The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change.

An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.

Impacts of fire and prospects for recovery in a tropical peat forest ecosystem.

Uncontrolled fires place considerable burdens on forest ecosystems, compromising our ability to meet conservation and restoration goals. A poor understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystems and their biodiversity exacerbates this challenge, particularly in tropical regions where few studies have applied consistent analytical techniques to examine a broad range of ecological impacts over multiyear time frames. We compiled 16 y of data on ecosystem properties (17 variables) and biodiversity (21 variables) from a tropical peatland in Indonesia to assess fire impacts and infer the potential for recovery. Burned forest experienced altered structural and microclimatic conditions, resulting in a proliferation of nonforest vegetation and erosion of forest ecosystem properties and biodiversity. Compared to unburned forest, habitat structure, tree density, and canopy cover deteriorated by 58 to 98%, while declines in species diversity and abundance were most pronounced for trees, damselflies, and butterflies, particularly for forest specialist species. Tracking ecosystem property and biodiversity datasets over time revealed most to be sensitive to recurrent high-intensity fires within the wider landscape. These megafires immediately compromised water quality and tree reproductive phenology, crashing commercially valuable fish populations within 3 mo and driving a gradual decline in threatened vertebrates over 9 mo. Burned forest remained structurally compromised long after a burn event, but vegetation showed some signs of recovery over a 12-y period. Our findings demonstrate that, if left uncontrolled, fire may be a pervasive threat to the ecological functioning of tropical forests, underscoring the importance of fire prevention and long-term restoration efforts, as exemplified in Indonesia.

The velocity of postglacial migration of fire-adapted boreal tree species in eastern North America.

The Earth's climate has been warming rapidly since the beginning of the industrial era, forcing terrestrial organisms to adapt. Migration constitutes one of the most effective processes for surviving and thriving, although the speed at which tree species migrate as a function of climate change is unknown. One way to predict latitudinal movement of trees under the climate of the twenty-first century is to examine past migration since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, radiocarbon-dated macrofossils were used to calculate the velocity of past migration of jack pine (Pinus banksiana) and black spruce (Picea mariana), two important fire-adapted conifers of the North American boreal forest. Jack pine migrated at a mean rate of 19 km per century (km-cent) from unglaciated sites in the central and southeastern United States to the northern limit of the species in subarctic Canada. However, the velocity increased between unglaciated and early deglaciated sites in southern Quebec and slowed from early to mid-Holocene in central and eastern Quebec. Migration was at its lowest speed in late-Holocene times, when it stopped about 3,000 y ago. Compared with jack pine, black spruce migrated at a faster mean rate of 25 km-cent from the ice border at the last interstadial (Bølling/Allerød) to the species tree limit. The modern range of both species was nearly occupied about 6,000 y ago. The factors modulating the changing velocity of jack pine migration were closely associated with the warm-dry climate of the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the more humid climate of the mid- and late-Holocene.

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world.

Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

Low-severity fires in the boreal region: reproductive implications for black spruce stands in between stand-replacing fire events.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Stand-replacing crown fires are the most prevalent type of fire regime in boreal forests in North America. However, a substantial proportion of low-severity fires are found within fire perimeters. Here we aimed to investigate the effects of low-severity fires on the reproductive potential and seedling recruitment in boreal forests stands in between stand-replacing fire events. METHODS: We recorded site and tree characteristics from 149 trees within twelve sites dominated by mature black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] trees in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The presence of fire-scarred trees supported classification of sites as unburned or affected by low-severity fires in recent history. We used non-parametric tests to evaluate differences in site conditions between unburned and low-severity sites, and mixed effect models to evaluate differences in tree age, size, and reproductive traits among unburned trees and trees from low-severity sites. KEY RESULTS: Results showed significantly higher density of dead black spruce trees in low-severity sites, and marginally significant higher presence of permafrost. Trees from low-severity fire sites were significantly older, exhibited significantly lower tree growth, and showed a tendency towards a higher probability of cone presence and percentage of open cones compared to trees from unburned sites. Surviving fire-scarred trees affected by more recent low-severity fires showed a tendency towards higher probability of cone presence and cone production. Density of black spruce seedlings significantly increased with recent low-severity fires. CONCLUSIONS: Trees in low-severity sites appeared to have escaped mortality from up to three fires, as indicated by fire scar records and their older ages. Shallow permafrost at low-severity sites may cause lower flammability, allowing areas to act as fire refugia. Low-severity surface fires temporarily enhanced the reproductive capacity of surviving trees and the density of seedlings, likely as a stress response to the fire event.

