The Chinese pine genome and methylome unveil key features of conifer evolution.

Conifers dominate the world's forest ecosystems and are the most widely planted tree species. Their giant and complex genomes present great challenges for assembling a complete reference genome for evolutionary and genomic studies. We present a 25.4-Gb chromosome-level assembly of Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) and revealed that its genome size is mostly attributable to huge intergenic regions and long introns with high transposable element (TE) content. Large genes with long introns exhibited higher expressions levels. Despite a lack of recent whole-genome duplication, 91.2% of genes were duplicated through dispersed duplication, and expanded gene families are mainly related to stress responses, which may underpin conifers' adaptation, particularly in cold and/or arid conditions. The reproductive regulation network is distinct compared with angiosperms. Slow removal of TEs with high-level methylation may have contributed to genomic expansion. This study provides insights into conifer evolution and resources for advancing research on conifer adaptation and development.

Climate change, human health, and resilience in the Holocene.

Climate change is an indisputable threat to human health, especially for societies already confronted with rising social inequality, political and economic uncertainty, and a cascade of concurrent environmental challenges. Archaeological data about past climate and environment provide an important source of evidence about the potential challenges humans face and the long-term outcomes of alternative short-term adaptive strategies. Evidence from well-dated archaeological human skeletons and mummified remains speaks directly to patterns of human health over time through changing circumstances. Here, we describe variation in human epidemiological patterns in the context of past rapid climate change (RCC) events and other periods of past environmental change. Case studies confirm that human communities responded to environmental changes in diverse ways depending on historical, sociocultural, and biological contingencies. Certain factors, such as social inequality and disproportionate access to resources in large, complex societies may influence the probability of major sociopolitical disruptions and reorganizations-commonly known as "collapse." This survey of Holocene human-environmental relations demonstrates how flexibility, variation, and maintenance of Indigenous knowledge can be mitigating factors in the face of environmental challenges. Although contemporary climate change is more rapid and of greater magnitude than the RCC events and other environmental changes we discuss here, these lessons from the past provide clarity about potential priorities for equitable, sustainable development and the constraints of modernity we must address.

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases.

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas-induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models' responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios-including some in which recent historical trends continue-even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Age-dependent seasonal growth cessation in Populus.

In temperate and boreal regions, perennial plants adapt their annual growth cycle to the change of seasons. In natural forests, juvenile seedlings usually display longer growth seasons compared to adult trees to ensure their establishment and survival under canopy shade. However, how trees adjust their annual growth according to their age is not known. In this study, we show that age-dependent seasonal growth cessation is genetically controlled and found that the miR156-SPL3/5 module, a key regulon of vegetative phase change (VPC), also triggers age-dependent growth cessation in Populus trees. We show that miR156 promotes shoot elongation during vegetative growth, and its targets SPL3/5s function in the same pathway but as repressors. We find that the miR156-SPL3/5s regulon controls growth cessation in both leaves and shoot apices and through multiple pathways, but with a different mechanism compared to how the miR156-SPL regulon controls VPC in annual plants. Taken together, our results reveal an age-dependent genetic network in mediating seasonal growth cessation, a key phenological process in the climate adaptation of perennial trees.

Assessing the climate adaptive potential of imported Chili in comparison with local cultivars through germination performance analysis.

BACKGROUND: The study offers insightful information about the adaptability of local and imported Chili cultivars. This experiment examines how three different chili cultivars Tanjung, Unpad, and Osaka perform in the germination and early growth phases while considering a wide range of environmental conditions. Research conducted in Jatinangor, Sumedang Regency, Indonesia, highlights the differences between cultivars and the varied possibilities for adaptability each variation possesses. RESULTS: Among them, Tanjung stands out as the most promising cultivar; its robust performance is demonstrated by its high germination index 91.7. Notable features of Osaka include the highest biomass output (1.429 g), the best water usage efficiency (WUE) at 0.015 g/liter, and the best distribution uniformity (91.2%) and application efficiency (73.6%) under different irrigation conditions. Tanjung's competitiveness is further evidenced by the fact that it trails Osaka closely on several metrics. Lower performance across criteria for Unpad suggests possible issues with flexibility. CONCLUSION: The value of this information becomes apparent when it comes to well-informed breeding programs and cultivation techniques, especially considering uncertain climate patterns and global climate change. This research contributes significantly to the body of knowledge, enabling well-informed choices for environmentally dynamic, sustainable chili farming.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range.

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life-history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1200 km, we found limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations. In particular, the upper thermal limits of all life-history traits varied by less than 3°C across the species range and, for most traits, did not differ significantly between populations. For one life-history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found that maximum environmental temperatures across most of the species' range already regularly exceed the highest upper thermal limits estimated under constant temperatures. This result suggests that strategies for coping with and/or avoiding thermal extremes are likely key components of current and future mosquito thermal tolerance.

