The origins of unpredictability in life outcome prediction tasks.

Why are some life outcomes difficult to predict? We investigated this question through in-depth qualitative interviews with 40 families sampled from a multidecade longitudinal study. Our sampling and interviewing process was informed by the earlier efforts of hundreds of researchers to predict life outcomes for participants in this study. The qualitative evidence we uncovered in these interviews combined with a mathematical decomposition of prediction error led us to create a conceptual framework. Our specific evidence and our more general framework suggest that unpredictability should be expected in many life outcome prediction tasks, even in the presence of complex algorithms and large datasets. Our work provides a foundation for future empirical and theoretical work on unpredictability in human lives.

Adulthood adiposity affects cardiac structure and function in later life.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Excess adiposity is associated with poorer cardiac function and adverse left ventricular (LV) remodelling. However, its importance over the adult life course on future cardiac structure and systolic and diastolic function is unknown. METHODS: A total of 1690 participants in the National Survey of Health and Development birth cohort underwent repeated adiposity [body mass index (BMI)/waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)] measurements over adulthood and investigation, including echocardiography at age 60-64 years. The relationship between LV structure [LV mass (LVM), relative wall thickness, and LV internal diameter in diastole (LVIDd)] and function (diastolic: E/e', e', and left atrial volume indexed to body surface area; systolic: ejection fraction, S', and myocardial contraction fraction) was investigated using multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: Increased BMI from age 20 years onwards was associated with greater LVM and LVIDd independent of confounders. Associations remained independent of current BMI for LVIDd and at age 26, 43, and 53 years for LVM. Increased BMI from 43 years onwards was associated with greater relative wall thickness, but not when BMI at age 60-64 years was accounted for. Increased BMI at age 26, 36, and 53 years and at 20 years onwards was associated with lower ejection fraction and myocardial contraction fraction, respectively, but not independently of BMI at 60-64 years. Higher BMI from 20 years onwards was associated with poorer diastolic function independent of confounders. Associations between BMI and left atrial volume indexed to body surface area persisted from 26 years onwards after adjustment for BMI at 60-64 years. Similar relationships were observed for WHR from age 43 years onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Higher adiposity (BMI/WHR) over adulthood is associated with evidence of adverse cardiac structure and function. Some of these associations are independent of adiposity in later life.

Overweight-years and cancer risk: A prospective study of the association and comparison of predictive performance with body mass index (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study).

Excess body mass index (BMI) is associated with a higher risk of at least 13 cancers, but it is usually measured at a single time point. We tested whether the overweight-years metric, which incorporates exposure time to BMI ≥25 kg/m2 , is associated with cancer risk and compared this with a single BMI measure. We used adulthood BMI readings in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study to derive the overweight-years metric. We calculated associations between the metric and BMI and the risk of cancers using Cox proportional hazards models. Models that either included the metric or BMI were compared using Harrell's C-statistic. We included 13,463 participants, with 3,876 first primary cancers over a mean of 19 years (SD 7) of cancer follow-up. Hazard ratios for obesity-related cancers per standard deviation overweight-years were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.05-1.25) in men and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08-1.20) in women. The difference in the C-statistic between models that incorporated BMI, or the overweight-years metric was non-significant in men and women. Overweight-years was associated with the risk of obesity-related cancers but did not outperform a single BMI measure in association performance characteristics.

The health implications of cumulative exposure to contextual (dis)advantage: Methodological and substantive advances from a unique data linkage.

Deleterious neighborhood conditions are associated with poor health, yet the health impact of cumulative lifetime exposure to neighborhood disadvantage is understudied. Using up to five decades of residential histories for 4,177 adult participants in the Survey of Health of Wisconsin (SHOW) and spatio-temporally linked neighborhood conditions, we develop four operational approaches to characterizing cumulative neighborhood (dis)advantage over the life course. We estimated their associations with self-reported general health and compared to estimates using neighborhood (dis)advantage at time of study enrollment. When cumulative exposures were assessed with the most granular temporal scale (Approach 4), neighborhood transport constraints (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.36), residential turnover (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.34), education deficit (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32), racial segregation (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38) and median household income (OR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.97) were significantly associated with risk of fair or poor health. For composite neighborhood disadvantage, cumulative exposures had a stronger association (OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.08) than the cross-sectional exposure (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). Single point-in-time neighborhood measures underestimate the neighborhood and health relationship, underscoring the importance of a life course approach to cumulative exposure measurement.