Fire facilitates ground layer plant diversity in a Miombo ecosystem.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little is known about the response of ground layer plant communities to fire in Miombo ecosystems, which is a global blind spot of ecological understanding. We aimed: (1) to assess the impact of three experimentally imposed fire treatments on ground layer species composition and compare it with patterns observed for trees; and (2) to analyse the effect of fire treatments on species richness to assess how responses differ among plant functional groups. METHODS: At a 60-year-long fire experiment in Zambia, we quantified the richness and diversity of ground layer plants in terms of taxa and functional groups across three experimental fire treatments of late dry-season fire, early dry-season fire and fire exclusion. Data were collected in five repeat surveys from the onset of the wet season to the early dry season. KEY RESULTS: Of the 140 ground layer species recorded across the three treatments, fire-maintained treatments contributed most of the richness and diversity, with the least number of unique species found in the no-fire treatment. The early-fire treatment was more similar in composition to the no-fire treatment than to the late-fire treatment. C4 grass and geoxyle richness were highest in the late-fire treatment, and there were no shared sedge species between the late-fire and other treatments. At a plot level, the average richness in the late-fire treatment was twice that of the fire exclusion treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity in fire seasonality and intensity supports diversity of a unique flora by providing a diversity of local environments. African ecosystems face rapid expansion of land- and fire-management schemes for carbon offsetting and sequestration. We demonstrate that analyses of the impacts of such schemes predicated on the tree flora alone are highly likely to underestimate impacts on biodiversity. A research priority must be a new understanding of the Miombo ground layer flora integrated into policy and land management.

Fire effects on pollination and plant reproduction: a quantitative review.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fire may favour plant flowering by opening the vegetation and increasing abiotic resource availability. Increased floral display size can attract more pollinators and increase the absolute fruit and seed production immediately after the fire. However, anthropogenic increases in fire frequency may alter these responses. We aim to assess the effects of fire on pollination and reproductive success of plants at the global scale. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analyses to examine overall fire effects as well as different fire parameters on pollination and on plant reproduction. We also explored to what extent the responses vary among pollinators, pollination vectors, plant regeneration strategies, compatibility systems, vegetation types and biomes. KEY RESULTS: Most studies were conducted in fire-prone ecosystems. Overall, single fires increased pollination and plant reproduction but this effect was overridden by recurrent fires. Floral visitation rates of pollinators were enhanced immediately following a wildfire, and especially in bee-pollinated plants. Fire increased the absolute production of fruits or seeds but not the fruit or seed set. The reproductive benefits were mostly observed in wind-pollinated (graminoids), herbaceous and resprouter species. Finally, fire effects on pollination were positively correlated with fire effects on plant reproductive success. CONCLUSIONS: Fire has a central role in pollination and plant sexual reproduction in fire-prone ecosystems. The increase in the absolute production of fruits and seeds suggests that fire benefits on plant reproduction are likely driven by increased abiotic resources and the consequent floral display size. However, reproduction efficiency, as measured by fruit or seed set, does not increase with fire. In contrast, when assessed on the same plant simultaneously, fire effects on pollination are translated into reproduction. Increased fire frequency due to anthropogenic changes can alter the nature of the response to fire.

Thresholds and alternative states in a Neotropical dry forest in response to fire severity.

