Constructing transferable and interpretable machine learning models for black carbon concentrations.

Black carbon (BC) has received increasing attention from researchers due to its adverse health effects. However, in-situ BC measurements are often not included as a regulated variable in air quality monitoring networks. Machine learning (ML) models have been studied extensively to serve as virtual sensors to complement the reference instruments. This study evaluates and compares three white-box (WB) and four black-box (BB) ML models to estimate BC concentrations, with the focus to show their transferability and interpretability. We train the models with the long-term air pollutant and weather measurements in Barcelona urban background site, and test them in other European urban and traffic sites. Despite the difference in geographical locations and measurement sites, BC correlates the strongest with particle number concentration of accumulation mode (PNacc, r = 0.73-0.85) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2, r = 0.68-0.85) and the weakest with meteorological parameters. Due to its similarity of correlation behaviour, the ML models trained in Barcelona performs prominently at the traffic site in Helsinki (R2 = 0.80-0.86; mean absolute error MAE = 3.90-4.73 %) and at the urban background site in Dresden (R2 = 0.79-0.84; MAE = 4.23-4.82 %). WB models appear to explain less variability of BC than BB models, long short-term memory (LSTM) model of which outperforms the rest of the models. In terms of interpretability, we adopt several methods for individual model to quantify and normalize the relative importance of each input feature. The overall static relative importance commonly used for WB models demonstrate varying results from the dynamic values utilized to show local contribution used for BB models. PNacc and NO2 on average have the strongest absolute static contribution; however, they simultaneously impact the estimation positively and negatively at different sites. This comprehensive analysis demonstrates that the possibility of these interpretable air pollutant ML models to be transfered across space and time.

Improving the current air quality index with new particulate indicators using a robust statistical approach.

To convey the severity of ambient air pollution level to the public, air quality index (AQI) is used as a communication tool to reflect the concentrations of individual pollutants on a common scale. However, due to the enhanced air pollution control in recent years, air quality has improved, and the roles of some air pollutant species included in the existing AQI as urban air pollutants have diminished. In this study, we suggest the current AQI should be revised in a way that new air pollution indicators would be considered so that it would better represent the health effects caused by local combustion processes from traffic and residential burning. Based on the air quality data of 2017-2019 in three different sites in Helsinki metropolitan area, we assumed the statistical distributions of the current indicators (NO2 and PM2.5) and the proposed particulate indicators (BC, LDSA and PNC) were related as they have similar sources in urban regions despite the varying correlations between the current and proposed indicators (NO2: r = 0.5-0.85, PM2.5: r = 0.28-0.72). By fitting the data to an optimal distribution function, together with expert opinions, we improved the current Finnish AQI and determined the AQI breakpoints for the proposed indicators where this robust statistical approach is transferrable to other cities. The addition of the three proposed indicators to the current AQI would decrease the number of good air quality hours in all three environments (largest decrease in urban traffic site, ~22 %). The deterioration of air quality class appeared more severe during peak hours in the urban traffic site due to vehicular emission and evenings in the detached housing site where domestic wood combustion often takes place. The introduction of the AQI breakpoints of the three new indicators serve as a first step of improving the current AQI before further air quality guideline levels are updated.