Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline.

BACKGROUND: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858. RESULTS: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.

Workforce estimate to treat mental disorders in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Mental, neurological, and substance abuse (MNS) disorders describe a range of conditions that affect the brain and cause distress or functional impairment. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), MNS disorders make up 10.88 percent of the burden of disease as measured in disability-adjusted life years. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is one of the main providers of mental health services and one of the largest contributors to mental health research in the region. Within the past decade, mental health resources and services has increased. METHODS: We employ a needs-based workforce estimate as a planning exercise to arrive at the total number of psychiatrists, nurses, and psychosocial care providers needed to meet the epidemiological need of mental health conditions of the population of KSA. Estimates for a potential mental health workforce gap were calculated using five steps: Step 1-Quantify target population for priority mental health conditions. Step 2-Identify number of expected cases per year. Step 3-Set target service coverage for each condition. Step 4-Estimate cost-effective health care service resource utilization for each condition. Step 5-Estimate service resources needed for each condition. RESULTS: The planning exercise indicates an epidemiologic need for a total of 17,100 full-time-equivalent (FTE) health care providers to treat priority MNS disorders. KSA appears to have a need-based shortage of 10,400 health workers to treat mental disorders. A total of 100 psychiatrists, 5700 nurses, and 4500 psychosocial care providers would be additionally needed (that is, above and beyond current levels) to address the priority mental health conditions. The shortfall is particularly severe for nurses and psychosocial workers who make up 98.9 percent of the shortfall. This shortage is substantial when compared to other high-income countries. Overall, the workforce needed to treat MNS conditions translates to 49.2 health workers per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Challenges to addressing the shortfall are Saudi specific which includes awareness of cultural customs and norms in the medical setting. These challenges are compounded by the lack of Saudi nationals in the mental health workforce. Saudi nationals make up 29.5 percent of the physician workforce and 38.8 percent of the nursing workforce. Policymakers and planners supplement this shortfall with non-Saudi providers, who must be mindful of Saudi-specific cultural considerations. Potential solutions to reducing the shortfall of mental health care workers includes nurse task shifting and training of general practitioners to screen for, and treat, a subset of MNS disorders.

The UK prosthetic and orthotic workforce: current status and implications for the future.

BACKGROUND: Prosthetists and orthotists (POs) are the smallest of the 14 allied health profession (AHP) workforces within NHS England. Obtaining data on the workforce has always been challenging due to this information being held across different organisations. An understanding of the prosthetic and orthotic (P&O) workforce is essential to ensure that it is adequately equipped to meet the evolving needs of users of P&O services. The study aims to estimate the size and composition, for the first time, of the UK P&O workforce and P&O service provision. METHODS: To gather the required information, two surveys (one for the UK P&O workforce and one for UK P&O private company) and two freedom of information (FOI) requests [one for all NHS Trusts and Health Boards (HB) in the UK and one for the higher education institutes in the UK offering programmes leading to registration as a PO were developed and distributed from September to December 2022. RESULTS: The P&O workforce survey received a 74% response rate (863 POs) and 25 private companies reported employing one or more P&O staffing groups. From the FOI requests, 181 of a potential 194 Trusts/Health Boards and all four higher education institutions responded. The study indicated a total of 1766 people in the UK P&O workforce, with orthotists and orthotic technicians representing the largest percentage of the workforce at 32% and 30%, respectively. A greater percentage of prosthetists (65%) and orthotists (57%) were employed by private companies compared to the NHS. Only 34% of POs stated that they "definitely" planned to remain in the workforce for the next 5 years. The current UK PO employment levels are 142 to 477 short of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) recommendation. CONCLUSIONS: The low job satisfaction amongst many POs and the projected increase in the number of people who will require prosthetic and/or orthotic care in the UK are challenges for future UK P&O services. Strategies are required to create a sustainable and resilient workforce that can meet the needs of a changing healthcare landscape.