Neotropical xerophytic forest ecosystems evolved with fires that shaped their resilience to disturbance events. However, it is unknown whether forest resilience to fires persists under a new fire regime influenced by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. We asked whether there was evidence for a fire severity threshold causing an abrupt transition from a forest to an alternative shrub thicket state in the presence of typical postfire management. We studied a heterogeneous wildfire event to assess medium-term effects (11 years) of varying fire severity in a xerophytic Caldén forest in central Argentina. We conducted vegetation surveys in patches that were exposed to low (LFS), medium (MFS), and high (HFS) fire severities but had similar prefire woody canopy cover. Satellite images were used to quantify fire severity using a delta Normalized Burning Ratio (dNBR) and to map prefire canopy cover. Postfire total woody canopy cover was higher in low and medium than high severity patches, but the understory woody component was highest in HFS patches. The density of woody plants was over three times higher under HFS than MFS and LFS due to the contribution of small woody plants to the total density. Unlike LFS and MFS patches, the small plants in HFS patches were persistent, multistem shrubs that resulted from the resprouting of top-killed Prosopis caldenia trees and, more importantly, from young shrubs that probably established after the wildfire. Our results suggest that the Caldén forest is resilient to fires of low to moderate severities but not to high-severity fires. Fire severities with dNBR values > ~600 triggered an abrupt transition to a shrub thicket state. Postfire grazing and controlled-fire treatments likely contributed to shrub dominance after high-severity wildfire. Forest to shrub thicket transitions enable recurring high-severity fire events. We propose that repeated fires combined with grazing can trap the system in a shrub thicket state. Further studies are needed to determine whether the relationships between fire and vegetation structure examined in this case study represent general mechanisms of irreversible state changes across the Caldenal forest region and whether analogous threshold relationships exist in other fire-prone woodland ecosystems.

Multi-taxon biodiversity responses to the 2019-2020 Australian megafires.

Conditions conducive to fires are becoming increasingly common and widespread under climate change. Recent fire events across the globe have occurred over unprecedented scales, affecting a diverse array of species and habitats. Understanding biodiversity responses to such fires is critical for conservation. Quantifying post-fire recovery is problematic across taxa, from insects to plants to vertebrates, especially at large geographic scales. Novel datasets can address this challenge. We use presence-only citizen science data from iNaturalist, collected before and after the 2019-2020 megafires in burnt and unburnt regions of eastern Australia, to quantify the effect of post-fire diversity responses, up to 18 months post-fire. The geographic, temporal, and taxonomic sampling of this dataset was large, but sampling effort and species discoverability were unevenly spread. We used rarefaction and prediction (iNEXT) with which we controlled sampling completeness among treatments, to estimate diversity indices (Hill numbers: q = 0-2) among nine broad taxon groupings and seven habitats, including 3885 species. We estimated an increase in species diversity up to 18 months after the 2019-2020 Australian megafires in regions which were burnt, compared to before the fires in burnt and unburnt regions. Diversity estimates in dry sclerophyll forest matched and likely drove this overall increase post-fire, while no taxon groupings showed clear increases inconsistent with both control treatments post-fire. Compared to unburnt regions, overall diversity across all taxon groupings and habitats greatly decreased in areas exposed to extreme fire severity. Post-fire life histories are complex and species detectability is an important consideration in all post-fire sampling. We demonstrate how fire characteristics, distinct taxa, and habitat influence biodiversity, as seen in local-scale datasets. Further integration of large-scale datasets with small-scale studies will lead to a more robust understanding of fire recovery.

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe.

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power-law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity in Europe. We further show a robust positive correlation between summer vapor pressure deficit and both maximum fire size (R2  = .19) and maximum burn severity (R2  = .12). Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by the end of the century. Our results suggest that climate change will challenge current fire management approaches and could undermine the ability of Europe's forests to provide ecosystem services to society.

The contribution of Indigenous stewardship to an historical mixed-severity fire regime in British Columbia, Canada.

