Frequency-dependent tolerance to aircraft disturbance drastically alters predicted impact on shorebirds.

Anthropogenic disturbance of wildlife is increasing globally. Generalizing impacts of disturbance to novel situations is challenging, as the tolerance of animals to human activities varies with disturbance frequency (e.g. due to habituation). Few studies have quantified frequency-dependent tolerance, let alone determined how it affects predictions of disturbance impacts when these are extrapolated over large areas. In a comparative study across a gradient of air traffic intensities, we show that birds nearly always fled (80%) if aircraft were rare, while birds rarely responded (7%) if traffic was frequent. When extrapolating site-specific responses to an entire region, accounting for frequency-dependent tolerance dramatically alters the predicted costs of disturbance: the disturbance map homogenizes with fewer hotspots. Quantifying frequency-dependent tolerance has proven challenging, but we propose that (i) ignoring it causes extrapolations of disturbance impacts from single sites to be unreliable, and (ii) it can reconcile published idiosyncratic species- or source-specific disturbance responses.

Global introductions and environmental impacts of freshwater megafish.

Freshwater megafish species, such as sturgeons, salmonids, carps, and catfishes, have a maximum reported weight ≥30 kg. Due to their charisma and economic value, they have been widely introduced outside of their native ranges. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the introduction of freshwater megafish and an assessment of their environmental impacts. Of the 134 extant freshwater megafish species, 46% have been introduced to new environments, and of these, 69% have established self-sustaining alien populations. These introductions affect 59% of the world's main basins, with the USA and western Europe being particular hotspots of megafish introductions. The common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is the most widely introduced species. Using the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT and EICAT+) frameworks, we assessed the severity and type of negative and positive impacts posed by alien megafish on native species. Alien megafish caused negative impacts through nine different mechanisms, with predation being the most frequently reported mechanism, followed by herbivory and competition. Moreover, 58% of the alien megafish species with sufficient data to evaluate the severity of their impacts caused declining populations of native species, or worse, extirpations of native species populations. The positive environmental impacts of alien megafish were far less frequently documented. They include biotic interactions that benefit native species, and the provision of trophic resources or habitats. Widely introduced or extensively studied species are more likely to have documented severe impacts on native species. There is a clear trade-off between the economic benefits associated with megafish introductions and the severe adverse impacts they have on native biodiversity. Our study highlights the need for comprehensive risk assessments to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of megafish. More research and long-term monitoring schemes are required to inform management actions to protect biodiversity, particularly in the Global South.

Precipitation and temperature timings underlying bioclimatic variables rearrange under climate change globally.

Modeling how climate change may affect the potential distribution of species and communities typically utilizes bioclimatic variables. Distribution predictions rely on the values of the bioclimatic variable (e.g., precipitation of the wettest quarter). However, the ecological meaning of most of these variables depends strongly on the within-year position of a specific climate period (SCP), for example, the wettest quarter of the year, which is often overlooked. Our aim was to determine how the within-year position of the SCPs would shift (SCP shift) in reaction to climate change in a global context. We calculated the deviations of the future within-year position of the SCPs relative to the reference period. We used four future time periods, four scenarios, and four CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to provide an ensemble of expectations regarding SCP shifts and locate the spatial hotspots of the shifts. Also, the size and frequency of the SCP shifts were subjected to linear models to evaluate the importance of the impact modeler's decision on time period, scenario, and GCM. We found ample examples of SCP shifts exceeding 2 months, with 6-month shifts being predicted as well. Many areas in the tropics are expected to experience both temperature and precipitation-related shifts, but precipitation-related shifts are abundantly predicted for the temperate and arctic zones as well. The combined shifts at the Equator reinforce the likelihood of the emergence of no-analogue climates there. The shifts become more pronounced as time and scenario progress, while GCMs could not be ranked in a clear order in this respect. For most SCPs, the modeler's decision on the GCM was the least important, while the choice of time period was typically more important than the choice of scenario. Future predictive distribution models should account for SCP shifts and incorporate the phenomenon in the modeling efforts.

