Validity of forensic cartridge-case comparisons.

This article presents key findings from a research project that evaluated the validity and probative value of cartridge-case comparisons under field-based conditions. Decisions provided by 228 trained firearm examiners across the US showed that forensic cartridge-case comparison is characterized by low error rates. However, inconclusive decisions constituted over one-fifth of all decisions rendered, complicating evaluation of the technique's ability to yield unambiguously correct decisions. Specifically, restricting evaluation to only the conclusive decisions of identification and elimination yielded true-positive and true-negative rates exceeding 99%, but incorporating inconclusives caused these values to drop to 93.4% and 63.5%, respectively. The asymmetric effect on the two rates occurred because inconclusive decisions were rendered six times more frequently for different-source than same-source comparisons. Considering probative value, which is a decision's usefulness for determining a comparison's ground-truth state, conclusive decisions predicted their corresponding ground-truth states with near perfection. Likelihood ratios (LRs) further showed that conclusive decisions greatly increase the odds of a comparison's ground-truth state matching the ground-truth state asserted by the decision. Inconclusive decisions also possessed probative value, predicting different-source status and having a LR indicating that they increase the odds of different-source status. The study also manipulated comparison difficulty by using two firearm models that produce dissimilar cartridge-case markings. The model chosen for being more difficult received more inconclusive decisions for same-source comparisons, resulting in a lower true-positive rate compared to the less difficult model. Relatedly, inconclusive decisions for the less difficult model exhibited more probative value, being more strongly predictive of different-source status.

Evidence-based suspicion and the prior probability of guilt in police interrogations.

OBJECTIVE: False confessions are prevalent in wrongful convictions, and much research has examined investigation factors and interrogation methods that can contribute to false confessions. However, not all these factors are under the control of the legal system, and improving the effectiveness of interrogation methods has a limited effect on evaluating the veracity of confessions. We suggest incorporating an important but often-neglected factor in interrogations: suspects' prior probability of guilt ("the prior," a Bayesian term meaning suspects' likelihood of being guilty before police conduct an interrogation). METHOD: By connecting interrogation practices to probability concepts, we discuss a gap in the literature between questions traditionally answered by lab research and a distinct question faced by the legal system. RESULTS: On the basis of our analysis, we argue that police should increase priors by collecting additional evidence to satisfy an evidence-based suspicion of guilt before interrogating suspects. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the evidence-based suspicion practice can help police reduce false confessions, reallocate investigation time and resources, and assist prosecutors in building strong cases for trial. Likewise, researchers should expand the empirical and legal questions they ask and incorporate priors into their interrogation experiments to improve the generalizability of findings to the criminal justice system. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

fullROC: An R package for generating and analyzing eyewitness-lineup ROC curves.

A police lineup is a procedure in which a suspect is surrounded by known-innocent persons (fillers) and presented to the witness for an identification attempt. The purpose of a lineup is to test the investigator's hypothesis that the suspect is the culprit, and the investigator uses the witness' identification decision and the associated confidence level to inform this hypothesis. Whereas suspect identifications provide evidence of guilt, filler identifications and rejections provide evidence of innocence. Despite the capacity of lineups to provide exculpatory information, past research has focused, almost exclusively, on inculpatory behaviors. We recently developed a method for incorporating all lineup outcomes in a single receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. The area under the full lineup ROC curve reflects the total capacity of a lineup procedure to discriminate guilty suspects from innocent suspects. Here, we introduce a Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) package, fullROC, to support eyewitness researchers in using the full ROC approach to analyze lineup data. The fullROC package provides functions for adjusting identification rates, generating full ROC curves for lineup data, computing the area under the ROC curves (AUC), and statistically comparing the AUCs of different lineups. Using both simulated and empirical data, we illustrate the functionality of the fullROC CRAN package. In brief, the fullROC package provides a useful tool for eyewitness researchers to analyze lineup data using the full ROC method, which incorporates both the inculpatory and exculpatory information of eyewitness behaviors.

