Effects of dairy products, calcium and vitamin D on ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of twenty-nine epidemiological studies.

Findings for the roles of dairy products, Ca and vitamin D on ovarian cancer risk remain controversial. We aimed to assess these associations by using an updated meta-analysis. Five electronic databases (e.g. PubMed and Embase) were searched from inception to 24 December 2019. Pooled relative risks (RR) with 95 % CI were calculated. A total of twenty-nine case-control or cohort studies were included. For comparisons of the highest v. lowest intakes, higher whole milk intake was associated with increased ovarian cancer risk (RR 1·35; 95 % CI 1·15, 1·59), whereas decreased risks were observed for higher intakes of low-fat milk (RR 0·84; 95 % CI 0·73, 0·96), dietary Ca (RR 0·71; 95 % CI 0·60, 0·84) and dietary vitamin D (RR 0·80; 95 % CI 0·67, 0·95). Additionally, for every 100 g/d increment, increased ovarian cancer risks were found for total dairy products (RR 1·03; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·04) and for whole milk (RR 1·07; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·11); however, decreased risks were found for 100 g/d increased intakes of low-fat milk (RR 0·95; 95 % CI 0·91, 0·99), cheese (RR 0·87; 95 % CI 0·76, 0·98), dietary Ca (RR 0·96; 95 % CI 0·95, 0·98), total Ca (RR 0·98; 95 % CI 0·97, 0·99), dietary vitamin D (RR 0·92; 95 % CI 0·87, 0·97) and increased levels of circulating vitamin D (RR 0·84; 95 % CI 0·72, 0·97). These results show that whole milk intake might contribute to a higher ovarian cancer risk, whereas low-fat milk, dietary Ca and dietary vitamin D might reduce the risk.

Rapid increase of scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2014.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China. METHODS: Based on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the epidemiological features, and identified environmental determinants for the spatial distribution of ST using a panel negative binomial model. RESULTS: A total of 4821 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangzhou during 2006-2014. The annual incidence increased noticeably and the increase was relatively high and rapid in rural townships and among elderly females. The majority of cases (86.8%) occurred during May-October, and farmers constituted the majority of the cases, accounting for 33.9% in urban and 61.6% in rural areas. The number of housekeeper patients had a rapid increment in both rural and urban areas during the study period. Atmospheric pressure and relative humidity with lags of 1 or 2 months, distributions of broadleaved forest and rural township were identified as determinants for the spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on the elderly farmers in rural areas covered with broadleaf forest in southern China.

The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever(DF) cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China. METHODS: The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index (BI), and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases. RESULTS: A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month's BI, average temperature (Tave), previous month's minimum temperature (Tmin), and Tave were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25 °C was found in the relationship between the current month's Tmin and DF incidence. CONCLUSION: Mosquito density, Tave, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic.

Dengue Fever epidemiological status and relationship with meteorological variables in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2007-2012.

Ecological methodology plus negative binomial regression were used to identify dengue fever (DF) epidemiological status and its relationship with meteorological variables. From 2007 to 2012, annual incidence rate of DF in Guangzhou was 0.33, 0.11, 0.15, 0.64, 0.45, and 1.34 (per 100 00) respectively, showing an increasing trend. Each 1° C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 10.23% (95% Cl 7.68% to 12.83%) in the monthly number of DF cases, whereas 1 hPa rise of atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 5.14% (95% Cl: 7.10%-3.14%). Likewise, each one meter per second rise in wind velocity led to an increase by 43.80% or 107.53%, and one percent rise of relative humidity led to an increase by 2.04% or 2.19%.

