The plasmid-encoded members of paralogous gene family 52 are dispensable to the enzootic cycle of Borrelia burgdorferi.

Lyme disease, the leading vector-borne disease in the United States and Europe, develops after infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato bacteria. Transmission of the spirochete from the tick vector to a vertebrate host requires global changes in gene expression that are controlled, in part, by the Rrp2/RpoN/RpoS alternative sigma factor cascade. Transcriptional studies defining the B. burgdorferi RpoS regulon have suggested that RpoS activates the transcription of paralogous family 52 (PFam52) genes. In strain B31, PFam52 genes (bbi42, bbk53, and bbq03) encode a set of conserved hypothetical proteins with >89% amino acid identity that are predicted to be surface-localized. Extensive homology among members of paralogous families complicates studies of protein contributions to pathogenicity as the potential for functional redundancy will obfuscate findings. Using a sequential mutagenesis approach, we generated clones expressing a single PFam52 paralog, as well as a strain deficient in all three. The single paralog expressing strains were used to confirm BBI42, BBK53, and BBQ03 surface localization and RpoS regulation. Surprisingly, the PFam52-deficient strain was able to infect mice and complete the enzootic cycle similar to the wild-type parental strain. Indeed, the presence of numerous pseudogenes that contain frameshifts or internal stop codons among the PFam52 genes suggests that they may be subjected to gene loss in B. burgdorferi's reduced genome. Alternatively, the lack of phenotype might reflect the limitations of the experimental mouse infection model.

Francisella tularensis Bone and Joint Infections: United States, 2004-2023.

Tularemia is caused by the highly infectious bacterium Francisella tularensis, which is recognized as a Tier 1 bioterrorism agent. Tularemia has a range of recognized clinical manifestations, but fewer than 20 bone or joint infections from 6 countries have been reported in the literature to date. This series includes 13 cases of F. tularensis septic arthritis or osteomyelitis in the United States during 2004-2023 and describes exposures, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and outcomes for this rare but severe form of tularemia. Clinicians should consider F. tularensis in patients with compatible exposures or a history of joint replacement or immunosuppression.

Delayed Diagnosis of Locally Acquired Lyme Disease, Central North Carolina, USA.

Healthcare providers in North Carolina, USA, have limited experience diagnosing and managing Lyme disease because few cases occur annually statewide. We outline the prolonged diagnostic course for a patient with locally acquired Lyme disease in North Carolina. This case highlights the need for greater awareness and professional education.

Metagenomic Detection of Bacterial Zoonotic Pathogens among Febrile Patients, Tanzania, 2007-20091.

Bacterial zoonoses are established causes of severe febrile illness in East Africa. Within a fever etiology study, we applied a high-throughput 16S rRNA metagenomic assay validated for detecting bacterial zoonotic pathogens. We enrolled febrile patients admitted to 2 referral hospitals in Moshi, Tanzania, during September 2007-April 2009. Among 788 participants, median age was 20 (interquartile range 2-38) years. We performed PCR amplification of V1-V2 variable region 16S rRNA on cell pellet DNA, then metagenomic deep-sequencing and pathogenic taxonomic identification. We detected bacterial zoonotic pathogens in 10 (1.3%) samples: 3 with Rickettsia typhi, 1 R. conorii, 2 Bartonella quintana, 2 pathogenic Leptospira spp., and 1 Coxiella burnetii. One other sample had reads matching a Neoerhlichia spp. previously identified in a patient from South Africa. Our findings indicate that targeted 16S metagenomics can identify bacterial zoonotic pathogens causing severe febrile illness in humans, including potential novel agents.