Eyewitnesses' free-report verbal confidence statements are diagnostic of accuracy.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed recent policy recommendations to collect eyewitnesses' confidence statements in witnesses' own words as opposed to numerically. We conducted an experiment to test whether eyewitnesses' free-report verbal confidence statements are as diagnostic of eyewitness accuracy as their numeric confidence statements and whether the diagnostic utility of eyewitnesses' verbal and numeric confidence statements varies across witnessing conditions. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesized that eyewitnesses' verbal and numeric confidence statements are both significantly associated with identification accuracy among choosers and that their diagnostic utility holds across varying witnessing conditions. METHOD: In the first phase of the experiment, eyewitnesses (N = 4,795 MTurkers; 48.8% female; 50.8% male; .3% other; age M = 36.9) viewed a videotaped mock-crime and made an identification decision from a culprit-present or culprit-absent lineup. We manipulated witnessing conditions at encoding and retrieval to obtain varied levels of memory performance. In the second phase of the experiment, evaluators (N = 456 MTurkers; 35.5% female; 62.7% male .4% other; age M = 36.5) translated witnesses' verbal confidence statements to a numeric estimate and we used calibration and confidence-accuracy characteristic analyses to compare the diagnosticity of witnesses' verbal and numeric confidence statements across the two levels of memory performance. RESULTS: Witnesses' verbal and numeric confidence statements were significantly and nondifferentially diagnostic of eyewitness accuracy for both choosers and nonchoosers, and their diagnostic utility held across variations in witnessing conditions. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the applied utility of collecting either verbal or numeric confidence statements from eyewitnesses immediately following an identification decision. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Why suspects confess: The power of outcome certainty.

OBJECTIVE: In custodial interrogations, suspects tend to give disproportionate weight to immediate outcomes relative to future outcomes when deciding whether to confess or deny guilt. The current research examined whether the perceived (un)certainty of an immediate outcome influences suspects' short-sighted confession decisions. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesized that suspects are more likely to make short-sighted confession decisions when an immediate punishment is certain versus uncertain and that the effects of a certain immediate punishment become stronger the longer suspects are interrogated. METHOD: Using the repetitive question paradigm, college student participants (N = 164, 57% women, 87% Caucasian, M age 18.9 years) admitted or denied 20 illegal and unethical behaviors in an interview. Participants' admissions and denials received either an immediate punishment (answering repetitive questions) or a future punishment (meeting with a police officer in several weeks to discuss their misconduct). In addition, we manipulated participants' perceptions of the immediate punishment to be either certain or uncertain. RESULTS: Participants showed greater short-sightedness in their admission decisions when they perceived the immediate punishment to be certain versus uncertain. Moreover, the influence of the certain immediate punishment on participants' admission decisions tended to increase over time. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide empirical evidence that the certainty of immediate outcomes may contribute to suspects' shorted-sighted confession decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Mobilization and resistance in response to interrogation threat.

This research tested whether the perception of threat during a police interrogation mobilizes suspects to cope with interrogation demands and bolsters their resistance to self-incrimination pressures. Experimental procedures led university undergraduates (N = 296) to engage in misconduct or not, thereby making them guilty or innocent. An experimenter then accused all participants of misconduct in either a threatening or nonthreatening way. High threat produced a broad pattern of mobilization entailing physiologic, cognitive, and behavioral components. Specifically, in comparison to the low threat accusation, the high threat accusation produced greater cardiovascular reactions, increased attentional bias and memory for accusation-relevant information, and strengthened resistance to self-incrimination. Furthermore, with the exception of physiologic reactions, these effects were similar for both guilty and innocent participants. Consistent with the phenomenology of innocence wherein the innocent perceive less threat from interrogation than do the guilty, the innocent evidenced smaller cardiovascular responses to high threat than did the guilty. Results suggest that the more threat that suspects experience, the more they will be mobilized to cope with interrogation demands and resist interpersonal pressure to self-incriminate, at least initially. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

An expected cost model of eyewitness identification.

This article presents an expected cost model for evaluating and comparing the performance of eyewitness identification procedures. The model estimates the expected cost of an identification procedure in order to quantify how well the procedure helps the police achieve the investigation goal of identifying and incriminating the culprit. We first apply the expected cost model to analyze five major procedural reforms, including showups versus lineups, filler similarity, administrator influence, lineup instruction, and presentation format. Our analysis reveals that when there is a trade-off between accurate and mistaken identifications, conclusions about procedural superiority depend on the prior probability of guilt and relative costs of different identification outcomes. We then conduct an additional analysis based on a simultaneous consideration of all identification outcomes (i.e., suspect identifications, filler identifications, and rejections). Our analysis shows that assuming different costs for filler identifications and rejections can change conclusions about procedural superiority. We conclude by discussing insights provided by the expected cost model regarding how the legal system can reduce expected costs of eyewitness identification-by changing the conditional probabilities, by reducing the costs of identification outcomes, or by increasing the prior probability of guilt. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

The interrogation decision-making model: A general theoretical framework for confessions.

