Prediction of emergency department revisits among child and youth mental health outpatients using deep learning techniques.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of Canadian youth seeking mental health support from an emergency department (ED) has risen in recent years. As EDs typically address urgent mental health crises, revisiting an ED may represent unmet mental health needs. Accurate ED revisit prediction could aid early intervention and ensure efficient healthcare resource allocation. We examine the potential increased accuracy and performance of graph neural network (GNN) machine learning models compared to recurrent neural network (RNN), and baseline conventional machine learning and regression models for predicting ED revisit in electronic health record (EHR) data. METHODS: This study used EHR data for children and youth aged 4-17 seeking services at McMaster Children's Hospital's Child and Youth Mental Health Program outpatient service to develop and evaluate GNN and RNN models to predict whether a child/youth with an ED visit had an ED revisit within 30 days. GNN and RNN models were developed and compared against conventional baseline models. Model performance for GNN, RNN, XGBoost, decision tree and logistic regression models was evaluated using F1 scores. RESULTS: The GNN model outperformed the RNN model by an F1-score increase of 0.0511 and the best performing conventional machine learning model by an F1-score increase of 0.0470. Precision, recall, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and positive and negative predictive values showed that the GNN model performed the best, and the RNN model performed similarly to the XGBoost model. Performance increases were most noticeable for recall and negative predictive value than for precision and positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the improved accuracy and potential utility of GNN models in predicting ED revisits among children and youth, although model performance may not be sufficient for clinical implementation. Given the improvements in recall and negative predictive value, GNN models should be further explored to develop algorithms that can inform clinical decision-making in ways that facilitate targeted interventions, optimize resource allocation, and improve outcomes for children and youth.

Association of hospital-based substance use supports on emergency department revisits: a retrospective cohort study in Sudbury, Canada from 2018 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: This study compares emergency department (ED) revisits for patients receiving hospital-based substance-use support compared to those who did not receive specialized addiction services at Health Sciences North in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. METHODS: The study is a retrospective observational study using administrative data from all patients presenting with substance use disorder (SUD) at Health Sciences North from January 1, 2018, and August 31, 2022 with ICD-10 codes from the Discharge Abstract Database (DAD) and the National Ambulatory Care Database (NACRS). There were two interventions under study: addiction medicine consult services (AMCS group), and specialized addiction medicine unit (AMU group). The AMCS is a consult service offered for patients in the ED and those who are admitted to the hospital. The AMU is a specialized inpatient medical unit designed to offer addiction support to stabilize patients that operates under a harm-reduction philosophy. The primary outcome was all cause ED revisit within 30 days of the index ED or hospital visit. The secondary outcome was all observed ED revisits in the study period. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to measure the proportion of 30-day revisits by exposure group. Odds ratios and Hazard Ratios were calculated using logistic regression models with random effects and Cox-proportional hazard model respectively. RESULTS: A total of 5,367 patients with 10,871 ED index visits, and 2,127 revisits between 2018 and 2022 are included in the study. 45% (2,340/5,367) of patient were not admitted to hospital. 30-day revisits were less likely among the intervention group: Addiction Medicine Consult Services (AMCS) in the ED significantly reduced the odds of revisits (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39-0.71, p < 0.01) and first revisits (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.33-0.53, p < 0.01). The AMU group was associated with lower revisits odds (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.98, p = 0.03). For every additional year of age, the odds of revisits slightly decreased (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.00, p = 0.01) and males were found to have an increased risk compared to females (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.35-1.67, p < 0.01). INTERPRETATION: We observe statistically significant differences in ED revisits for patients receiving hospital-based substance-use support at Health Sciences North. Hospital-based substance-use supports could be applied to other hospitals to reduce 30-day revisits.