Impact of the pandemic on surgical oncology in Piedmont, Italy: A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: This retrospective observational study analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic affected surgical oncology healthcare in a large sample from Piedmont, Northern Italy. Patients admitted for regular hospitalization were included (n = 99 651). Data from 2020 were compared to the averages from 2016 to 2019, stratified by tumor site, year, month, and admission method, using interrupted time series analysis post-March 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, oncological surgeries decreased by 12.3% (n = 17 923) compared to the 2016-2019 average (n = 20 432), notably dropping post-March (incidence rate ratio = 0.858; p < 0.001). The greatest reduction was observed for breast (-19.2%), colon (-18.2%), bladder (-17.5%), kidney (-14.2%), and prostate (-14%) surgeries. There was a huge reduction in nonemergency admissions (-13.6%), especially for colon (-23.8%), breast (-19.4%), and bladder (-18.7%). The proportion of hospitalizations with emergency access increased (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant decrease in cancer surgeries in Piedmont in 2020, with an increase in the proportion of admissions through emergency access. DISCUSSION: The research provides valuable insights for comparing data with other regions and evaluating the effectiveness of efforts to recover lost surgical procedures. These findings can be useful to policymakers in developing coordinated measures and more efficient access strategies to healthcare services in any future emergency situations.

The potential impact fraction of population weight reduction scenarios on non-communicable diseases in Belgium: application of the g-computation approach.

BACKGROUND: Overweight is a major risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Europe, affecting almost 60% of all adults. Tackling obesity is therefore a key long-term health challenge and is vital to reduce premature mortality from NCDs. Methodological challenges remain however, to provide actionable evidence on the potential health benefits of population weight reduction interventions. This study aims to use a g-computation approach to assess the impact of hypothetical weight reduction scenarios on NCDs in Belgium in a multi-exposure context. METHODS: Belgian health interview survey data (2008/2013/2018, n = 27 536) were linked to environmental data at the residential address. A g-computation approach was used to evaluate the potential impact fraction (PIF) of population weight reduction scenarios on four NCDs: diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and musculoskeletal (MSK) disease. Four scenarios were considered: 1) a distribution shift where, for each individual with overweight, a counterfactual weight was drawn from the distribution of individuals with a "normal" BMI 2) a one-unit reduction of the BMI of individuals with overweight, 3) a modification of the BMI of individuals with overweight based on a weight loss of 10%, 4) a reduction of the waist circumference (WC) to half of the height among all people with a WC:height ratio greater than 0.5. Regression models were adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. RESULTS: The first scenario resulted in preventing a proportion of cases ranging from 32.3% for diabetes to 6% for MSK diseases. The second scenario prevented a proportion of cases ranging from 4.5% for diabetes to 0.8% for MSK diseases. The third scenario prevented a proportion of cases, ranging from 13.6% for diabetes to 2.4% for MSK diseases and the fourth scenario prevented a proportion of cases ranging from 36.4% for diabetes to 7.1% for MSK diseases. CONCLUSION: Implementing weight reduction scenarios among individuals with excess weight could lead to a substantial and statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases in Belgium. The g-computation approach to assess PIF of interventions represents a straightforward approach for drawing causal inferences from observational data while providing useful information for policy makers.

Heavy alcohol use and the HIV care continuum in Kenya: a population-based study.

Heavy alcohol use (HAU) can destabilize engagement along the HIV care continuum. Population-based studies assessing associations of HAU with HIV treatment outcomes are lacking, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We leveraged data from the Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment to identify associations of self-reported HAU, assessed using two items measuring the frequency and quantity of past-year alcohol consumption, with serum biomarkers for HIV serostatus unawareness, antiretroviral therapy (ART) non-use, and HIV viremia (≥1000 RNA copies/mL). Overall and sex-stratified survey-weighted logistic regression with jackknife variance estimation modeled adjusted odds ratios (adjOR) of HIV treatment indicators by HAU. Overall, 1491 persons living with HIV aged 15-64 years (68.4% female) were included. The prevalence of HAU was 8.9% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 6.8-11.0%) and was significantly more pronounced in males than females (19.6% vs. 4.0%, p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, HAU was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with HIV serostatus unawareness (adjOR = 3.65, 95%CI: 2.14-6.23), ART non-use (adjOR = 3.81, 95%CI: 2.25-6.43), and HIV viremia (adjOR = 3.13, 95%CI: 1.85-5.32). Incorporating sex-specific alcohol use screening into HIV testing and treatment services in populations where HAU is prevalent could optimize clinical outcomes along the HIV care continuum.

