Half of global islands have reached critical area thresholds for undergoing rapid increases in biological invasions.

Biological invasions are among the threats to global biodiversity and social sustainability, especially on islands. Identifying the threshold of area at which non-native species begin to increase abruptly is crucial for early prevention strategies. The small-island effect (SIE) was proposed to quantify the nonlinear relationship between native species richness and area but has not yet been applied to non-native species and thus to predict the key breakpoints at which established non-native species start to increase rapidly. Based on an extensive global dataset, including 769 species of non-native birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles established on 4277 islands across 54 archipelagos, we detected a high prevalence of SIEs across 66.7% of archipelagos. Approximately 50% of islands have reached the threshold area and thus may be undergoing a rapid increase in biological invasions. SIEs were more likely to occur in those archipelagos with more non-native species introduction events, more established historical non-native species, lower habitat diversity and larger archipelago area range. Our findings may have important implications not only for targeted surveillance of biological invasions on global islands but also for predicting the responses of both non-native and native species to ongoing habitat fragmentation under sustained land-use modification and climate change.

The importance of migratory drop-off for island colonization in birds.

Seasonal migration is an underappreciated driver of animal diversification. Changes in migratory behaviour may favour the establishment of sedentary founder populations and promote speciation if there is sufficient reproductive isolation between sedentary and migratory populations. From a systematic literature review, we here quantify the role of migratory drop-off-the loss of migratory behaviour-in promoting speciation in birds on islands. We identify at least 157 independent colonization events likely initiated by migratory species that led to speciation, including 44 cases among recently extinct species. By comparing, for all islands, the proportion of island endemic species that derived from migratory drop-off with the proportion of migratory species among potential colonizers, we showed that seasonal migration has a larger effect on island endemic richness than direct dispersal. We also found that the role of migration in island colonization increases with the geographic isolation of islands. Furthermore, the success of speciation events depends in part on species biogeographic and ecological factors, here positively associated with greater range size and larger flock sizes. These results highlight the importance of shifts in migratory behaviour in the speciation process and calls for greater consideration of migratory drop-off in the biogeographic distribution of birds.

Land-use change interacts with island biogeography to alter bird community assembly.

Anthropogenic activities have reshaped biodiversity on islands worldwide. However, it remains unclear how island attributes and land-use change interactively shape multiple facets of island biodiversity through community assembly processes. To answer this, we conducted bird surveys in various land-use types (mainly forest and farmland) using transects on 34 oceanic land-bridge islands in the largest archipelago of China. We found that bird species richness increased with island area and decreased with isolation, regardless of the intensity of land-use change. However, forest-dominated habitats exhibited lower richness than farmland-dominated habitats. Island bird assemblages generally comprised species that share more similar traits or evolutionary histories (i.e. functional and/or phylogenetic clustering) than expected if assemblages were randomly assembled. Contrary to our expectations, we observed that bird assemblages in forest-dominated habitats were more clustered on large and close islands, whereas assemblages in farmland-dominated habitats were more clustered on small islands. These contrasting results indicate that land-use change interacts with island biogeography to alter the community assembly of birds on inhabited islands. Our findings emphasize the importance of incorporating human-modified habitats when examining the community assembly of island biota, and further suggest that agricultural landscapes on large islands may play essential roles in protecting countryside island biodiversity.

The burden of anthropogenic changes and mutation load in a critically endangered harrier from the Reunion biodiversity hotspot, Circus maillardi.

Anthropogenic impact is causing the decline of a large proportion of species worldwide and reduces their genetic diversity. Island species typically have smaller ranges than continental species. As a consequence, island species are particularly liable to undergo population bottlenecks, giving rise to conservation challenges such as inbreeding and unmasking of deleterious genetic load. Such challenges call for more detailed assessments of the genetic make-up of threatened island populations. The Mascarene islands (Indian Ocean) present many prime examples, being unusual in having been pristine until first human arrival ~400 years ago, following which anthropogenic pressure was unusually intense. A threatened harrier (Circus maillardi) endemic to the westernmost island of the archipelago is a good example of the challenges faced by species that have declined to small population size following intense anthropogenic pressure. In this study, we use an extensive set of population genomic tools to quantify variation at near-neutral and coding loci, in order to test the historical impact of human activity on this species, and evaluate the species' (mal)adaptive potential. We observed low but significant genetic differentiation between populations on the West and North-East sides of the island, echoing observations in other endemic species. Inbreeding was significant, with a substantial fraction of samples being first or second-degree relatives. Historical effective population sizes have declined from ~3000 to 300 individuals in the past 1000 years, with a more recent drop ~100 years ago consistent with human activity. Based on our simulations and comparisons with a close relative (Circus melanoleucos), this demographic history may have allowed purging of the most deleterious variants but is unlikely to have allowed the purging of mildly deleterious variants. Our study shows how using relatively affordable methods can reveal the massive impact that human activity may have on the genetic diversity and adaptive potential of island populations, and calls for urgent action to closely monitor the reproductive success of such endemic populations, in association with genetic studies.