Neighborhood eviction trajectories and odds of moderate and serious psychological distress during pregnancy among African American women.

African American mothers are unjustly burdened by both residential evictions and psychological distress. We quantified associations between trajectories of neighborhood evictions over time and the odds of moderate and serious psychological distress (MPD and SPD, respectively) during pregnancy among African American women. We linked publicly available data on neighborhood eviction filing and judgment rates to preconception and during-pregnancy addresses from the Life-course Influences on Fetal Environments (LIFE) Study (2009-2011; n = 808). Multinomial logistic regression-estimated odds of MPD and SPD during pregnancy that were associated with eviction filing and judgment rate trajectories incorporating preconception and during-pregnancy addresses (each categorized as low, medium, or high, with two 9-category trajectory measures). Psychological distress was measured with the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6) (K6 scores 5-12 = MPD, and K6 scores ≥13 = SPD). MPD was reported in 60% of the sample and SPD in 8%. In adjusted models, higher neighborhood eviction filing and judgment rates, as compared with low/low rates, during the preconception and pregnancy periods were associated with 2- to 4-fold higher odds of both MPD and SPD during pregnancy among African American women. In future studies, researchers should identify mechanisms of these findings to inform timely community-based interventions and effective policy solutions to ensure the basic human right to housing for all. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Constructing Residential Histories in a General Population-Based Representative Sample.

Research on neighborhoods and health typically measures neighborhood context at a single point in time. However, neighborhood exposures accumulate over the life course, influenced by both residential mobility and neighborhood change, with potential implications for estimating the impact of neighborhoods on health. Commercial databases offer fine-grained longitudinal residential address data that can enrich life-course spatial epidemiology research, and validated methods for reconstructing residential histories from these databases are needed. Our study draws on unique data from a geographically diverse, population-based representative sample of adult Wisconsin residents and the LexisNexis (New York, New York) Accurint, a commercial personal profile database, to develop a systematic and reliable methodology for constructing individual residential histories. Our analysis demonstrated that creating residential histories across diverse geographical contexts is feasible, and it highlights differences in the information obtained from available residential histories by age, education, race/ethnicity, and rural/urban/suburban residency. Researchers should consider potential address data availability and information biases favoring socioeconomically advantaged individuals and their implications for studying health inequalities. Despite these limitations, LexisNexis data can generate varied residential exposure metrics and be linked to contextual data to enrich research into the contextual determinants of health at varied geographic scales.

Racial and Economic Segregation Over the Life Course and Incident Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy Among Black Women in California.

Black women in the United States have the highest incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and are disproportionately burdened by its adverse sequalae, compared with women of all racial and ethnic groups. Segregation, a key driver of structural racism for Black families, can provide information critical to understanding these disparities. We examined the association between racial and economic segregation at 2 points and incident HDP using intergenerationally linked birth records of 45,204 Black California-born primiparous mothers (born 1982-1997) and their infants (born 1997-2011), with HDP ascertained from hospital discharge records. Women's early childhood and adulthood neighborhoods were categorized as deprived, mixed, or privileged based on the Index of Concentration at the Extremes (a measure of concentrated racial and economic segregation), yielding 9 life-course trajectories. Women living in deprived neighborhoods at both time points experienced the highest odds of HDP (from mixed effect logistic regression, unadjusted odds ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.40) compared with women living in privileged neighborhoods at both time points. All trajectories involving residence in a deprived neighborhood in early childhood or adulthood were associated with increased odds of HDP, whereas mixed-privileged and privileged-mixed trajectories were not. Future studies should assess the causal nature of these associations.

Effects of an Intervention on Black Family Incomes on Self-Rated Health and Obesity in Black and White Adolescents and Young Adults.