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Evaluating the long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in China: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne infectious diseases (ZVBs) remains uncertain. This study sought to examine the changes in ZVBs in China during the COVID-19 pandemic and predict their future trends. METHODS: Monthly incidents of seven ZVBs (Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], Rabies, Dengue fever [DF], Human brucellosis [HB], Leptospirosis, Malaria, and Schistosomiasis) were gathered from January 2004 to July 2023. An autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) by incorporating the COVID-19-associated public health intervention variables was developed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of interventions and forecast ZVBs epidemics from August 2023 to December 2025. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were 1,599,647 ZVBs incidents. HFRS and rabies exhibited declining trends, HB showed an upward trajectory, while the others remained relatively stable. The ARFIMA, incorporating a pulse pattern, estimated the average monthly number of changes of - 83 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 353-189) cases, - 3 (95% CI - 33-29) cases, - 468 (95% CI - 1531-597) cases, 2191 (95% CI 1056-3326) cases, 7 (95% CI - 24-38) cases, - 84 (95% CI - 222-55) cases, and - 214 (95% CI - 1036-608) cases for HFRS, rabies, DF, HB, leptospirosis, malaria, and schistosomiasis, respectively, although these changes were not statistically significant besides HB. ARFIMA predicted a decrease in HB cases between August 2023 and December 2025, while indicating a relative plateau for the others. CONCLUSIONS: China's dynamic zero COVID-19 strategy may have exerted a lasting influence on HFRS, rabies, DF, malaria, and schistosomiasis, beyond immediate consequences, but not affect HB and leptospirosis. ARFIMA emerges as a potent tool for intervention analysis, providing valuable insights into the sustained effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, the application of ARFIMA contributes to informed decision-making, the design of effective interventions, and advancements across various fields.

Space-time clusters and co-occurrence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in West Bengal, India.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, a prominent vector borne disease causing over a million annual cases worldwide, predominantly affects vulnerable populations in the least developed regions. Despite their preventable and treatable nature, malaria remains a global public health concern. In the last decade, India has faced a significant decline in malaria morbidity and mortality. As India pledged to eliminate malaria by 2030, this study examined a decade of surveillance data to uncover space-time clustering and seasonal trends of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases in West Bengal. METHODS: Seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess (STL) was applied to detect seasonal trend and anomaly of the time series. Univariate and multivariate space-time cluster analysis of both malaria cases were performed at block level using Kulldorff's space-time scan statistics from April 2011 to March 2021 to detect statistically significant space-time clusters. RESULTS: From the time series decomposition, a clear seasonal pattern is visible for both malaria cases. Statistical analysis indicated considerable high-risk P. vivax clusters, particularly in the northern, central, and lower Gangetic areas. Whereas, P. falciparum was concentrated in the western region with a significant recent transmission towards the lower Gangetic plain. From the multivariate space-time scan statistics, the co-occurrence of both cases were detected with four significant clusters, which signifies the regions experiencing a greater burden of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: Seasonal trends from the time series decomposition analysis show a gradual decline for both P. vivax and P. falciparum cases in West Bengal. The space-time scan statistics identified high-risk blocks for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria and its co-occurrence. Both malaria types exhibit significant spatiotemporal variations over the study area. Identifying emerging high-risk areas of P. falciparum malaria over the Gangetic belt indicates the need for more research for its spatial shifting. Addressing the drivers of malaria transmission in these diverse clusters demands regional cooperation and strategic strategies, crucial steps towards overcoming the final obstacles in malaria eradication.

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis for the selection of sentinel regions in tick-borne disease surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of cost-effective surveillance systems is essential for tracking the emerging risk of tick-borne diseases. In Canada, where Lyme disease is a growing public health concern, a national sentinel surveillance network was designed to follow the epidemiological portrait of this tick-borne disease across the country. The surveillance network consists of sentinel regions, with active drag sampling carried out annually in all regions to assess the density of Ixodes spp. ticks and prevalence of various tick-borne pathogens in the tick population. The aim of the present study was to prioritize sentinel regions by integrating different spatial criteria relevant to the surveillance goals. METHODS: We used spatially-explicit multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) to map priority areas for surveillance across Canada, and to evaluate different scenarios using sensitivity analyses. Results were shared with stakeholders to support their decision making for the selection of priority areas to survey during active surveillance activities. RESULTS: Weights attributed to criteria by decision-makers were overall consistent. Sensitivity analyses showed that the population criterion had the most impact on rankings. Thirty-seven sentinel regions were identified across Canada using this systematic and transparent approach. CONCLUSION: This novel application of spatial MCDA to surveillance network design favors inclusivity of nationwide partners. We propose that such an approach can support the standardized planning of spatial design of sentinel surveillance not only for vector-borne disease BDs, but more broadly for infectious disease surveillance where spatial design is an important component.