This article presents a new model of confessions referred to as the interrogation decision-making model. This model provides a theoretical umbrella with which to understand and analyze suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt in the context of a custodial interrogation. The model draws upon expected utility theory to propose a mathematical account of the psychological mechanisms that not only underlie suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt at any specific point during an interrogation, but also how confession decisions can change over time. Findings from the extant literature pertaining to confessions are considered to demonstrate how the model offers a comprehensive and integrative framework for organizing a range of effects within a limited set of model parameters. (PsycINFO Database Record

A biphasic process of resistance among suspects: The mobilization and decline of self-regulatory resources.

We conducted two experiments to test whether police interrogation elicits a biphasic process of resistance from suspects. According to this process, the initial threat of police interrogation mobilizes suspects to resist interrogative influence in a manner akin to a fight or flight response, but suspects' protracted self-regulation of their behavior during subsequent questioning increases their susceptibility to interrogative influence in the long-run. In Experiment 1 (N = 316), participants who were threatened by an accusation of misconduct exhibited responses indicative of mobilization and more strongly resisted social pressure to acquiesce to suggestive questioning than did participants who were not accused. In Experiment 2 (N = 160), self-regulatory decline that was induced during questioning about misconduct undermined participants' ability to resist suggestive questioning. These findings support a theoretical account of the dynamic and temporal nature of suspects' responses to police interrogation over the course of questioning. (PsycINFO Database Record

The perfect match: Do criminal stereotypes bias forensic evidence analysis?

This research provided the first empirical test of the hypothesis that stereotypes bias evaluations of forensic evidence. A pilot study (N = 107) assessed the content and consensus of 20 criminal stereotypes by identifying perpetrator characteristics (e.g., sex, race, age, religion) that are stereotypically associated with specific crimes. In the main experiment (N = 225), participants read a mock police incident report involving either a stereotyped crime (child molestation) or a nonstereotyped crime (identity theft) and judged whether a suspect's fingerprint matched a fingerprint recovered at the crime scene. Accompanying the suspect's fingerprint was personal information about the suspect of the type that is routinely available to fingerprint analysts (e.g., race, sex) and which could activate a stereotype. Participants most often perceived the fingerprints to match when the suspect fit the criminal stereotype, even though the prints did not actually match. Moreover, participants appeared to be unaware of the extent to which a criminal stereotype had biased their evaluations. These findings demonstrate that criminal stereotypes are a potential source of bias in forensic evidence analysis and suggest that suspects who fit criminal stereotypes may be disadvantaged over the course of the criminal justice process. (PsycINFO Database Record

Short-sighted confession decisions: the role of uncertain and delayed consequences.

Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.

Eyewitness identification: Bayesian information gain, base-rate effect equivalency curves, and reasonable suspicion.

We provide a novel Bayesian treatment of the eyewitness identification problem as it relates to various system variables, such as instruction effects, lineup presentation format, lineup-filler similarity, lineup administrator influence, and show-ups versus lineups. We describe why eyewitness identification is a natural Bayesian problem and how numerous important observations require careful consideration of base rates. Moreover, we argue that the base rate in eyewitness identification should be construed as a system variable (under the control of the justice system). We then use prior-by-posterior curves and information-gain curves to examine data obtained from a large number of published experiments. Next, we show how information-gain curves are moderated by system variables and by witness confidence and we note how information-gain curves reveal that lineups are consistently more proficient at incriminating the guilty than they are at exonerating the innocent. We then introduce a new type of analysis that we developed called base rate effect-equivalency (BREE) curves. BREE curves display how much change in the base rate is required to match the impact of any given system variable. The results indicate that even relatively modest changes to the base rate can have more impact on the reliability of eyewitness identification evidence than do the traditional system variables that have received so much attention in the literature. We note how this Bayesian analysis of eyewitness identification has implications for the question of whether there ought to be a reasonable-suspicion criterion for placing a person into the jeopardy of an identification procedure.

Youth Assets and Alcohol, Tobacco, and Other Drug Use: The Importance of Family Structure.

This research analyzed data from the Youth Asset Study (YAS), a 4-year longitudinal investigation designed to examine the prospective influence of youth assets, which are believed to influence behavior at the individual, family, and community levels, on youth risk behaviors. The purpose was to determine if specific youth assets (e.g., responsible choices, family communication, community involvement) differentially protected adolescents from alcohol, tobacco, and other drug use (ATODU) according to family structure (one-parent and two-parent households). Five waves of data were collected annually over four years from a racially/ethnically diverse sample of adolescents (N = 722, 51.5% male, baseline mean age = 14.1 years). Pearson chi-square tests for independence were used to test for significant differences in the prevalence of assets between one-parent and two-parent households. Generalized linear mixed models were used to identify prospective associations between 17 youth assets and ATODU while stratifying by family structure and controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. Compared to adolescents living in one-parent households, adolescents living in two-parent households were significantly more likely to possess six of 17 assets. Among adolescents living in one-parent households, those who possessed any one of eight youth assets were significantly less likely to use ATODU. Among adolescents living in one-parent households, those with any one of seven assets were significantly less likely to use ATODU. Family- and community-level assets had the most significant asset/ATODU associations for adolescents living in one-parent households (AORs ranged from 0.23 to 0.61). Individual-level assets had the most significant asset/ATODU associations for adolescents living in two-parent households (AORs ranged from 0.38 to 0.60). The results suggest that developing asset-based interventions tailored to the adolescents' family structure may be useful in preventing adolescents from engaging in ATODU.

