analysis, with 5342 (19.49%) in the TAI group and 22066 (80.51%) in control group. TSH concentrations was higher in TAI women in baseline and remain higher before the third trimester. Positive thyroid autoantibodies were independently associated with higher risk of pregnancy-induced hypertension (OR: 1.215, 95%CI: 1.026-1.439), gestational diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.088, 95%CI: 1.001-1.183), and neonatal admission to NICU (OR: 1.084, 95%CI: 1.004-1.171). Quantitative analysis showed that increasing TPOAb concentration was correlated with higher probability of pregnancy-induced hypertension, and increasing TGAb concentration was positively correlated with pregnancy-induced hypertension, small for gestational age and NICU admission. Both TPOAb and TGAb concentration were negatively associated with neonatal birthweight. Conclusion: Thyroid autoimmunity is independently associated with pregnancy-induced hypertension, gestational diabetes mellitus, neonatal lower birthweight and admission to NICU. Dose-dependent association were found between TPOAb and pregnancy-induced hypertension, and between TGAb and pregnancy-induced hypertension, small for gestational age and NICU admission.

U-shaped association between serum IGF2BP3 and T2DM: A cross-sectional study in Chinese population.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the expression of N6-methyladenosine (m6 A) modulators involved in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We further explored the association of serum insulin-like growth factor 2 mRNA-binding proteins 3 (IGF2BP3) levels and odds of T2DM in a high-risk population. METHODS: The gene expression data set GSE25724 was obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus, and a cluster heatmap was generated by using the R package ComplexHeatmap. Differential expression analysis for 13 m6 A RNA methylation regulators between nondiabetic controls and T2DM subjects was performed using an unpaired t test. A cross-sectional design, including 393 subjects (131 patients with newly diagnosed T2DM, 131 age- and sex-matched subjects with prediabetes, and 131 healthy controls), was carried out. The associations between serum IGF2BP3 concentrations and T2DM were modeled by restricted cubic spline and logistic regression models. RESULTS: Two upregulated (IGF2BP2 and IGF2BP3) and 5 downregulated (methyltransferase-like 3 [METTL3], alkylation repair homolog protein 1 [ALKBH1], YTH domain family 2 [YTHDF2], YTHDF3, and heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein [HNRNPC]) m6 A-related genes were found in islet samples of T2DM patients. A U-shaped association existed between serum IGF2BP3 levels and odds of T2DM according to cubic natural spline analysis models, after adjustment for body mass index, waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and triglyeride. Multivariate logistic regression showed that progressively higher odds of T2DM were observed when serum IGF2BP3 levels were below 0.62 ng/mL (odds ratio 3.03 [95% confidence interval 1.23-7.47]) in model 4. CONCLUSION: Seven significantly altered m6 A RNA methylation genes were identified in T2DM. There was a U-shaped association between serum IGF2BP3 levels and odds of T2DM in the general Chinese adult population. This study provides important evidence for further examination of the role of m6 A RNA methylation, especially serum IGF2BP3 in T2DM risk assessment.

Establishment of watershed ecological water requirements framework: A case study of the Lower Yellow River, China.

It is of great practical significance to ensure ecological water requirements (EWRs) for the maintenance of river health and the sustainable development of human socioeconomics. How to scientifically determine the comprehensive EWRs and estimate the uncertainty of hydro-ecological tools performed in the process of conducting remains one of the most important yet most complicated issues. In this study, the ecological water requirements framework (EWRsF) of the Lower Yellow River (LYR), which considers instream ecological base flow, survival and reproduction of indicator fish species, equilibrium of erosion and siltation and ecological function of the estuary, was constructed by integrating hydrological, hydraulic and ecological habitat methods. The framework contains three crucial components - determination of instream EWRs and estuarine EWRs, uncertainty analysis of hydro-ecological tools. For instream ecological base flow, we proposed an improved Tennant method, which took into account both seasonality and sediment transport characteristics of the LYR, and could better reflect the actual hydrological regime. For the hydrological ecological response relationship of indicator fish species, we estimated the uncertainty of the model output of River2D to improve its credibility of the simulation results. The results demonstrated that: 1) Two-grade intra-annual monthly EWRs process of suitable and minimum for four instream sections and estuary area were obtained. The flood season (June-October) is the period with the largest proportion of intra-annual instream EWRs, whereas in estuary area, is the spawning period (April-July) of dominant species. 2) The uncertainty of HSI curves directly leads to the uncertainty of model output. Although the shape and position of the WUA curve can be uncertain, it does not affect the judgment of EWRs threshold. 3) The research results can provide scientific basis for water resource management decision-making in the LYR. Additionally, the ideas also have reference significance for similar basins.

Congenital adrenal hyperplasia due to P450 oxidoreductase deficiency.