[Study on epidemic characteristics and etiology of community acquired pneumonia in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2012].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the epidemic characteristics and pathogenic spectrum of community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2012. METHOD: 14 major comprehensive hospitals were selected from 11 districts as sentinel hospitals for CAP cases surveillance, including 18 982 223 in total during the 4 years. The characteristics of pathogenic spectrum of CAP were stratified and analyzed by year, age and season. RESULTS: 18 982 223 cases were included in the surveillance from year 2009 to 2012, in which 56 618 cases were CAP. The number of CAP cases increased from 8677 in year 2009 to 19 947 in year 2012 in Guangzhou; while the percentage of visits for CAP raised from 0.22% (8677/3 893 800) to 0.41% (19 947/4 839 766). The difference showed statistical significance (χ(2) = 2693.00, P < 0.05). Among the hospitalized CAP cases, 66.05% (10 954/16 585) were aged ≤ 5 years old or > 66 years old. The percentage of cases infected by a single pathogen was 88.11% (14 613/16 585), while co-infected cases accounted for 4.17% (691/16 585). Bacteria accounted for the largest proportion of 65.25% (10 821/16 585) as a single pathogen, followed by mycoplasma 13.54% (2245/16 585), virus 9.01% (1494/16 585) and chlamydia 0.32% (53/16 585). The proportion of virus infection was increasing from 4.74% to 11.64%. The difference showed statistical significance (χ(2) = 135.32, P < 0.05). Bacteria infection was the leading causes for CAP cases in all age groups; however the percentage increased with the increasing of ages. The rate of bacterial infection was increased from 48.35% (2993/6191) among children aged ≤ 5 years old to 81.31% (3873/4763) among adults aged over 65 years (χ(2) = 1632.00, P < 0.05). The rate of atypical pathogens (mycoplasma, chlamydia) for children ( ≤ 15 years old) (25.99%, 1805/6945) was higher than that for adults aged ≥ 16 years old (5.12%, 494/9640) (χ(2) = 2.11, P < 0.05). The effect from season on the pathogenic spectrum was not observed.433 hospitalized CAP cases were dead from 2009 to 2012. Case fatality rate was highest among people aged over 65 years old (4.70%, 224/4763) and lowest among children aged between 6 to 15 years old (0.27%, 2/754). CONCLUSION: The incidence of community acquired pneumonia was rising in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2012. Bacteria was the dominant pathogen. Children and old people were the high-risk population of community acquired pneumonia; while co-infection was still at low level.

Emergence of dengue virus 4 genotype II in Guangzhou, China, 2010: survey and molecular epidemiology of one community outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The re-emergence of dengue virus 4 (DENV-4) has become a public health concern in South America, Southeast Asia and South Asia. However, it has not been known to have caused a local outbreak in China for the past 20 years. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the epidemiology of one local community outbreak caused by DENV-4 in Guangzhou city, China, in 2010; and to determine the molecular characteristics of the genotype II virus involved. CASE PRESENTATIONS: During September and October of 2010, one imported case, a Guangzhou resident who travelled back from Thailand, resulted in 18 secondary autochthonous cases in Guangzhou City, with an incidence rate of 5.53 per 10,000 residents. In indigenous cases, 14 serum samples tested positive for IgM against DENV and 7 for IgG from a total of 15 submitted serum samples, accompanied by 5 DENV-4 isolates. With identical envelope gene nucleotide sequences, the two isolates (D10168-GZ from the imported index case and Guangzhou 10660 from the first isolate in the autochthonous cases) were grouped into DENV-4 genotype II after comparison to 32 previous DENV-4 isolates from GenBank that originated from different areas. CONCLUSIONS: Based on epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses, the outbreak, which was absent for 20 years after the DENV-4 genotype I outbreak in 1990, was confirmed as DENV-4 genotype II and initially traced to the imported index case, a Guangzhou resident who travelled back from Thailand.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for severe scrub typhus in pediatric and elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus (ST) is a life-threatening infectious disease if appropriate treatment is unavailable. Large discrepancy of clinical severity of ST patients was reported among age groups, and the underlying risk factors for severe disease are unclear. METHODS: Clinical and epidemiological data of ST patients were collected in 55 surveillance hospitals located in Guangzhou City, China, from 2012 to 2018. Severe prognosis and related factors were determined and compared between pediatric and elderly patients. RESULTS: A total of 2,074 ST patients including 209 pediatric patients and 1,865 elderly patients were included, with a comparable disease severity rate of 11.0% (95% CI 7.1%-16.1%) and 10.3% (95% CI 9.0%-11.8%). Different frequencies of clinical characteristics including lymphadenopathy, skin rash, enlarged tonsils, etc. were observed between pediatric and elderly patients. Presence of peripheral edema and decreased hemoglobin were the most important predictors of severe illness in pediatric patients with adjusted ORs by 38.99 (9.96-152.67, p<0.001) and 13.22 (1.54-113.50, p = 0.019), respectively, while presence of dyspnea and increased total bilirubin were the potential determinants of severe disease in elderly patients with adjusted ORs by 11.69 (7.33-18.64, p<0.001) and 3.17 (1.97-5.11, p<0.001), respectively. Compared with pediatric patients, elderly patients were more likely to receive doxycycline (64.8% v.s 9.9%, p<0.001), while less likely to receive azithromycin therapy (5.0% v.s 41.1%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The disease severity rate is comparable between pediatric and elderly ST patients, while different clinical features and laboratory indicators were associated with development of severe complications for pediatric and elderly patients, which is helpful for diagnosis and progress assessment of disease for ST patients.

