AKI-Pro score for predicting progression to severe acute kidney injury or death in patients with early acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: No reliable clinical tools exist to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) progression. We aim to explore a scoring system for predicting the composite outcome of progression to severe AKI or death within seven days among early AKI patients after cardiac surgery. METHODS: In this study, we used two independent cohorts, and patients who experienced mild/moderate AKI within 48 h after cardiac surgery were enrolled. Eventually, 3188 patients from the MIMIC-IV database were used as the derivation cohort, while 499 patients from the Zhongshan cohort were used as external validation. The primary outcome was defined by the composite outcome of progression to severe AKI or death within seven days after enrollment. The variables identified by LASSO regression analysis were entered into logistic regression models and were used to construct the risk score. RESULTS: The composite outcome accounted for 3.7% (n = 119) and 7.6% (n = 38) of the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Six predictors were assembled into a risk score (AKI-Pro score), including female, baseline eGFR, aortic surgery, modified furosemide responsiveness index (mFRI), SOFA, and AKI stage. And we stratified the risk score into four groups: low, moderate, high, and very high risk. The risk score displayed satisfied predictive discrimination and calibration in the derivation and validation cohort. The AKI-Pro score discriminated the composite outcome better than CRATE score, Cleveland score, AKICS score, Simplified renal index, and SRI risk score (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The AKI-Pro score is a new clinical tool that could assist clinicians to identify early AKI patients at high risk for AKI progression or death.

Immunosuppression induces regression of fibrosis in primary biliary cholangitis with moderate-to-severe interface hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: In patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), the presence of moderate-to-severe interface hepatitis is associated with a higher risk of liver transplantation and death. This highlights the need for novel treatment approaches. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether combination therapy of UDCA and immunosuppressant (IS) was more effective than UDCA monotherapy. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter study involving PBC patients with moderate-to-severe interface hepatitis who underwent paired liver biopsies. Firstly, we compared the efficacy of the combination therapy with UDCA monotherapy on improving biochemistry, histology, survival rates, and prognosis. Subsequently we investigated the predictors of a beneficial response. RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study with prospectively collected data was conducted in China from January 2009 to April 2023. Of the 198 enrolled patients, 32 underwent UDCA monotherapy, while 166 received combination therapy, consisting of UDCA combined with prednisolone, prednisolone plus mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), or prednisolone plus azathioprine (AZA). The monotherapy group was treated for a median duration of 37.6 months (IQR 27.5-58.1), and the combination therapy group had a median treatment duration of 39.3 months (IQR 34.5-48.8). The combination therapy showed a significantly greater efficacy in reducing fibrosis compared to UDCA monotherapy, with an 8.3-fold increase in the regression rate (from 6.3% to 52.4%, P < 0.001). Other parameters, including biochemistry, survival rates, and prognosis, supported its effectiveness. Baseline IgG >1.3 × ULN and ALP <2.4 × ULN were identified as predictors of regression following the combination therapy. A predictive score named FRS, combining these variables, accurately identified individuals achieving fibrosis regression with a cut-off point of ≥ -0.163. The predictive value was validated internally and externally. CONCLUSION: Combination therapy with IS improves outcomes in PBC patients with moderate-to-severe interface hepatitis compared to UDCA monotherapy. Baseline IgG and ALP are the most significant predictors of fibrosis regression. The new predictive score, FRS, incorporating baseline IgG and ALP, can effectively identify individuals who would benefit from the combination therapy.

A score for predicting colchicine resistance at the time of diagnosis in familial Mediterranean fever: data from the TURPAID registry.

OBJECTIVES: Colchicine forms the mainstay of treatment in FMF. Approximately 5-10% of FMF patients are colchicine resistant and require anti-IL-1 drugs. We aimed to compare the characteristics of colchicine-resistant and colchicine-responsive patients and to develop a score for predicting colchicine resistance at the time of FMF diagnosis. METHODS: FMF patients (0-18 years) enrolled in the Turkish Paediatric Autoinflammatory Diseases (TURPAID) registry were included. The predictive score for colchicine resistance was developed by using univariate/multivariate regression and receiver operating characteristics analyses. RESULTS: A total of 3445 FMF patients [256 (7.4%) colchicine-resistant and 3189 colchicine-responsive) were included (female:male ratio 1.02; median age at diagnosis 67.4 months). Colchicine-resistant patients had longer, more frequent attacks and were younger at symptom onset and diagnosis (P < 0.05). Fever, erysipelas-like erythema, arthralgia, arthritis, myalgia, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, chest pain, comorbidities, parental consanguinity and homozygosity/compound heterozygosity for exon 10 MEFV mutations were significantly more prevalent among colchicine-resistant than colchicine-responsive patients (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training cohort (n = 2684) showed that age at symptom onset, attack frequency, arthritis, chest pain and having two exon 10 mutations were the strongest predictors of colchicine resistance. The score including these items had a sensitivity of 81.3% and a specificity of 49.1%. In the validation cohort (n = 671), its sensitivity was 93.5% and specificity was 53.8%. CONCLUSION: We developed a clinician-friendly and practical predictive score that could help us identify FMF patients with a greater risk of colchicine resistance and tailor disease management individually at the time of diagnosis.

A system of predictive scores to evaluate the risk of multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures in patients with traumatic cervical spine injury.

PURPOSE: To develop a predictive scoring system to identify traumatic cervical spine injury patients at a high risk of having multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures. METHODS: This 12-year retrospective observational cohort study included 588 traumatic cervical spine-injured patients. Patients were categorized into two groups: patients with multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures and patients without this remote injury. Potential risk factors were examined using multivariable analysis to derive a predictive risk score from independent predictors. Results are presented as odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The accuracy of the calculated predicted score was demonstrated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC). RESULTS: The incidence of noncontiguous fracture among the patients was 17% (100 of 588). The independent risk factors associated with multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures were motor weakness, intracranial injury, intrathoracic injury, and intraabdominal injury. The AuROC of the prediction score was 0.74 (95% CI 0.69, 0.80). The patients were classified into three groups, low-risk group (score< 1), moderate-risk group (score 1-2.5), and high-risk group (score≥ 3), based on the predicted risk of multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures. CONCLUSIONS: This tool can potentially help preventing the missed diagnosis of cervical spine injuries with multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures. CT scans or MRI of the entire spine to investigate remote multilevel noncontiguous spinal fractures may have a role in cervical spine-injured patients who have at least one of the independent risk factors and are strongly suggested for patients with scores in the high-risk group.

Determinants and predictive model of failure of surgical repair of obstetric vesico-vaginal fistula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

INTRODUCTION: Surgical repair of obstetric fistula aims to restore the anatomical and functional integrity of the urinary tract, enabling affected women to regain their dignity and quality of life. However, such repairs can end in a failure. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive score to identify factors influencing failure of surgical repair of obstetric vesico-vaginal fistula (FSROVVF) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. METHODS: This was an analytical cross-sectional study of 318 women with obstetric vesico-vaginal fistula (OVVF) who had undergone surgical management. A bivariate and then a multivariate analysis were performed. Score discrimination was assessed using the ROC curve and C-index, and score calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: Surgical repair of OVVF was unsuccessful in 16.98% of cases (54/318). After logistic modeling, six criteria emerged as predictive factors for FSROVVF: the presence of fibrosis (AOR = 5.01; 95% CI:1.73-14.49), the presence of 2 or more fistulas (AOR = 9.04; 95% CI:3.01-27.13), the association of OVVF with another anatomoclinical entity of fistula (AOR = 3.16; 95% CI:1.09-9.13), the fistula size > 3 cm (AOR = 3.65; 95% CI:1.36-9.76), the peri-operative hemorrhage (AOR = 7.01; 95% CI:2.33-21.03), and the post-operative infection (AOR = 178.89; 95% CI:26.09-1226.64). A score ranging from 0 to 13 points was obtained, of which a value ≤ 5 points defines a low risk of FSROVVF, a value between 6 and 8 points defines a moderate risk and value ≥ 9 points corresponds to a high risk of FSROVVF. The area under the ROC curve of the score is 0.925 with a sensitivity of 61.11%, a specificity of 96.59%, a positive predictive value of 78.57% and a negative predictive value of 92.39%. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the number of fistulas ≥ 2, fistula size > 3 cm, fibrosis, association of OVVF with other types of fistulas, peri-operative hemorrhage, and post-operative infection are factors predictive of FSROVVF. These six factors are key contributors to the score used to predict FSROVVF. Once validated, this score will inform and enable preoperative counseling regarding the prognosis and the chances of a successful outcome of surgical repair of OVVF.

Combination of alpha-fetoprotein and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio to predict treatment response and survival outcomes of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, long-term survival outcomes and treatment response of HCC patients undergoing immunotherapy is unpredictable. The study aimed to evaluate the role of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) combined with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict the prognosis and treatment response of HCC patients receiving ICIs. METHODS: Patients with unresectable HCC who received ICI treatment were included. The HCC immunotherapy score was developed from a retrospective cohort at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital to form the training cohort. The clinical variables independently associated with overall survival (OS) were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Based on multivariate analysis of OS, a predictive score based on AFP and NLR was constructed, and patients were stratified into three risk groups according to this score. The clinical utility of this score to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and differentiate objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) was also performed. This score was validated in an independent external validation cohort at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. RESULTS: Baseline AFP ≤ 400 ng/ml (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48; 95% CI, 0.24-0.97; P = 0.039) and NLR ≤ 2.77 (HR 0.11; 95% CI, 0.03-0.37; P<0.001) were found to be independent risk factors of OS. The two labolatory values were used to develop the score to predict survival outcomes and treatment response in HCC patients receiving immunotherapy, which assigned 1 point for AFP > 400 ng/ml and 3 points for NLR > 2.77. Patients with 0 point were classified as the low-risk group. Patients with 1-3 points were categorized as the intermediate-risk group. Patients with 4 points were classified as the high-risk group. In the training cohort, the median OS of the low-risk group was not reached. The median OS of the intermediate-risk group and high-risk group were 29.0 (95% CI 20.8-37.3) months and 16.0 (95% CI 10.8-21.2) months, respectively (P < 0.001). The median PFS of the low-risk group was not reached. The median PFS of the intermediate-risk group and high-risk group were 14.6 (95% CI 11.3-17.8) months and 7.6 (95% CI 3.6-11.7) months, respectively (P < 0.001). The ORR and DCR were highest in the low-risk group, followed by the intermediate-risk group and the high-risk group (P < 0.001, P = 0.007, respectively). This score also had good predictive power using the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The HCC immunotherapy score based on AFP and NLR can predict survival outcomes and treatment response in patients receiving ICI treatments, suggesting that this score could serve as a useful tool for identification of HCC patients likely to benefit from immunotherapy.

Risk factors of progression from discoid lupus to severe systemic lupus erythematosus: a registry-based cohort study of 164 patients.

BACKGROUND: No study has assessed the risk factors of progression from discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE) to severe systemic lupus erythematosus (sSLE) (defined as requiring hospitalization and specific treatment). OBJECTIVE: To identify the risks factors of and generate a predicting score for progression to sSLE among patients with isolated DLE or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus with mild biological abnormalities. METHODS: In this registry-based cohort study, multivariable analysis was performed using risk factors identified from literature and pruned by backward selection to identify relevant variables. The number of points was weighted proportionally to the odds ratio (OR). RESULTS: We included 30 patients with DLE who developed sSLE and 134 patients who did not. In multivariable analysis, among 12 selected variables, an age of <25 years at the time of DLE diagnosis (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1-7.0; 1 point), phototype V to VI (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.1-7.0; 1 point), and antinuclear antibody titers of ≥1:320 (OR, 15; 95% CI, 3.3-67.3; 5 points) were selected to generate the score. Among the 54 patients with a score of 0 at baseline, none progressed to sSLE, whereas a score of ≥6 was associated with a risk of approximately 40%. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective design. CONCLUSION: In our cohort, an age of <25 years at the time of DLE diagnosis, phototype V to VI, and antinuclear antibody titers of ≥1:320 were risk factors for developing sSLE.

Development and internal validation of a predictive score for the diagnosis of central adrenal insufficiency when morning cortisol is in the grey zone.

BACKGROUND: When evaluating a patient for central adrenal insufficiency (CAI), there is a wide range of morning cortisol values for which no definite conclusion on hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function can be drawn; in these cases, a stimulation test is required. Aim of this study was to develop an integrated model for CAI prediction when morning cortisol is in the grey zone, here defined as 40.0-160.0 µg/L. METHODS: Overall, 119 patients with history of sellar tumour which underwent insulin tolerance test (ITT) for the evaluation of HPA axis were enrolled. Supervised regression techniques were used for model development. RESULTS: An integrated predictive model was developed and internally validated, and showed a significantly better diagnostic performance than morning cortisol alone (AUC 0.811 vs 0.699, p = 0.003). A novel predictive score (CAI-score) was retrieved, on a 5.5-point scale, by considering morning cortisol (0 points if 130.1-160.0 µg/L, 1 point if 100.1-130.0 µg/L, 1.5 points if 70.1-100.0 µg/L, 2.5 points if 40.0-70.0 µg/L), other pituitary deficits (2 points if ≥ 3 deficits), and sex (1 point if male). A diagnostic algorithm integrating CAI-score and ITT was finally proposed, with an overall accuracy of 99%, and the possibility to avoid the execution of stimulation tests in 25% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first study that proposed an integrated score for the prediction of CAI when morning cortisol is in the grey zone. This score might be helpful to reduce the number of patients who need a stimulation test for the assessment of HPA axis function.

Post-hepatectomy biliary leaks: analysis of risk factors and development of a simplified predictive scoring system.

PURPOSE: Most studies identifying risk factors for post-hepatectomy biliary leaks (PHBLs) have relatively small proportions of major hepatectomies. A simplified predictive score to identify high risk patients is necessary in order to investigate the efficacy of mitigation strategies. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of liver resections from a high-volume cancer center was performed. Multivariate regression was utilized for identification of risk factors and development of the predictive score. RESULTS: A total of 862 patients underwent a curative hepatic resection over 10 years, of whom 146 (16.9%) developed a biliary leak; 85 (9.86%), 52 (6.03%), and 9 (1.04%) patients had a grade A, B, and C leak respectively. A biliary-enteric anastomosis [OR 5.1 (95% CI 2.45-10.58); p < 0.001], a central [OR 4.33 (95% CI 1.25-14.95); p = 0.021] or an extended hepatectomy [OR 4.29 (95% CI 1.52-12.12); p = 0.006], liver steatosis [OR 2.28 (95% CI 1.09-4.77); p = 0.027], and blood loss of ≥ 2000 mL [OR 2.219 (95% CI 1.15-4.27); p = 0.017] were identified as independent predictors of a clinically significant biliary leak and were assigned 1 point each to develop the biliary leak score. Clinically significant biliary leaks were seen in 11 (2.79%), 20 (6.38%), 19 (15.4%), 9 (56.3%), and 1 (100%) patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A biliary-enteric anastomosis, a central or extended hepatectomy, liver steatosis, and blood loss ≥ 2L combined result in a simple predictive score for clinically significant biliary leaks.

An electrocardiographic score to predict pulmonary hypertension in children with atrial septal defect.

BACKGROUND: In limited resource settings, identification of factors that predict the occurrence of pulmonary hypertension(PH) in children with atrial septal defect(ASD) is important to decide which patients should be prioritized for defect closure to prevent complication. Echocardiography and cardiac catheterization are not widely available in such settings. No scoring system has been proposed to predict PH among children with ASD. We aimed to develop a PH prediction score using electrocardiography parameters for children with ASD in Indonesia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study reviewing medical record including ECG record was conducted among all children with newly diagnosed isolated ASD admitted to Dr Sardjito Hospital in Yogyakarta, Indonesia during 2016-2018. Diagnosis of ASD and PH was confirmed through echocardiography and/or cardiac catheterization. Spiegelhalter Knill-Jones approach was used to develop PH prediction score. Accuracy of prediction score was performed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Of 144 children, 50(34.7%) had PH. Predictors of pulmonary hypertension were QRS axis ≥120°, P wave ≥ 3 mm at lead II, R without S at V1, Q wave at V1, right bundle branch block (RBBB), R wave at V1, V2 or aVR > normal limit and S wave at V6 or lead I > normal limit. ROC curve from prediction scores yielded an area under the curve (AUC) 0.908(95% CI 0.85-0.96). Using the cut-off value 3.5, this PH prediction score had sensitivity of 76%(61.8-86.9), specificity 96.8%(91.0-99.3), positive predictive value 92.7%(80.5-97.5), negative predictive value 88.4%(82.2-92.6), and positive likelihood ratio 23.8(7.7-73.3). CONCLUSIONS: A presence of PH in children with ASD can be predicted by the simple electrocardiographic score including QRS axis ≥120°, P wave ≥3 mm at lead II, R without S at V1, Q wave at V1, RBBB, R wave at V1, V2 or aVR > normal limit and S wave at V6 or lead I > normal limit. A total score ≥ 3.5 shows a moderate sensitivity and high specificity to predict PH among children with ASD.

The prediction of postoperative delirium with the preoperative bispectral index in older aged patients: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative delirium (POD) is the most common postoperative complication in elderly patients, especially in older aged patients (aged 75 years or over). The development of electroencephalography analysis could provide indicators for early detection, intervention, and evaluation. If there are pathophysiological changes in the brain, the BIS value will also change accordingly. In this study, we investigated the predictive value of the preoperative bispectral (BIS) index in POD for patients aged over 75 years. METHODS: In this prospective study, patients (≥ 75 years) undergoing elective non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia were included (n = 308). Informed consent was obtained from all involved patients. Before the operation and during the first 5 postoperative days, delirium was assessed with the confusion assessment method by trained researchers twice every day. Thereafter, the preoperative bedside BIS of each patient was dynamically acquired by the BIS VISTA monitoring system and the BIS monitoring of electrodes. A series of evaluation scales were assessed before and after surgery. A preoperative predictive score was generated according to the results of multivariable logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and the area under the curves was estimated to evaluate the perioperative diagnostic values of BIS and preoperative predictive score for POD. The specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive (NPV) value were calculated. RESULTS: Delirium occurred in 50 of 308 (16.2%) patients. The median BIS of delirious patients was 86.7 (interquartile range [IQR] 80.0-94.0), lower than that of the non-delirious 91.9 (IQR 89.7-95.4, P < 0.001). According to the ROC curve of the BIS index, the optimal cut-off value was 84, with a sensitivity of 48%, specificity of 87%, PPV 43%, NPV 89% for forecasting POD and the area under curves was 0.67. While integrating BIS, mini-mental state examination, anemia, activities of daily living, and blood urea nitrogen, the model had a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 74%, PPV of 0.37%, and NPV of 95% for forecasting POD, and the area under curves was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative bedside BIS in delirium patients was lower than that in non-delirium patients when undergoing non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery in patients aged over 75. The model of integrating BIS, mini-mental state examination, anemia, activities of daily living, and blood urea nitrogen is a promising tool for predicting postoperative delirium in patients aged over 75.

A predictive score of high tibial osteotomy survivorship to help in surgical decision-making: the SKOOP score.

INTRODUCTION: The high tibial osteotomy (HTO) survival rate is strongly correlated with surgical indications and predictive factors. This study aims to assess HTO survival in the long term, to determine the main predictive factors of this survival, to propose a predictive score for HTO based on those factors. METHODS: This multicentric study included 481 HTO between 2004 and 2015. The inclusion criteria were all primary HTO in patients 70 years old and younger, without previous anterior cruciate ligament injury, and without the limitation of body mass index (BMI). The assessed data were preoperative clinical and radiological parameters, the surgical technique, the complications, the HKA (hip knee ankle angle) correction postoperatively, and the surgical revision at the last follow-up. RESULTS: The mean follow-up was 7.8 ± 2.9 years. The HTO survival was 93.1% at 5 years and 74.1% at 10 years. Age < 55, female sex, BMI < 25 kg/m2 and incomplete narrowing were preoperative factors that positively impacted HTO survival. A postoperative HKA angle greater than 180° was a positive factor for HTO survival. The SKOOP (Sfa Knee OsteOtomy Predictive) score, including age (threshold value of 55 years), BMI (threshold values of 25 and 35 kg/m2), and the presence or absence of complete joint line narrowing, have been described. If the scale was greater than 3, the survival probability was significantly lower (p < 0.001) than if the scale was less than 3. CONCLUSION: A predictive score including age, BMI, and the presence or absence of joint line narrowing can be a helpful in making decisions about HTO, particularly in borderline cases. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Retrospective cohort study.

PREDICT-crFMF score: A novel model for predicting colchicine resistance in children with familial Mediterranean fever.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a novel scoring system to predict colchicine resistance in Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) based on the initial features of the patients. METHODS: The medical records of patients were analyzed prior to the initiation of colchicine. After generating a predictive score in the initial cohort, it was applied to an independent cohort for external validation of effectiveness and reliability. RESULTS: Among 1418 patients with FMF, 56 (3.9%) were colchicine resistant (cr) and 1312 (96.1%) were colchicine responsive. Recurrent arthritis (4 points), protracted febrile myalgia (8 points), erysipelas-like erythema (2 points), exertional leg pain (2 points), and carrying M694V homozygous mutation (4 points) were determined as the parameters for predicting cr-FMF in the logistic regression model. The cut-off value of 9 was 87% sensitive and 82% specific to foresee the risk of cr-FMF in the receiver operating characteristic. Validation of the scoring system with an independent group (cr-FMF = 107, colchicine responsive = 1935) revealed that the cut-off value was 82% sensitive and 79% specific to identify the risk of cr-FMF. CONCLUSIONS: By constructing this reliable and predictor tool, we enunciate that predicting cr-FMF at the initiation of the disease and interfering timely before the emergence of complications will be possible.