Structural racism contributes to health disparities between U.S. non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic white populations by differentially distributing resources used to maintain health. Policies that equitably redistribute resources may mitigate racialized health disparities. Using National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health data and time-to-event parametric g-formula methods, we investigate a hypothetical intervention to reduce Black-white family income inequities on racialized differences in self-rated health (N=11,312) and obesity (N=10,547). We first intervene to increase individual Black family incomes by $11,000, creating Black-white equity in median incomes in 1995. Then, we measure social multiplier effects by additionally increasing county-level Black median household incomes by $11,000. By Wave 4, individual, direct effects models comparing Black intervention to Black control groups show no risk differences in self-rated health (RD=-0.009; 95% CI: -0.026, 0.008) or obesity (RD=0.003; 95% CI: -0.017, 0.023). Social multiplier effects models suggestively reduce Black-white inequalities in obesity by increasing obesity in white intervention versus white control groups (RD=0.050=; 95% CI: -0.011, 0.110), but exacerbate Black-white disparities in self-rated health by reducing self-rated health in Black intervention versus white control groups (RD=0.184; 95% CI: 0.018, 0.351). In this cohort, income transfers may not reduce racialized disparities in obesity and self-rated health.

The Study of the Epidemiology of Pediatric Hypertension Registry (SUPERHERO): Rationale and Methods.

Despite increasing prevalence of hypertension in youth and high adult cardiovascular mortality rates, the long-term consequences of youth-onset hypertension remain unknown. This is due to limitations of prior research such as small sample sizes, reliance on manual record review, and limited analytic methods that did not address major biases. The Study of the Epidemiology of Pediatric Hypertension (SUPERHERO) is a multisite retrospective Registry of youth evaluated by subspecialists for hypertension disorders. Sites obtain harmonized electronic health record data using standardized biomedical informatics scripts validated with randomized manual record review. Inclusion criteria are index visit for International Classification of Diseases Diagnostic Codes, 10th Revision (ICD-10 code)-defined hypertension disorder ≥January 1, 2015 and age <19 years. We exclude patients with ICD-10 code-defined pregnancy, kidney failure on dialysis, or kidney transplantation. Data include demographics, anthropomorphics, U.S. Census Bureau tract, histories, blood pressure, ICD-10 codes, medications, laboratory and imaging results, and ambulatory blood pressure. SUPERHERO leverages expertise in epidemiology, statistics, clinical care, and biomedical informatics to create the largest and most diverse registry of youth with newly diagnosed hypertension disorders. SUPERHERO's goals are to (i) reduce CVD burden across the life course and (ii) establish gold-standard biomedical informatics methods for youth with hypertension disorders.

Integrating machine learning and artificial intelligence in life-course epidemiology: pathways to innovative public health solutions.

The integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in life-course epidemiology offers remarkable opportunities to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between biological, social, and environmental factors that shape health trajectories across the lifespan. This perspective summarizes the current applications, discusses future potential and challenges, and provides recommendations for harnessing ML and AI technologies to develop innovative public health solutions. ML and AI have been increasingly applied in epidemiological studies, demonstrating their ability to handle large, complex datasets, identify intricate patterns and associations, integrate multiple and multimodal data types, improve predictive accuracy, and enhance causal inference methods. In life-course epidemiology, these techniques can help identify sensitive periods and critical windows for intervention, model complex interactions between risk factors, predict individual and population-level disease risk trajectories, and strengthen causal inference in observational studies. By leveraging the five principles of life-course research proposed by Elder and Shanahan-lifespan development, agency, time and place, timing, and linked lives-we discuss a framework for applying ML and AI to uncover novel insights and inform targeted interventions. However, the successful integration of these technologies faces challenges related to data quality, model interpretability, bias, privacy, and equity. To fully realize the potential of ML and AI in life-course epidemiology, fostering interdisciplinary collaborations, developing standardized guidelines, advocating for their integration in public health decision-making, prioritizing fairness, and investing in training and capacity building are essential. By responsibly harnessing the power of ML and AI, we can take significant steps towards creating healthier and more equitable futures across the life course.

Lifetime alcohol consumption patterns and young-onset breast cancer by subtype among Non-Hispanic Black and White women in the Young Women's Health History Study.