Determinants of intended prevention behaviour against mosquitoes and mosquito-borne viruses in the Netherlands and Spain using the MosquitoWise survey: cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Recently, Europe has seen an emergence of mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs). Understanding citizens' perceptions of and behaviours towards mosquitoes and MBVs is crucial to reduce disease risk. We investigated and compared perceptions, knowledge, and determinants of citizens' behavioural intentions related to mosquitoes and MBVs in the Netherlands and Spain, to help improve public health interventions. METHODS: Using the validated MosquitoWise survey, data was collected through participant panels in Spain (N = 475) and the Netherlands (N = 438). Health Belief Model scores measuring behavioural intent, knowledge, and information scores were calculated. Confidence Interval-Based Estimation of Relevance was used, together with potential for change indexes, to identify promising determinants for improving prevention measure use. RESULTS: Spanish participants' responses showed slightly higher intent to use prevention measures compared to those of Dutch participants (29.1 and 28.2, respectively, p 0.03). Most participants in Spain (92.2%) and the Netherlands (91.8%) indicated they used at least one prevention measure, but differences were observed in which types they used. More Spanish participants indicated to have received information on mosquitoes and MBVs compared to Dutch participants. Spanish participants preferred health professional information sources, while Dutch participants favoured government websites. Determinants for intent to use prevention measures included "Knowledge", "Reminders to Use Prevention Measures", and "Information" in the Netherlands and Spain. Determinants for repellent use included "Perceived Benefits" and "Cues to Action", with "Perceived Benefits" having a high potential for behavioural change in both countries. "Self-Efficacy" and "Knowledge" were determinants in both countries for breeding site removal. CONCLUSION: This study found differences in knowledge between the Netherlands and Spain but similarities in determinants for intent to use prevention measures, intent to use repellents and intent to remove mosquito breeding sites. Identified determinants can be the focus for future public health interventions to reduce MBV risks.

Green cities and vector-borne diseases: emerging concerns and opportunities.

Aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, nature-based solutions such as urban greening e.g. public gardens, urban forests, parks and street trees, which aim to protect, sustainably manage or restore an ecosystem, have emerged as a promising tool for improving the health and well-being of an ever-increasing urban population. While urban greening efforts have undeniable benefits for human health and the biological communities inhabiting these green zones, disease vector populations may also be affected, possibly promoting greater pathogen transmission and the emergence of infectious diseases such as dengue, West Nile fever, malaria, leishmaniosis and tick-borne diseases. Evidence for the impact of urban green areas on vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission is scarce. Furthermore, because of vast disparities between cities, variation in green landscapes and differing scales of observation, findings are often contradictory; this calls for careful assessment of how urban greening affects VBD risk. Improved understanding of the effect of urban greening on VBDs would support planning, monitoring and management of green spaces in cities to sustainably mitigate VBD risks for surrounding urban populations.

Vector-borne diseases imported to Poland between 2021 and 2023.

Introduction: The aim of the study was to monitor the occurrence of selected vector-borne diseases in anaemic dogs arriving in or returning to Poland from areas endemic for these diseases. Material and Methods: The study involved 497 dogs, of which 184 came to Poland from Ukraine with their owners fleeing the war. Other animals returned to the country from holidays spent in Croatia (n = 96), Turkey (n = 79), Italy (n = 48), Bulgaria (n = 42), Albania (n = 36) and Romania (n = 12). Molecular biology methods were used for detection of pathogens transmitted by the vectors. Results: Molecular tests revealed the presence of vector-borne pathogens in 79 dogs. The most commonly diagnosed infection was caused by Babesia canis (27 dogs), followed by infections with Anaplasma phagocytophilum (in 20 dogs), Mycoplasma haemocanis (15 dogs), Bartonella henselae (7 dogs), Ehrlichia canis (4 dogs), Hepatozoon canis (3 dogs), Babesia gibsoni (2 dogs) and Leishmania infantum (1 dog). Most of the sick dogs (n = 39) came from Ukraine. In dogs spending holidays with their owners outside Poland, vector-borne diseases were most often detected after their return from Turkey (n = 16), and next in descending order from Croatia (n = 7), Italy (n = 6), Albania (n = 4), Bulgaria (n = 4) and Romania (n = 3). Conclusion: The wider migration crisis and increasingly frequent trips of owners with their dogs to areas of endemic infectious and parasitic diseases observed in recent years are the main risk factors for the occurrence of these diseases in Poland. Therefore, constant monitoring of vector-borne diseases, especially in dogs returning from holidays and arriving in Poland from abroad, seems to be crucial for their early detection and introduction of appropriate therapy.