Threats to conservation from national security interests.

There is a growing trend of nation states invoking national security and emergency declarations to build state-sponsored infrastructure projects for border defense, energy production, and transportation. Established laws, regulations, and agreements for the protection of nature and cultural heritage within and between countries are becoming secondary to national security, compromising the function of protected areas, such as national parks, wilderness areas, and biosphere reserves that safeguard biodiversity, climate, and human health. We considered cases where decades-long multinational cross-border endangered species recovery programs have been jeopardized by waivers of environmental protection laws to facilitate rapid construction of border barriers that impede the movement and migration of animals, such as at the US-Mexico and Poland-Belarus borders. Renewable energy megaprojects, such as the Pinacate solar plant in Mexico, coupled with power transmission lines and road networks likewise cast a large footprint on the land and are being carried out with minimal to no environmental compliance under the guise of national security. National sovereignty likewise has been used as justification for bypassing laws to proceed with similar projects, such as Mexico's Dos Bocas refinery and Poland's Vistula Spit canal. Emphasis on security is also apparent in increasing military expenditure by the world's largest economies, which has created a mismatch with improvement in environmental policy stringency. Decisions to prioritize security can undermine democratic principles and environmental review protocols, trivialize humanity's dependence on functioning ecosystems, and contradict the United Nation's resolution on the human right to a healthy environment. Framing infrastructure projects as matters of national security also foments civil and political unrest by the labeling and casting of dissenters, including conservation scientists and environmental defenders, as antinational. World leaders must refrain from misusing extraordinary powers, adhere to laws and international agreements, and consult experts and local people before taking unilateral action on projects that affect ecological and human communities.

Amenazas para la conservación a partir de los intereses nacionales de seguridad Resumen En los países existe una tendencia creciente por invocar la seguridad nacional y las declaraciones de emergencia para construir infraestructuras financiadas por el estado para la defensa de las fronteras, producción de energía y transporte. Las leyes, regulaciones y acuerdos establecidos para la protección de la naturaleza y el patrimonio cultural dentro y entre los países se están relegando por la seguridad nacional, lo que compromete la función de las áreas protegidas (parques nacionales, áreas silvestres y reservas de la biósfera) que resguardan la biodiversidad, el clima y la salud humana. Consideramos los casos en donde se han puesto en peligro los programas longevos y multinacionales de recuperación de especies en peligro por las exenciones a las leyes de protección ambiental para facilitar la construcción rápida de barreras fronterizas que impiden el movimiento y la migración de animales, como es el caso de las fronteras entre EU y México y Polonia y Bielorrusia. Los megaproyectos de energía renovable, como la planta solar del Pinacate en México, en conjunto con las líneas de transmisión eléctrica y las redes de carreteras también dejan una gran huella sobre la tierra y se realizan con el mínimo o ningún cumplimiento bajo el aspecto de la seguridad nacional. La soberanía nacional también se ha usado para justificar la omisión de las leyes para proceder con proyectos similares, como la refinería de Dos Bocas en México y el canal Vistula Spit en Polonia. El énfasis sobre la seguridad también es evidente con el incremento del gasto militar de las mayores economías mundiales, lo que ha creado una desigualdad con las mejoras en la exigencia de la política ambiental. Las decisiones para priorizar la seguridad pueden debilitar los principios democráticos y los protocolos de revisión ambiental, banalizar la dependencia de la humanidad por los ecosistemas funcionales y contradecir la resolución de las Naciones Unidas sobre el derecho humano a un ambiente saludable. Cuando se denominan los proyectos de infraestructura como asuntos de seguridad nacional, también se fomenta el malestar civil y político al etiquetar como antinacionales a los disidentes, incluidos los defensores ambientales y los científicos de la conservación. Los líderes mundiales deben abstenerse de usar indebidamente los poderes extraordinarios, adherirse a las leyes y acuerdos internacionales y consultar con expertos y personas locales antes de actuar de forma unilateral en cuanto a proyectos que afectan las comunidades humanas y ecológicas.