Clinical outcomes of doxycycline, azithromycin and chloramphenicol for the treatment of patients with severe scrub typhus.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have evaluated treatment efficacy of various antibiotics for patients with mild-to-moderate scrub typhus (ST). However, the efficacy of different antibiotics for treating severe ST remains uncertain. METHODS: A retrospective study of patients with severe ST was undertaken in China. The treatment efficacy rates of doxycycline, azithromycin and chloramphenicol were compared, using treatment failure and time to defervescence as primary outcomes. RESULTS: In total, 876 patients with severe ST who initially received doxycycline, azithromycin or chloramphenicol were recruited. The treatment failure rate did not differ significantly between patients receiving doxycycline and patients receiving azithromycin (6.0% vs 11.4%; P=0.109). However, a higher treatment failure rate was observed for chloramphenicol compared with doxycycline (14.6% vs 6.0%; P=0.004). No significant difference in time to defervescence was observed between patients receiving doxycycline, azithromycin or chloramphenicol. Further subgroup analysis revealed a higher risk of treatment failure for chloramphenicol compared with doxycycline in patients with acute kidney injury, pneumonia and shock; and a higher risk of treatment failure for azithromycin compared with doxycycline in patients with meningitis. Significant correlation was found between azithromycin resistance and meningitis (P=0.009), and between chloramphenicol resistance and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (P<0.001) using Cramer's V correlation coefficient. Multi-variate Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between time to defervescence and presence of ARDS, shock, myocarditis, meningitis and acute kidney injury. CONCLUSION: Azithromycin and doxycycline were found to have significant therapeutic effects in patients with severe ST. In contast, chloramphenicol was less efficacious for the treatment of these patients.

[A case-control study of an influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in a hospital].