Weak local adaptation to drought in seedlings of a widespread conifer.

Tree seedlings from populations native to drier regions are often assumed to be more drought tolerant than those from wetter provenances. However, intraspecific variation in drought tolerance has not been well-characterized despite being critical for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and for predicting the effects of drought on forests. We used a large-scale common garden drought-to-death experiment to assess range-wide variation in drought tolerance, measured by decline of photosynthetic efficiency, growth, and plastic responses to extreme summer drought in seedlings of 73 natural populations of the two main varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and var. glauca). Local adaptation to drought was weak in var. glauca and nearly absent in menziesii. Var. glauca showed higher tolerance to drought but slower growth than var. menziesii. Clinal variation in drought tolerance and growth species-wide was mainly associated with temperature rather than precipitation. A higher degree of plasticity for growth was observed in var. menziesii in response to extreme drought. Genetic variation for drought tolerance in seedlings within varieties is maintained primarily within populations. Selective breeding within populations may facilitate adaptation to drought more than assisted gene flow.

Climate-Smart Invasive Species Management for 21st Century Global Change Challenges.

Addressing the global challenges of climate change and biotic invasions requires understanding their interactions and implications for natural resource management. To facilitate and support invasive species management in a changing climate, we review how climate change and invasions interact to impact the planning, action, and outcomes of invasive species management. Climate change is facilitating the introduction of new potential invasive species and altering pathways of introduction and spread, with implications for which species natural resource managers need to assess, monitor, and target. Climate-driven shifts in invasive species phenology require more flexible management timelines. Climate change may reduce the efficacy and feasibility of current treatment methods and make native ecosystems more vulnerable to invasion. Additionally, disturbance caused by extreme climate events can compound the spread and impacts of biological invasions, making invasive species management a necessary part of extreme event preparation and response planning. As a solution to these challenges, we propose climate-smart invasive species management, which we define as the approaches that managers and decision-makers can take to address the interactive effects of climate change and invasions. Climate-smart invasive species management includes considering potential shifts in species ranges, abundances, and impacts to inform monitoring, treatment, and policies to prevent new invasive species. Climate-smart management may also involve adjusting the timing and type of treatment to maintain efficacy, promoting resilient ecosystems through climate-smart restoration, and considering the effects of climate change when setting management goals. Explicitly considering the interactions of climate change and biological invasions within organizational decision-making and policy can lead to more effective management and promote more resilient landscapes.

Phenological Adaptation Is Insufficient to Offset Climate Change-Induced Yield Losses in US Hybrid Maize.

Climate change is projected to decrease maize yields due to warmer temperatures and their consequences. Studies using crop growth models (CGMs), however, have predicted that, through a combination of alterations to planting date, flowering time, and maturity, these yield losses can be mitigated or even reversed. Here, we examine three assumptions of such studies: (1) that climate has driven historical phenological trends, (2) that CGM ensembles provide unbiased estimates of yields under high temperatures, and (3) that the effects of temperature on yields are an emergent property of interactions between phenology and environment. We used data on maize phenology from the United States Department of Agriculture, a statistical model of maize hybrid heat tolerance derived from 80 years of public yield trial records across four US states, and outputs of an ensemble of CMIP6 climate models. While planting dates have advanced historically, we found a trend toward later planting dates after 2005 and no trend for silking or maturity, shifting more time into the reproductive period. We then projected maize yields using the historical model and crop calendars devised using three previously proposed adaptation strategies. In contrast to studies using CGMs, our statistical yield model projected severe yield losses under all three strategies. Finally, we projected maize yields accounting for historical genetic variability for heat tolerance, discovering that it was insufficient to overcome the negative effects of projected warming. These projections are driven by greater heat stress exposure under all crop calendars and climate scenarios. Combined with analysis of the internal sensitivities of CGMs to temperature, our results suggest that current projections do not adequately account for the effects of increasing temperatures on maize yields. Climate adaptation in the US Midwest must utilize a richer set of strategies than phenological adaptation, including improvements to heat tolerance and crop diversification.

Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change.

Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio-economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50-m resolution across Sweden (55-68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading-edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north-west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high-resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change.