Using the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa to inform decision-making.

The Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is an important tool for biological invasion policy and management and has been adopted as an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) standard to measure the severity of environmental impacts caused by organisms living outside their native ranges. EICAT has already been incorporated into some national and local decision-making procedures, making it a particularly relevant resource for addressing the impact of non-native species. Recently, some of the underlying conceptual principles of EICAT, particularly those related to the use of the precautionary approach, have been challenged. Although still relatively new, guidelines for the application and interpretation of EICAT will be periodically revisited by the IUCN community, based on scientific evidence, to improve the process. Some of the criticisms recently raised are based on subjectively selected assumptions that cannot be generalized and may harm global efforts to manage biological invasions. EICAT adopts a precautionary principle by considering a species' impact history elsewhere because some taxa have traits that can make them inherently more harmful. Furthermore, non-native species are often important drivers of biodiversity loss even in the presence of other pressures. Ignoring the precautionary principle when tackling the impacts of non-native species has led to devastating consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystems, as well as poor management outcomes, and thus to significant economic costs. EICAT is a relevant tool because it supports prioritization and management of non-native species and meeting and monitoring progress toward the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 6.

Uso de la Clasificación de Impacto Ambiental de los Taxones Exóticos de la UICN para la toma de decisiones Resumen La Clasificación de Impacto Ambiental de los Taxones Exóticos (EICAT, en inglés) es una herramienta importante para las políticas y manejo de las invasiones biológicas y ha sido adoptada como un estándar de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para medir la seriedad del impacto ambiental causado por los organismos que viven fuera de su extensión nativa. La EICAT ya ha sido incorporada a algunos procedimientos locales y nacionales de toma de decisiones, lo que la vuelve un recurso particularmente relevante para abordar el impacto de las especies no nativas. Algunos principios conceptuales subyacentes de la EICAT han sido cuestionados recientemente, en particular aquellos relacionados con el uso del principio de precaución. Aunque todavía son relativamente nuevas, las directrices para la aplicación e interpretación de la EICAT tendrán una revisión periódica, basada en evidencia científica, por parte de la comunidad de la UICN para mejorar el proceso. Algunas de las críticas recientes están basadas en suposiciones seleccionadas subjetivamente que no pueden generalizarse y podrían perjudicar los esfuerzos globales para manejar las invasiones biológicas. La EICAT adopta un principio de precaución cuando considera el historial de impacto de una especie en cualquier otro lugar ya que algunos taxones tienen características que podrían volverlos más dañinos. Además, las especies no nativas suelen ser factores de pérdida de bidiversidad, incluso bajo otras presiones. Cuando ignoramos el principio de precaución al abordar el impacto de las especies no nativas, hay consecuencias devastadoras para el bienestar humano, la biodiversidad y los ecosistemas, así como resultados pobres de conservación, y por lo tanto con costos económicos importantes. La EICAT es una herramienta relevante porque respalda la priorización y el manejo de las especies no nativas y ayuda con el cumplimiento y monitoreo del progreso para llegar al objetivo 6 del Marco Mundial de Biodiversidad Kunming­Montreal.

Probabilistic Reference and 10% Effect Concentrations for Characterizing Inhalation Non-cancer and Developmental/Reproductive Effects for 2,160 Substances.

