A time series analysis of detection and mortality of hepatitis C in Brazil, 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030. In Brazil, efforts have been undertaken to achieve this goal; there are, however, great challenges. It is important to understand the disease profile in different regions of the country in order to design strategies to fight the disease nationwide. The objective of this study was to analyse the time trend of the incidence and mortality of hepatitis C in Brazil during the period from 2008 to 2018 according to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. METHODS: All newly diagnosed cases of hepatitis C reported between 2008 and 2018, in all regions of Brazil, were included. The indicators were obtained from the databases of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. For the time series analysis, a joinpoint regression model was used. RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2018, 136,759 newly diagnosed cases of hepatitis C were reported considering anti-HCV and HCV RNA positivity, and 271,624 newly diagnosed cases were reported considering one or another positive test. The majority of the records were concentrated in the Southeast (61%) and South (26.2%) Regions. The joinpoint regression model indicated an increasing trend in the detection rate of hepatitis C in Brazil, but there was a decreasing trend in the mortality rate during the period analysed. CONCLUSIONS: Differences were observed in the time trend of hepatitis C and in the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics in different regions of Brazil. These data can provide support to design strategies for the elimination of hepatitis C in Brazil, according to regional particularities.

Impact Of The COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospital Admissions and In-Hospital Lethality From Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil: An Ecological and Time Series Study.

Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Brazil, several government policies have been taken. Herein, we aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital admissions and in-hospital lethality for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brazil in 2020. An ecological and time-series study on hospitalizations and deaths from CVD in Brazil was conducted from January 2018 to December 2020.The hospital admission rate for CVD reduced by 17.1%, with a significant decreasing trend between January and May 2020 (Annual Percent Change: -8,7%; P-value < 0.001). The in-hospital lethality rate increased from 8.2% in 2018 to 9.3% in 2020. During this period, Brazil totaled 21.8 million days of hospital stay. Indicators of hospital admissions and lethality from CVD in Brazil were impacted by the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in different ways in the regions and depending on the nature of the indicator.

Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability. RESULTS: Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability.