Predicting ischaemic stroke subtype from presenting systolic blood pressure: the BASIC Project.

OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that low presenting systolic blood pressure (SBP) predicted cardioembolic stroke aetiology. DESIGN: Active and passive surveillance were used to identify all ischaemic strokes as part of the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) population-based study. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between stroke subtype and first documented SBP in the medical record. SETTING: Nueces County, TX, USA (313,645 residents in 2000). The community is urban with the majority of the population residing in the city of Corpus Christi. The area is served by seven adult acute care hospitals. PATIENTS: Three hundred and eight cases with completed ischaemic stroke and determined subtype aetiology between January 2000 and December 2002. RESULTS: Lower presenting SBP was associated with stroke subtype (P = 0.001). This association remained significant in the final model adjusted for age and history of coronary artery disease. The odds of cardioembolic versus small vessel occlusion increased by 20% (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.07-1.35) for every 10 mmHg decrease in presenting SBP. Other covariates including race/ethnicity, gender, history of hypertension, and diabetes were neither significant predictors of stroke subtype, nor did they confound the association of SBP and stroke subtype. A 5 year increase in age increased the odds of cardioembolic subtype by 25% (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.07-1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Lower initial SBP and older age at ischaemic stroke presentation were associated with cardioembolic stroke. Suspicion of cardioembolic stroke should be increased in those presenting with low SBP.

Do-not-resuscitate orders and predictive models after intracerebral hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the accuracy of commonly used intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) predictive models in ICH patients with and without early do-not-resuscitate orders (DNR). METHODS: Spontaneous ICH cases (n = 487) from the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi study (2000-2003) and the University of California, San Francisco (June 2001-May 2004) were included. Three models (the ICH Score, the Cincinnati model, and the ICH grading scale [ICH-GS]) were compared to observed 30-day mortality with a chi(2) goodness-of-fit test first overall and then stratified by early DNR orders. RESULTS: Median age was 71 years, 49% were female, median Glasgow Coma Scale score was 12, median ICH volume was 13 cm(3), and 35% had early DNR orders. Overall observed 30-day mortality was 42.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 38.3-47.1), with the average model-predicted 30-day mortality for the ICH Score, Cincinnati model, and ICH-GS at 39.9% (p = 0.005), 40.4% (p = 0.007), and 53.9% (p < 0.001). However, for patients with early DNR orders, the observed 30-day mortality was 83.5% (95% CI 78.0-89.1), with the models predicting mortality of 64.8% (p < 0.001), 57.2% (p < 0.001), and 77.8% (p = 0.02). For patients without early DNR orders, the observed 30-day mortality was 20.8% (95% CI 16.5-25.7), with the models predicting mortality of 26.6% (p = 0.05), 31.4% (p < 0.001), and 41.1% (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ICH prognostic model performance is substantially impacted when stratifying by early DNR status, possibly giving a false sense of model accuracy when DNR status is not considered. Clinicians should be cautious when applying these predictive models to individual patients.

Early care limitations independently predict mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with a high early mortality rate. We examined the impact of early do not resuscitate (DNR) orders and other limitations in aggressive care on mortality after ICH in a community-based study. METHODS: Cases of spontaneous ICH from 2000 to 2003 were identified from the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, with deaths ascertained through 2005. Charts were reviewed for early (<24 hours from presentation) DNR orders, withdrawal of care, or deferral of other life sustaining interventions, analyzed together as combined DNR (C-DNR). Multivariable Cox-proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between short- and long-term all-cause mortality and early C-DNR, adjusted for demographics and established predictors of mortality after ICH. RESULTS: Of 18,393 subjects screened for cerebrovascular disease, 270 non-traumatic ICH cases were included. Cumulative mortality risk was 0.43 at 30 days and 0.55 over the study course. Early C-DNR was noted in 34% of cases and was associated with a doubling in the hazard of death both at 30 days (hazard ratio [HR] 2.17, 95% CI 1.38, 3.41) and at end of follow-up (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.29, 2.87) despite adjustment for age, gender, ethnicity, Glasgow Coma Scale, ICH volume, intraventricular hemorrhage, and infratentorial hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Early care limitations are independently associated with both short- and long-term all-cause mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) despite adjustment for expected predictors of ICH mortality. Physicians should carefully consider the effect of early limitations in aggressive care to avoid limiting care for patients who may survive their acute illness.