Macro- and micro-geographic genetic variation in early fitness traits in populations of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Assessing adaptive genetic variation and its spatial distribution is crucial to conserve forest genetic resources and manage species' adaptive potential. Macro-environmental gradients commonly exert divergent selective pressures that enhance adaptive genetic divergence among populations. Steep micro-environmental variation might also result in adaptive divergence at finer spatial scales, even under high gene flow, but it is unclear how often this is the case. Here, we assess genetic variation in early fitness traits among distant and nearby maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) populations, to investigate climatic factors associated with trait divergence, and to examine trait integration during seedling establishment. METHODS: Open pollinated seeds were collected from seven population pairs across the European species distribution, with paired populations spatially close (between <1 km up to 21 km) but environmentally divergent. Seeds were sown in semi-natural conditions at three environmentally contrasting sites, where we monitored seedling emergence, growth and survival. KEY RESULTS: At large spatial scales, we found significant genetic divergence among populations in all studied traits, with certain traits exhibiting association with temperature and precipitation gradients. Significant trait divergence was also detected between pairs of nearby populations. Besides, we found consistent trait correlations across experimental sites, notably heavier seeds and earlier seedling emergence were both associated with higher seedling survival and fitness over two years in all experimental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: We identified mean annual temperature and precipitation seasonality as potential drivers of P. pinaster population divergence in the studied early-life traits. Populations genetically diverge also at local spatial scales, potentially suggesting that divergent natural selection can override gene flow along local-scale ecological gradients. These results suggest the species exhibits substantial adaptive potential that has allowed it to survive and evolve under contrasting environmental conditions.

Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage.

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18-years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change.

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

La viabilidad dinámica de resistir (R), aceptar (A) o dirigir (D) el cambio ecológico Resumen Las transformaciones ecológicas ocurren por el cambio climático, lo que representa un reto para los enfoques tradicionales para decidir en torno a la gestión de tierras. El marco resistir­aceptar­dirigir (RAD) ayuda a los gestores a considerar cómo responder a este reto. Analizamos cómo la viabilidad de las opciones para resistir, aceptar y dirigir cambia de manera compleja y dinámica con el tiempo. Consideramos cuatro tipos distintos de viabilidad: regulatoria, económica, pública y de organización. Nuestro comentario está basado en la revisión bibliográfica y los ejemplos que existen, pero por necesidad tiene elementos especulativos ya que la evidencia empírica sobre esta estrategia emergente de gestión es escasa. Esperamos que las estrategias de resistir se vuelvan menos viables con el tiempo conforme los gestores encuentren situaciones en las que resistir no es viable de forma ecológica, económica, pública o por regulación. Al igual esperamos que cada vez más los marcos regulatorios permitan su uso, si el costo disminuye, y si el público los acepta, los gestores verán cada vez más viables las estrategias de aceptar y dirigir que las que utilizan actualmente. La exploración de varios tipos de viabilidad a lo largo del tiempo permite considerar las trayectorias sociales y ecológicas del cambio en conjunto. Nuestra teoría sugiere que profundizar en el horizonte temporal de las decisiones permite que se analice con cuidado sobre cuando se deben adoptar enfoques diferentes y cómo combinarlos con el tiempo.

Climate change influences on the streamflow and sediment supply to the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand.

This study investigates the effects of climate change on the sediment loads of the Ping and Wang River basins and their contribution to the sediment dynamics of the lower Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The various climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios are employed to project sediment loads in future. The findings indicate a significant increase in river flow approximately 20% in the Ping River (PR) and 35% in the Wang River (WR) by the mid-21st century and continuing into the distant future. Consequently, this is expected to result in sediment loads up to 0.33 × 106 t/y in the PR and 0.28 × 106 t/y in the WR. This escalation is particularly notable under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which assumes higher greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the research provides insights into the potential positive implications for the Chao Phraya Delta's coastal management. Without further damming in the Ping and Wang River basins, the anticipated rise in sediment supply could aid in mitigating the adverse effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise, which have historically caused extensive shoreline retreat in the delta region, particularly around Bangkok Metropolis. The paper concludes that proactive adaptation strategies are required to manage the expected changes in the hydrological and sediment regimes to protect vulnerable coastal zones and ensure the sustainable management of the Chao Phraya River Basin in the face of climate change.

The association between gender equality and climate adaptation across the globe.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change has a disproportionate impact on women in comparison to men, and women have a key role to play in climate adaptation. However, evidence is lacking on how gender inequalities may be associated with climate vulnerability and ability to respond at country level. METHODS: This ecological study investigated the association between climate adaptation, measured by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Index (ND-GAIN), and gender equality, measured by the Global Gender Gap Index (GGGI) developed by the World Economic Forum and the Gender Inequality Index (GII) developed by the United Nations. Simple linear regression was used to estimate the associations between the indices and their subdomains for 146 countries. RESULTS: There was an approximately linear association between the GGGI and climate adaptation. Each 1% increase in gender equality was associated with a 0.6% increase in the ND-GAIN score (the slope was 0.59, with a 95% confidence interval [0.33 to 0.84]). This was driven by a negative association between gender equality and vulnerability (-0.41 [-0.62 to -0.20]), and a positive association between gender equality and readiness (0.77 [0.44 to 1.10]). The strongest associations between gender equality and climate adaptation were observed for the education domain of the GGGI. There was a strong negative linear association between the GII and climate adaptation, which explained most (86%) of the between-country variation in climate adaptation. Each 1% increase in gender inequality was associated with a 0.5% decrease in the ND-GAIN score (-0.54 [-0.57 to -0.50]). The association between gender inequality and readiness was stronger than the association with vulnerability (0.41 [0.37 to 0.44] for vulnerability versus - 0.67 [-0.72 to -0.61] for readiness). CONCLUSIONS: Gender inequality, measured broadly across different domains of life, is associated with climate adaptation at country level, both in terms of vulnerability to impact and readiness to respond.

