Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.

BACKGROUND: There is still a relatively serious disease burden of infectious diseases and the warning time for different infectious diseases before implementation of interventions is important. The logistic differential equation models can be used for predicting early warning of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to compare the disease fitting effects of the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model for the first time using data on multiple infectious diseases in Jilin Province and to calculate the early warning signals for different types of infectious diseases using these two models in Jilin Province to solve the disease early warning schedule for Jilin Province throughout the year. METHODS: Collecting the incidence of 22 infectious diseases in Jilin Province, China. The LDE and GLDE models were used to calculate the recommended warning week (RWW), the epidemic acceleration week (EAW) and warning removed week (WRW) for acute infectious diseases with seasonality, respectively. RESULTS: Five diseases were selected for analysis based on screening principles: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), shigellosis, mumps, Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and scarlet fever. The GLDE model fitted the above diseases better (0.80 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.94, P <  0. 005) than the LDE model. The estimated warning durations (per year) of the LDE model for the above diseases were: weeks 12-23 and 40-50; weeks 20-36; weeks 15-24 and 43-52; weeks 26-34; and weeks 16-25 and 41-50. While the durations of early warning (per year) estimated by the GLDE model were: weeks 7-24 and 36-51; weeks 13-37; weeks 11-26 and 39-54; weeks 23-35; and weeks 12-26 and 40-50. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the LDE model, the GLDE model provides a better fit to the actual disease incidence data. The RWW appeared to be earlier when estimated with the GLDE model than the LDE model. In addition, the WRW estimated with the GLDE model were more lagged and had a longer warning time.

Estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C: A modelling study in Yichang City, China.

Yichang is a city in central China in the Hubei Province. This study aimed to estimate the dynamics of the transmissibility of hepatitis C using a mathematical model and predict the transmissibility of hepatitis C in 2030. Data of hepatitis C cases from 13 counties or districts (cities) in Yichang from 2008 to 2016 were collected. A susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was developed to fit the data. The transmissibility of hepatitis C at the counties or districts was calculated based on new infections (including infected or chronically infected cases) reported monthly in the city caused by one infectious individual (MNI). The trend of the MNI was fitted and predicted using 11 models, with the coefficient of determination (R2 ) was being used to test the goodness of fit of these models. A total of 3065 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Yichang from 2008 to 2016. The median MNI of Yichang was 0.0768. According to the fitting results and analysis, the trend of transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang City conforms with the logarithmic (R2  = 0.918, p < 0.001):MNI = 0.265-0.108 log(t) and exponential (R2  = 0.939, p < 0.001): MNI = 0.344e(-0.278t) models. Hence, the transmission of hepatitis C virus at the county level has a downward trend. In conclusion, the transmissibility of hepatitis C in Yichang has a downward trend. With the current preventive and control measures in place, the spread of hepatitis C can be controlled.

The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China.

This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated. The basic reproduction number (R0) and the number of newly transmitted cases by a primary case per month (MNI) were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eleven curve estimation models were employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.4059. R0 follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0020. MNI follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The transmissibility of HCV follows a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy for prevention and control, there would be a high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.