Increasing lifetime and past 30-day marijuana use among middle school students regardless of recreational marijuana sales.

PURPOSE: This study investigated whether adult use marijuana sales were associated with changes in lifetime and past 30-day (P30D) marijuana use among middle school students in Nevada (NV), which had adult-use marijuana sales during the study period, compared to New Mexico (NM), which did not have adult-use marijuana sales during the study period. METHODS: Data were drawn from the middle school 2017 and 2019 NV Youth Risk Behavior and NM Youth Risk and Resiliency Surveys. Difference-in-difference analyses compare changes in lifetime and P30D marijuana use in NV (adult-use sales implemented July 2017) vs. NM (no adult-use sales during the study period). RESULTS: There was no difference in lifetime (aOR 1.11; 95% CI 0.91,1.36) and P30D (aOR 1.17; 95% CI 0.91,1.51) marijuana use by adult-use sales status. The odds of lifetime and P30D marijuana use increased in both states, particularly among students who were female, older, non-White, or attending a Title 1 school. DISCUSSION: Adult-use sales were not associated with an increase in lifetime or P30D marijuana use. State-level prevention efforts should focus on sub-populations with increasing lifetime and P30D use regardless of adult-use sales status.

How factors present during the immediate interrogation situation produce short-sighted confession decisions.

Suspects have a preexisting vulnerability to make short-sighted confession decisions, giving disproportionate weight to proximal, rather than distal, consequences. The findings of the current research provided evidence that this preexisting vulnerability is exacerbated by factors that are associated with the immediate interrogation situation. In Experiment 1 (N = 118), a lengthy interview exacerbated participants' tendency to temporally discount a distal consequence when deciding whether or not to admit to criminal and unethical behaviors. This effect was especially pronounced among less serious behaviors. In Experiment 2 (N = 177), participants' tendency to temporally discount a distal consequence when making admission decisions was exacerbated by the expectation of a lengthy interview; an effect that became stronger the longer the interview continued. These findings suggest that conditions of the immediate interrogation situation may capitalize on an already-present vulnerability among suspects to make short-sighted confession decisions, thereby increasing the chances that even innocent suspects might confess.

Innocence and resisting confession during interrogation: effects on physiologic activity.

Innocent suspects may not adequately protect themselves during interrogation because they fail to fully appreciate the danger of the situation. This experiment tested whether innocent suspects experience less stress during interrogation than guilty suspects, and whether refusing to confess expends physiologic resources. After experimentally manipulating innocence and guilt, 132 participants were accused and interrogated for misconduct, and then pressured to confess. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and preejection period (PEP) responses quantified stress reactions. As hypothesized, the innocent evidenced smaller stress responses to interrogation for SBP, DBP, HR, and RSA than did the guilty. Furthermore, innocents who refused to confess exhibited greater sympathetic nervous system activation, as evidenced by shorter PEPs, than did innocent or guilty confessors. These findings suggest that innocent suspects underestimate the threat of interrogation and that resisting pressures to confess can diminish suspects' physiologic resources and lead to false confessions.

Longitudinal associations between moral injury perceptions and mental health among healthcare workers during the pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic strained the healthcare system and resulted in higher rates of potentially morally injurious events. These events are perceived as violating one's own moral code, so a more precise construct label could be moral injury perceptions (MIPs). MIPs may exacerbate stress-related symptoms. However, consistent with the broader literature on mood-congruent cognitive bias, stress symptoms may also exacerbate MIPs. To test this bidirectional hypothesis, we examined the relationship between MIPs and stress symptoms among healthcare workers during the first year of the pandemic. METHOD: Online questionnaires for MIPs and stress-related symptoms (i.e., pandemic-related posttraumatic stress [PTSS], perceived stress, depression, and anxiety) were completed in April/May 2020 (time point one [T1]; N = 184), 1 month later (time point 2 [T2]; N = 135), and 6 months later (time point three [T3]; N = 112). RESULTS: Findings from cross-lagged panel modeling favored unidirectional models, but the direction of the relationship varied by symptom type. Perceived stress, PTSS, and depression, all predicted increased MIPs at a later time point. However, in a reversal of direction, MIPs predicted increased anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that MIPs may function as both a predictor and an outcome of stress-related symptoms. Mood-congruent cognitive biases could account for why depression, PTSS, and perceived stress predicted subsequent MIPs, whereas MIPs may have exacerbated more generalized anxiety about the future. Broadly, these findings highlight the importance of early access to mental health services for healthcare workers during public health crises to disrupt the relationship between MIPs and stress-related symptoms. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluating classification performance: Receiver operating characteristic and expected utility.