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the epidemiological factors of an influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in a hospital. METHODS: General data were collected via face-to-face interview and telephone survey. Total 132 individuals including medical and nursing staffs (37), in-patients (39) and patients' family members (56) who were exposed to the pediatric surgery ward during August 11 - 18, 2009, were investigated. The case group included 35 cases according to the diagnostic criteria for influenza A (H1N1). The other 97 persons were grouped as control. A case-control study was then conducted to explore the epidemic factors, and layering analysis was applied to determine the interactions among these factors. RESULTS: The overall incidence in this study was 26.5% (35/132), which included 12 confirmed and 23 suspected cases, and there was no severe case. The first case was a child with the influenza-like symptoms before admission on August 11. The onsets of these cases were during August 7 - 17. The cases were distributed in 9 of 13 rooms, and there was no room aggregation in the cases distribution (χ(2) = 0.00, P > 0.05). Twelve of 25 oropharyngeal swabs were influenza A (H1N1) nucleic acid positive. The case-control study showed that exposure to the enema room accounted for 93.10% (27/29) in cases and 72.73% (48/66) in control; OR = 5.06, 95%CI = 1.01 - 34.23), long time exposure to ward was 71.43% (25/35) in cases and 44.33% (43/97) in control; OR = 3.14, 95%CI = 1.27 - 7.90), and short distance contact with the nurse LIU (76.46% (26/34) in cases and 50.52% (49/97) in control; OR = 3.18, 95%CI = 1.22 - 8.54) were the risk factors. However, keeping the window open (27.59% (8/29) in cases and 68.18% (45/66) in control; OR = 0.14, 95%CI = 0.05 - 0.39) and hand washing (25.71% (9/35) in cases and 76.29% (74/97) in control; OR = 0.11, 95%CI = 0.04 - 0.28) were the protective factors. The longer time exposure to ward had the higher risk (ratios of cases to control were 4:20 (0 - 1 day), 6:34 (2 - 4 days) and 25:43 (≥ 5 days); χ(2)(trend) = 5.737, P < 0.05). In contrast, hand washing with more frequencies (ratios of cases to control were 26:23 (0 - 1 time one day), 7:9 (2 - 3 times one day) and 2:65 (≥ 4 times one day); χ(2)(trend) = 37.136, P < 0.01) and the longer time window opening (ratios of cases to control were 21:21 (no), 4:13 (a few) and 4:32 (often); χ(2)(trend) = 13.830, P < 0.01) had the lower risk. Nevertheless, layering analysis excluded long time exposure to ward from the risk factors (for individuals with more frequent hand washing, 6.90% (2/29) exposed in cases, 7.14% (1/14) exposed in control, OR = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.06 - 29.51; for individuals keeping window open, 21.21% (7/33) exposed in cases, 8.33% (1/12) exposed in control, OR = 2.55, 95%CI = 0.26 - 60.87), indicating the main risk factors in this outbreak were exposure to the enema room and short distance contagion with the infected nurse. CONCLUSION: The influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in this hospital was induced by an inpatient infected with influenza A (H1N1) virus before admission. Infected medical staffs keeping on work and exposure to the same place, e.g.the enema room in this study might spread the influenza A (H1N1) virus, and frequent hand washing and keeping the window open are the most effective and economic methods to prevent influenza A (H1N1) infection.

Desulfovibrio is not always associated with adverse health effects in the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project.

Desulfovibrio (DSV) is frequently found in the human intestine but limited knowledge is available regarding the relationship between DSV and host health. In this study, we analyzed large-scale cohort data from the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project to study the ecology of DSV and the associations of DSV and host health parameters. Phylogenetic analysis showed that Desulfovibrio piger might be the most common and abundant DSV species in the GGMP. Predominant sub-OTUs of DSV were positively associated with bacterial community diversity. The relative abundance of DSV was positively correlated with beneficial genera, including Oscillospira, Coprococcus,Ruminococcus,Akkermansia, Roseburia,Faecalibacterium, andBacteroides, and was negatively associated with harmful genera, such as Clostridium,Escherichia,Klebsiella, and Ralstonia. Moreover, the relative abundance of DSV was negatively correlated with body mass index, waist size, triglyceride levels, and uric acid levels. This suggests that DSV is associated with healthy hosts in some human populations.