Conceptualizing social risk in relation to climate change and assisted ecosystem adaptation.

Realizing positive social and environmental outcomes from assisted ecosystem adaptation requires the management of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous risks. Using assisted coral reef adaptation as a case study, this article presents a conceptual framework that defines social impacts as the physical and cognitive consequences for people of planned intervention and social risks as potential impacts transformed into objects of management through assessment and governance. Reflecting on its multiple uses in the literature, we consider "social risk" in relation to risks to individuals and communities, risks to First Peoples, risks to businesses or project implementation, possibilities for amplified social vulnerability, and risk perceptions. Although much of this article is devoted to bringing clarity to the different ways in which social risk manifests and to the multiple characters of risk and uncertainty, it is apparent that risk governance itself must be an inherently integrative and social process.

Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk.

Climate change and natural hazard risk assessments often overlook indirect impacts, leading to a limited understanding of the full extent of risk and the disparities in its distribution across populations. This study investigates distributional justice in natural hazard impacts, exploring its critical implications for environmental justice, equity, and resilience in adaptation planning. We employ high-resolution spatial risk assessment and origin-destination routing to analyze coastal flooding and sea-level rise scenarios in Aotearoa New Zealand. This approach allows the assessment of both direct impacts (property exposure) and indirect impacts (physical isolation from key amenities) on residents. Indirect impacts, such as isolation and reduced access to resources, have significant adverse effects on well-being, social cohesion, and community resilience. Including indirect impacts in risk assessments dramatically increases the overall population burden, while revealing complex effects on existing inequalities. Our analysis reveals that including indirect impacts increases the overall population burden, but the effect on inequalities varies. These inequalities can be exacerbated or attenuated depending on scale and location, underscoring the need for decision-makers to identify these nuanced distributions and apply context-specific frameworks when determining equitable outcomes. Our findings uncover a substantial number of previously invisible at-risk residents-from 61,000 to 217,000 nationally in a present-day event-and expose a shift in impact distribution toward underserved communities. As indirect risks exacerbate disparities and impede climate adaptation efforts, adopting an inclusive approach that accounts for both direct and indirect risks and their [un]equal distribution is imperative for effective and equitable decision-making.

Climate risk and green total factor productivity in agriculture: The moderating role of climate policy uncertainty.

In light of the escalating global warming and the escalating frequency of extreme weather events, the agricultural sector, being a fundamental and pivotal industry worldwide, is encountering substantial challenges due to climate change. Using Chinese provincial panel data for 2000-2021, this paper utilizes a two-way fixed-effect model to investigate the impact of Climate Risk (CR) on green total factor productivity in agriculture (AGTFP), with China's climate policy uncertainty (CPU) being introduced as a moderating variable within the research framework to scrutinize its influence in this context. The findings reveal a noteworthy adverse effect of CR on AGTFP, further exacerbated by CPU. Heterogeneity analysis results show that there is a clear regional variation in the effect of CR on AGTFP across different Chinese regions, with CR significantly inhibiting AGTFP development in the northern regions and provinces in major grain producing regions. Consequently, there is a pressing necessity to bolster the establishment of climate change monitoring infrastructures, devise tailored climate adaptation strategies at a regional level, and enhance the clarity and predictability of climate policies to fortify the resilience and sustainability of agricultural production systems.

Mental models for inclusive, socially-just disaster planning: a multi-community study in Saint Martin after Hurricane Irma.

Local perspectives provide different insights into disaster planning and response as compared to those of experts. Eliciting them, however, can be challenging, particularly for marginalised groups whose viewpoints have historically been excluded from planning processes. Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) provides a semi-quantitative approach to representing the collective understanding or 'mental models' of diverse individuals and communities. This study involved 23 FCM interviews across three neighbourhoods of Saint Martin to comprehend: (i) how individuals' mental models of Hurricane Irma (2017) differ based on their context; (ii) how aligned mental models are with policy and planning documents; and (iii) the implications for the inclusiveness and representativeness of disaster response policies. It found that the residents of different neighbourhoods provided unique insights into the factors driving the social-ecological system, and that official policies aligned closely with priorities. The paper argues that the inclusion of the perspectives of different groups in disaster recovery is essential for an equitable process.