Chemicals assessment and management frameworks rely on regulatory toxicity values, which are based on points of departure (POD) identified following rigorous dose-response assessments. Yet, regulatory PODs and toxicity values for inhalation exposure (i.e., reference concentrations [RfCs]) are available for only ∼200 chemicals. To address this gap, we applied a workflow to determine surrogate inhalation route PODs and corresponding toxicity values, where regulatory assessments are lacking. We curated and selected inhalation in vivo data from the U.S. EPA's ToxValDB and adjusted reported effect values to chronic human equivalent benchmark concentrations (BMCh) following the WHO/IPCS framework. Using ToxValDB chemicals with existing PODs associated with regulatory toxicity values, we found that the 25th %-ile of a chemical's BMCh distribution (PODp25BMCh) could serve as a suitable surrogate for regulatory PODs (Q2 ≥ 0.76, RSE ≤ 0.82 log10 units). We applied this approach to derive PODp25BMCh for 2,095 substances with general non-cancer toxicity effects and 638 substances with reproductive/developmental toxicity effects, yielding a total coverage of 2,160 substances. From these PODp25BMCh, we derived probabilistic RfCs and human population effect concentrations. With this work, we have expanded the number of chemicals with toxicity values available, thereby enabling a much broader coverage for inhalation risk and impact assessment.

What Is the Impact of Accidentally Transporting Terrestrial Alien Species? A New Life Cycle Impact Assessment Model.

Alien species form one of the main threats to global biodiversity. Although Life Cycle Assessment attempts to holistically assess environmental impacts of products and services across value chains, ecological impacts of the introduction of alien species are so far not assessed in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Here, we developed country-to-country-specific characterization factors, expressed as the time-integrated potentially disappeared fraction (PDF; regional and global) of native terrestrial species due to alien species introductions per unit of goods transported [kg] between two countries. The characterization factors were generated by analyzing global data on first records of alien species, native species distributions, and their threat status, as well as bilateral trade partnerships from 1870-2019. The resulting characterization factors vary over several orders of magnitude, indicating that impact greatly varies per transportation route and trading partner. We showcase the applicability and relevance of the characterization factors for transporting 1 metric ton of freight to France from China, South Africa, and Madagascar. The results suggest that the introduction of alien species can be more damaging for terrestrial biodiversity as climate change impacts during the international transport of commodities.

The Global Environmental Impacts of China's Accession to the WTO: A 20-Year Review.

Robust empirical assessments of the long-term cumulative global effects of free trade and economic globalization on the environment are limited. This account fills this gap by constructing a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to estimate the environmental effects of a milestone in the recent history of trade liberalization: China's 20-year World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. The modeling shows that China's accession could have resulted in an increase in the global cumulative greenhouse gases (GHGs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by roughly 14,000 Mt CO2-eq, 64 Mt, and 46 Mt, respectively. The global production scale effect contributed to most of these estimated increases. The regional total output composition effect also caused higher emissions. Meanwhile, the sectoral output composition effect helped reduce total emissions to a limited extent. Fortunately, a package of emission abatement measures led to a decrease in emission factors and a drop in the global cumulative emissions of GHGs, SO2, and NOx. The findings suggest that to enjoy the free trade and economic globalization benefits and minimize the induced emission increases, it is vitally important to systemically reduce emissions across the entire economy and nurture a low-carbon trade regime.

Indigenized Characterization Factors for Health Damage Due to Ambient PM2.5 in Life Cycle Impact Assessment in China.

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a broadly used method for quantifying environmental impacts, and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is an important step as well as a major source of uncertainties in LCA. Characterization factors (CFs) are pivotal elements in LCIA models. In China, the health loss due to ambient PM2.5 is an important aspect of LCIA results, which, however, is generally assessed by adopting CFs developed by global models and there remains a need to integrate localized considerations and the latest information for more precise applications in China. In this study, we developed indigenized CFs for LCIA of health damage due to ambient PM2.5 in China by coupling the atmospheric chemical transport model GEOS-Chem, exposure-response model GEMM containing Chinese cohort studies, and the latest local data. Results show that CFs of four major PM2.5 precursors all exhibit significant interregional variation and monthly differences in China. Our results were generally an order of magnitude higher and show disparate spatial distribution compared to CFs currently in use, suggesting that the health damage due to ambient PM2.5 was underestimated in LCIA in China, and indigenized CFs need to be adopted for more accurate results in LCIA and LCA studies.

Two-Stage Machine Learning-Based Approach to Predict Points of Departure for Human Noncancer and Developmental/Reproductive Effects.