Reversible splenial lesion syndrome associated with encephalitis/encephalopathy presenting with great clinical heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Reversible splenial lesion syndrome (RESLES) is a disorder radiologically characterized by reversible lesion in the splenium of the corpus callosum (SCC). Most of patients with RESLES associated with encephalitis/encephalopathy were identified in Japanese population, but almost no Chinese patients were diagnosed as RESLES associated with encephalitis/encephalopathy. METHODS: Possible patients with reversible isolated SCC lesions were retrieved from January 2012 to July 2015 using keyword "restricted diffusion and isolated SCC lesion" in MRI report system from a large academic center. The clinical, laboratory and radiological data were summarized. RESULTS: A total of 15 encephalitis/encephalopathy patients (9 males and 6 females) were identified with a reversible isolated SCC lesion. Except for 13 patients with fever symptom, 8 patients also had cold symptoms before the onset of neurological symptoms. The neurological symptoms included headache, vertigo, seizure, disturbance of consciousness, and delirious behavior. Thirteen patients completely recovered within 1 month, but 2 patients who were subjected to mechanical ventilation had persistent neurological deficits. The initial MRI features showed isolated ovoid or extending SCC lesions with homogeneous hyperintense on diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and decreased apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. The follow-up MRI revealed that isolated SCC lesions with diffuse restriction disappeared at 10 to 32 days after the initial MRI study. Fractional anisotropy map revealed the decreased value of SCC lesion in a severe case with poor prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: RESLES associated with encephalitis/encephalopathy is a reversible syndrome with an excellent prognosis in most patients, while a few patients required ventilator supporting at the early stage might have severe neurological sequelae. Reversible signal changes on DWI and ADC are identified in all patients, but fractional anisotropy values can be decreased in severe patient with neurological sequelae.

Diffuse leptomeningeal gliomatosis initially presenting with intraventricular hemorrhage: a case report and literature review.

BACKGROUND: Primary diffuse leptomeningeal gliomatosis (PDLG) is a lethal neoplasm that is characterized by glioma cells exclusively infiltrating into cerebral and spinal meninges. Intraventricular hemorrhage as an initial symptom in PDLG patient has not been reported in the literatures. CASE PRESENTATION: A 39-year-old man initially presented with intraventricular hemorrhage. The patient had an improved outcome at the early stage of hemorrhagic course; however, the clinical condition began to a sudden turn for deterioration with intracranial hypertension and cerebral hernia on day 15 after admission. Cerebral CT and MRI showed diffuse patchy signals with enhancement in bilateral cerebellopontine angle cistern, suprasellar cistern, ambient cistern, quadrigeminal cistern, bilateral cerebellum, cerebral hemisphere, and upper cervical cord surface. Pathological examination revealed that numerous spindled cells were scant of cytoplasm with hyperchromatic nuclei and various mitotic figures. Immunohistochemistry showed that the cells were positive to glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) with about 5% Ki-67 positive labeling. The pathological findings were consistent with the diagnostic criteria of anaplastic astrocytoma (WHO grade III). CONCLUSION: We reported an interesting case that PDLG initially presented with intraventricular hemorrhage that might be caused by astrocytoma rupturing into pial vessels.

Bent spine syndrome as an initial manifestation of late-onset multiple acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency: a case report and literature review.

BACKGROUND: Late-onset multiple acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (MADD) is an autosomal recessive inherited disease of metabolic dysfunction clinically characterized by fluctuating proximal muscle weakness, excise intolerance, and dramatic riboflavin responsiveness. Dropped head syndrome can occasionally be observed in some severe patients with late-onset MADD; however, bent spine syndrome as an initial symptom had not been reported in patients with late-onset MADD. CASE PRESENTATION: A 46-year-old man lost the ability to hold his trunk upright, and had difficulty in raising his head, but he had no obvious symptoms of limb weakness. Meanwhile, he developed persistent numbness of limbs and lips around. Myopathological features and combined elevation of multiple acylcarnitines indicated that the axial myopathy might be caused by lipid storage myopathy. Cervical and lumbosacral MRI revealed a lot of abnormal signals diffusing along paravertebral muscles, while the abnormal signals almost disappeared after riboflavin treatment. Nerve conduction study indicated the patient suffering from predominantly sensory neuropathy and mildly motor neuropathy. Muscle pathology also demonstrated no typical neurogenic change, which was consistent with the electrophysiological findings. Causative mutations were found in the ETFDH gene. CONCLUSION: We report the first case of late-onset MADD with sensory neuropathy initially manifesting as bent spine syndrome and dropped head syndrome.

Hypokalemic Periodic Paralysis Type 2 Due to SCN4A Val1105Met Mutation: A Case Study.