Cost variation and revisit rate for adult patients with asthma presenting to the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is common, resulting in 53 million emergency department (ED) visits annually. Little is known about variation in cost and quality of ED asthma care. STUDY OBJECTIVE: We sought to describe variation in costs and 7-day ED revisit rates for asthma care across EDs. Our primary objective was to test for an association between ED costs and the likelihood of a 7-day revisit for another asthma exacerbation. METHODS: We used the 2014 Florida State Emergency Department Database to perform an observational study of ED visits by patients ≥18 years old with a primary diagnosis of asthma that were discharged home. We compared patient and hospital characteristics of index ED discharges with and without 7-day revisits, then tested the association between ED revisits and index ED costs. Multilevel regression was performed to account for hospital-level clustering. RESULTS: In 2014, there were 54,060 adult ED visits for asthma resulting in discharge, and 1667 (3%) were associated with an asthma-related ED revisit within 7 days. Median cost for an episode of ED asthma care was $597 with an interquartile range of $371-980. After adjusting for both patient and hospital characteristics, lack of insurance was associated with higher odds of revisit (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.18-1.71), while private insurance, female gender, and older age were associated with lower odds of revisit. Hospital costs were not associated with ED revisits (OR = 1.00; 95% CI 1.00-1.00). CONCLUSION: Hospital costs associated with ED asthma visits vary but are not associated with odds of ED revisit.

Geriatric emergency department revisits after discharge with Potentially Inappropriate Medications: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIMs) prescribed in an academic emergency department (ED) are associated with increased ED revisits in older adults. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older, discharged from an academic ED (January 2012 - November 2015) with any PIMs versus no PIMs. PIMs were defined using Category 1 of the 2015 Updated Beers criteria. Primary outcomes, obtained from a Medicare database linked to hospital ED subjects, were ED revisits 3 and 30 days from index ED discharge. Adjusted multiple logistic regression was used with entropy balance weighted covariates: Age in years, Gender, Race, Number of discharge medications, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score, Emergency Severity Index scores (ESI), Chief Complaint, Medicaid status, and prior 90 Day ED visits. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were a total of 7,591 Medicare beneficiaries 65+ discharged from the ED with a prescription; 1,383 (18%) received one or more PIMs. ED revisits in 30 days were fewer for the PIMs cohort (12% PIMs vs 16% no PIMs, OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65 - 0.95, P value <0.005). Hospital admissions in 30 days were fewer for the PIMs cohort (4 PIMs vs 7% no PIMs, OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56 - 1.00, P value <0.005). In addition to PIMs, covariate risk factors associated with ED revisits in 30 days included comorbidity severity, history of prior ED revisits, chief complaint, and Medicaid status. Risk factors associated with hospitalization in 30 days included those plus age and emergency severity index, but not race nor ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Patients discharged from the ED receiving potentially inappropriate medications as defined by Category 1 of the 2015 updated Beers criteria had lower odds of revisiting the ED within 30 days of index visit. Sociodemographic factors such as gender and race did not predict ED revisits or hospital admissions. Clinical characteristics predicted ED revisits and hospital admissions, the strongest risk being increasing Charlson Comorbidity Index score followed by triage acuity and chief complaint. Future studies are needed to delineate the implications of our findings.

Community socioeconomic disadvantage drives type of 30-day medical-surgical revisits among patients with serious mental illness.

BACKGROUND: Patients with serious mental illness (SMI) are vulnerable to medical-surgical readmissions and emergency department visits. METHODS: We studied 1,914,619 patients with SMI discharged after medical-surgical admissions in Florida and New York between 2012 and 2015 and their revisits to the hospital within 30 days of discharge. RESULTS: Patients with SMI from the most disadvantaged communities had greater adjusted 30-day revisit rates than patients from less disadvantaged communities. Among those that experienced a revisit, patients from the most disadvantaged communities had 7.3 % greater 30-day observation stay revisits. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that additional investments are needed to ensure that patients with SMI from the most disadvantaged communities are receiving appropriate post-discharge care.

A Retrospective Cohort Study of Urgent Care Visits and Revisits for Headache/Migraine.

OBJECTIVE: Increasingly, patients are seeking same-day care at urgent care (UC) facilities. Little is known about the health care utilization patterns of patients who visit UC facilities for headache and migraine. We examined the frequency of headache and migraine visits and revisits at UC facilities. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of headache not otherwise specified (NOS) and migraine visits from 67 NYC UC facilities over an eight-month period. We report descriptive analyses, the frequency of headache NOS revisits, and the elapsed time to revisits. RESULTS: There were 10,240 patients who visited UC facilities for headache NOS or migraine within the eight-month period. The majority of patients, 6,994 (68.3%), were female, and the mean age (SD) was 35.1 (15.0) years. Most (93.9%) patients (N = 9,613) lived within 60 miles of NYC; 5.5% (N = 564) had at least one revisit, and among re-visitors, there was an average (SD) of 2.2 (0.7) visits to UC facilities during the study period and an average time to revisit (SD) of 61.3 (55.2) days. CONCLUSIONS: In just eight months, there were >10,000 headache NOS and migraine visits to UC facilities in NYC, with half of revisits occurring within 90 days. Future work should examine headache management in UC facilities.