Accuracy of a score predicting the presence of an atypical pathogen in hospitalized patients with moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Atypical pathogens (AP), present in some patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), are intrinsically resistant to betalactam drugs, the mainstay of empirical antibiotic treatment. Adding antibiotic coverage for AP increases the risk of adverse effects and antimicrobial selection pressure, while withholding such coverage may worsen the prognosis if an AP is causative. A clinical model predicting the presence of AP would allow targeting atypical coverage for patients most likely to benefit. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a multicentric randomized controlled trial that included 580 adults patients hospitalized for CAP. A predictive score was built using independent predictive factors for AP identified through multivariate analysis. Accuracy of the score was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: Prevalence of AP was 5.3%. Age < 75 years (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.2), heart failure (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.1), absence of chest pain (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-8.2), natremia < 135 mmol/L (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.6) and contracting the disease in autumn (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.9) were independently associated with AP. A predictive score using these factors had an AUROC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.85). A score of 0 or 1 (present in 33% of patients) had 100% sensitivity and 35% specificity. CONCLUSION: Use of a score built on easily obtained clinical and laboratory data would allow safe withholding of atypical antibiotic coverage in a significant number of patients, with an expected positive impact on bacterial resistance and drug adverse effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00818610.

A new screening tool for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on self-reported patient clinical characteristics: the COV19-ID score.

BACKGROUND: While several studies aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 cases to better anticipate intensive care unit admissions, very few have been conducted on self-reported patient symptoms and characteristics, predictive of RT-PCR test positivity. We therefore aimed to identify those predictive factors and construct a predictive score for the screening of patients at admission. METHODS: This was a monocentric retrospective analysis of clinical data from 9081 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection from August 1 to November 30 2020. A multivariable logistic regression using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was performed on a training dataset (60% of the data) to determine associations between self-reported patient characteristics and COVID-19 diagnosis. Regression coefficients were used to construct the Coronavirus 2019 Identification score (COV19-ID) and the optimal threshold calculated on the validation dataset (20%). Its predictive performance was finally evaluated on a test dataset (20%). RESULTS: A total of 2084 (22.9%) patients were tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using the LASSO model, COVID-19 was independently associated with loss of smell (Odds Ratio, 6.4), fever (OR, 2.7), history of contact with an infected person (OR, 1.7), loss of taste (OR, 1.5), muscle stiffness (OR, 1.5), cough (OR, 1.5), back pain (OR, 1.4), loss of appetite (OR, 1.3), as well as male sex (OR, 1.05). Conversely, COVID-19 was less likely associated with smoking (OR, 0.5), sore throat (OR, 0.9) and ear pain (OR, 0.9). All aforementioned variables were included in the COV19-ID score, which demonstrated on the test dataset an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 82.9% (95% CI 80.6%-84.9%), and an accuracy of 74.2% (95% CI 74.1%-74.3%) with a high sensitivity (80.4%, 95% CI [80.3%-80.6%]) and specificity (72.2%, 95% CI [72.2%-72.4%]). CONCLUSIONS: The COV19-ID score could be useful in early triage of patients needing RT-PCR testing thus alleviating the burden on laboratories, emergency rooms, and wards.

Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model of central venous catheter-tip colonization in a cohort of five randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: The majority of central venous catheters (CVC) removed in the ICU are not colonized, including when a catheter-related infection (CRI) is suspected. We developed and validated a predictive score to reduce unnecessary CVC removal. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study from five multicenter randomized controlled trials with systematic catheter-tip culture of consecutive CVCs. Colonization was defined as growth of ≥103 colony-forming units per mL. Risk factors for colonization were identified in the training cohort (CATHEDIA and 3SITES trials; 3899 CVCs of which 575 (15%) were colonized) through multivariable analyses. After internal validation in 500 bootstrapped samples, the CVC-OUT score was computed by attaching points to the robust (> 50% of the bootstraps) risk factors. External validation was performed in the testing cohort (CLEAN, DRESSING2 and ELVIS trials; 6848 CVCs, of which 588 (9%) were colonized). RESULTS: In the training cohort, obesity (1 point), diabetes (1 point), type of CVC (dialysis catheter, 1 point), anatomical insertion site (jugular, 4 points; femoral 5 points), rank of the catheter (second or subsequent, 1 point) and catheterization duration (≥ 5 days, 2 points) were significantly and independently associated with colonization . Area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the CVC-OUT score was 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.67-0.72]. In the testing cohort, AUC for the CVC-OUT score was 0.60, 95% CI [0.58-0.62]. Among 1,469 CVCs removed for suspected CRI in the overall population, 1200 (82%) were not colonized. The negative predictive value (NPV) of a CVC-OUT score < 6 points was 94%, 95% CI [93%-95%]. CONCLUSION: The CVC-OUT score had a moderate ability to discriminate catheter-tip colonization, but the high NPV may contribute to reduce unnecessary CVCs removal. Preference of the subclavian site is the strongest and only modifiable risk factor that reduces the likelihood of catheter-tip colonization and consequently the risk of CRI. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00277888, NCT01479153, NCT01629550, NCT01189682, NCT00875069.