Hypokalemic Periodic Paralysis Type 2 (HOKPP2) is a rare autosomal dominant disorder characterized by recurrent episodes of muscle weakness, paralysis, and hypokalemia. In this case report, we present the clinical details of a 49-year-old female diagnosed with HOKPP2. Genetic testing revealed a heterozygous mutation in the Sodium Voltage-Gated Channel Alpha Subunit 4 (SCN4A) gene, confirming the diagnosis of HOKPP2. Management strategies, including potassium supplementation and lifestyle modifications, were implemented, resulting in a significant decrease in the frequency of symptomatic episodes. This case highlights the importance of considering HOKPP2 in patients with recurrent muscle weakness, particularly those with a familial history of similar symptoms. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of genetic testing in guiding patient management and facilitating genetic counseling.

Parametric analysis of the transmission dynamics during indigenous aggregated outbreaks caused by five SARS-CoV-2 strains in Nanjing, China.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 strains have been of great concern due to their high infectivity and antibody evasion. Methods: In this study, data were collected on indigenous aggregated outbreaks in Nanjing from January 2020 to December 2022, caused by five strains including the original strain, the Delta variant, and the Omicron variant (BA.2, BA.5.2, and BF.7). The basic epidemiological characteristics of infected individuals were described and then parametric analysis of transmission dynamics was performed, including the calculation of incubation period, serial interval (SI), the basic reproductive number (R0), and the household secondary attack rate (HSAR). Finally, we compared the trends of transmission dynamic parameters of different strains. Results: The incubation period for the original strain, the Delta variant, Omicron BA.2, Omicron BA.5.2, and Omicron BF.7 were 6 d (95% CI: 3.5-7.5 d), 5 d (95% CI: 4.0-6.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0-4.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0-3.0 d), and 2 d (95% CI: 2.0-3.0 d), respectively; Also, the SI of the five strains were 5.69 d, 4.79 d, 2.7 d, 2.12 d, and 2.43 d, respectively. Notably, the incubation period and SI of the five had both a progressive shortening trend (p < 0.001); Moreover, R0 of the five were 2.39 (95% CI: 1.30-4.29), 3.73 (95% CI: 2.66-5.15), 5.28 (95% CI: 3.52-8.10), 5.54 (95% CI: 2.69-11.17), 7.39 (95% CI: 2.97-18.76), with an increasing trend gradually (p < 0.01); HSAR of the five were 25.5% (95% CI: 20.1-31.7%), 27.4% (95% CI: 22.0-33.4%), 42.9% (95% CI: 34.3-51.8%), 53.1% (95% CI: 45.0-60.9%), 41.4% (95% CI, 25.5-59.3%), also with an increasing trend (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Compared to the original strain, the incubation period and SI decreased while R0 and HSAR increased, suggesting that transmission in the population was faster and the scope of the population was wider. Overall, it's crucial to keep implementing comprehensive measures like monitoring and alert systems, herd immunization plans, and outbreak control.

Blister Pack Ingestion in an Elderly Patient With a Communication Barrier: A Case Report.

Foreign body ingestion is a common problem among elderly patients and can pose a serious health risk, particularly for those with communication barriers, cognitive impairments, or obscure medical histories. This report presents the case of a 67-year-old female inpatient who had a language communication barrier and accidentally ingested a blister pack. Effective communication was facilitated through an interpreter, and prompt endoscopic intervention was conducted to remove the foreign body safely. The patient was discharged with no further symptoms during follow-up. This case highlights the importance of prompt evaluation and intervention for foreign body ingestion in elderly patients, particularly those with communication barriers.