PURPOSE: The role of alcohol in young-onset breast cancer (YOBC) is unclear. We examined associations between lifetime alcohol consumption and YOBC in the Young Women's Health History Study, a population-based case-control study of breast cancer among Non-Hispanic Black and White women < 50 years of age. METHODS: Breast cancer cases (n = 1,812) were diagnosed in the Metropolitan Detroit and Los Angeles County SEER registry areas, 2010-2015. Controls (n = 1,381) were identified through area-based sampling and were frequency-matched to cases by age, site, and race. Alcohol consumption and covariates were collected from in-person interviews. Weighted multivariable logistic regression was conducted to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between alcohol consumption and YOBC overall and by subtype (Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2, or triple negative). RESULTS: Lifetime alcohol consumption was not associated with YOBC overall or with subtypes (all ptrend ≥ 0.13). Similarly, alcohol consumption in adolescence, young and middle adulthood was not associated with YOBC (all ptrend ≥ 0.09). An inverse association with triple-negative YOBC, however, was observed for younger age at alcohol use initiation (< 18 years vs. no consumption), aOR (95% CI) = 0.62 (0.42, 0.93). No evidence of statistical interaction by race or household poverty was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest alcohol consumption has a different association with YOBC than postmenopausal breast cancer-lifetime consumption was not linked to increased risk and younger age at alcohol use initiation was associated with a decreased risk of triple-negative YOBC. Future studies on alcohol consumption in YOBC subtypes are warranted.

Associations of Abnormal Maternal Glucose Regulation in Pregnancy with Offspring Adiposity, Insulin Resistance, and Adipokine Markers During Childhood and Adolescence.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of abnormal maternal glucose regulation in pregnancy with offspring adiposity, insulin resistance, adipokine, and inflammatory markers during childhood and adolescence. STUDY DESIGN: Project Viva is a prospective prebirth cohort (n = 2128 live births) initiated from 1999 through 2002 in Eastern Massachusetts, US. During the second trimester of pregnancy, clinicians used 2-step oral glucose challenge testing to screen for gestational diabetes mellitus. In the offspring, we measured anthropometry, insulin resistance, adipokines, lipids, and inflammatory markers in mid-childhood (n = 1107), early adolescence (n = 1027), and mid-adolescence (n = 693). We used multivariable linear regression models and generalized estimating equations adjusted for child age and sex, and for maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, parity, and smoking during pregnancy; we further adjusted for prepregnancy body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: In mid-adolescence (17.1 [0.8] years of age), offspring of mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 27) had a higher BMI z-score (ß; 95% Cl; 0.41 SD; 0.00, 0.82), sum of skinfolds (8.15 mm; 2.48, 13.82), homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (0.81 units; 0.13, 1.50), leptin z-score (0.40 SD; 0.01, 0.78), and leptin/adiponectin ratio z-score (0.51 SD; CI 0.09, 0.93) compared with offspring of mothers with normoglycemia (multivariable-adjusted models). The associations with BMI, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance, and adiponectin seemed stronger in mid-adolescence compared with earlier time points. The associations were attenuated toward the null after adjustment for maternal prepregnancy BMI. CONCLUSION: Exposure to gestational diabetes mellitus is associated with higher adiposity, insulin resistance, and altered adipokines in mid-adolescence. Our findings suggest that the peripubertal period could be a key time for the emergence of prenatally programmed metabolic abnormalities.

Duration of Simultaneous Exposure to High-Risk and Lower-Risk Nephrotoxic Antimicrobials in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) and Future Adolescent Kidney Health.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether greater duration of simultaneous exposure to antimicrobials with high nephrotoxicity risk combined with lower-risk antimicrobials (simultaneous exposure) in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) is associated with worse later kidney health in adolescents born preterm with very low birth weight (VLBW). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of participants born preterm with VLBW (<1500 g) as singletons between January 1, 1992, and June 30, 1996. We defined simultaneous exposure as a high-risk antimicrobial, such as vancomycin, administered with a lower-risk antimicrobial on the same date in the NICU. Outcomes were serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and first-morning urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) at age 14 years. We fit multivariable linear regression models with days of simultaneous exposure and days of nonsimultaneous exposure as main effects, adjusting for gestational age, birth weight, and birth weight z-score. RESULTS: Of the 147 out of 177 participants who had exposure data, 97% received simultaneous antimicrobials for mean duration 7.2 days (SD 5.6). No participant had eGFR <90 ml/min/1.73 m2. The mean ACR was 15.2 mg/g (SD 38.7) and 7% had albuminuria (ACR >30 mg/g). Each day of simultaneous exposure was associated only with a 1.04-mg/g higher ACR (95% CI 1.01 to 1.06). CONCLUSIONS: Despite frequent simultaneous exposure to high-risk combined with lower-risk nephrotoxic antimicrobials in the NICU, there were no clinically relevant associations with worse kidney health identified in adolescence. Although future studies are needed, these findings may provide reassurance in a population thought to be at increased risk of chronic kidney disease.

