Validation and update of a prediction model for risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF treatment in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is effective for the treatment of Crohn's disease. Cessation may be considered in patients with a low risk of relapse. We aimed to externally validate and update our previously developed prediction model to estimate the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF therapy. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 17 Dutch hospitals. Crohn's disease patients in clinical, biochemical or endoscopic remission were included after anti-TNF cessation. Primary outcome was a relapse necessitating treatment. Discrimination and calibration of the previously developed model were assessed. After external validation, the model was updated. The performance of the updated prediction model was assessed in internal-external validation and by using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: 486 patients were included with a median follow-up of 1.7 years. Relapse rates were 35 and 54% after 1 and 2 years. At external validation, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was equal to that found at the development of the model [c-statistic 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.62)], though the model was not well-calibrated on our cohort [calibration slope: 0.52 (0.28-0.76)]. After an update, a c-statistic of 0.60 (0.58-0.63) and calibration slope of 0.89 (0.69-1.09) were reported in internal-external validation. CONCLUSION: Our previously developed and updated prediction model for the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF in Crohn's disease shows reasonable performance. The use of the model may support clinical decision-making to optimize patient selection in whom anti-TNF can be withdrawn. Clinical validation is ongoing in a prospective randomized trial.

Validation and Investigation of the Operating Characteristics of the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity.

BACKGROUND: The Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) is a novel instrument to evaluate endoscopic disease activity. It has been demonstrated to outperform the more widely used Mayo endoscopic score (MES) in predicting long-term prognosis, including the need for colectomy. Despite its potential benefits, many clinicians still prefer to use MES because its operating characteristics are better defined and its grades are more readily applicable to clinical decision-making. The aims of our study were to quantify the UCEIS cutoff most closely associated with the need for treatment escalation and to perform a validation exercise using MES and clinical, biochemical, and histological measures of disease activity. METHODS: Endoscopies performed in UC patients between November 2016 and January 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Agreement between the UCEIS and MES was quantified using Kappa (κ) statistics. A UCEIS cutoff for treatment escalation was calculated using chi-square, receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the curve (AUC) analyses. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to compare linear relationships between UCEIS and clinical (Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index [SCCAI]), biochemical (C-reactive protein [CRP]), and histological (Nancy Histological Index [NHI]) activity. RESULTS: Two hundred one (56%) procedures documented both UCEIS and MES, demonstrating substantial agreement (κ = 0.713; P < 0.001). Treatment was escalated after 199 (56%) procedures. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of need for treatment escalation showed the highest sensitivity and specificity for UCEIS ≥4 (0.80 and 0.93, respectively; AUC, 0.93). Of 170 patients with a UCEIS ≥4, treatment was escalated in 159 (94%), but not for 11 (6%). Of 185 patients with a UCEIS ≤3, 40 (22%) were escalated, whereas 145 (78%) were not (P < 0.001). UCEIS correlated strongly with NHI (0.723; P < 0.001), moderately with SCCAI (0.671; P < 0.001), and weakly with CRP (0.279; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A UCEIS ≥4 was significantly associated with treatment escalation. This cutoff could therefore be used to support clinical decision-making based on endoscopic findings. Strong and moderate correlations were found between UCEIS and histological and clinical disease activity, respectively, whereas a weak correlation was found with CRP.10.1093/ibd/izy325_Video_1 izy325.video1 5849933952001.