Association between climatic factors and varicella incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlation between climatic factors and the incidence of varicella in Guangzhou, and improve the prevention measures about public health. METHODS: Data for daily climatic variables and varicella incidence from 2006 to 2018 in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau and the National Notifiable Disease Report System. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to evaluate the association between climatic factors and varicella incidence. RESULTS: The nonlinear effects of meteorological factors were observed. At lag day21，when the mean temperature was 31.8 °C, the relative risk was the highest as 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07-1.16). When the diurnal temperature range was 24.0 °C at lag day 20, the highest RR was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.17). For rainfall, the highest RR was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.19) at lag day 21，when the aggregate rainfall was 160 mm. When air pressure was 1028 hPa, the highest RR was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04-1.13) at lag day 21. When wind speed was 0.7 m/s, the highest RR was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11) at lag day 7. When the hours of sunshine were 9.0 h at lag day 21, the RR was highest as 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05). Aggregate rainfall, air pressure, and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of varicella, which was inconsistent with the wind velocity. Mean temperature showed a reverse U-shape curve relationship with varicella, while the diurnal temperature range showed a binomial distribution curve. The extreme effect of climatic factors on the varicella cases was statistically significant, apart from the extremely low effect of rainfall. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary results offered fundamental knowledge which might be benefit to give an insight into epidemic trends of varicella and develop an early warning system. We could use our findings about influential factors to strengthen the intervention and prevention of varicella.

High Oscillospira abundance indicates constipation and low BMI in the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project.

Oscillospira is a common yet rarely cultivated gut bacterial genus. Recently human gut microbiota studies have demonstrated its underlying significance for host health. However, little is known about Oscillospira-related host information and the links between Oscillospira and other members of the gut microbial community. To study the ecology of Oscillospira and gain insights into Oscillospira-related host physiological conditions, we analyzed data from the Guangdong Gut Microbiome Project, one of the largest gut microbiota database currently. Data of 6376 participants were analyzed. We studied the prevalence and relative abundance of Oscillospira as well as the profiles of associated microbial communities. We found that Oscillospira is closely related to human health because its abundance was positively correlated with microbial diversity, high density lipoprotein, and sleep time, and was inversely correlated with diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, uric acid and Bristol stool type. Moreover, random forest analysis with five-fold cross validation showed Oscillospira could be a predictor of low BMI and constipation in the subset. Overall, in this study, we provide a basic understanding of Oscillospira-related microbiota profile and physiological parameters of the host. Our results indicate Oscillospira may play a role in aggravating constipation.

Ambient air pollution and depression: A systematic review with meta-analysis up to 2019.

Although epidemiological studies have evaluated the associations of ambient air pollution with depression, the results remained mixed. To clarify the nature of the association, we performed a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis with the Inverse Variance Heterogeneity (IVhet) model to estimate the effect of ambient air pollution on depression. Three English and four Chinese databases were searched for epidemiologic studies investigating associations of ambient particulate (diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), ≤10 µm (PM10)) and gaseous (nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3)) air pollutants with depression. Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to evaluate the strength of the associations. We identified 22 eligible studies from 10 countries of the world. Under the IVhet model, per 10 µg/m3 increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.97-1.29, I2: 51.6), PM10 (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.88-1.25, I2: 85.7), and NO2 (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.83-1.34, I2: 83.6), as well as short-term exposure to PM2.5 (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99-1.04, I2: 51.6), PM10 (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.98-1.04, I2: 86.7), SO2 (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.99-1.07, I2: 71.2), and O3 (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99-1.03, I2: 82.2) was not significantly associated with depression. However, we observed significant association between short-term NO2 exposure (per 10 µg/m3 increase) and depression (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04, I2: 65.4). However, the heterogeneity was high for all of the pooled estimates, which reduced credibility of the cumulative evidence. Additionally, publication bias was detected for six of eight meta-estimates. In conclusion, short-term exposure to NO2, but not other air pollutants, was significantly associated with depression. Given the limitations, a larger meta-analysis incorporating future well-designed longitudinal studies, and investigations into potential biologic mechanisms, will be necessary for a more definitive result.

Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants.

BACKGROUND: As of April 2, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases has crossed over 1 million with more than 55,000 deaths. The household transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen, remains elusive. METHODS: Based on a comprehensive contact-tracing dataset from Guangzhou, we estimated both the population-level effective reproductive number and individual-level secondary attack rate (SAR) in the household setting. We assessed age effects on transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. RESULTS: A total of 195 unrelated clusters with 212 primary cases, 137 nonprimary (secondary or tertiary) cases and 1938 uninfected close contacts were traced. We estimated the household SAR to be 13.8% (95% CI: 11.1-17.0%) if household contacts are defined as all close relatives and 19.3% (95% CI: 15.5-23.9%) if household contacts only include those at the same residential address as the cases, assuming a mean incubation period of 4 days and a maximum infectious period of 13 days. The odds of infection among children (<20 years old) was only 0.26 (95% CI: 0.13-0.54) times of that among the elderly (≥60 years old). There was no gender difference in the risk of infection. COVID-19 cases were at least as infectious during their incubation period as during their illness. On average, a COVID-19 case infected 0.48 (95% CI: 0.39-0.58) close contacts. Had isolation not been implemented, this number increases to 0.62 (95% CI: 0.51-0.75). The effective reproductive number in Guangzhou dropped from above 1 to below 0.5 in about 1 week. CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the elderly ≥60 years old are the most vulnerable to household transmission. Case finding and isolation alone may be inadequate to contain the pandemic and need to be used in conjunction with heightened restriction of human movement as implemented in Guangzhou.

Distribution and characteristics of Beilong virus among wild rodents and shrews in China.

Beilong virus (BeiV), a member of the newly recognized genus Jeilongvirus of family Paramyxoviridae, has been reported with limited geographic and host scopes, only in Hongkong, China and from two rat species. Here, by next-generation sequencing (NGS) on dominant wild small animal species in 4 provinces in China, we obtained a complete sequence of BeiV strain from Rattus norvegicus in Guangdong, neighboring HongKong, China. We then made an expanded epidemiological investigation in 11 provinces to obtain the geographic distribution and genetic features of this virus. Altogether 7168 samples from 2005 animals (1903 rodents, 100 shrews, 2 mustelidaes) that belonged to 33 species of Cricetidae, Muridae, Sciuridae and Dipodidae family of Rodentia, 3 species of Soricidae family of Soricomorpha, 2 species of Mustelidae family of Carnivora were examined by RT-PCR and sequencing. A positive rate of 3.7% (266/7168) was obtained that was detected from 22 animal species, including 5 species of Cricetidae family, 12 species of Muridae family, 2 species of Sciuridae family and 3 species of Soricidae family. Phylogenetic analyses based on 154 partial Large gene sequences grouped the current BeiV into two lineages, that were related to their geographic regions and animal hosts. Our study showed the wide distribution of BeiV in common species of wild rodents and shrews in China, highlighting the necessity of epidemiological study in wider regions.

Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: As of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. FINDINGS: Between Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8-15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3-21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio [OR] 0·23 [95% CI 0·11-0·46]) and among adults aged 20-59 years (OR 0·64 [95% CI 0·43-0·97]). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·27-1·38]). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41-0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49-0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.

[Risk assessment of H5N1 human infection after an outbreak of avian influenza in water fowl].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of human infection after the outbreak of avian influenza H5N1 in animals, and probe the possibility for virus transmission. METHODS: By means of field epidemiological study, molecular epidemiology, serology and emergency surveillance, persons who had ever closely contacted with sick or dead poultry were observed. While, the RT-PCR and gene sequencing method were used to detect H5 nucleic acid from environmental swabs from 4 epidemic spots, and hemagglutination inhibition assay was also used to detect H5 antibody. RESULTS: Of 22 environmental swabs detected from 4 epidemic spots, one was positive for H5 nucleic acid, and the homogeneity was 95.9% as compared with H5N1 virus A/China/GD01/2006 (H5N1) found in Guangzhou in 2006 by gene sequence analysis. 62 environmental swabs from live poultry stalls of food markets near epidemic spot were detected negative. Six of 68 blood samples of contacts were positive for H9 antibody, and all were negative for H5 antibody. 68 throat swabs of contacts were detected negative for H5 nucleic acid. No close contact was found abnormal after 7 days medical observation. 337 influenza-like cases were reported in emergency surveillance, and no suspicious case was found. CONCLUSION: The current outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in water fowls has not yet caused further transmission, and human avian influenza case has not been observed. It indicates that the ability of H5N1 virus to transmit to human is not strong yet, and the risk of human infection for H5N1 is still low.