Burnout among public health workers in Canada: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: This study presents the prevalence of burnout among the Canadian public health workforce after three years of the COVID-19 pandemic and its association with work-related factors. METHODS: Data were collected using an online survey distributed through Canadian public health associations and professional networks between November 2022 and January 2023. Burnout was measured using a modified version of the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory (OLBI). Logistic regressions were used to model the relationship between burnout and work-related factors including years of work experience, redeployment to pandemic response, workplace safety and supports, and harassment. Burnout and the intention to leave or retire as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic was explored using multinomial logistic regressions. RESULTS: In 2,079 participants who completed the OLBI, the prevalence of burnout was 78.7%. Additionally, 49.1% of participants reported being harassed because of their work during the pandemic. Burnout was positively associated with years of work experience, redeployment to the pandemic response, being harassed during the pandemic, feeling unsafe in the workplace and not being offered workplace supports. Furthermore, burnout was associated with greater odds of intending to leave public health or retire earlier than anticipated. CONCLUSION: The high levels of burnout among our large sample of Canadian public health workers and its association with work-related factors suggest that public health organizations should consider interventions that mitigate burnout and promote recovery.

Simulating the healthcare workforce impact and capacity for pancreatic cancer care in Victoria: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of pancreatic cancer is rising. With improvements in knowledge for screening and early detection, earlier detection of pancreatic cancer will continue to be more common. To support workforce planning, our aim is to perform a model-based analysis that simulates the potential impact on the healthcare workforce, assuming an earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to estimate the demand (i.e. new cases of pancreatic cancer) and supply (i.e. the healthcare workforce including general surgeons, medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pain medicine physicians, and palliative care physicians) between 2023 and 2027 in Victoria, Australia. The model compares the current scenario to one in which pancreatic cancer is diagnosed at an earlier stage. The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Victoria, five-year survival rates, and Victoria's population size were obtained from Victorian Cancer Registry, Cancer Council NSW, and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively. The healthcare workforce data were sourced from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care's Health Workforce Data. The model was constructed at the remoteness level. We analysed the new cases and the number of healthcare workforce by profession together to assess the impact on the healthcare workforce. RESULTS: In the status quo, over the next five years, there will be 198 to 220 stages I-II, 297 to 330 stage III, and 495 to 550 stage IV pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed annually, respectively. Assuming 20-70% of the shift towards pancreatic cancer's earlier diagnosis (shifting from stage IV to stages I-II pancreatic cancer within one year), the stages I-II cases could increase to 351 to 390 or 598 to 665 per year. The shift to early diagnosis led to substantial survival gains, translating into an additional 284 or 795 out of 5246 patients with pancreatic cancer remaining alive up to year 5 post-diagnosis. Workforce supply decreases significantly by the remoteness levels, and remote areas face a shortage of key medical professionals registered in delivering pancreatic cancer care, suggesting travel necessities by patients or clinicians. CONCLUSION: Improving the early detection and diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is expected to bring significant survival benefits, although there are workforce distribution imbalances in Victoria that may affect the ability to achieve the anticipated survival gain.

Workforce strategies during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective online survey at intensive care units in Germany.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the globe at the beginning of 2020, healthcare systems were forced to rapidly adapt and expand to meet the sudden surge in demand for intensive care services. This study is the first systematic analysis of the strategies employed by German hospitals to recruit personnel and expand bed capacities during the first wave of the pandemic, and to evaluate the effectiveness of those recruitment measures. METHODS: 152 German hospitals with intensive care capacities were selected and invited to participate in an online-based retrospective survey. Factors like the geographic distribution, individual COVID burden and level of care were considered for inclusion in the sample. The data were analyzed descriptively. RESULTS: A total of 41 hospitals participated in the survey. The additional demand for intensive care beds was met primarily by activating intensive care beds that were previously considered as non-operational in existing intensive care units (81% of respondents) and by upgrading recovery rooms (73%). The physician staffing requirements were met at approximately 75%, while the nursing staffing requirements were only met by about 45%. Staffing needs were met through reallocations/transfers (85%), staff recruitment from parental leave or retirement (49%), increased hours worked by internal staff (49%), new staff hiring (44%) and increased use of temporary staff (32%). Staff reallocations/transfers to critical care within a hospital were rated as the most effective measure. In this context, specialized personnel mostly from anesthesiology departments were appointed to intensive care medicine. CONCLUSIONS: Despite multiple recruitment efforts, the pandemic has exacerbated the nursing staff shortage. The reallocation of existing staff within hospitals was a key element in covering the staffing needs. However, additional measures and efforts are required in order to ensure that critically ill patients can be cared for without compromise. The results of this study may have important implications for healthcare providers and policymakers, offering an evidence-based foundation for responding to future public health emergencies with agility, efficiency, and success.

Evaluating neurosurgical training: a national survey examining the British trainee experience.

PURPOSE: Neurosurgery training in the UK has undergone significant changes over the past few years, including the new competency-based curriculum and a reduction of elective operating due to the pandemic. We conducted a comprehensive survey to assess UK neurosurgical trainees' experiences and perceptions to develop targeted action plans. METHODS: An online anonymised survey was developed and distributed amongst the BNTA mailing list. Question types included 10-point Likert scales and free text options. Descriptive statistics, non-parametric testing of Likert scores, and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyse responses. Pearson's chi-squared test was used for subgroup analysis of categorical data. RESULTS: A total of 75 trainees with a National Training Number (NTN) responded. Overall trainees feel they are well trained, well supported, and have caught up with training emerging out of COVID. Funding for training varied between deaneries. There is significant concern amongst trainees regarding the workforce crisis. This, as well as financial concerns are leading to more than a quarter of trainees considering quitting. Half of the trainees are considering going OOP. More than one third of the trainees and more than half of the female trainees are considering working Less Than Full Time (LTFT). Most important supportive mechanisms towards completion of training were social support, along with personal satisfaction from work. An independent mentoring scheme is a preferred additional support mechanism. CONCLUSIONS: Overall training experience for neurosurgery trainees in UK and Ireland was positive. There are significant concerns regarding the workforce crisis and costs of training, with a large proportion of neurosurgery trainees considering resigning. OOP and LTFT are popular means of becoming more competitive for consultant posts and to spend time with their families. Deanery experience, senior and peer support does, and will improve trainee experience and protect against attrition.

The Otolaryngology Consultant Workforce in England: A Survey Update and Future Repercussions.

INTRODUCTION: Effective medical staffing is pivotal for a successful healthcare system, demanding strategic planning to ensure a high-quality service. Although the UK's doctor to population ratio has improved over time, it remains below global averages. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated existing challenges, resulting in an unprecedented NHS waiting list with Ear, Nose, and Throat (ENT) surgeries ranking third highest in waiting times amongst all specialties. METHODS: This study utilized a national jotform survey to gather data from ENTUK members, primarily focusing on consultant staffing within ENT departments across the UK. Additional information collected encompassed registration status, part-time roles, gender, vacancies, locum roles, associate specialists, registrars and other junior doctors, and advanced nurse practitioners. When survey responses were inadequate, direct communication was established with departmental consultants or secretaries, followed by Freedom of Information requests as necessary. All data were compiled using Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: Among the 65 responses to the ENTUK survey, 53 individual trusts were identified. These included 41 English acute trusts, with supplementary participation from Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Data from 749 consultants across 115 English acute trusts were collected in combination with a Freedom of Information request. CONCLUSION: Despite an increased number of ENT consultants, the persistence of unfilled posts coincides with mounting waiting lists. The pandemic's effects, including early retirements and part-time roles, emphasise the urgency of expanding training positions to counterbalance these shifts. Local and national interventions are essential to fortify and diversify the ENT workforce through a variety of strategies.

The Australian health workforce: Disproportionate shortfalls in small rural towns.

INTRODUCTION: The distribution of health care workers differs greatly across Australia, which is likely to impact health delivery. OBJECTIVE: To examine demographic and workplace setting factors of doctors, nurses and midwives, and allied health professionals across Modified Monash Model (MMM) regions and identify factors associated with shortfalls in the health care workforce. DESIGN: Descriptive cross-sectional analysis. The study included all health professionals who were registered with the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency in 2021, and who were working in Australia in their registered profession. The study examined number of registrations and full-timed equivalent (FTE) registrations per MMM region classification, adjusted for population. Associated variables included age, gender, origin of qualification, Indigenous status and participation in the private or public (including government, non-government organisation and not-for-profit organisations) sectors. FINDINGS: Data were available for 31 221 general practitioners, 77 277 other doctors, 366 696 nurses and midwives, and 195 218 allied health professionals. The lowest FTE per 1000 people was seen in MM5 regions for general practitioners, other doctors, nurses and midwives, and allied health professionals. Demographic factors were mostly consistent across MM regions, although MM5 regions had a higher percentage of nurses and midwives and allied health professionals aged 55 and over. In the private sector, FTE per 1000 people was lowest in MM5-7 regions. In the public sector, FTE per 1000 people was lowest in MM5 regions. DISCUSSION: A disproportionate shortfall of health workers was seen in MM5 regions. This shortfall appears to be primarily due to low FTE per capita of private sector workers compared with MM1-4 regions and a low FTE per capita of public sector workers compared with MM6-7 regions. CONCLUSION: In Australia, small rural towns have the lowest number of health care workers per capita which is likely to lead to poor health outcomes for those regions.

Transforming health care delivery: The role of primary health care nurses in rural and remote Australia.

AIM: This paper describes the policy context and approaches taken to improve access to primary health care in Australia by supporting nurses to deliver improved integrated care meeting community needs. CONTEXT: In Primary Health Care (PHC), the nursing workforce are predominantly employed in the general practice sector. Despite evidence that nurse-led models of care can bridge traditional treatment silos in the provision of specialised and coordinated care, PHC nurses' scope of practice varies dramatically. Nurse-led models of care are imperative for rural and remote populations that experience workforce shortages and barriers to accessing health care. Existing barriers include policy constraints, limited organisational structures, education and financing models. APPROACH: The Australian Primary Health Care Nurses Association (APNA) received funding to implement nurse-led clinics as demonstration projects. The clinics enable PHC nurses to work to their full scope of practice, improve continuity of care and increase access to health care in under serviced locations. We reviewed a range of peer-reviewed literature, policy documents, grey literature and APNA provided sources, particularly those relevant to rural and remote populations. We argue more focus is needed on how to address variations in the scope of practice of the rural and remote PHC nursing workforce. CONCLUSION: Despite growing evidence for the effectiveness of nurse-led models of care, significant policy and financial barriers continue to inhibit PHC nurses working to their full scope of practice. If their potential to transform health care and increase access to health services is to be realised these barriers must be addressed.

Drivers and barriers of international migration of doctors to and from the United Kingdom: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Many high-income countries are heavily dependent on internationally trained doctors to staff their healthcare workforce. Over one-third of doctors practising in the UK received their primary medical qualification abroad. Simultaneously, an average of around 2.1% of doctors leave the UK medical workforce annually to go overseas. The aim of this study was to identify the drivers and barriers of international migration of doctors to and from the UK. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted. We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, ERIC and BEI in January 2020 (updated October 2021). Grey literature and citation searching were also carried out. Empirical studies reporting on the drivers and barriers to the international migration of doctors to and from the UK published in the English language from 2009 to present were included. The drivers and barriers were coded in NVivo 12 building on an existing framework. RESULTS: 40 studies were included. 62% were quantitative, 18% were qualitative, 15% were mixed-methods and 5% were literature reviews. Migration into and out of the UK is determined by a variety of macro- (global and national factors), meso- (profession led factors) and micro-level (personal factors). Interestingly, many of the key drivers of migration to the UK were also factors driving migration from the UK, including: poor working conditions, employment opportunities, better training and development opportunities, better quality of life, desire for a life change and financial reasons. The barriers included stricter immigration policies, the registration process and short-term job contracts. CONCLUSIONS: Our research contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive up-to-date review of the drivers and barriers of migration to and from the UK. The decision for a doctor to migrate is multi-layered and is a complex balance between push/pull at macro-/meso-/micro-levels. To sustain the UK's supply of overseas doctors, it is vital that migration policies take account of the drivers of migration particularly working conditions and active recruitment while addressing any potential barriers. Immigration policies to address the impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on the migration of doctors to and from the UK will be particularly important in the immediate future. Trial registration PROSPERO CRD42020165748.