Chemical points of departure (PODs) for critical health effects are crucial for evaluating and managing human health risks and impacts from exposure. However, PODs are unavailable for most chemicals in commerce due to a lack of in vivo toxicity data. We therefore developed a two-stage machine learning (ML) framework to predict human-equivalent PODs for oral exposure to organic chemicals based on chemical structure. Utilizing ML-based predictions for structural/physical/chemical/toxicological properties from OPERA 2.9 as features (Stage 1), ML models using random forest regression were trained with human-equivalent PODs derived from in vivo data sets for general noncancer effects (n = 1,791) and reproductive/developmental effects (n = 2,228), with robust cross-validation for feature selection and estimating generalization errors (Stage 2). These two-stage models accurately predicted PODs for both effect categories with cross-validation-based root-mean-squared errors less than an order of magnitude. We then applied one or both models to 34,046 chemicals expected to be in the environment, revealing several thousand chemicals of moderate concern and several hundred chemicals of high concern for health effects at estimated median population exposure levels. Further application can expand by orders of magnitude the coverage of organic chemicals that can be evaluated for their human health risks and impacts.

Land Resources for Wind Energy Development Requires Regionalized Characterizations.

Estimates of the land area occupied by wind energy differ by orders of magnitude due to data scarcity and inconsistent methodology. We developed a method that combines machine learning-based imagery analysis and geographic information systems and examined the land area of 318 wind farms (15,871 turbines) in the U.S. portion of the Western Interconnection. We found that prior land use and human modification in the project area are critical for land-use efficiency and land transformation of wind projects. Projects developed in areas with little human modification have a land-use efficiency of 63.8 ± 8.9 W/m2 (mean ±95% confidence interval) and a land transformation of 0.24 ± 0.07 m2/MWh, while values for projects in areas with high human modification are 447 ± 49.4 W/m2 and 0.05 ± 0.01 m2/MWh, respectively. We show that land resources for wind can be quantified consistently with our replicable method, a method that obviates >99% of the workload using machine learning. To quantify the peripheral impact of a turbine, buffered geometry can be used as a proxy for measuring land resources and metrics when a large enough impact radius is assumed (e.g., >4 times the rotor diameter). Our analysis provides a necessary first step toward regionalized impact assessment and improved comparisons of energy alternatives.

A realist impact evaluation of a tool to strengthen equity in local government policy-making.

BACKGROUND: Local governments have a critical role to play in addressing health inequities. Health equity impact assessments are recommended to help governments apply an equity lens to the development and implementation of policies and programs. Despite evidence of equity-positive benefits of such tools, adoption remains limited, prompting calls for evaluations to assess their impact and identify factors that will promote uptake across various contexts. METHODS: We conducted a mixed method study to evaluate the impact of an equity impact assessment (EIA) tool and process on policies and organisational capacity in a local government in Victoria, Australia, and identify factors that influenced this impact. We analysed 33 documents related to 18 EIAs, and conducted surveys (n = 40) and in-depth interviews (n = 17) with staff involved in EIAs. RESULTS: Almost all (17 of 18) EIAs resulted in equity-positive changes to policies and programs, most frequently addressing individual-level factors, such as making community communications and consultations more accessible to under-represented or under-served groups. Structural-level recommendations from one EIA, such as increasing diversity in decision-making panels, were found to impact both the current policy and a broad range of future, related projects and services. Improvements in equity-centric organisational culture and capacity (including staff awareness, skills and confidence) and increased engagement with under-represented communities were also reported. Factors perceived to influence the impact of EIA's related to organisational commitment and capacity to prioritise equity, process-level factors related to the type and timing of EIAs, and extent of implementation support. CONCLUSION: Our study supports wider uptake of health equity impact assessments in local government policies and programs. Legislation, leadership and resources from upper-tiers of government can help increase the adoption of equity tools to reduce disparities in population health.