Indigenous land stewardship and mixed-severity fire regimes both promote landscape heterogeneity, and the relationship between them is an emerging area of research. In our study, we reconstructed the historical fire regime of Ne Sextsine, a 5900-ha dry, Douglas fir-dominated forest in the traditional territory of the T'exelc (Williams Lake First Nation) in British Columbia, Canada. Between 1550 and 1982 CE, we found median fire intervals of 18 years at the plot level and 4 years at the study-site level. Ne Sextsine was characterized by an historical mixed-severity fire regime, dominated by frequent, low-severity fires as indicated by fire scars, with infrequent, mixed-severity fires indicated by cohorts. Differentiating low- from mixed-severity plots over time was key to understanding the drivers of the fire regime at Ne Sextsine. Low-severity plots were coincident with areas of highest use by the T'exelc, including winter village sites, summer fishing camps, and travel corridors. The high fire frequency in low-severity plots ceased in the 1870s, following the smallpox epidemic, the forced relocation of Indigenous peoples into small reserves, and the prohibition of Indigenous burning. In contrast, the mixed-severity plots were coincident with areas where forest resources, such as deer or certain berry species, were important. The high fire frequency in the mixed-severity plots continued until the 1920s when industrial-scale grazing and logging began, facilitated by the establishment of a nearby railway. T'exelc oral histories and archeological evidence at Ne Sextsine speak to varied land stewardship, reflected in the spatiotemporal complexity of low- and mixed-severity fire plots. Across Ne Sextsine, 63% of cohorts established and persisted in the absence of fire after colonial impacts beginning in the 1860s, resulting in a dense, homogeneous landscape that no longer supports T'exelc values and is more likely to burn at uncharacteristic high severities. This nuanced understanding of the Indigenous contribution to a mixed-severity fire regime is critical for advancing proactive fire mitigation that is ecoculturally relevant and guided by Indigenous expertise.

Mechanical treatments and prescribed burning can reintroduce low-severity fire in southern Australian temperate sclerophyll forests.

The establishment of sustainable, low-intensity fire regimes is a pressing global challenge given escalating risk of wildfire driven by climate change. Globally, colonialism and industrialisation have disrupted traditional fire management, such as Indigenous patch burning and silvo-pastoral practices, leading to substantial build-up of fuel and increased fire risk. The disruption of fire regimes in southeastern Tasmania has led to dense even-aged regrowth in wet forests that are prone to crown fires, and dense Allocasuarina-dominated understoreys in dry forests that burn at high intensities. Here, we investigated the effectiveness of several fire management interventions at reducing fire risk. These interventions involved prescribed burning or mechanical understorey removal techniques. We focused on wet and dry Eucalyptus-dominated sclerophyll forests on the slopes of kunanyi/Mt. Wellington in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. We modelled potential fire behaviour in these treated wet and dry forests using fire behaviour equations based on measurements of fuel load, vegetation structure, understorey microclimate and regional meteorological data. We found that (a) fuel treatments were effective in wet and dry forests in reducing fuel load, though each targeted different layers, (b) both mechanical treatments and prescribed burning resulted in slightly drier, and hence more fire prone understorey microclimate, and (c) all treatments reduced predicted subsequent fire severity by roughly 2-4 fold. Our results highlight the importance of reducing fuel loads, even though fuel treatments make forest microclimates drier, and hence fuel more flammable. Our finding of the effectiveness of mechanical treatments in lowering fire risk enables managers to reduce fuels without the risk of uncontrolled fires and smoke pollution that is associated with prescribed burning. Understanding the economic and ecological costs and benefits of mechanic treatment compared to prescribed burning requires further research.

The fuel-climate-fire conundrum: How will fire regimes change in temperate eucalypt forests under climate change?

Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate-mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south-eastern Australia that encompass a broad continuum from climate-limited to fuel-limited. Climate-mediated change in weather and fuel was predicted to intensify fire regimes in all six landscapes by increasing wildfire extent and intensity and decreasing fire interval, potentially led by an earlier start to the fire season. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in all the tested fire regime attributes: area burnt, area burnt at high intensity, fire interval, high-intensity fire interval, and season midpoint. However, effects of future fuel acted synergistically or antagonistically with future weather depending on the landscape and the fire regime attribute. Our results suggest that fire regimes are likely to shift across temperate ecosystems in south-eastern Australia in coming decades, particularly in climate-limited systems where there is the potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity.