Assessing needs-based supply of physicians: a criteria-led methodological review of international studies in high-resource settings.

BACKGROUND: Many health systems embrace the normative principle that the supply of health services ought to be based on the need for healthcare. However, a theoretically grounded framework to operationalize needs-based supply of healthcare remains elusive. The aim of this paper is to critically assess current methodologies that quantify needs-based supply of physicians and identify potential gaps in approaches for physician planning. To this end, we propose a set of criteria for consideration when estimating needs-based supply. METHODS: We conducted searches in three electronic bibliographic databases until March 2020 supplemented by targeted manual searches on national and international websites to identify studies in high-resource settings that quantify needs-based supply of physicians. Studies that exclusively focused on forecasting methods of physician supply, on inpatient care or on healthcare professionals other than physicians were excluded. Additionally, records that were not available in English or German were excluded to avoid translation errors. The results were synthesized using a framework of study characteristics in addition to the proposed criteria for estimating needs-based physician supply. RESULTS: 18 quantitative studies estimating population need for physicians were assessed against our criteria. No study met all criteria. Only six studies sought to examine the conceptual dependency between need, utilization and supply. Apart from extrapolations, simulation models were applied most frequently to estimate needs-based supply. 12 studies referred to the translation of need for services with respect to a physician's productivity, while the rest adapted existing population-provider-ratios. Prospective models for estimating future care needs were largely based on demographic predictions rather than estimated trends in morbidity and new forms of care delivery. CONCLUSIONS: The methodological review shows distinct heterogeneity in the conceptual frameworks, validity of data basis and modeling approaches of current studies in high-resource settings on needs-based supply of physicians. To support future estimates of needs-based supply, this review provides a workable framework for policymakers in charge of health workforce capacity planning.

Health workforce governance and professions: a re-analysis of New Zealand's primary care workforce policy actors.

BACKGROUND: This article contributes to the health workforce planning literature by exploring the dynamics of health professions in New Zealand's Primary Care sector and deriving broad lessons for an international audience. Professions tend influence health policy and governance decisions and practices to retain their place, status and influence. Therefore, understanding their power dynamics and the positions that they have on workforce policies and issues assists workforce governance or health system reform plans. METHODS: Using the infrequently reported health workforce policy tool, actor analysis, a reanalysis of previously collected data is undertaken using an actor-based framework for the study of professionalism. Two models were developed, (1) the framework's original four-actor model and (2) a five-actor model for the comparison of the Medical and Nurse professions. Existing workforce actor data were reclassified, formatted, and entered into actor analysis software to reveal the professions' relative power, inter-relationships and strategic workforce issue positions. RESULTS: In the four-actor model, the Organised user actor is found to be most influential, while the others are found to be dependent. In the five-actor model, the Medical and Nurse professions are individually more influential than their combined position in the four-actor model. Practicing professionals and Organised user actors have strong converging inter-relationships over workforce issues in both models, though in the five-actor model, the Nurse profession has weaker coherency than the Medical profession. The Medical and Nurse professions are found to be in opposition over the workforce issues labelled divisive. CONCLUSIONS: These results reflect the professions' potential to influence New Zealand's Primary Care sector, indicating their power and influence over a range of policy and reform measures. As such, the four lessons that are derived from the case indicate to policy makers that they should be aware of situational contexts and actor power, take care when encountering divisive issues and try to achieve broad-based support for proposed policies.