Artificial Feeding Systems for Vector-Borne Disease Studies.

This review examines the advancements and methodologies of artificial feeding systems for the study of vector-borne diseases, offering a critical assessment of their development, advantages, and limitations relative to traditional live host models. It underscores the ethical considerations and practical benefits of such systems, including minimizing the use of live animals and enhancing experimental consistency. Various artificial feeding techniques are detailed, including membrane feeding, capillary feeding, and the utilization of engineered biocompatible materials, with their respective applications, efficacy, and the challenges encountered with their use also being outlined. This review also forecasts the integration of cutting-edge technologies like biomimicry, microfluidics, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence to refine and expand the capabilities of artificial feeding systems. These innovations aim to more accurately simulate natural feeding conditions, thereby improving the reliability of studies on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. This comprehensive review serves as a foundational reference for researchers in the field, proposing a forward-looking perspective on the potential of artificial feeding systems to revolutionize vector-borne disease research.

Structural and functional comparisons of salivary α-glucosidases from the mosquito vectors Aedes aegypti, Anopheles gambiae, and Culex quinquefasciatus.

Mosquito vectors of medical importance both blood and sugar feed, and their saliva contains bioactive molecules that aid in both processes. Although it has been shown that the salivary glands of several mosquito species exhibit α-glucosidase activities, the specific enzymes responsible for sugar digestion remain understudied. We therefore expressed and purified three recombinant salivary α-glucosidases from the mosquito vectors Aedes aegypti, Anopheles gambiae, and Culex quinquefasciatus and compared their functions and structures. We found that all three enzymes were expressed in the salivary glands of their respective vectors and were secreted into the saliva. The proteins, as well as mosquito salivary gland extracts, exhibited α-glucosidase activity, and the recombinant enzymes displayed preference for sucrose compared to p-nitrophenyl-α-D-glucopyranoside. Finally, we solved the crystal structure of the Ae. aegypti α-glucosidase bound to two calcium ions at a 2.3 Ångstrom resolution. Molecular docking suggested that the Ae. aegypti α-glucosidase preferred di- or polysaccharides compared to monosaccharides, consistent with enzymatic activity assays. Comparing structural models between the three species revealed a high degree of similarity, suggesting similar functional properties. We conclude that the α-glucosidases studied herein are important enzymes for sugar digestion in three mosquito species.

A Qualitative Analysis of the Perceptions of Stakeholders Involved in Vector Control and Vector-Borne Disease Research and Surveillance in Orinoquia, Colombia.

Colombia has a tropical climate and environmental conditions that favour the circulation of most of the known vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Protocols have been established and implemented to address the threats of these diseases, but they are for country-wide use and do not take into consideration the nuances of the different environments of the country. Almost the entire population is vulnerable to infection with one or more VBD. This study aims to characterise the perceptions and experiences of stakeholders involved in vector control and VBDs in the Orinoquia region in Colombia. Two panel discussions, and 12 semi-structured interviews, were conducted. Experts from the Colombian National Health Institute (INS), health secretaries from Meta, Guaviare and Vichada Departments, academic researchers, and individuals from private vector control companies participated. All sessions were recorded, transcribed, and translated, and then subject to thematic analysis. Three major themes emerged: involvement, limitations, and recommendations. Results showed that participants are engaged in vector surveillance activities, education, and vector control research. Participants focused on problems of disjointed efforts towards VBD control between health secretaries and the health ministry, as well as societal issues, such as socioeconomic, cultural, and political issues, which became the rationale for the lack of vector control resources. Responses in the panel discussions and interviews overlapped in opinions, and suggested that vector control could be improved through better communication between vector control bodies, strengthened engagement with vulnerable communities, more collaborative actions, and a more balanced distribution of resources.