Fire-driven vegetation type conversion in Southern California.

One consequence of global change causing widespread concern is the possibility of ecosystem conversions from one type to another. A classic example of this is vegetation type conversion (VTC) from native woody shrublands to invasive annual grasslands in the biodiversity hotspot of Southern California. Although the significance of this problem is well recognized, understanding where, how much, and why this change is occurring remains elusive owing to differences in results from studies conducted using different methods, spatial extents, and scales. Disagreement has arisen particularly over the relative importance of short-interval fires in driving these changes. Chronosequence approaches that use space for time to estimate changes have produced different results than studies of changes at a site over time. Here we calculated the percentage woody and herbaceous cover across Southern California using air photos from ~1950 to 2019. We assessed the extent of woody cover change and the relative importance of fire history, topography, soil moisture, and distance to human infrastructure in explaining change across a hierarchy of spatial extents and regions. We found substantial net decline in woody cover and expansion of herbaceous vegetation across all regions, but the most dramatic changes occurred in the northern interior and southern coastal areas. Variables related to frequent, short-interval fire were consistently top ranked as the explanation for shrub to grassland type conversion, but low soil moisture and topographic complexity were also strong correlates. Despite the consistent importance of fire, there was substantial geographical variation in the relative importance of drivers, and these differences resulted in different mapped predictions of VTC. This geographical variation is important to recognize for management decision-making and, in addition to differences in methodological design, may also partly explain differences in previous study results. The overwhelming importance of short-interval fire has management implications. It suggests that actions should be directed away from imposing fires to preventing fires. Prevention can be controlled through management actions that limit ignitions, fire spread, and the damage sustained in areas that do burn. This study also demonstrates significant potential for changing fire regimes to drive large-scale, abrupt ecological change.

Invasive grasses increase fire occurrence and frequency across US ecoregions.

Fire-prone invasive grasses create novel ecosystem threats by increasing fine-fuel loads and continuity, which can alter fire regimes. While the existence of an invasive grass-fire cycle is well known, evidence of altered fire regimes is typically based on local-scale studies or expert knowledge. Here, we quantify the effects of 12 nonnative, invasive grasses on fire occurrence, size, and frequency across 29 US ecoregions encompassing more than one third of the conterminous United States. These 12 grass species promote fire locally and have extensive spatial records of abundant infestations. We combined agency and satellite fire data with records of abundant grass invasion to test for differences in fire regimes between invaded and nearby "uninvaded" habitat. Additionally, we assessed whether invasive grass presence is a significant predictor of altered fire by modeling fire occurrence, size, and frequency as a function of grass invasion, in addition to anthropogenic and ecological covariates relevant to fire. Eight species showed significantly higher fire-occurrence rates, which more than tripled for Schismus barbatus and Pennisetum ciliare. Six species demonstrated significantly higher mean fire frequency, which more than doubled for Neyraudia reynaudiana and Pennisetum ciliare Grass invasion was significant in fire occurrence and frequency models, but not in fire-size models. The significant differences in fire regimes, coupled with the importance of grass invasion in modeling these differences, suggest that invasive grasses alter US fire regimes at regional scales. As concern about US wildfires grows, accounting for fire-promoting invasive grasses will be imperative for effectively managing ecosystems.

Experimental seed sowing reveals seedling recruitment vulnerability to unseasonal fire.