A nationwide initiative to increase nursing and midwifery research leadership: overview of year one programme development, implementation and evaluation.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To report on the development, implementation and evaluation of the first year of the National Institute for Health Research 70@70 Senior Nurse Research Leader Programme. BACKGROUND: Internationally, there is a lack of nursing and midwifery research and policy contribution to healthcare sectors. To address this, funding was obtained for a Senior Nurse and Midwife Research Leader Programme in England. The programme aimed to increase nursing and midwifery research capacity and capability and support the development of future research leaders. DESIGN: The programme had three phases: development, implementation and evaluation. The cohort study's evaluation phase consisted of a survey and qualitative written feedback. METHODS: An online survey was sent to cohort members (n = 66). Quantitative survey data was analysed in Survey Monkey. Written feedback asked cohort members to summarise their activities and any challenges. Data were thematically analysed. The "Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology" reporting checklist was used. RESULTS: Thirty-nine (59%) cohort members responded to the survey. Responders valued being part of a network (46%), having protected time (22%) and having workplace autonomy (13%). Challenges reported included difficulties accessing online resources (32%), lack of collaborative opportunities (17%) and organisational barriers (10%). Fifty-six (85%) cohort members submitted the written report. The main themes were "relationship and profile building", "developing capability and capacity", "developing the workforce", "patient and public involvement and engagement" and "quality improvement." CONCLUSIONS: The 70@70 programme has increased the research profile of the nursing and midwifery professions at a local and national level. International healthcare systems can learn from this, by considering optimal ways to provide nurses and midwives with the tools, resources and confidence to actively contribute to research policy and practice. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: The initiatives undertaken through year 1 of the programme have created a platform through which research can be incorporated into clinical practice, education and teaching.

Is separating obstetrics from gynaecology the way forward? A UK perspective.

A recent editorial in this Journal argued that increasing surgical complexity coupled with more limited training calls for separating obstetrics from gynaecology. The speciality suffers manpower challenges and high attrition rates. There is an apparent gulf in approach between researchers focussing on the views of UK graduates or trainees and workforce planners who address the problem through overseas recruitment. Whilst available literature provides scant, if any, indication as to how to address current challenges, it is important that advocates for women's health assess and mitigate potential drawbacks when exploring the way forward.

An automated protocol for assessing career rurality outcomes of Australian health professionals using retrospective data.

INTRODUCTION: Addressing the imbalance of the health workforce between metropolitan and rural areas requires a clear understanding of trends in choices of work location of health care staff. OBJECTIVE: Here, we provide an automated and highly reproducible protocol to examine the location of health care workers over multiple years using medical graduates as a case study. DESIGN: Data linkage cohort study. The study cohort examined was University of Wollongong Medical graduates from 2010 to 2021 who were registered to practice in Australia. The main outcome measure was graduate location of practice in Modified Monash regsions MM1 or MM2-7 across multiple postgraduate years. This protocol used R Markdown. FINDINGS: An automated and reproducible protocol was used to analyse choices of work location for the University of Wollongong's medical graduates. Over 90% of graduates were registered with AHPRA. Around 25%-30% of graduates were found to work in MM2-7 regions across their careers, exceeding the national average. DISCUSSION: The protocol presented allows for a fast and reproducible analysis of work location by region for health care workers. This will allow comparisons of outcomes between universities or health professions.

Rural origin student representation in health courses at the University of Tasmania: 2011-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To describe longitudinal trends in the admission and completion of domestic Tasmanian rural origin students in health courses at the University of Tasmania (UTAS). METHODS: A retrospective audit of records for all domestic Tasmanian students admitted to, or who completed a health course offered by UTAS between 2011 and 2020 was conducted. Data extracted from student records included gender, age, Indigenous background, rural origin (based on residential address outside of Launceston or Hobart at the time of application), health discipline, year of admission and/or completion. Data were analysed in STATA. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2020, 7516 domestic Tasmanian students were admitted to health courses at UTAS, of which 22.6% were rural origin (vs. a rural population of 36.7%). Students admitted were mostly female (77.0%) and studying nursing (51.1%). Rural origin students were more likely to study at the regional campus in Launceston than in Hobart, the capital city (OR, 3.79 [3.4-4.3, p < 0.00]). Over this same period, 5086 students completed a health course. There was little difference in completion rates among regional vs. rural origin students (OR, 1.04 [1.0-1.1, p < 0.00]); however, completion rates decreased with increasing remoteness. Indigenous and male students were less likely to complete than non-Indigenous (OR, 0.73 [0.7-0.8, p < 0.05]) and female students (OR, 0.97 [1.0-1.0, p < 0.05]) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Tasmanian rural origin students are admitted to a range of health courses at UTAS and many complete. However, additional measures are needed to attract a greater number of local rural origin students to study health courses and to support them through to course completion.