Evaluation of the transmissibility of norovirus and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures for schools in Jiangsu Province.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to estimate the transmissibility of norovirus outbreaks in schools by different transmission routes, and to evaluate the effects of isolation, school-closure and disinfection measures under different intervention intensities, finally, scientific prevention and control suggestions are proposed. METHOD: 23 outbreaks of norovirus infectious diarrhea occurring in Jiangsu Province's school from 2012-2018 were selected and fitted to the model. The data includes various types of school places and pathogen genotype. A 'SEIAQRW' model with two transmission routes was established. The transmissibility of each outbreak was assessed using effective reproduction number, the efficacy of different intervention measures and intensities were evaluated by calculating the total attack rate and peak incidence. RESULTS: The mean effective reproduction number of noroviruses was estimated to be 8.92 for the human-to-human route of transmission and 2.19 for the water or food-to-human route of transmission. When all symptomatic cases were isolated, the median peak incidence for both transmission routes both being less than 1.8%. There was a smaller reduction in total attack rate compared to peak incidence, the median total attack rate for the two transmission routes decreased by 17.59% and 42.09%, respectively. When the effect of school-closure or disinfection is more than 90%, the total attack rate and peak incidence in the human-to-human route are reduced by more than 90% compared to no intervention, and the peak incidence in the water or food-to-human routes can be reduced to less than 1.4%, but the reduction in the total attack rate is only 50% or so. CONCLUSION: Norovirus outbreaks have a high rate of transmission in schools. In the case of norovirus outbreaks, isolation should be complemented by other interventions, and the implementation of high-intensity school closures or disinfection of the external environment can be effective in reducing the spread of the virus.

Management and Anticoagulation Treatment of Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation in Elderly Patients: The Dali Study.

Background: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is associated with increased stroke in elderly populations, yet anticoagulant therapy is underutilized. We analyzed clinical characteristics and anticoagulation treatment rates of elderly NVAF patients hospitalized in Dali, China, to identify potential contributing factors. Methods: We collected data for 155 elderly patients with NVAF aged ≥60 years, from July 01, 2020, to December 31, 2021. We analyzed the awareness rate, clinical characteristics, and anticoagulant treatment rate of atrial fibrillation (AF), and identified factors influencing treatment. Patients were followed up one year after discharge to assess vital status, cardiovascular events, and anticoagulation therapy status. Results: Among 155 patients, 52.26% were female, and the average age was 75.77 years. The awareness rate of AF was 47.74% at admission, and only 21.94% received anticoagulant therapy. After discharge, the rate of anticoagulant therapy significantly increased to 70.97%, and 89.09% used new oral anticoagulants. Thromboembolic history and persistent AF predicted anticoagulant therapy at discharge, while male gender, previous bleeding history, and antiplatelet therapy predicted non-anticoagulant therapy. Out of 133 patients who completed a one-year follow-up, 23.31% died, 3.01% had strokes, and 3.01% experienced bleeding. Anticoagulant therapy decreased to 51.96% during the follow-up year. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the low awareness rate and anticoagulant treatment rate, and high mortality among elderly NVAF patients in Dali. The development of comprehensive intervention strategies is critical to standardize AF management and improve prognosis.

Morphology-Controlled Synthesis of Polyphosphazene-Based Micro- and Nano-Materials and Their Application as Flame Retardants.

Common flame retardants, such as halogen-based materials, are being phased-out owing to their harmful environmental and health effects. We prepared poly-(cyclotriphosphazene-co-4,4'-sulfonyldiphenol) (PZS) microspheres, nanotubes, capsicum-like nanotubes, and branched nanotubes as flame retardants. An increase in reaction temperature changed the morphology from nanotubes to microspheres. A PZS shape had a positive effect on the flame retardancy of polyethylene terephthalate (PET). The PZS with a capsicum-like nanotube morphology had the best flame retardancy, and the PET limiting oxygen index increased from 25.2% to 34.4%. The flame retardancy capability was followed by PZS microspheres (33.1%), branched nanotubes (32.8%), and nanotubes (32.5%). The capsicum-like nanotubes promote the formation of highly dense and continuous carbon layers, and they release a non-combustible gas (CO2). This study confirms polyphosphazene-based flame retardants as viable and environmentally-friendly alternatives to common flame retardants. It also presents a novel and facile design and synthesis of morphology-controlled nanomaterials with enhanced flame retardant properties.