Unseasonal fire occurrence is increasing globally, driven by climate change and other human activity. Changed timing of fire can inhibit postfire seedling recruitment through interactions with plant phenology (the timing of key processes, e.g., flower initiation, seed production, dispersal, germination), and therefore threaten the persistence of many plant species. Although empirical evidence from winter-rainfall ecosystems shows that optimal seedling recruitment is expected following summer and autumn (dry season) fires, we sought experimental evidence isolating the mechanisms of poor recruitment following unseasonal (wet season) fire. We implemented a seed-sowing experiment using nine species native to fire-prone, Mediterranean-climate woodlands in southwestern Australia to emulate the timing of postfire recruitment and test key mechanisms of fire seasonality effects. For seeds sown during months when fire is unseasonal (i.e., August-September: end of the wet winter season), seedling recruitment was reduced by up to 99% relative to seeds sown during seasonal fire months (i.e., May-June: end of the dry summer season) because of varying seed persistence, seedling emergence, and seedling survival. We found that up to 70 times more seedlings emerged when seeds were sown during seasonal fire months compared to when seeds were sown during unseasonal fire months. The few seedlings that emerged from unseasonal sowings all died with the onset of the dry season. Of the seeds that failed to germinate from unseasonal sowings, only 2% survived exposure on the soil surface over the ensuing hot and dry summer. Our experimental results demonstrate the potential for unseasonal fire to inhibit seedling recruitment via impacts on pregermination seed persistence and seedling establishment. As ongoing climate change lengthens fire seasons (i.e., unseasonal wildfires become more common) and managed fires are implemented further outside historically typical fire seasons, postfire seedling recruitment may become more vulnerable to failure, causing shifts in plant community composition towards those with fewer species solely dependent on seeds for regeneration.

How does prescribed fire shape bird and plant communities in a temperate dry forest ecosystem?

To mitigate the impact of severe wildfire on human society and the environment, prescribed fire is widely used in forest ecosystems to reduce fuel loads and limit fire spread. To avoid detrimental effects on conservation values, it is imperative to understand how prescribed fire affects taxa having a range of different adaptations to disturbance. Such studies will have greatest benefit if they extend beyond short-term impacts of burning. We used a field study to examine the effects of prescribed fire on birds and plants across a 36-yr post-fire chronosequence in a temperate dry forest ecosystem in southeastern Australia, and by making comparison with long-unburned reference sites (79 yr since wildfire). We modeled changes in the relative abundance of 22 bird species and the cover of 39 plant species, and examined how individual species, functional groups, species richness and community composition differed between sites with different fire history. For most individual bird and plant species modeled, relative abundance or cover at sites subject to prescribed fire did not change significantly with time since fire or differ from that of long-unburned vegetation. When bird species were pooled into functional groups, time since prescribed fire had strong effects on birds that forage in the lower-midstorey, facultative-resprouting shrubs and obligate-seeding shrubs. Species richness for both taxa did not differ between sites subject to prescribed fire and those in long-unburned vegetation. Bird communities varied significantly between the youngest (0-3 yr) and oldest (79 yr) post-fire age classes, driven by species associated with understorey vegetation. Plant community composition showed little evidence of a post-fire successional trajectory. The prevalence of bird species with broad habitat and dietary niches and plant regeneration through resprouting, make bird and plant communities in these forests relatively resilient to small and patchy prescribed fires they have experienced to date. Application of prescribed fire will be most compatible with maintaining biodiversity by taking a landscape approach that (1) plans for a geographic spread of stands with a range of between-prescribed-fire intervals to ensure provision of suitable habitat for all taxa, and (2) avoids burning in moist gullies to maintain their value as fire refuges.

Estimating social-ecological resilience: fire management futures in the Sonoran Desert.