Predicting 72-hour emergency department revisits.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a predictive model that hospitals or healthcare systems can use to identify patients at high risk of revisiting the ED within 72h so that appropriate interventions can be delivered. METHODS: This study employed multivariate logistic regression in developing the predictive model. The study data were from four Veterans medical centers in Upstate New York; 21,141 patients in total with ED visits were included in the analysis. Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 data were used to predict revisits in FY 2014. The predictive variables were patient demographics, prior year healthcare utilizations, and comorbidities. To avoid overfitting, we validated the model by the split-sample method. The predictive power of the model is measured by c-statistic. RESULTS: In the first model using only patient demographics, the c-statistics were 0.55 (CI: 0.52-0.57) and 0.54 (95% CI: 0.51-0.56) for the development and validation samples, respectively. In the second model with prior year utilization added, the c-statistics were 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68-0.72) for both samples. In the final model where comorbidities were added, the c-statistics were 0.74 (CI: 0.72-0.76) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.75) for the development and validation samples, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing ED revisits not only lowers healthcare cost but also shortens wait time for those who critically need ED care. However, broad intervention for every ED visitor is not feasible given limited resources. In this study, we developed a predictive model that hospitals and healthcare systems can use to identify "frequent flyers" for early interventions to reduce ED revisits.

Septal and turbinate surgery: is overnight essential?

INTRODUCTION: The performance of septoplasty and turbinate surgery in an outpatient basis is an increasingly established practice, although is still a controversial topic. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 227 patients who underwent septoplasty ± inferior and/or middle turbinoplasty. Demographic, clinical, surgical, and anesthetic data were collected. Our primary outcomes were rates of perioperative complications, prolongation of hospital stay (PHS), unexpected hospital revisits (UHR), or readmissions within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: The UHR rate was 4.8 and 6.6% in the first 48 h and 30 postoperative days, respectively. The main reasons were nasal obstruction, self-limited epistaxis, and gastrointestinal intolerance to the prescribed antibiotic. Four patients required PHS due to nausea or vomiting and asthenia. There were no intraoperative complications, readmissions to the operative room, or hospital readmissions after discharge. The addiction of turbinate procedures was not associated with higher risk of complications. Patients with PHS were younger than those discharged as scheduled. There was no association between complications and comorbidities, gender, ASA classification, revision surgery, surgeon's grading, technique of inferior turbinoplasty, type of nasal packing, duration of anesthesia, and operative time. CONCLUSION: The UHR rate of septoplasty performed at our unit is above that recommended for ambulatory procedures, but is within the range previously published and no major complications were seen. Septoplasty and turbinate surgery, including middle turbinate surgery, have a great potential to be undertaken as a day-case procedure, being patient selection the cornerstone of safe and efficient perioperative care.

Primary triage nurses do not divert patients away from the emergency department at times of high in-hospital bed occupancy - a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is frequently described in terms of input- throughput and output. In order to reduce ED input, a concept called primary triage has been introduced in several Swedish EDs. In short, primary triage means that a nurse separately evaluates patients who present in the Emergency Department (ED) and either refers them to primary care or discharges them home, if their complaints are perceived as being of low acuity. The aim of the present study is to elucidate whether high levels of in-hospital bed occupancy are associated with decreased permeability in primary triage. The appropriateness of discharges from primary triage is assessed by 72-h revisits to the ED. METHODS: The study is a retrospective cohort study on administrative data from the ED at a 420-bed hospital in southern Sweden from 2011-2012. In addition to crude comparisons of proportions experiencing each outcome across strata of in-hospital bed occupancy, multivariate models are constructed in order to adjust for age, sex and other factors. RESULTS: A total of 37,129 visits to primary triage were included in the study. 53.4 % of these were admitted to the ED. Among the cases referred to another level of care, 8.8 % made an unplanned revisit to the ED within 72 h. The permeability of primary triage was not decreased at higher levels of in-hospital bed occupancy. Rather, the permeability was slightly higher at occupancy of 100-105 % compared to <95 % (OR 1.09 95 % CI 1.02-1.16). No significant association between in-hospital bed occupancy and the probability of 72-h revisits was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of a decreased permeability of primary triage at times of high in-hospital bed occupancy is reassuring, as the opposite would have implied that patients might be denied entry not only to the hospital, but also to the ED, when in-hospital beds are scarce.