Embryonic size and growth and adverse birth outcomes: the Rotterdam Periconception Cohort.

STUDY QUESTION: Is early embryonic size and growth in the first trimester of pregnancy associated with adverse birth outcomes? SUMMARY ANSWER: Larger embryonic crown-rump length (CRL) and embryonic volume (EV) are associated with lower odds of adverse birth outcomes, especially small for gestational age (SGA). WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Preterm birth, SGA, and congenital anomalies are the most prevalent adverse birth outcomes with lifelong health consequences as well as high medical and societal costs. In the late first and second trimesters of pregnancy, fetuses at risk for adverse birth outcomes can be identified using 2-dimensional ultrasonography (US). STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Between 2009 and 2018, singleton pregnancies were enrolled in this ongoing prospective Rotterdam Periconception Cohort. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: This study included 918 pregnant women from a tertiary hospital in the Netherlands. Pregnancy dating was based on either a regular menstrual cycle (for natural pregnancies) or a conception date (for ART pregnancies). CRL and EV were measured using Virtual Reality software on 3-dimensional (3D) ultrasound scans, repeatedly performed around 7, 9, and 11 weeks of gestation. The main outcome measure was adverse birth outcome, defined as the composite of SGA (birth weight <10th percentile), preterm birth (<37th week of gestation), congenital anomalies (Eurocat criteria), stillbirth (>16th week of pregnancy), or early neonatal mortality (≤7 days of life). Reference curves for CRL and EV were constructed. Cross-sectional (CRL/EV <20th percentile at 7, 9, and 11 weeks of gestation) and longitudinal (CRL/EV growth trajectories between 6th and 13th weeks) regression analyses were performed, with adjustments for the participants' educational level, smoking, parity, age, BMI, geographical background, mode of conception, and fetal sex. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 918 pregnant women included, the median age was 32.3 years, and 404 (44%) pregnancies had been conceived via ART. In 199 (22%) pregnancies, there was an adverse birth outcome. Regression analyses showed that at 7 weeks of gestation onwards, embryos with a CRL <20th percentile had an ∼2-fold increased odds of adverse birth outcome (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.03, 95% CI 1.21-3.39, P = 0.007). Similar associations were found for EV <20th percentile but were not statistically significant. These findings were mainly driven by the strong association between embryonic size and SGA (e.g. 7-week CRL: aOR 2.18 (1.16-4.09), P = 0.02; 9-week EV: aOR 2.09 (1.10-3.97, P = 0.02). Longitudinal growth trajectories of CRL, but not of EV, were associated with adverse birth outcomes. Both CRL and EV growth trajectories were associated with SGA. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The tertiary hospital population and the availability of sophisticated 3D-ultrasound techniques limit the generalizability of this study to general populations and settings. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Already very early in the first trimester of pregnancy, embryos with increased risks of an adverse birth outcome can be identified by using 3D-US and Virtual Reality. This expands the window of opportunity to enable the development of future interventions to potentially improve pregnancy outcomes and offspring health during their life-course. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was funded by the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. The authors declare no conflicts of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NL4115.

Depressive symptoms in adolescence and adult educational and employment outcomes: a structured life course analysis.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common mental health disorder that often starts during adolescence, with potentially important future consequences including 'Not in Education, Employment or Training' (NEET) status. METHODS: We took a structured life course modeling approach to examine how depressive symptoms during adolescence might be associated with later NEET status, using a high-quality longitudinal data resource. We considered four plausible life course models: (1) an early adolescent sensitive period model where depressive symptoms in early adolescence are more associated with later NEET status relative to exposure at other stages; (2) a mid adolescent sensitive period model where depressive symptoms during the transition from compulsory education to adult life might be more deleterious regarding NEET status; (3) a late adolescent sensitive period model, meaning that depressive symptoms around the time when most adults have completed their education and started their careers are the most strongly associated with NEET status; and (4) an accumulation of risk model which highlights the importance of chronicity of symptoms. RESULTS: Our analysis sample included participants with full information on NEET status (N = 3951), and the results supported the accumulation of risk model, showing that the odds of NEET increase by 1.015 (95% CI 1.012-1.019) for an increase of 1 unit in depression at any age between 11 and 24 years. CONCLUSIONS: Given the adverse implications of NEET status, our results emphasize the importance of supporting mental health during adolescence and early adulthood, as well as considering specific needs of young people with re-occurring depressed mood.