Resilience quantifies the ability of a system to remain in or return to its current state following disturbance. Due to inconsistent terminology and usage of resilience frameworks, quantitative resilience studies are challenging, and resilience is often treated as an abstract concept rather than a measurable system characteristic. We used a novel, spatially explicit stakeholder engagement process to quantify social-ecological resilience to fire, in light of modeled social-ecological fire risk, across the non-fire-adapted Sonoran Desert Ecosystem in Arizona, USA. Depending on its severity and the characteristics of the ecosystem, fire as a disturbance has the potential to drive ecological state change. As a result, fire regime change is of increasing concern as global change and management legacies alter the distribution and flammability of fuels. Because management and use decisions impact resources and ecological processes, social and ecological factors must be evaluated together to predict resilience to fire. We found highest fire risk in the central and eastern portions of the study area, where flammable fuels occur with greater density and frequency and managers reported fewer management resources than in other locations. We found lowest fire resilience in the southeastern portion of the study area, where combined ecological and social factors, including abundant fuels, few management resources, and little evidence of past institutional adaptability, indicated that sites were least likely to retain their current characteristics and permit achievement of current management objectives. Analyzing ecological and social characteristics together permits regional managers to predict the effects of changing fire regimes across large, multi-jurisdictional landscapes and to consider where to direct resources. This study brought social and ecological factors together into a common spatial framework to produce vulnerability maps; our methods may inform researchers and managers in other systems facing novel disturbance and spatially variable resilience.

Overwintering behavior reduces mortality for a terrestrial turtle in forests managed with prescribed fire.

Prescribed fire is an essential management practice in pyrogenic ecosystems, but fire can also be a significant disturbance and source of mortality for both target and non-target species. Seasonal periods of animal inactivity may provide opportunities to design burn plans that minimize negative impacts to species of conservation concern, but few studies have rigorously examined this possibility. Using radiotelemetry, we studied overwintering behavior and interactions with fire in a forest-dwelling terrestrial turtle, the Eastern Box Turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina), over an eight-year period at two sites that use prescribed fire in forest management. Turtles at both sites selected predominantly hardwood forests and mesic habitats and avoided upland pine forests. Turtles buried deepest (2.9 - 3.2 cm) below the soil-litter interface in late February and then moved gradually shallower until emergence in early April. Emergence timing varied over a 58-day period, but was consistent within individuals from year to year. Turtles also maintained fidelity to refuge locations, but those overwintering in burned areas selected sites over twice as far from refuges used in previous years compared to those in unburned areas. The areas and habitats selected by turtles during winter served as refugia from fire, and those whose refuges did burn remained buffered from lethal temperatures even at shallow burial depths. The only fire-related injury or mortality occurred during seasons of surface activity. Timing burning and other forest management practices during periods of winter dormancy may thus minimize threats to turtle populations, but modifications to prescribed fire regimes must also be balanced with other management objectives.

Bioturbation by a reintroduced digging mammal reduces fuel loads in an urban reserve.

Digging animals may alter many characteristics of their environment as they disrupt and modify the ground's surface by creating foraging pits or burrows. Extensive disturbance to the soil and litter layer changes litter distribution and availability, potentially altering fuel loads. In many landscapes, including peri-urban areas, fire management to reduce fuel loads is complex and challenging. The reintroduction of previously common digging animals, many of which are now threatened, may have the added benefit of reducing fuel loads. We experimentally examined how the reintroduction of a marsupial bandicoot, quenda (Isoodon fusciventer), altered surface fuel loads in an urban bush reserve in Perth, Western Australia. Foraging activities of quenda (where they dig for subterranean food) were substantial throughout the reserve, creating a visibly patchy distribution in surface litter. Further, in open plots where quenda had access, compared to fenced plots where quenda were excluded, quenda foraging significantly reduced litter cover and litter depth. Similarly, estimated surface fuel loads were nearly halved in open plots where quenda foraged compared to fenced plots where quenda were absent (3.6 cf. 6.4 Mg/ha). Fire behavior modeling, using the estimated surface fuel loads, indicated the predicted rate of spread of fire were significantly lower for open plots where quenda foraged compared to fenced plots under both low (29.2 cf. 51.4 m/h; total fuels) and high (74.3 cf. 130.4 m/h; total fuels) fire conditions. Although many environments require fire, including the bushland where this study occurred, fire management can be a considerable challenge in many landscapes, including urban bushland reserves, which are usually small and close to human infrastructure. The reintroduction of previously common digging species may have potential value as a complimentary tool for reducing fuel loads, and potentially, fire risk.