Emergency Department Bouncebacks: Is Lack of Primary Care Access the Primary Cause?

BACKGROUND: National emergency department (ED) bounceback rates within 30 days of previous ED discharge have been found to be as high as 26%. We hypothesize that having a primary care physician (PCP) would prevent bouncebacks to the ED because a patient would have a medical resource for follow-up and continued care. METHODS: We performed a prospective, consecutive, anonymous survey study of adult ED patients at a suburban teaching hospital with 88,000 visits annually, from July 5, 2011 through August 8, 2011. Using chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests, we compared patients with an initial visit to those returning within 30 days of a previous visit to our ED. RESULTS: We collected 1084 surveys. Those in the bounceback group were more likely to have no insurance (10.2% vs. 4.4%) or Medicaid (17.7% vs. 10.8%) and less likely to have a PCP (79% vs. 86%). Of those with a PCP, 9% in both groups had seen their PCP that day, 58% (initial visit) and 49% (bouncebacks) could have been seen that day, and 35% & 36%, respectively, within 1 week. Of those with a PCP, 38% of initial visits and 32% of bouncebacks stated they had already seen their physician at least once. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that patients who bounce back to the ED might have already contacted their PCP. Although insurance status and the lack thereof predict a higher likelihood to bounce back to the ED, many bouncebacks are insured patients with PCPs able to be seen the same day.

Prediction Models Using Decision Tree and Logistic Regression Method for Predicting Hospital Revisits in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

Hospital revisits significantly contribute to financial burden. Therefore, developing strategies to reduce hospital revisits is crucial for alleviating the economic impacts. However, this critical issue among peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients has not been explored in previous research. This single-center retrospective study, conducted at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi branch, included 1373 PD patients who visited the emergency room (ER) between Jan 2002 and May 2018. The objective was to predict hospital revisits, categorized into 72-h ER revisits and 14-day readmissions. Of the 1373 patients, 880 patients visiting the ER without subsequent hospital admission were analyzed to predict 72-h ER revisits. The remaining 493 patients, who were admitted to the hospital, were studied to predict 14-day readmissions. Logistic regression and decision tree methods were employed as prediction models. For the 72-h ER revisit study, 880 PD patients had a revisit rate of 14%. Both logistic regression and decision tree models demonstrated a similar performance. Furthermore, the logistic regression model identified coronary heart disease as an important predictor. For 14-day readmissions, 493 PD patients had a readmission rate of 6.1%. The decision tree model outperformed the logistic model with an area under the curve value of 79.4%. Additionally, a high-risk group was identified with a 36.4% readmission rate, comprising individuals aged 41 to 47 years old with a low alanine transaminase level ≤15 units per liter. In conclusion, we present a study using regression and decision tree models to predict hospital revisits in PD patients, aiding physicians in clinical judgment and improving care.

A geriatric re-evaluation clinic is associated with fewer unplanned returns in the Emergency Department: an observational case-control study.

PURPOSE: The increasing share of older adults is associated with heavier Emergency Health Services utilization. In this context, a significant problem is the rate of unplanned revisits of geriatric patients after discharge from the Emergency Department (ED). We aimed to evaluate whether the referral to a dedicated Geriatric Revaluation Clinic (GRC) after discharge from the ED is associated with fewer early unplanned returns. METHODS: We conducted an observational, retrospective, case-control study comparing patients 65 years or older evaluated in a GRC after an ED visit and a control group of same age subjects accessing the ED during the study period and discharged with one of the ICD-9-CM diagnoses used for the cases, for whom defined post-ED assessment was not arranged. The intervention at the GRC consisted of a comprehensive geriatric evaluation. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted OR for unplanned ED revisits within 30 days from ED discharge using two logistic regression models including the variables with statistically significant differences among study groups at univariate analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 121 eligible patients were evaluated at the GRC and were matched to 242 subjects included in the control group. The median age of the study population was 85 years. The adjusted OR for unplanned return after ED discharge and unplanned hospital admission after ED discharge were 0.44 (CI 0.20-0.89) and 0.52 (CI 95% 0.18-1.74), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of older patients discharged from the ED, the referral to a GRC is associated with fewer early unplanned revisits.