Objective: To raise awareness of Cytochrome P450 Oxidoreductase Deficiency (PORD, a rare form of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), through a case of pregnant woman with virilization symptoms. Case description: A 30-year-old Chinese woman was referred to hospital after 7 years of presenting signs of virilization, including voice deepening, acromegaly, hirsutism, clitoromegaly, and acne. These symptoms appeared since her third gestation. Her second birth died 9 hours after birth and had signs of clitoris hypertrophy. Her third born was a son who presented with flat nose, radius and humerus bone malformation, and small penis at birth. Panel of POR-related genetic tests revealed that the patient carried c.1370 G>A (p.R457H), which is a POR heterozygous gene, while her husband carried a POR heterozygous gene as well, c.1379 C>A (p.S460Y). Two heterozygous mutations of the POR were found in her son: c.1370 G>A and c.1379 C>A. In PORD, c.1370 G>A (p.R457H) was reported as a susceptible gene, while c.1379 C>A (p.S460Y) has not been reported as responsible for the disease so far. Discussion and literature review: PORD is a rare form of CAH and caused by POR gene mutations. Most PORD patients are identified and diagnosed in pediatrics department. Internal medicine and obstetrics physicians are unfamiliar with the disease. As clinical manifestations are diverse, PORD could be easy to miss or to be misdiagnosed. Typical clinical manifestation includes adrenal insufficiency-related symptoms, such as bone malformations and sexual development disorders. PORD is diagnosed through genetic testing. Investigations of steroid metabolic products in urine through gas chromatography-mass spectrometry or liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry are also helpful for the diagnosis, but neither of them are widely available in China. In this case, the patient had a history of infertility, and her third child was born with congenital defect and carried a PORD-related gene. In general clinical practice, if a pregnant woman presents with abnormal virilization symptoms, CAH possibilities should be considered, including rare causes such as PORD. Conclusion: PORD is a rare autosomal recessive genetic disease. We summarised the clinical characteristics and genotypes that were previously reported in the Chinese population and identified a novel mutation.

Iodine nutritional status, the prevalence of thyroid goiter and nodules in rural and urban residents: a cross-sectional study from Guangzhou, China.

OBJECTIVES: A variety of factors differed between rural and urban areas may further influence iodine status and thyroid structure. Hence, this study compared iodine nutrition, the prevalence of thyroid goiter, and nodules between rural and urban residents in Guangzhou, a southern coastal city of China. METHODS: A total of 1211 rural residents and 1305 urban residents were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. A questionnaire regarding personal characteristics was administered. Urinary iodine concentration (UIC) was examined. Ultrasonography of the thyroid was performed to evaluate thyroid goiter and nodules. Multiple logistic analysis was used to identify the potential associated factors. RESULTS: The median UIC was significantly lower in rural residents than in urban residents (120.80 µg/L vs 136.00 µg/L, P < 0.001). Although the coverage rate of iodized salt was much higher in rural residents than in urban residents (99.59% vs 97.29%, P < 0.001), the percentages of seafood intake (8.60% vs 29.29%, P < 0.001), iodine-containing drug consumption (0.33% vs 1.24%, P = 0.011), and iodine contrast medium injection (0.58% vs 1.87%, P = 0.004) were lower in rural residents than in urban residents. Both the prevalence of thyroid goiters and nodules was significantly higher in rural residents than in urban residents (goiter: 8.06% vs 1.20%, P < 0.001; nodules: 61.89% vs 55.04%, P = 0.023). Living in rural areas was associated with thyroid goiter (OR 5.114, 95% CI 2.893-9.040, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There were differences in iodine nutrition and the prevalence of thyroid goiter and nodules in rural and urban residents in Guangzhou. Differentiated and specialized monitoring is recommended in our area.

The Risk Threshold for Hemoglobin A1c Associated With Albuminuria: A Population-Based Study in China.

Background: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a kind of common microvascular complication of diabetes. This study aims to explore the possible links between blood sugar level and albuminuria, providing the exact cut point of the "risk threshold" for blood glucose with DKD. Methods: The relationship between blood glucose and albuminuria was modeled using linear and logistic regression in the REACTION study cohorts (N= 8932). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by logistic regression model. Two-slope linear regression was used to simulate associations between blood glucose and ACR. Results: We found that the increase in ACR was accompanied by increased HbA1c, with a turning point at 5.5%. The positive correlation remained highly significant (P<0.001) when adjusted for age, sex, marital status, education, smoking status, drinking status, BMI, waistline, SBP and DBP. In subgroup analyses including gender, obesity, hypertension, and smoking habits, the relationship was significant and stable. Conclusions: We determined a risk threshold for HbA1c associated with albuminuria in a Chinese population over the age of 40. HbA1c ≥ 5.5% was positively and independently associated with ACR. These results suggest the necessity of early blood glucose control and renal function screening for DKD in at-risk populations.