Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Kunming based on PLUS and InVEST models.

Carbon storage is a critical ecosystem service provided by terrestrial environmental systems that can effectively reduce regional carbon emissions and is critical for achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peak. We conducted a study in Kunming and analyzed the land utilization data for 2000, 2010, and 2020. We assessed the features of land utilization conversion and forecasted land utilization under three development patterns in 2030 on the basis of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to estimate changes in carbon storage trends under three development scenarios in 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 and the impact of socioeconomic and natural factors on carbon storage. The results of the study indicated that (1) carbon storage is intimately associated with land utilization practices. Carbon storage in Kunming in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 1.146 × 108 t, 1.139 × 108 t, and 1.120 × 108 t, respectively. During the 20 years, forest land decreased by 142.28 km2, and the decrease in forest land area caused a loss of carbon storage. (2) Carbon storage in 2030 was predicted to be 1.102 × 108 t, 1.136 × 108 t, and 1.105 × 108 t, respectively, under the trend continuation scenario, eco-friendly scenario, and comprehensive development scenario, indicating that implementing ecological protection and cultivated land protection measures can facilitate regional ecosystem carbon storage restoration. (3) Impervious surfaces and vegetation have the greatest influence on carbon storage for the study area. A spatial global and local negative correlation was found between impervious surface coverage and ecosystem carbon storage. A spatial global and local positive correlation was found between NDVI and ecosystem carbon storage. Therefore, ecological and farmland protection policies need to be strengthened, the expansion of impervious surfaces should be strictly controlled, and vegetation coverage should be improved.

Constructing the Ecological Security Pattern of Nujiang Prefecture Based on the Framework of "Importance-Sensitivity-Connectivity".

Constructing an ecological security pattern is vital to guaranteeing regional ecological security. The terrain and geomorphology of the alpine valley are complex and sensitive, meaning it is difficult to construct ecological security patterns. Therefore, the study takes Nujiang Prefecture as the study area and builds an "Importance-Sensitivity-Connectivity" (Importance of ecosystem service, eco-environmental sensitivity, and landscape connectivity) framework to carry on the comprehensive evaluation of the ecological security and identification of ecological sources. Furthermore, we constructed an ecological resistance surface using land-use type. Using the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, the study identifies the ecological corridors and nodes to build ecological security patterns to optimize the ecological spatial structure of Nujiang Prefecture. The results showed that (1) the importance of ecosystem services was higher in the west and lower in the east. The high-sensitive areas of the ecological environment were distributed discontinuously along the banks of the Nujiang and the Lantsang River, and the areas with high landscape connectivity were distributed in patches in the Gaoligong Mountain Nature Reserve and the Biluo Snow Mountain. (2) The overall ecological security was in a good state, and the ecologically insecure areas were primarily distributed in Lanping County and the southeast region of Lushui City. (3) The primary ecological source area was identified to be 3281.35 km2 and the secondary ecological source area to be 4224.64 km2. (4) In total, 26 primary ecological corridors, 39 secondary ecological corridors, and 82 ecological nodes were identified.