Seventy-Two-Hour Reutilization After Telemedicine Visits in Academic Pediatric Primary Care.

Telemedicine has expanded due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the health care usage after telemedicine visits compared with similar in-person visits is not known. This study compared the 72-hour health care reutilization after telemedicine visits and in-person acute encounters in a pediatric primary care office. A retrospective cohort analysis was performed in a single quaternary pediatric health care system between March 1, 2020, and November 30, 2020. Reutilization information was collected for 72 hours following the index visit and included subsequent encounters within the health care system. The 72-hour reutilization rate for telemedicine encounters was 4.1% compared with 3.9% for in-person acute visits. Of revisits, patients who had a telemedicine visit most often sought additional care at the medical home, and patients with an in-person visit most often sought additional care to the emergency department or urgent care. Telemedicine does not result in higher total health care reutilization.

Predictors of revisits within 1 year by patients after acute COVID-19: the HUBCOVID365 cohort study. / Predictores de revisita en pacientes con infección aguda COVID-19 con seguimiento al año: estudio de cohorte HUBCOVID365.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the frequencies of 3 types of hospital revisits by patients after treatment for COVID-19 in the emergency department. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective observational study of consecutive patients who came to the emergency department in March and April 2020 and were discharged alive with a diagnosis of COVID-19. Baseline and acute episode data were collected and the patients were followed for 1 year. We analyzed variables associated with revisits for any reason, revisits related to COVID-19, and early COVID-19-related revisits (within 30 days). RESULTS: A total of 1352 patients with a mean age of 62.1 years (52.9% male) were studied. A total of 553 revisits were made by 342 patients (25.3%) for any reason; 132 (9.8%) revisited in relation to COVID-19 at least once. Of those, 103 (7.6%) revisited within 30 days (early) and 29 (2.2%) came later. COVID-19-related revisits were associated with thrombotic events (odds ratio [OR], 7.58; 95% CI, 1.75-32.81) and pulmonary fibrosis (OR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.27-19.24); early revisits were inversely associated with follow-up management by a contracted health care support service (OR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.03-0.92). Hospital admission during the initial visit was significantly associated with fewer revisits for any reason or related to COVID-19 at any time. CONCLUSION: Fewer than half the total number of emergency department revisits after initial care for COVID-19 were related to the novel coronavirus infection. Revisits occurred more often in the first 30 days after discharge. Later COVID-19-related revisits were uncommon, but given the large number of patients with this infection, such visits can be expected.

OBJETIVO: Analizar diferentes categorías de revisita (RV) al año en pacientes con infección COVID-19 que consultan en un servicio de urgencias hospitalario (SUH). METODO: Estudio observacional, retrospectivo, que incluyó pacientes consecutivos que consultaron al SUH en los meses de marzo y abril de 2020 con diagnóstico de COVID-19 y fueron dados de alta vivos del hospital. Se recogieron variables basales y del episodio agudo y se realizó un seguimiento al año. Se hicieron tres comparaciones identificando variables asociadas a la RV total, RV relacionada con COVID-19 (RCovid) y RCovid precoz (# 30 días). RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 1.352 pacientes con edad media de 62,1 años y 52,9% varones. En el seguimiento al año hubo 553 RV en 342 (25,3%) pacientes, 132 (9,8%) con al menos una RCovid, 103 (7,6%) precoz y 29 (2,2%) tardía. La RCovid se relacionó con la presencia de fenómenos trombóticos [OR 7,58 (IC 95%: 1,75-32,81)] y la fibrosis pulmonar [OR 4,95 (IC 95%: 1,27-19,24)]; y la RCovid precoz se relacionó inversamente con alta a dispositivo de soporte sanitario [OR 0,18 (IC 95%: 0,03-0,92)]. El ingreso hospitalario en el evento índice disminuyó la RV total y RCovid y las hospitalizaciones derivadas de esta RV de manera significativa a largo plazo. CONCLUSIONES: Menos de la mitad de la RV total tras una infección COVID-19 está relacionada con la infección, y es más frecuente en los primeros 30 días. La RCovid tardía no es frecuente, pero dado el elevado número de pacientes que han sido infectados por COVID-19 se debe tener en cuenta.

