Aortoiliac calcification correlates with 5-year survival after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

BACKGROUND: An anatomic severity grade (ASG) score to categorize and to define anatomic factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair was proposed. Other studies have previously reported that aortic anatomic complexity is a marker of survival and resource utilization after repair, although it remains unclear whether individual components of the ASG score independently contribute to survival. This study analyzed and validated an aortic and iliac artery calcium scoring system that can potentially predict survival after AAA repair. METHODS: Patients who underwent infrarenal AAA repairs from July 2007 to May 2012 were analyzed using complete 5-year records. Those who died ≤30 days of surgery were excluded. Calcium score (CS) was defined using the ASG scoring system for its basis by preoperative imaging <6 months before surgery. A CS for any patient was 0 to 5 points, the sum of the points assigned to aortic neck (2 points total) and iliac artery (3 points total) calcification. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a CS threshold for mortality. The 5-year survivors and deaths were compared in regard to comorbidities, pharmacology, and CS at or above the defined threshold. Each variable with a P value <.1 between the groups was then placed into a Cox proportional hazards model, with statistical significance of P < .05. RESULTS: There were 356 patients who underwent AAA repair with complete 5-year follow-up data; 26% died within 5 years of surgery. Of these, 13% had CS of 0 with 15% mortality, 28% had CS of 1 with 21% mortality, 24% had CS of 2 with 24% mortality, 23% had CS of 3 with 35% mortality, 10% had CS of 4 with 40% mortality, and 2% had CS of 5 with 17% mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an appropriate threshold of CS 3. Of these patients, 65% had a CS <3, whereas 35% had a CS ≥3. Patients with a CS ≥3 had a lower 5-year survival probability (P = .003). Comparing 5-year survivors and deaths in a Cox proportional hazards analysis, CS ≥3 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.579 (95% confidence interval, 1.038-2.402; P = .0328). CONCLUSIONS: A CS ≥3 is linked to a lower 5-year survival after AAA repair in our population. This system potentially can be another measure for risk stratification and serve as a means to predict midterm mortality in AAA repairs. Future study will be needed for further validation to predict midterm mortality and to better guide surgical decision-making.

Aortic Anatomic Severity Grade Correlates with Midterm Mortality in Patients Undergoing Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

BACKGROUND: Anatomic severity grade (ASG) can be used to assess abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) anatomic complexity. High ASG is associated with complications following endovascular repair of AAAs and we have demonstrated that ASG correlates with resource utilization. The hypothesis of this study is that ASG is directly related to midterm mortality in patients undergoing AAA repair. METHODS: Patients who underwent infrarenal AAA repairs between July 2007 and August 2014 were retrospectively reviewed and ASG scores were calculated using 3-dimensional computed tomography reconstructions. Perioperative mortalities (≤30 days) were excluded. The ASG value of 15 was chosen based on previous receiver-operator curve analysis, which showed that an ASG of 15 was predictive of postoperative complications and resource utilization. The 5-year survivors and mortalities were compared utilizing comorbidities, pharmacologic variables, and anatomic variables at or above the defined threshold. RESULTS: A total of 402 patients (80% male and 96% Caucasian) with complete anatomic and survival data were included in the analysis. Mean ASG and age at the time of repair were 16 ± 0.15 and 73 ± 0.43 years old, respectively. The 5-year mortality was significantly associated with ASG >15 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.504, confidence interval [CI]: 1.077-2.100, P < .017), hyperlipidemia (HR: 1.987, CI: 1.341-2.946, P < .001), coronary artery disease (HR: 1.432, CI: 1.037-1.978, P < .029), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR: 1.412, CI: 1.027-1.943, P < .034). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated improved survival in the low score ASG ≤15 group at 1, 3, and 5 years (96% vs 93%, 81% vs 69%, and 53% vs 41%; P = .0182; Figure 1). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing aortic anatomic complexity as characterized by ASG >15 is an independent predictor of midterm mortality following elective infrarenal AAA repair. Therefore, it may be a useful tool for appropriate patient selection and risk stratification prior to elective infrarenal AAA repair.