One primary advantage of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is considered to be its ability to quantify classification performance independently of factors such as prior probabilities and utilities of classification outcomes. This article argues the opposite. When evaluating classification performance, ROC analysis should consider prior probabilities and utilities. By developing expected utility lines (EU lines), this article shows the connection between a classifier's ROC curve and expected utility of classification. In particular, EU lines can be used to estimate expected utilities when classifiers operate at any ROC point for any given prior probabilities and utilities. EU lines are useful across all situations-no matter if one examines a single classifier or compares multiple classifiers, if one compares classifiers' potential to maximize expected utilities or classifiers' actual expected utilities, and if the ROC curves are full or partial, continuous or discrete. The connection between ROC and expected utility analyses reveals the common objective underlying these two methods: to maximize expected utility of classification. Particularly, ROC analysis is useful in choosing an optimal classifier and its optimal operating point to maximize expected utility. Yet, choosing a classifier and its operating point (i.e., changing conditional probabilities) is not the only way to increase expected utility. Inspired by parameters involved in estimating expected utility, this article also discusses other approaches to increase expected utility beyond ROC analysis. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Distress Tolerance and Emotion Regulation as Potential Mediators Between Secondary Traumatic Stress and Maladaptive Coping.

The extant literature has illustrated that protective service workers experience negative repercussions associated with their job (including the development of secondary traumatic stress; STS) and may utilize maladaptive coping mechanisms. Developing an improved understanding of factors that might explain the relationship between STS and the utilization of maladaptive coping mechanisms is warranted. This study sought to examine emotion regulation and distress tolerance as potential mediators between STS and the utilization of maladaptive coping mechanisms. Participants were 152 elder protective service workers and 105 child protective service workers who completed an online survey of self-report measures of emotion regulation, distress tolerance, STS, and coping behaviors. A parallel multiple mediator model was analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the hypothesis that distress tolerance and emotion regulation would mediate the relationship between STS and the utilization of maladaptive coping. Our hypothesis was partially supported as the effect of STS on maladaptive coping was mediated by emotion regulation but not by distress tolerance. The results from this study have both prevention and intervention implications. From a prevention perspective, efforts could be directed at teaching emotion regulation skills to those at risk for developing STS as a mechanism for decreasing the probability of denial, substance use, behavioral disengagement, and self-blame that may occur as a consequence of STS. From an intervention perspective, some of the negative sequelae of exposure to STS may be averted by teaching EPS and CPS workers who present with STS symptoms, emotion regulation skills.

The association of distress tolerance and mindful awareness with mental health in first responders.

Mindful awareness (MA) and distress tolerance are emerging as robust predictors of mental health in populations with high levels of stress and trauma exposure, such as first responders. The combination of both protective factors may have potentiating benefits for mental health. First responders might especially benefit from high levels of MA if they are able to tolerate distressing present-moment experiences as needed. In this study, cross-sectional data were used to test whether distress intolerance (DI) moderated the relationship between MA and mental health. First responders (N = 176) completed an online assessment battery including measures of MA (Mindful Attention Awareness Scale), DI (Distress Intolerance Index), and mental health outcomes (i.e., Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale; Posttraumatic Stress Disorder [PTSD] Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition [DSM-5]; Secondary Traumatic Stress Scale; abbreviated Maslach Burnout Inventory; compassion satisfaction subscale of the Professional Quality of Life Scale; Satisfaction with Life Scale; and Brief Resilience Scale). Multiple regression models demonstrated that among first responders with higher DI, MA had a stronger association with lower anxiety and depression symptoms. Interactions between MA and DI were not significant for other outcome measures. However, higher MA and lower DI each independently predicted lower stress (lower posttraumatic stress, secondary traumatic stress, and general stress); higher MA independently predicted better occupational health (lower burnout and higher compassion satisfaction); and lower DI independently predicted positive mental health (greater resilience and life satisfaction). Results highlight the independent associations of high MA and low DI with first responders' mental health and underscore the importance of studying of interventions that promote both of these protective factors in first responders. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).