[Investigation on a seasonal influenza accompanying with the first locale novel A/H1N1 influenza outbreak in China].

OBJECTIVE: To timely summarize past experience and to provide more pertinent reference for control and prevention in A/H1N1 cases in influenza season. METHODS: During May 25 to 31, 2009, 2 secondary community cases caused by a influenza A/H1N1 imported case. In the close contacts of 3 A/H1N1 cases, 14 had some aspirator symptoms onset, such as fever (> or = 37.5 degrees C), cough, sore throat and etc. Laboratory tests excluded the infection of A/H1N1 influenza. For throat swab test for the 14 cases, 7 were tested for seasonal influenza virus. A face-to-face or telephone interview was conducted by CDC staff to collect information of 62 close contacts. RESULTS: Of 14 fever cases, there was no significant by differences by age[15-age group: 19.2% (5/26), over 25-age group: 25.0% (9/36); chi(2) = 0.287, P = 0.592]; by sex group [24.0% (6/25) for male and 21.6% (8/37) for female; chi(2) = 0.048, P = 0.826], by working units [dressing and design, photograph, saleroom and others, consumer group: 42.1% (8/19), 27.3% (3/11), 12.5% (2/16) and 6.3% (1/16); chi(2) = 7.653, P = 0.054], by dormitory style [dormitory style = 33.3% (4/12), non-dormitory style = 29.4% (10/34); chi(2) = 0.699, P = 0.403]. All the cases had fever (37.5 - 37.9 degrees C), no case had diarrhea. One in 3 A/H1N1 cases had diarrhea. All the 14 cases were negative result for A/H1N1 RNA. Six from 7 cases were positive for seasonal influenza test. CONCLUSION: This was a seasonal influenza outbreak happened in the close contacts of first confirmed A/H1N1 cases in community in mainland China. It showed that we should exclude the seasonal influenza in the investigation of A/H1N1 cases in the seasonal influenza period in some time. It is necessary to take effective measure to strengthen the control and prevention of seasonal influenza.

Effect of meteorological factors on scarlet fever incidence in Guangzhou City, Southern China, 2006-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and scarlet fever incidence from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou, the largest subtropical city of Southern China, and assist public health prevention and control measures. METHODS: Data for weekly scarlet fever incidence and meteorological variables from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) and the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau (GZMB). Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effect of meteorological factors on weekly scarlet fever incidence in Guangzhou. RESULTS: We observed nonlinear effects of temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity. The risk was the highest when the weekly mean temperature was 31 °C during lag week 14, yielding a relative risk (RR) of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.01-2.17). When relative humidity was 43.5% during lag week 0, the RR was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.04-2.12); the highest RR (1.55, 95% CI: 1.20-1.99) was reached when relative humidity was 93.5% during lag week 20. When wind velocity was 4.4 m/s during lag week 13, the RR was highest at 3.41 (95% CI: 1.57-7.44). Positive correlations were observed among weekly temperature ranges and atmospheric pressure with scarlet fever incidence, while a negative correlation was detected with aggregate rainfall. The cumulative extreme effect of meteorological variables on scarlet fever incidence was statistically significant, except for the high effect of wind velocity. CONCLUSION: Weekly mean temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity had double-trough effects on scarlet fever incidence; high weekly temperature range, high atmospheric pressure, and low aggregate rainfall were risk factors for scarlet fever morbidity. Our findings provided preliminary, but fundamental, information that may be useful for a better understanding of epidemic trends of scarlet fever and for developing an early warning system. Laboratory surveillance for scarlet fever should be strengthened in the future.