Differences in intracerebral hemorrhage between Mexican Americans and non-Hispanic whites.

BACKGROUND: Mexican Americans (MAs) have higher incidence rates of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) than non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). The authors present clinical and imaging characteristics of ICH in MAs and NHWs in a population-based study. METHODS: This work is part of the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project. Cases of nontraumatic ICH were identified from 2000 to 2003. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the independent associations between ethnicity and ICH location (lobar vs nonlobar) and volume (> or = 30 vs < 30 mL), adjusting for demographics and baseline clinical characteristics. Logistic regression was also used to determine the association between ethnicity and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: A total of 149 MAs and 111 NHWs with ICH were identified. MAs were younger (70 vs 77, p < 0.001), more often male (55% vs 42%, p = 0.04), had a lower prevalence of atrial fibrillation (2.0% vs 13%, p < 0.001), and a higher prevalence of diabetes (39% vs 19%, p < 0.001). MA ethnicity was independently associated with nonlobar hemorrhage (OR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.15, 3.70). MAs had over two times the odds of having small (< 30 mL) hemorrhages compared with NHWs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.31, 4.46). NHWs had higher in-hospital mortality, though this association was no longer significant after adjustment for ICH volume, location, age, and sex. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant differences in the characteristics of ICH in MAs and NHWs, with MA patients more likely to have smaller, nonlobar hemorrhages. These differences may be used to examine the underlying pathophysiology of ICH.

Presentation of intracerebral haemorrhage in a community.

BACKGROUND: Studies on intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) from tertiary care centres may not be an accurate representation of the true spectrum of disease presentation. OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical and imaging presentation of ICH in a community devoid of the referral bias of an academic medical centre; and to investigate factors associated with lower Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score at presentation, as GCS is crucial to early clinical decision making. METHODS: The study formed part of the BASIC project (Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi), a population based stroke surveillance study in a bi-ethnic Texas community. Cases of first non-traumatic ICH were identified from years 2000 to 2003, using active and passive surveillance. Clinical data were collected from medical records by trained abstractors, and all computed tomography (CT) scans were reviewed by a study physician. Multivariable linear regression was used to identify clinical and CT predictors of a lower GCS score. RESULTS: 260 cases of non-traumatic ICH were identified. Median ICH volume was 11 ml (interquartile range 3 to 36) with hydrocephalus noted in 45%. Median initial GCS score was 12.5 (7 to 15). Hydrocephalus score (p = 0.0014), ambient cistern effacement (p = 0.0002), ICH volume (p = 0.014), and female sex (p = 0.024) were independently associated with lower GCS score at presentation, adjusting for other variables. CONCLUSIONS: ICH has a wide range of severity at presentation. Hydrocephalus is a potentially reversible cause of a lower GCS score. Since early withdrawal of care decisions are often based on initial GCS, recognition of the important influence of hydrocephalus on GCS is warranted before withdrawal of care decisions are made.

Asymptomatic middle cerebral artery stenosis diagnosed by magnetic resonance angiography.

We reviewed 1440 MRA studies to identify patients with middle cerebral artery stenosis (MCAS). We identified 99 cases, and after reviewing the clinical records, classified 28 as asymptomatic MCAS (AMCAS), a prevalence of 2%. Suspected stroke was the most frequent indication for MRA. Follow-up was available for 21, mean 46.7 months (range 2.4-75.6 months). One stroke occurred in the AMCAS territory (5%), other strokes in five patients (24%). There were five deaths in patients with MCAS; age > 69 (P = 0.045) was the only associated risk factor. This study suggests that patients in whom MRA is performed and shows AMCAS may be at increased risk of strokes in any vascular distribution or of death.