Outcomes and predictors of early emergency department discharge among children with acute gastroenteritis and moderate dehydration.

Background: Gastroenteritis is one of the most common diseases that affects children and remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. There is conflicting evidence regarding the effect of rapid intravenous fluid regimen on the clinical outcome of patients with acute gastroenteritis. This study aimed to assess the current practice of intravenous hydration on the clinical outcomes of pediatric patients with acute gastroenteritis and determine the predictive factors for early discharge and emergency department (ED) revisit. Methods: A cohort study was carried out among children aged from 1 month to 14 years who presented to the ED in a tertiary care hospital between September 2015 and September 2017. Children diagnosed with acute gastroenteritis and moderate dehydration who require intravenous hydration were included in the study. The patients were followed up until discharge from ED, admission to the hospital or revisit to the ED. Collected variables were demographics, presenting symptoms, biochemical marker, amount of intravenous fluid (IVF) received and prescription of anti-emetics. Descriptive statistics were summarized as mean, standard deviation for continuous variables and proportions for categorical variables. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors. Results: Out of 284 patients, 148 (52%) were males, 20 (7%) were infants, 80 (28%) were toddlers, 90 (32%) were in preschool, 88 (31%) were in school and 6 (2.1%) were adolescents. No significant difference was observed in the admission rate, discharge within 12 h or less and ED revisits for those who received IVF ≥40 ml/kg as compared to those who received <40 ml/kg. Patients with bicarbonate level closer to normal are more likely to be discharged after 4 h (odds ratio (OR) 1.2 and 95% CI 1.12-1.43). Patients presenting only with vomiting/diarrhoea were less likely to revisit ED (OR 0.33 (95% CI 0.143 - 0.776), while patients with an increase in CO2 level (OR 1.19 and 95% CI 1.0 -1.436) and anion gap (OR 1.29 and 95% CI 1.08-1.54) were more likely to revisit within 1 week post discharge. Conclusion: This study did not show any additional benefits of receiving IVF ≥ 40 ml/kg over 4 h neither in early discharge nor in reducing the ED revisit. CO2 closer to normal was a significant predictor for early discharge in 4 h where the closer level of CO2 and AGAP were associated with an increase in the chance of a revisit to the ED within 1 week after discharge.

Return visits to the emergency department: An analysis using group based curve models.