A Simple Emergency Department-Based Score Predicts Complex Hospitalization in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Thirty percent of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients hospitalized with flare require salvage therapy or surgery. Additionally, 40% experience length of stay (LOS) > 7 days. No emergency department (ED)-based indices exist to predict these adverse outcomes at admission for IBD flare. We examined whether clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic markers at presentation predicted prolonged LOS, inpatient colectomy, or salvage therapy in IBD patients admitted with flare. METHODS: Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) or colonic involvement of Crohn's disease (CD) hospitalized with flare and tested for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) between 2010 and 2020 at two urban academic centers were studied. The primary outcome was complex hospitalization, defined as: LOS > 7 days, inpatient colectomy, or inpatient infliximab or cyclosporine. A nested k-fold cross-validation identified predictive factors of complex hospitalization. RESULTS: Of 164 IBD admissions, 34% (56) were complex. Predictive factors included: tachycardia in ED triage (odds ratio [OR] 3.35; confidence interval [CI] 1.79-4.91), hypotension in ED triage (3.45; 1.79-5.11), hypoalbuminemia at presentation (2.54; 1.15-3.93), CDI (2.62; 1.02-4.22), and endoscopic colitis (4.75; 1.75-5.15). An ED presentation score utilizing tachycardia and hypoalbuminemia predicted complex hospitalization (area under curve 0.744; CI 0.671-0.816). Forty-four of 48 (91.7%) patients with a presentation score of 0 (heart rate < 99 and albumin ≥ 3.4 g/dL) had noncomplex hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Over 90% of IBD patients hospitalized with flare with an ED presentation score of 0 did not require salvage therapy, inpatient colectomy, or experience prolonged LOS. A simple ED-based score may provide prognosis at a juncture of uncertainty in patient care.

A predictive score for detecting vesicoureteral reflux in children with their first Escherichia coli-induced urinary tract infection.

OBJECTIVES: In children with a first Escherichia coli-induced febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI), routine voiding cytourethrography (VCUG) is not recommended for detecting vesicoureteral reflux (VUR). Meanwhile, the sensitivity of renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) for detecting VUR is insufficient. Aiming to implement VCUG properly for children with a first E. coli-induced fUTI, we attempted to construct a predictive scoring system for the early screening of VUR. METHODS: This study enrolled patients aged <2 years of age hospitalized for their first E. coli-induced fUTI during the period when VCUG was implemented for all patients (2007-14, non-selective group [n = 111]) and only for those with VUR-suspected RBUS findings, bacteremia or acute focal bacterial nephritis (2016-19, selective group [n = 102]). We evaluated the accuracy of the current criteria and the VUR predictive score constructed using data from the non-selective group. RESULTS: In the non-selective group, 32 patients had VUR (29%). In the selective group, 20 of 45 VCUG-tested patients had VUR (44%). Among 57 patients not undergoing VCUG in the selective group, 8 had a recurrence of fUTI, 3 of whom were diagnosed with VUR. In the non-selective group, 9 patients with VUR did not fulfill the current criteria and the VUR predictive score consisting of young age, female sex, prolonged fever, hypoproteinemia, hyponatremia and hyperglycemia, showed higher sensitivity, specificity than the current criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The current imaging/bacteriological criteria were ineffective in screening for VUR in patients with their first E. coli-induced fUTI. The VUR predictive score can be an accurate indicator for implementing VCUG.

Development of a Score for Prediction of Occult Malignancy in Stroke Patients (Occult-5 Score).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Malignancy associated acute ischemic stroke (AIS) requires specific diagnostic work-up, treatment and prevention to improve outcome. This study aimed to develop a biomarker-based score for prediction of occult malignancy in AIS patients. METHODS: Single-center cross-sectional study including consecutive AIS patients treated between July 2017 and November 2018. Patients with active malignancy at presentation, or diagnosed within 1 year thereafter and patients free of malignancy, were included and malignancy associated biomarkers were assessed. LASSO analyses of logistic regression were performed to determine biomarkers predictive of active malignancy. Predictors were derived from a predictive model for active malignancy. A comparison between known and unknown (=occult) malignancies when the index stroke occurred was used to eliminate variables not associated with occult malignancy. A predictive score (OCCULT-5 score) for occult malignancy was developed based on the remaining variables. RESULTS: From 1001 AIS patients, 61 (6%) presented an active malignancy. Thirty-nine (64%) were known and 22 (36%) occult. Five variables were included in the final OCCULT-5 score: age ≥ 77 years, embolic stroke of undetermined source, multi-territorial infarcts, D-dimer levels ≥ 820 µ/gL, and female sex. A score of ≥ 3 predicted an underlying occult malignancy with a sensitivity of 64%, specificity of 73%, positive likelihood ratio of 2.35 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.50. CONCLUSIONS: The OCCULT-5 score might be useful to identify patients with occult malignancy. It may thus contribute to a more effective and timely treatment and thus lead to a positive impact on overall outcome.