Early life stress in relation with risk of overweight, depression, and their comorbidity across adulthood: findings from a British birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, known as the co-occurrence of at least two chronic conditions, has become of increasing concern in the current context of ageing populations, though it affects all ages. Early life risk factors of multimorbidity include adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), particularly associated with psychological conditions and weight problems. Few studies have considered related mechanisms and focus on old age participants. We are interested in estimating, from young adulthood, the risk of overweight-depression comorbidity related to ACEs while adjusting for early life confounders and intermediate variables. METHODS: We used data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, a prospective birth cohort study (N = 18 558). A four-category outcome (no condition, overweight only, depression only and, overweight-depression comorbidity) was constructed at 23, 33, and 42 years. Multinomial logistic regression models adjusting for intermediate variables co-occurring with this outcome were created. ACEs and sex interaction on comorbidity risk was tested. RESULTS: In our study sample (N = 7762), we found that ACEs were associated with overweight-depression comorbidity risk throughout adulthood (RRR [95% CI] at 23y = 3.80 [2.10-6.88]) though less overtime. Comorbidity risk was larger than risk of separate conditions. Intermediate variables explained part of the association. After full-adjustment, an association remained (RRR [95% CI] at 23y = 2.00 [1.08-3.72]). Comorbidity risk related to ACEs differed by sex at 42. CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence on the link and potential mechanisms between ACEs and the co-occurrence of mental and physical diseases throughout the life-course. We suggest addressing ACEs in intervention strategies and public policies to go beyond single disease prevention.

Heterogeneity in glycaemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes: A latent class trajectory analysis of Danish nationwide data.

AIMS: Suboptimal glycaemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes is prevalent and associated with increased risk of diabetes-related complications and mortality later in life. First, we aimed to identify distinct glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories in children and adolescents (2-19 years) with type 1 diabetes. Second, we examined their associations with clinical and socio-demographic factors. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Danish Registry of Childhood and Adolescent Diabetes (DanDiabKids) comprising all Danish children and adolescents diagnosed with type 1 diabetes from 1996 to 2019. Subgroups of distinct mean trajectories of HbA1c were identified using data-driven latent class trajectory modelling. RESULTS: A total of 5889 children (47% female) had HbA1c measured a median of 6 times (interquartile range 3-8) and contributing to 36,504 measurements. We identified four mean HbA1c trajectories, referred to as 'Stable but elevated HbA1c' (83%), 'Increasing HbA1c' (5%), 'Late HbA1c peak' (7%), and 'Early HbA1c peak' (5%). Compared to the 'Stable but elevated HbA1c' group, the three other groups presented rapidly deteriorating glycaemic control during late childhood or adolescence, had higher HbA1c at study entry, and included fewer pump users, higher frequency of inadequate blood glucose monitoring, more severe hypoglycaemic events, lower proportions with Danish origin, and worse educational status of parents. The groups also represented significant differences by healthcare region. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes experience heterogenous trajectories with different timings and magnitudes of the deterioration of HbA1c levels, although the majority follow on average a stable, yet elevated HbA1c trajectory. The causes and long-term health implications of these heterogenous trajectories need to be addressed.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Subsequent Risks of Diabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases: the Life Course Perspective and Implications of Racial Disparities.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the most common pregnancy complications worldwide and the prevalence is continuously rising globally. Importantly, GDM is not an isolated complication of pregnancy. Growing evidence suggests that individuals with GDM, compared to those without GDM, have an increased risk of subsequent type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Substantial racial and ethnic disparities exist in the risk of GDM. However, the role of race and ethnicity in the progression from GDM to T2D and CVD remains unclear. The purpose of the current review is to summarize recent research about GDM and its life-course impacts on cardiometabolic health, including 1) the peak time of developing T2D and CVD risks after GDM, 2) the racial and ethnic disparities in the risk cardiometabolic diseases after GDM, 3) the biological plausibility and underlying mechanisms, and 4) recommendations for screening and prevention of cardiometabolic diseases among individuals with GDM, collectively to provide an updated review to guide future research. RECENT FINDINGS: Growing evidence has indicated that individuals with GDM had greater risks of T2D (7.4 to 9.6 times), hypertension (78% higher), and CDV events (74% higher) after GDM than their non-GDM counterparts. More recently, a few studies also suggested that GDM could slightly increase the risk of mortality. Available evidence suggests that key CVD risk factors such as blood pressure, plasma glucose, and lipids levels are all elevated as early as < 1 year postpartum in individuals with GDM. The risk of T2D and hypertension is likely to reach a peak between 3-6 years after the index pregnancy with GDM compared to normal glycemia pregnancy. Cumulative evidence also suggests that the risk of cardiometabolic diseases including T2D, hypertension, and CVD events after GDM varies by race and ethnicity. However, whether the risk is higher in certain racial and ethnic groups and whether the pattern may vary by the postpartum cardiometabolic outcome of interest remain unclear. The underlying mechanisms linking GDM and subsequent T2D and CVD are complex, often involving multiple pathways and their interactions, with the specific mechanisms varying by individuals of different racial and ethnic backgrounds. Diabetes and CVD risk screening among individuals with GDM should be initiated early during postpartum and continue, if possible, frequently. Unfortunately, adherence to postpartum glucose testing with either obstetrician or primary care providers remained poor among individuals with GDM. A life-course perspective may provide critical information to address clinical and public health gaps in postpartum screening and interventions for preventing T2D and CVD risks in individuals with GDM. Future research investigating the racial- and ethnic-specific risk of progression from GDM to cardiometabolic diseases and the role of multi-domain factors including lifestyle, biological, and socio-contextual factors are warranted to inform tailored and culture-appropriate interventions for high-risk subpopulations. Further, examining the barriers to postpartum glucose testing among individuals with GDM is crucial for the effective prevention of cardiometabolic diseases and for enhancing life-long health.