Stratification modeling in health services is useful to identify differential patient risk groups, or latent classes. Given the frequency and costs, repeated emergency department (ED) may be an appropriate candidate for risk stratification modeling. We applied a method called group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to a sample of 37,416 patients who visited an urban, safety-net ED between 2006 and 2016. Patients had up to 10 ED visits during the study period. Data sources included the hospital's electronic health record (EHR), the state-wide health information exchange system, and area-level social determinants of health factors. Results revealed three distinct trajectory groups. Trajectories with a higher risk of revisit were marked by more patients with behavioral diagnoses, injuries, alcohol & substance abuse, stroke, diabetes, and other factors. The application of advanced computational techniques, like GBTM, provides opportunities for health care organizations to better understand the underlying risks of their large patient populations. Identifying those patients who are likely to be members of high-risk trajectories allows healthcare organizations to stratify patients by level of risk and develop early targeted interventions.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients with an unscheduled return visit within 72 hours to the Paediatric Emergency Centre at a Private Tertiary Referral Hospital in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Patients' unscheduled return visits (URVs) to the paediatric emergency Centre (PEC) contribute to overcrowding and affect health service delivery and overall quality of care. This study assessed the characteristics and outcomes of paediatric patients with URVs (within 72 hours) to the PEC at a private tertiary hospital in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of all URVs within 72 hours among paediatric patients aged ≤15 years between 1 July and 31 December 2018 at the tertiary hospital in Nairobi, Kenya. RESULTS: During the study period, 1.6% (n=172) of patients who visited the PEC returned within 72 hours, with 4.7% revisiting the PEC more than once. Patients' median age was 36 months (interquartile range: 42 months); over half were male (51.7%), 55.8% were ambulatory and 84.3% were insured. In addition, 21% (n=36) had chronic diseases and 7% (n=12) had drug allergies. Respiratory (59.5%) and gastrointestinal (21.5%) tract infections were the most common diagnoses. Compared with the first visit, more patients with URVs were classified as urgent (1.7% vs. 5.2%) and were non-ambulatory (44.2% vs. 49.5%, p=<0.001); 18% of these patients were admitted. Of these 58% were male, 83.9% were aged 0-5 years, 12.9% were classified as urgent, 64.5% had respiratory tract infections and 16.1% had gastrointestinal tract infections. Being admitted was associated with patient acuity (p=0.004), laboratory tests (p=<0.001) and ambulatory status (p=0.041). CONCLUSION: The URV rate is low in our setting. Patients who returned to the PEC within 72 hours tended to be male, under 5 years old and insured. Many were non-urgent cases with diagnoses of respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections. The findings suggest that some URVs were necessary and may have contributed to better care and improved outcomes while others highlight a need for effective patient education and comprehensive initial assessment.

Reducing Fall-related Revisits for Elderly Diabetes Patients in Emergency Departments: A Transition Flow Model.

This paper introduces a transition flow model to study fall-related emergency department (ED) revisits for elderly patients with diabetes. Five diabetes classes are used to classify patients at discharge, within 7-day revisits, and between 8 and 30-day revisits. Analytical formulas to evaluate patient revisiting risks are derived. To reduce revisits, sensitivity analysis is introduced to identify the most critical, i.e., dominant, factors whose changes can lead to the largest reduction in revisits. In addition, a case study at University of Wisconsin (UW) Hospital ED is described to illustrate the applicability of the model.

Modeling Item Revisit Behavior: The Hierarchical Speed-Accuracy-Revisits Model.

This article presents a new approach to the analysis of how students answer tests and how they allocate resources in terms of time on task and revisiting previously answered questions. Previous research has shown that in high-stakes assessments, most test takers do not end the testing session early, but rather spend all of the time they were assigned to take the test. Rather than being an indication of speededness, this was found to be caused by test takers' tendency to revisit previous items even if they already provided answers to all questions. In accordance with this information, the proposed approach models revisit patterns simultaneously with responses and response times to gain a better understanding of the relationship between speed, ability, and revisit tendency. The empirical data analysis revealed that examinees' tendency to revisit items was strongly related to their speed and subgroups of examinees displayed different test-taking behaviors.

Association of limited English proficiency and increased pediatric emergency department revisits.

OBJECTIVE: Limited English proficiency (LEP) is a risk factor for health care inequity and an important focus for improving communication and care quality. This study examines the association between LEP and pediatric emergency department (ED) revisits. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study of patients 0 to 21 years old discharged home after an initial visit from an academic, tertiary care pediatric ED from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018. We calculated rates of ED revisits within 72 h resulting in discharge or hospitalization and assessed rate differences between LEP and English-proficient (EP) patients. Multivariable logistic regression models examined the association between revisits and LEP status controlling for age, race, ethnicity, triage acuity, clinical complexity, and ED arrival time. Sensitivity models including insurance were also conducted. RESULTS: There were 63,601 index visits in the study period; 12,986 (20%) were by patients with LEP. There were 2,387 (3.8%) revisits within 72 h of initial ED visit. Among LEP and EP patient visits, there were 4.53 and 3.55 revisits/100 initial ED visits, respectively (rate difference = 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.58 to 1.37). In the multivariable analyses, LEP was associated with increased odds of revisits resulting in discharge (odds ratio [OR] = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.30) and in hospitalization (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.58). Sensitivity analyses additionally adjusting for insurance status attenuated these results. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that LEP was associated with increased pediatric ED revisits. Improved understanding of language barrier effects on clinical care is important for decreasing health care disparities in the ED.