Health implications of urban tree canopy policy scenarios in Denver and Phoenix: A quantitative health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Urban tree canopy (UTC) goals are a popular policy to increase urban vegetation, support climate strategies, and encourage a healthy environment. Health studies related to UTC are needed across cities to support evidence-based decision-making. METHODS: We used a quantitative Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to model the annual number of premature deaths prevented, and the number of stroke and dementia cases, under UTC goals in Denver, Colorado, and Phoenix, Arizona, USA, using standing policy goals (20% and 25% UTC, respectively) and 50% ("half-way") attainment scenarios from current levels (16.5% and 13% UTC, respectively), using publicly accessible national datasets, and a proportional representation of UTC change to standardize across methodologies. We estimated UTC health impacts by relating UTC with scenario-based changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and considered health equity in UTC distributions and benefits. RESULTS: We projected that at 2020 populations, uniform 20% UTC attainment across Denver block groups would avert 200 (95% uncertainty interval: (UI) 100, 306) annual premature deaths among adults 18 and older, along with 4.1 (95% UI: 2.2, 6.7) annual cases of stroke (adults ≥35), and 2.6 (95% UI: 1.5, 4.1) cases of dementia (adults ≥65), with "halfway" attainment from current levels (16.5% UTC) capturing ∼64% of these benefits. In Phoenix, uniform 25% UTC would annually prevent 368 (95% UI: 181, 558) premature deaths, 8.7 (95% UI: 4.7, 13.9) cases of stroke, and 5,1 (95% UI: 2.9, 8.0) of dementia, with the "halfway" scenario (17% UTC) achieving ∼44% of these results. Both cities saw significantly different greenspace exposures and health outcomes by socioeconomic vulnerability. Denver had more spatially and socioeconomically heterogeneous projected health benefits than Phoenix. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing UTC goals can prevent excess mortality and chronic diseases among urban residents. UTC goals can be used as a health promotion and prevention tool.

Ambient PM2.5 exposure and rapid population aging: A double threat to public health in the Republic of Korea.

Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) can infiltrate deep into the respiratory system, posing significant health risks. Notably, the health burden of PM2.5 is more pronounced among the older adult population. With an aging population, the public health burden attributable to PM2.5 could escalate even if the current PM2.5 level remains stable. This study evaluated the number of deaths attributable to long-term PM2.5 exposure in the Republic of Korea between 2020 and 2050 and identified the PM2.5 concentration required at least to maintain the current PM2.5 health burden. To calculate mortality for 2020-2050, we performed a health impact assessment using 3-year (2019-2021) average population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations, age-specific population and mortality rates. In 2020, 33,578 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 31,708-35,448] deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Projecting forward, if the 2019-2021 average PM2.5 level remains constant, mortality is projected to be 112,953 (95% CI = 109,963-115,943) in 2050, more than three times higher than in 2020. To maintain the same level of health burden in 2050 as in 2020, the PM2.5 concentration needs to be immediately reduced to 5.8 µg/m3. In an age-specific analysis, the proportion of older adults (ages 65+) to total mortality would increase from 83% (2020) to 96% (2050), indicating that the rising mortality is predominantly driven by the aging population. By region, the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations, which is required immediately in 2020 to have the health burden in 2050 equal to that in 2020, varied from 3.6 µg/m3 in Goheung-gun (25% reduction) to 20.8 µg/m3 in Heungdeok-gu (82% reduction). Our study emphasizes the critical need for air quality management to consider aging populations when establishing PM2.5 air quality standards, as well as their associated policies and regulations.

Urban green spaces and behavioral and cognitive development in children: A health impact assessment of the Barcelona "Eixos Verds" Plan (Green Axis Plan).