Controlling arbovirus infection: high-throughput transcriptome and proteome insights.

Arboviruses pose a significant threat to public health globally, demanding innovative approaches for their control. For this, a better understanding of the complex web of interactions established in arbovirus-infected mosquitoes is fundamental. High-throughput analyses allow a genome-wide view of arbovirus-induced alterations at different gene expression levels. This review provides a comprehensive perspective into the current literature in transcriptome and proteome landscapes in mosquitoes infected with arboviruses. It also proposes a coordinated research effort to define the critical nodes that determine arbovirus infection and transmission.

Domestic (re)infestation risk with the main vector Triatoma infestans increases with surrounding green vegetation and social vulnerability in the Argentine Chaco.

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is still a public health problem in Latin America and in the Southern Cone countries, where Triatoma infestans is the main vector. We evaluated the relationships among the density of green vegetation around rural houses, sociodemographic characteristics, and domestic (re)infestation with T. infestans while accounting for their spatial dependence in the municipality of Pampa del Indio between 2007 and 2016. METHODS: The study comprised sociodemographic and ecological variables from 734 rural houses with no missing data. Green vegetation density surrounding houses was estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We used a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression composed of fixed effects and spatial random effects to estimate domestic infestation risk and quantile regressions to evaluate the association between surrounding NDVI and selected sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: Qom ethnicity and the number of poultry were negatively associated with surrounding NDVI, whereas overcrowding was positively associated with surrounding NDVI. Hierarchical Bayesian models identified that domestic infestation was positively associated with surrounding NDVI, suitable walls for triatomines, and overcrowding over both intervention periods. Preintervention domestic infestation also was positively associated with Qom ethnicity. Models with spatial random effects performed better than models without spatial effects. The former identified geographic areas with a domestic infestation risk not accounted for by fixed-effect variables. CONCLUSIONS: Domestic infestation with T. infestans was associated with the density of green vegetation surrounding rural houses and social vulnerability over a decade of sustained vector control interventions. High density of green vegetation surrounding rural houses was associated with households with more vulnerable social conditions. Evaluation of domestic infestation risk should simultaneously consider social, landscape and spatial effects to control for their mutual dependency. Hierarchical Bayesian models provided a proficient methodology to identify areas for targeted triatomine and disease surveillance and control.

Assessing Survival of Transgenic Bacteria, Serratia AS1 and Enterobacter cloacae, in Sugar Bait, White Saxaul Plant (Haloxylon persicum) and Rodent Barrow's Soil, A Contained-Field Study for Paratransgenesis Approach.

Background: The viability and persistence of engineered bacterium candidates in field conditions is one of the considerable challenges in the paratransgenesis approach to fighting vector-borne diseases. Methods: In this study two engineered bacterium candidates to produce paratransgenic sand flies, Serratia AS1 and Enterobacter cloacae expressing m-Cherry fluorescent were applied on the leaves of the white saxaul plant (Haloxylon persicum), sugar bait, and rodent burrow soil and their persistent time was tested in desert condition, Matin Abad County, Isfahan, August 2022. A PBS suspension of 109 cells/ml was used for sugar bait, spraying on plant leaves (∼10 cm2) and 10 cm2 of rodent burrow soil. Sand fly samples were taken daily and were plated on LB Agar and the fluorescent cells were counted after 24 hours. Results: Time course in general caused a decrease in the number of bacteria for both strains. The two strains were persistent in sugar bait and on plant leaves for four days and on soil for two days. Although there were slight differences between the number of the bacteria in sugar baits, which was not significant (P< 0.05). The number of E. cloacae surviving on plant and in soil were significantly (P< 0.0001 and P= 0.046) higher than Serratia AS1. Conclusion: This study shows that plants or sugar bait are useful routes for delivery of the transformed bacteria for the paratransgenesis approach, although, the bacteria ought to be sprayed on plants or sugar baits should be replaced with new ones in four days intervals.

Haematochemical Profile of Healthy Dogs Seropositive for Single or Multiple Vector-Borne Pathogens.