Assessing the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Pandemic Using Generalized Estimating Equations.

Background: Meteorological factors have been proven to affect pathogens; both the transmission routes and other intermediate. Many studies have worked on assessing how those meteorological factors would influence the transmissibility of COVID-19. In this study, we used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by using three outcome variables, which are transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases. Methods: In this study, the data on the daily number of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 in 30 provinces and cities nationwide were obtained from the provincial and municipal health committees, while the data from 682 conventional weather stations in the selected provinces and cities were obtained from the website of the China Meteorological Administration. We built a Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model to fit the data, then we calculated the transmissibility of COVID-19 using an indicator of the effective reproduction number (Reff ). To quantify the different impacts of meteorological factors on several outcome variables including transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases of COVID-19, we collected panel data and used generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether there is a lag effect and the different times of meteorological factors on the three outcome variables. Results: Precipitation and wind speed had a negative effect on transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases, while humidity had a positive effect on them. The higher the temperature, the lower the transmissibility. The temperature had a lag effect on the incidence rate, while the remaining five meteorological factors had immediate and lag effects on the incidence rate and the number of reported cases. Conclusion: Meteorological factors had similar effects on incidence rate and number of reported cases, but different effects on transmissibility. Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, sunshine hours, and wind speed had immediate and lag effects on transmissibility, but with different lag times. An increase in temperature may first cause a decrease in virus transmissibility and then lead to a decrease in incidence rate. Also, the mechanism of the role of meteorological factors in the process of transmissibility to incidence rate needs to be further explored.

The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we aimed to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and determine its transmissibility. METHODS: Based on the natural history and transmission features of MERS in different countries, a susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/death (SEIARD) model and a multi-route dynamic model (MMDM). The SEIARD model and MMDM were adopted to simulate MERS in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Data on reported MERS cases in the two countries were obtained from the World Health Organization. Thereafter, the next generation matrix method was employed to derive the equation for the basic reproduction number (R0), and the model fitting procedure was adopted to calculate the R0 values corresponding to these different countries. RESULTS: In South Korea, 'Person-to-Person' transmission was identified as the main mode of MERS transmission in healthcare settings, while in Saudi Arabia, in addition to 'Person-to-Person' transmission, 'Host-to-Host' and 'Host-to-Person' transmission also occurred under certain scenarios, with camels being the main host. Further, the fitting results showed that the SEIARD model and MMDM fitted the data well. The mean R0 value was 8.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0-28.02) for MERS in South Korea, and for MERS in Saudi Arabia, it was 1.15 and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.86-1.44) for the 'Person-to-Person' and 'Camel-to-Camel' transmission routes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The SEIARD and MMDM model can be used to simulate the transmission of MERS in different countries. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, the transmissibility of MERS was almost the same among hosts (camels) and humans.

An Easy-to-Use Public Health-Driven Method (the Generalized Logistic Differential Equation Model) Accurately Simulated COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan and Correctly Determined the Early Warning Time.