BACKGROUND: Urban environments lack natural features, while nature exposure in cities has been associated with health benefits, including children's neurodevelopment. Through extensive street greening, Barcelona's Eixos Verds (Green Axis) Plan enhances safety, environment, and climate resilience. We aimed to assess the Eixos Verds Plan's potential impact on children's behavioral and cognitive development due to the increased green space expected under the Eixos Verds implementation. METHODS: We performed a quantitative health impact assessment for Barcelona children at census-tract level (n = 1068). We assessed the Eixos Verds Plan's impact by comparing baseline green space distribution with the proposed plan, translating it into percentage green area (%GA) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). By combining these exposure metrics with child-specific risk estimates and population data, we estimated potential improvements in children's behavioral and cognitive development due to full Eixos Verds implementation. RESULTS: With the full Eixos Verds implementation, citywide, %GA increased by 6.9% (IQR: 6.4%; range: 0-23.1%) and NDVI by 0.065 (IQR: 0.083; range: 0.000-0.194). Child behavioral and cognitive development outcomes are expected to improve compared to the baseline. Based on NDVI increases, children's Total Difficulties and Hyperactivity/Inattention scores, based on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), are projected to decrease by 5% (95% CI: 0-15%) and 6% (95% CI: 0-17%). Working Memory and Superior Working Memory scores are expected to increase by 4% and 5%, respectively, based on the computerized n-back test, while the Inattentiveness score could be reduced by 1%, based on the computerized attentional test (ANT). INTERPRETATION: Urban greening as planning tool can improve behavioral and cognitive development in city children. Methods and results of our study are applicable to many cities worldwide, and similar results for children of real-life urban greening interventions can be expected.

Potential environmental and human health menace of spent graphite in lithium-ion batteries.

The growing demand for lithium-ion batteries for portable electronics and electric vehicles results in a booming lithium battery market, leading to a concomitant increase in spent graphite. This research investigated the potential impacts of spent graphite on environmental and human health using standardized toxicity extraction and Life Cycle Impact Assessment models. The spent graphite samples were classified as hazardous waste due to the average nickel content of 337.14 mg/L according to Chinese regulations. Besides, cadmium and fluorine were the other elements that exceeded the regulations threshold. Easily ignored aluminum and heavy metal cobalt are other harmful elements according to the results of Life Cycle Impact Assessments. All the metallic harmful elements mainly exist in a transferable state. Thermogravimetry infrared spectrometry coupled with mass spectrometry was employed to recognize the emitted gases and explore gas emission behavior. Inorganic gases of CO, H2S, SO2, SO3, oxynitride, HCl, and fluoride-containing gases were detected. Sulfur-containing gases released from spent graphite were contributed by the residual sulfuric acid after leaching. The correlation between the evolution of emitted gases and the heating schedule was established simultaneously. The research comprehensively illustrates the pollution of spent graphite and provides assistance for the design of green recycling schemes for spent graphite.

A novel approach to deriving the fine-scale daily NO2 dataset during 2005-2020 in China: Improving spatial resolution and temporal coverage to advance exposure assessment.

Surface NO2 pollution can result in serious health consequences such as cardiovascular disease, asthma, and premature mortality. Due to the extensive spatial variation in surface NO2, the spatial resolution of a NO2 dataset has a significant impact on the exposure and health impact assessment. There is currently no long-term, high-resolution, and publicly available NO2 dataset for China. To fill this gap, this study generated a NO2 dataset named RBE-DS-NO2 for China during 2005-2020 at 1 km and daily resolution. We employed the robust back-extrapolation via a data augmentation approach (RBE-DA) to ensure the predictive accuracy in back-extrapolation before 2013, and utilized an improved spatial downscaling technique (DS) to refine the spatial resolution from 10 km to 1 km. Back-extrapolation validation based on 2005-2012 observations from sites in Taiwan province yielded an R2 of 0.72 and RMSE of 10.7 µg/m3, while cross-validation across China during 2013-2020 showed an R2 of 0.73 and RMSE of 9.6 µg/m3. RBE-DS-NO2 better captured spatiotemporal variation of surface NO2 in China compared to the existing publicly available datasets. Exposure assessment using RBE-DS-NO2 show that the population living in non-attainment areas (NO2 ≥ 30 µg/m3) grew from 376 million in 2005 to 612 million in 2012, then declined to 404 million by 2020. Unlike this national trend, exposure levels in several major cities (e.g., Shanghai and Chengdu) continued to increase during 2012-2020, driven by population growth and urban migration. Furthermore, this study revealed that low-resolution dataset (i.e., the 10 km intermediate dataset before the downscaling) overestimated NO2 levels, due to the limited specificity of the low-resolution model in simulating the relationship between NO2 and the predictor variables. Such limited specificity likely biased previous long-term NO2 exposure and health impact studies employing low-resolution datasets. The RBE-DS-NO2 dataset enables robust long-term assessments of NO2 exposure and health impacts in China.