Life course predictors of child emotional distress during the COVID-19 pandemic: Findings from a prospective intergenerational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We examine precursors of child emotional distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in a prospective intergenerational Australian cohort study. METHODS: Parents (N = 549, 60% mothers) of 934 1-9-year-old children completed a COVID-19 specific module in 2020 and/or 2021. Decades prior, a broad range of individual, relational and contextual factors were assessed during parents' own childhood, adolescence and young adulthood (7-8 to 27-28 years old; 1990-2010) and again when their children were 1 year old (2012-2019). RESULTS: After controlling for pre-pandemic socio-emotional behaviour problems, COVID-19 child emotional distress was associated with a range of pre-pandemic parental life course factors including internalising difficulties, lower conscientiousness, social skills problems, poorer relational health and lower trust and tolerance. Additionally, in the postpartum period, pre-pandemic parental internalising difficulties, lower parental warmth, lower cooperation and fewer behavioural competencies predicted child COVID-19 emotional distress. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight the importance of taking a larger, intergenerational perspective to better equip young populations for future adversities. This involves not only investing in child, adolescent, and young adult emotional and relational health, but also in parents raising young families.

PrEP Method Switching: Will it Yield Greater Coverage of HIV Protection? Applying Lessons Learned from Family Planning to Guide Future Research in the Context of PrEP Choice.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Despite the growing availability of oral PrEP, coverage remains suboptimal. Through the introduction of additional PrEP methods, including vaginal rings and long-acting injectable formulations, health systems globally are on the cusp of offering PrEP methods that vary by route of administration, efficacy, and frequency of use. With PrEP choice, it will be important to explore PrEP use patterns to better understand how the ability to choose and switch products affects coverage and continuation. In this review, we draw parallels with family planning (FP) by summarizing how method choice and product switching affected contraceptive coverage globally, synthesize what is known about PrEP product switching, and outline evidence gaps to help guide future research on PrEP switching in the context of choice. RECENT FINDINGS: Decades of research in FP has demonstrated that product switching is common and can lead to more satisfaction and increases in contraceptive use. While research on PrEP product switching is nascent, findings suggest switching is common, and that providing more than one PrEP option can increase coverage. Key evidence gaps include understanding product switching in the context of full versus constrained choice, switching in the context of temporary need, and developing interventions that promote product switching for those who could benefit. Providing choice and allowing people to start, stop, and switch products according to their needs and desires is a core component of a rights-based approach to HIV prevention. More research is needed to better understand what drives use patterns, including switching, and how to leverage choice to improve coverage. Standard definitions -some of which have been proposed in this review-are needed to inform comparable measurement. Finally, there is a need to holistically frame PrEP use to acknowledge changes in need over the life course, thus making method switching a standard part of HIV prevention.