Introduction: Modeling on infectious diseases is significant to facilitate public health policymaking. There are two main mathematical methods that can be used for the simulation of the epidemic and prediction of optimal early warning timing: the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the more complex generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model. This study aimed to compare and analyze these two models. Methods: We collected data on (coronavirus disease 2019) COVID-19 and four other infectious diseases and classified the data into four categories: different transmission routes, different epidemic intensities, different time scales, and different regions, using R2 to compare and analyze the goodness-of-fit of LDE and GLDE models. Results: Both models fitted the epidemic curves well, and all results were statistically significant. The R2 test value of COVID-19 was 0.924 (p < 0.001) fitted by the GLDE model and 0.916 (p < 0.001) fitted by the LDE model. The R2 test value varied between 0.793 and 0.966 fitted by the GLDE model and varied between 0.594 and 0.922 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different transmission routes. The R2 test values varied between 0.853 and 0.939 fitted by the GLDE model and varied from 0.687 to 0.769 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different prevalence intensities. The R2 test value varied between 0.706 and 0.917 fitted by the GLDE model and varied between 0.410 and 0.898 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different time scales. The GLDE model also performed better with nation-level data with the R2 test values between 0.897 and 0.970 vs. 0.731 and 0.953 that fitted by the LDE model. Both models could characterize the patterns of the epidemics well and calculate the acceleration weeks. Conclusion: The GLDE model provides more accurate goodness-of-fit to the data than the LDE model. The GLDE model is able to handle asymmetric data by introducing shape parameters that allow it to fit data with various distributions. The LDE model provides an earlier epidemic acceleration week than the GLDE model. We conclude that the GLDE model is more advantageous in asymmetric infectious disease data simulation.

Epidemiological Characteristics and the Dynamic Transmission Model of Dengue Fever in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province in 2018.

Background: With the progress of urbanization, the mobility of people has gradually increased, which has led to the further spread of dengue fever. This study evaluated the transmissibility of dengue fever within districts and between different districts in Zhanjiang City to provide corresponding advice for cross-regional prevention and control. Methods: A mathematical model of transmission dynamics was developed to explore the transmissibility of the disease and to compare that between different regions. Results: A total of 467 DF cases (6.38 per 100,000 people) were reported in Zhanjiang City in 2018. In the model, without any intervention, the number of simulated cases in this epidemic reached about 950. The dengue fever transmissions between districts varied within and between regions. When the spread of dengue fever from Chikan Districts to other districts was cut off, the number of cases in other districts dropped significantly or even to zero. When the density of mosquitoes in Xiashan District was controlled, the dengue fever epidemic in Xiashan District was found to be significantly alleviated. Conclusions: When there is a dengue outbreak, timely measures can effectively control it from developing into an epidemic. Different prevention and control measures in different districts could efficiently reduce the risk of disease transmission.

Meteorological factors and tick density affect the dynamics of SFTS in jiangsu province, China.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore whether the transmission routes of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) will be affected by tick density and meteorological factors, and to explore the factors that affect the transmission of SFTS. We used the transmission dynamics model to calculate the transmission rate coefficients of different transmission routes of SFTS, and used the generalized additive model to uncover how meteorological factors and tick density affect the spread of SFTS. METHODS: In this study, the time-varying infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes of SFTS in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2020 were calculated based on the previous multi-population multi-route dynamic model (MMDM) of SFTS. The changes in transmission routes were summarized by collecting questionnaires from 537 SFTS cases in 2018-2020 in Jiangsu Province. The incidence rate of SFTS and the infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes were dependent variables, and month, meteorological factors and tick density were independent variables to establish a generalized additive model (GAM). The optimal GAM was selected using the generalized cross-validation score (GCV), and the model was validated by the 2016 data of Zhejiang Province and 2020 data of Jiangsu Province. The validated GAMs were used to predict the incidence and infection rate coefficients of SFTS in Jiangsu province in 2021, and also to predict the effect of extreme weather on SFTS. RESULTS: The number and proportion of infections by different transmission routes for each year and found that tick-to-human and human-to-human infections decreased yearly, but infections through animal and environmental transmission were gradually increasing. MMDM fitted well with the three-year SFTS incidence data (P<0.05). The best intervention to reduce the incidence of SFTS is to reduce the effective exposure of the population to the surroundings. Based on correlation tests, tick density was positively correlated with air temperature, wind speed, and sunshine duration. The best GAM was a model with tick transmissibility to humans as the dependent variable, without considering lagged effects (GCV = 5.9247E-22, R2 = 96%). Reported incidence increased when sunshine duration was higher than 11 h per day and decreased when temperatures were too high (>28°C). Sunshine duration and temperature had the greatest effect on transmission from host animals to humans. The effect of extreme weather conditions on SFTS was short-term, but there was no effect on SFTS after high temperature and sunshine hours. CONCLUSIONS: Different factors affect the infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes. Sunshine duration, relative humidity, temperature and tick density are important factors affecting the occurrence of SFTS. Hurricanes reduce the incidence of SFTS in the short term, but have little effect in the long term. The most effective intervention to reduce the incidence of SFTS is to reduce population exposure to high-risk environments.