Genomic SNPs resolve the phylogeny of an ancient amphibian island radiation from the Seychelles.

Unusually for oceanic islands, the granitic Seychelles host multiple lineages of endemic amphibians. This includes an ancient (likely ca. 60 million years) radiation of eight caecilian species, most of which occur on multiple islands.These caecilians have a complicated taxonomic history and their phylogenetic inter-species relationships have been difficult to resolve. Double-digest RAD sequencing (ddRADseq) has been applied extensively to phylogeography and increasingly to phylogenetics but its utility for resolving ancient divergences is less well established. To address this, we applied ddRADseq to generate a genome-wide SNP panel for phylogenomic analyses of the Seychelles caecilians, whose phylogeny has so far not been satisfactorily resolved with traditional DNA markers. Based on 129,154 SNPs, we resolved deep and shallow splits, with strong support. Our findings demonstrate the capability of genome-wide SNPs for evolutionary inference at multiple taxonomic levels and support the recently proposed synonymy of Grandisonia Taylor, 1968 with Hypogeophis Peters, 1879. We revealed three clades of Hypogeophis (large-, medium- and short-bodied) and identify a single origin of the diminutive, stocky-bodied and pointy-snouted phenotype.

Population structure in Mixornis tit-babblers across Sunda Shelf matches interfluvia of paleo-rivers.

Rivers constitute an important biogeographic divide in vast areas of tropical rainforest, such as the Amazon and Congo Basins. Southeast Asia's rainforests are currently fragmented across islands divided by sea, which has long obscured their extensive history of terrestrial connectivity as part of a vast (but now submerged) subcontinent - Sundaland - during most of the Quaternary. The role of paleo-rivers in determining population structure in Sundaic rainforests at a time when these forests were connected remains little understood. We examined the coloration of museum skins and used the genomic DNA of museum samples and freshly-collected blood tissue of a pair of Sundaic songbird species, the pin-striped and bold-striped tit-babblers (Mixornis gularis and M. bornensis, respectively), to assess the genetic affinity of populations on small Sundaic islands that have largely been ignored by modern research. Our genomic and morphological results place the populations from the Anambas and Natuna Islands firmly within M. gularis from the Malay Peninsula in western Sundaland, even though some of these islands are geographically much closer to Borneo, where M. bornensis resides. Our results reveal genetic structure consistent with the course of Sundaic paleo-rivers and the location of the interfluvia they formed, and add to a small but growing body of evidence that rivers would have been of equal biogeographic importance in Sundaland's former connected forest landscape as they are in Amazonia and the Congo Basin today.

Climate-associated variation in the drivers of benthic macroinvertebrate species-area relationships across shallow freshwater lakes.

The island species-area relationship (ISAR) describes how species richness increases with increasing area of a given island or island-like habitat, such as freshwater lakes. While the ISAR is one of the most common phenomena observed in ecology, there is variation in both the form of the relationship and its underlying mechanisms. We compiled a global data set of benthic macroinvertebrates from 524 shallow freshwater lakes, ranging from 1 to 293,300 ha in area. We used individual-based rarefaction to determine the degree to which ISAR was influenced by mechanisms other than passive sampling (larger islands passively sample more individuals from the regional pool and, therefore, have more species than smaller islands), which would bias results away from expected relationships between rarefied species richness (and other measures that capture relative abundances) and lake area. We also examined how climate may alter the shape of the ISARs. We found that both rarefied species richness (the number of species standardized by area or number of individuals) and a measure of evenness emphasizing common species exhibit shallow slopes in relationships with lake area, suggesting that the expected ISARs in these lakes most likely result from passive sampling. While there was considerable variation among ISARs across the investigated lakes, we found an overall positive rarefied ISAR for lakes in warm (i.e. tropical/subtropical) regions (n = 195), and in contrast, an overall negative rarefied ISAR in cool (i.e. north temperate) lakes (n = 329). This suggested that mechanisms beyond passive sampling (e.g. colonization-extinction dynamics and/or heterogeneity) were more likely to operate in warm lakes. One possible reason for this difference is that the area-dependent intensity of fish predation, which can lead to flatter ISARs, is weaker in warmer relative to cooler lakes. Our study illustrates the importance of understanding both the pattern and potential processes underlying the ISARs of freshwater lakes in different climatic regions. Furthermore, it provides a baseline for understanding how further changes to the ecosystem (i.e. in lake area or climate) might influence biodiversity patterns.

No evidence for widespread island extinctions after Pleistocene hominin arrival.

The arrival of modern humans into previously unoccupied island ecosystems is closely linked to widespread extinction, and a key reason cited for Pleistocene megafauna extinction is anthropogenic overhunting. A common assumption based on late Holocene records is that humans always negatively impact insular biotas, which requires an extrapolation of recent human behavior and technology into the archaeological past. Hominins have been on islands since at least the early Pleistocene and Homo sapiens for at least 50 thousand y (ka). Over such lengthy intervals it is scarcely surprising that significant evolutionary, behavioral, and cultural changes occurred. However, the deep-time link between human arrival and island extinctions has never been explored globally. Here, we examine archaeological and paleontological records of all Pleistocene islands with a documented hominin presence to examine whether humans have always been destructive agents. We show that extinctions at a global level cannot be associated with Pleistocene hominin arrival based on current data and are difficult to disentangle from records of environmental change. It is not until the Holocene that large-scale changes in technology, dispersal, demography, and human behavior visibly affect island ecosystems. The extinction acceleration we are currently experiencing is thus not inherent but rather part of a more recent cultural complex.

Fifty million years of beetle evolution along the Antarctic Polar Front.

Global cooling and glacial-interglacial cycles since Antarctica's isolation have been responsible for the diversification of the region's marine fauna. By contrast, these same Earth system processes are thought to have played little role terrestrially, other than driving widespread extinctions. Here, we show that on islands along the Antarctic Polar Front, paleoclimatic processes have been key to diversification of one of the world's most geographically isolated and unique groups of herbivorous beetles-Ectemnorhinini weevils. Combining phylogenomic, phylogenetic, and phylogeographic approaches, we demonstrate that these weevils colonized the sub-Antarctic islands from Africa at least 50 Ma ago and repeatedly dispersed among them. As the climate cooled from the mid-Miocene, diversification of the beetles accelerated, resulting in two species-rich clades. One of these clades specialized to feed on cryptogams, typical of the polar habitats that came to prevail under Miocene conditions yet remarkable as a food source for any beetle. This clade's most unusual representative is a marine weevil currently undergoing further speciation. The other clade retained the more common weevil habit of feeding on angiosperms, which likely survived glaciation in isolated refugia. Diversification of Ectemnorhinini weevils occurred in synchrony with many other Antarctic radiations, including penguins and notothenioid fishes, and coincided with major environmental changes. Our results thus indicate that geo-climatically driven diversification has progressed similarly for Antarctic marine and terrestrial organisms since the Miocene, potentially constituting a general biodiversity paradigm that should be sought broadly for the region's taxa.

Long-term trajectories of non-native vegetation on islands globally.

Human-mediated changes in island vegetation are, among others, largely caused by the introduction and establishment of non-native species. However, data on past changes in non-native plant species abundance that predate historical documentation and censuses are scarce. Islands are among the few places where we can track human arrival in natural systems allowing us to reveal changes in vegetation dynamics with the arrival of non-native species. We matched fossil pollen data with botanical status information (native, non-native), and quantified the timing, trajectories and magnitude of non-native plant vegetational change on 29 islands over the past 5000 years. We recorded a proportional increase in pollen of non-native plant taxa within the last 1000 years. Individual island trajectories are context-dependent and linked to island settlement histories. Our data show that non-native plant introductions have a longer and more dynamic history than is generally recognized, with critical implications for biodiversity baselines and invasion biology.