Inferring China's excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic using online mourning and funeral search volume.

We construct a mourning and funeral index, using online search volume for "wreath and elegiac couplet", "obituary", "mortuary house", "cinerary casket", "cremation" and "pass away", to infer excess cases of mortality in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 3-month period (December 2022-February 2023) after China ended its Zero-COVID policy, there were around 712 thousand excess cases of mortality. These excess cases of mortality, bench marked against the 2-year period preceding the pandemic, could be directly or indirectly related to COVID-19. During the 35-month Zero-COVID regime (January 2020-November 2022), the excess death toll was a negative 1480 thousand. Overall, by delaying the surge in infections, China might have saved 767 thousand lives. While these estimates are based on various assumptions and can be imprecise, China's COVID-19 experience could reasonably be characterized by a sharp surge in deaths after its departure from Zero-COVID and a steady pattern of lives saved during the Zero-COVID regime.

Could more innovation output bring better financial performance? The role of financial constraints.

Innovation scholars highlight the economic benefits to firms, while research findings on the relationship between innovation output and economic returns remain mixed. In this study, we develop the profiting from innovation (PFI) framework and address the crucial role of financial constraints in the relationship between innovation output and financial performance. We argue that the liability of newness differentiates firms' financial performance during the commercialization of innovation, leading to a U-shaped relationship between firms' innovation output and financial performance. We further document the moderating impact of individual financial constraints (IFC) and market-based financial constraints (MFC) on this curvilinear relationship. Empirical tests based on the 142,972 firm-year observations of the multi-source dataset of Chinese manufacturing firms from 1999-2009 support our hypotheses. The additional analysis shows that non-state-owned enterprises and small and medium enterprises benefit more from the synergistic effect of reductions of IFC and MFC than state-owned enterprises and large firms. Our study enriches the literature of the PFI framework by uncovering the mechanism between innovation output and economic returns where financial constraints play an essential role. To the best of our knowledge, we are among the first to investigate the processes and mechanisms between innovation output and financial performance, generating novel insights for business practitioners and policymakers.