Astaxanthin supplementation enriches productive performance, physiological and immunological responses in laying hens.

OBJECTIVE: Astaxanthin is a natural super antioxidant. The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of astaxanthin rich Phaffia rhodozyma (PR) supplementation in diets on laying production performance, egg quality, antioxidant defenses and immune defenses in laying hens. METHODS: A total of five hundred and twelve 60-week-old Lohmann Brown laying hens (2,243±12 g) were randomly assigned to four groups, each including 4 replicates with 32 birds per replicate. Astaxanthin rich PR was added to corn-soybean meal diets to produce experimental diets containing 0 (Control), 800 mg/kg, 1,200 mg/kg, and 1,600 mg/kg PR, respectively. The astaxanthin content in the diet was 0.96 mg/kg, 1.44 mg/kg and 1.92 mg/kg respectively. RESULTS: Results showed that dietary PR supplementation tended to increase daily feed intake (p = 0.0512). There was no effect of astaxanthin rich PR on Haugh units, albumen height, egg shape index, eggshell strength, and eggshell thickness at weeks 6 (p>0.05). However, egg yolk color was significantly improved (p<0.05). In addition, astaxanthin rich PR supplementation significantly increased serum glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase activity (p<0.05), increased serum immunoglobulin G content (p<0.05), and reduced malondialdehyde content (p<0.05) in laying hens. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, astaxanthin rich PR can improve the color of egg yolk, enhance the antioxidant defenses, and regulate the immune function.

Live poultry feeding and trading network and the transmission of avian influenza A(H5N6) virus in a large city in China, 2014-2015.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the transmission mechanisms of the avian influenza A(H5N6) virus. METHODS: This study explored the live poultry feeding and trading network (LPFTN) around Changsha city, China. Field epidemiological investigations were performed in Changsha to investigate the LPFTN with the environmental samples systematically collected during 2014-2015 to monitor and analyze the spread of the A(H5N6) virus. Two surveillance systems were also applied to find possible human cases of A(H5N6) infection. RESULT: The information of all the 665 live poultry farming sites, five wholesale markets, and 223 retail markets in Changsha was collected to investigate the LPFTN. Moreover, about 840 environmental samples were systematically collected from the LPFTN during 2014-2015 to monitor the spread of the A(H5N6) virus, with 8.45% (71/840) positive for the N6 subtype. Furthermore, the full genome sequences of 10 A(H5N6) viruses detected from the environmental samples were obtained, which were then characterized and phylogenetically analyzed with the corresponding gene segments of the A(H5N6) virus obtained from GenBank, to determine the source of human infection. CONCLUSION: It was demonstrated that the LPFTN provided a platform for the H5N6 transmission, and formed an infectious pool for the spread of the virus to humans.

The epidemiological characteristics and effectiveness of countermeasures to contain coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China.

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore the key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. The information of each confirmed case and asymptomatic infection was collected from Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China. A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increasing trend. The proportion of elder people in the asymptomatic infections was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistically significant (Fisher's Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic infections, accounting for 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate (SAR) of asymptomatic infections was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no statistical significance was observed (χ2 = 0.052, P = 0.819) by Kruskal-Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was 1.43, which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions had not been strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would have lasted about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate (TAR) and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention. SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. The proportion of asymptomatic infections had an increase trend. Asymptomatic infections had the same transmissibility as symptomatic infections. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which turned out to be exceedingly effective in China.