A large observational data study supporting the PROsPeR score classification in poor ovarian responders according to live birth outcome.

STUDY QUESTION: Can the Poor Responder Outcome Prediction (PROsPeR) score identify live birth outcomes in subpopulations of patients with poor ovarian response (POR) defined according to the ESHRE Bologna criteria (female age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), number of oocytes retrieved during the previous cycle (PNO) after treatment with originator recombinant human follitropin alfa? SUMMARY ANSWER: The PROsPeR score discriminated the probability of live birth in patients with POR using observational data with fair discrimination (AUC ≅ 70%) and calibration, and the AUC losing less than 5% precision compared with a model developed using the observational data. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Although scoring systems for the likelihood of live birth after ART have been developed, their accuracy may be insufficient, as they have generally been developed in the general population with infertility and were not validated for patients with POR. The PROsPeR score was developed using data from the follitropin alfa (GONAL-f; Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany) arm of the Efficacy and Safety of Pergoveris in Assisted Reproductive Technology (ESPART) randomized controlled trial (RCT) and classifies women with POR as mild, moderate or severe, based upon three variables: female age, serum AMH level and number of oocytes retrieved during the previous cycle (PNO). STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The external validation of the PROsPeR score was completed using data derived from eight different centres in France. In addition, the follitropin alfa data from the ESPART RCT, originally used to develop the PROsPeR score, were used as reference cohort. The external validation of the PROsPeR score l was assessed using AUC. A predetermined non-inferiority limit of 0.10 compared with a reference sample and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) were the two conditions required for evaluation. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The observational cohort included data from 8085 ART treatment cycles performed with follitropin alfa in patients with POR defined according to the ESHRE Bologna criteria (17.6% of the initial data set). The ESPART cohort included 477 ART treatment cycles with ovarian stimulation performed with follitropin alfa in patients with POR. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The external validation of the PROsPeR score to identify subpopulations of women with POR with different live birth outcomes was shown in the observational cohort (AUC = 0.688; 95% CI: 0.662, 0.714) compared with the ESPART cohort (AUC = 0.695; 95% CI: 0.623, 0.767). The AUC difference was -0.0074 (95% CI: -0.083, 0.0689). This provided evidence, with 97.5% one-sided confidence, that there was a maximum estimated loss of 8.4% in discrimination between the observational cohort and the ESPART cohort, which was below the predetermined margin of 10%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test did not reject the calibration when comparing observed and predicted data (Hosmer-Lemeshow test = 1.266688; P = 0.260). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The study was based on secondary use of data that had not been collected specifically for the analysis reported here and the number of characteristics used to classify women with POR was limited to the available data. The data were from a limited number of ART centres in a single country, which may present a bias risk; however, baseline patient data were similar to other POR studies. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This evaluation of the PROsPeR score using observational data supports the notion that the likelihood of live birth may be calculated with reasonable precision using three readily available pieces of data (female age, serum AMH and PNO). The PROsPeR score has potential to be used to discriminate expected probability of live birth according to the degree of POR (mild, moderate, severe) after treatment with follitropin alfa, enabling comparison of performance at one centre over time and the comparison between centres. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This analysis was funded by Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. P.L. received grants from Merck KGaA, outside of the submitted work. N.M. reports grants, personal fees and non-financial support from Merck KGaA outside the submitted work. T.D.H. is Vice President and Head of Global Medical Affairs Fertility, Research and Development at Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. P.A. has received personal fees from Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, outside the submitted work. C.R. has received grants and personal fees from Gedeon Richter and Merck Serono S.A.S., France, an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, outside the submitted work. P.S. reports congress support from Merck Serono S.A.S., France (an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany), Gedeon Richter, TEVA and MDS outside the submitted work. C.A., J.P., G.P. and R.W. declare no conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.