BACKGROUND: the present study aimed to investigate the immunological response to common vector-borne pathogens and to evaluate their impact on haematochemical parameters in owned dogs. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from 400 clinically healthy dogs living in an endemic area (Sardinia Island, Italy). All dogs were serologically tested for VBDs and divided into groups based on their negative (Neg) or positive response towards Ehrlichia (Ehrl), Rickettsia (Rick), Leishmania (Leish), Borrelia (Borr), Anaplasma (Anapl), and Bartonella (Barto). A Kruskall-Wallis's test, followed by Dunn's post hoc comparison test, was applied to determine the statistical effect of negativity and single or multiple positivity on the studied parameters. RESULTS: the group of dogs simultaneously presenting antibodies towards Leishmania, Ehrlichia, and Rickettsia showed higher values of total proteins, globulins, creatine phosphokinase, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and amylase than dogs that tested negative or dogs with antibodies toward a single pathogen investigated herein. CONCLUSIONS: Our results seem to suggest that exposure to more vector-borne pathogens could lead to greater liver function impairment and a greater inflammatory state. Further investigations are needed in order to better clarify how co-infections affect haematochemical patterns in dogs living in endemic areas of VBDs.

Meteorological, demographic, and environmental risk factors for Leishmania infantum in wildlife.

Leishmania infantum is an important and neglected vector-borne zoonotic protozoa endemic in the Mediterranean basin. Several wild and domestic mammals can contribute to maintaining its circulation but their importance as effective reservoirs is still under discussion and varies depending on local ecological communities. By combining environmental, climatic, and individual information, this study assessed the presence of L. infantum DNA in a set of wild species from Northwestern Italy and the potential ecological factors related to the risk of infection. From 2020 to 2022, 304 free-ranging wild animals were analyzed for the detection of L. infantum DNA in the spleen and popliteal lymph node (when available). The prevalence obtained in wild boar (Sus scrofa) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) was higher than those previously reported (% ± confidence interval 95%; 42.9 ± 18.4% and 27 ± 6.6% in wild boar and roe deer, respectively), and this is the first report of this parasite infecting the coypu Myocastor coypus (60 ± 34.7%). L. infantum DNA was detected in all the seasons including those free of adult sandflies and seasonal differences were minimal, suggesting a long course of infection. The models revealed that animals from rainy areas with higher greenness during the summer, highly populated by humans and predominantly covered by water surfaces had a higher risk of L. infantum. This study contributes to confirming previous findings on the existence of a sylvatic cycle for L. infantum in certain regions of Italy, as well as on the potential epidemiological role of roe deer for this parasite given the elevated prevalence found.

Modeling the Regional Distribution of International Travelers in Spain to Estimate Imported Cases of Dengue and Malaria: Statistical Inference and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of disease importation through international travel is paramount for effective public health interventions and global disease surveillance. While global airline network data have been used to assist in outbreak prevention and effective preparedness, accurately estimating how these imported cases disseminate locally in receiving countries remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe and understand the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria upon arrival in Spain via air travel. METHODS: We have proposed a method to describe the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria based on the computation of the "travelers' index" from readily available socioeconomic data. We combined indicators representing the main drivers for international travel, including tourism, economy, and visits to friends and relatives, to measure the relative appeal of each region in the importing country for travelers. We validated the resulting estimates by comparing them with the reported cases of malaria and dengue in Spain from 2015 to 2019. We also assessed which motivation provided more accurate estimates for imported cases of both diseases. RESULTS: The estimates provided by the best fitted model showed high correlation with notified cases of malaria (0.94) and dengue (0.87), with economic motivation being the most relevant for imported cases of malaria and visits to friends and relatives being the most relevant for imported cases of dengue. CONCLUSIONS: Factual descriptions of the local movement of international travelers may substantially enhance the design of cost-effective prevention policies and control strategies, and essentially contribute to decision-support systems. Our approach contributes in this direction by providing a reliable estimate of the number of imported cases of nonendemic diseases, which could be generalized to other applications. Realistic risk assessments will be obtained by combining this regional predictor with the observed local distribution of vectors.