Ambient intelligence-based monitoring of staff and patient activity in the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Caregiver workload in the ICU setting is difficult to numerically quantify. Ambient Intelligence utilises computer vision-guided neural networks to continuously monitor multiple datapoints in video feeds, has become increasingly efficient at automatically tracking various aspects of human movement. OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility of using Ambient Intelligence to track and quantify allpatient and caregiver activity within a bedspace over the course of an ICU admission and also to establish patient specific factors, and environmental factors such as time ofday, that might contribute to an increased workload in ICU workers. METHODS: 5000 images were manually annotated and then used to train You Only LookOnce (YOLOv4), an open-source computer vision algorithm. Comparison of patientmotion and caregiver activity was then performed between these patients. RESULTS: The algorithm was deployed on 14 patients comprising 1762800 framesof new, untrained data. There was a strong correlation between the number ofcaregivers in the room and the standardized movement of the patient (p < 0.0001) withmore caregivers associated with more movement. There was a significant difference incaregiver activity throughout the day (p < 0.05), HDU vs. ICU status (p < 0.05), delirious vs. non delirious patients (p < 0.05), and intubated vs. not intubated patients(p < 0.05). Caregiver activity was lowest between 0400 and 0800 (average .71 ± .026caregivers per hour) with statistically significant differences in activity compared to 0800-2400 (p < 0.05). Caregiver activity was highest between 1200 and 1600 (1.02 ± .031 caregivers per hour) with a statistically significant difference in activity comparedto activity from 1600 to 0800 (p < 0.05). The three most dominant predictors of workeractivity were patient motion (Standardized Dominance 78.6%), Mechanical Ventilation(Standardized Dominance 7.9%) and Delirium (Standardized Dominance 6.2%). CONCLUSION: Ambient Intelligence could potentially be used to derive a single standardized metricthat could be applied to patients to illustrate their overall workload. This could be usedto predict workflow demands for better staff deployment, monitoring of caregiver workload, and potentially as a tool to predict burnout.

Adaptability on Shifting Ground: a Rapid Qualitative Assessment of Multi-institutional Inpatient Surge Planning and Workforce Deployment During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the initial wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations, care delivery and workforce adaptations were rapidly implemented. In response to subsequent surges of patients, institutions have deployed, modified, and/or discontinued their workforce plans. OBJECTIVE: Using rapid qualitative methods, we sought to explore hospitalists' experiences with workforce deployment, types of clinicians deployed, and challenges encountered with subsequent iterations of surge planning during the COVID-19 pandemic across a collaborative of hospital medicine groups. APPROACH: Using rapid qualitative methods, focus groups were conducted in partnership with the Hospital Medicine Reengineering Network (HOMERuN). We interviewed physicians, advanced practice providers (APP), and physician researchers about (1) ongoing adaptations to the workforce as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) current struggles with workforce planning, and (3) evolution of workforce planning. KEY RESULTS: We conducted five focus groups with 33 individuals from 24 institutions, representing 52% of HOMERuN sites. A variety of adaptations was described by participants, some common across institutions and others specific to the institution's location and context. Adaptations implemented shifted from the first waves of COVID patients to subsequent waves. Three global themes also emerged: (1) adaptability and comfort with dynamic change, (2) the importance of the unique hospitalist skillset for effective surge planning and redeployment, and (3) the lack of universal solutions. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital workforce adaptations to the COVID pandemic continued to evolve. While few approaches were universally effective in managing surges of patients, and successful adaptations were highly context dependent, the ability to navigate a complex system, adaptability, and comfort in a chaotic, dynamic environment were themes considered most critical to successful surge management. However, resource constraints and sustained high workload levels raised issues of burnout.

Managing capacity for urgent surgery: staffing, staff scheduling in-house or on-call from home, and work assignments.

Parmar and colleagues developed and validated a graphical method for choosing the number of operating theatres to set aside for urgent surgical cases. We address appropriate usage of their new method for calculating anaesthesia staffing, including comparison with previously published techniques. Parmar and colleagues' method is based on all staff scheduled in-house, rather than some on-call from home. We review that this is not nearly as large a limitation as it may seem because of behavioural factors of staff assignment.