[Predicting risk of caries in schoolchildren from northwestern Mexico: longitudinal study]. / Predicción de riesgo de caries en escolares del noroeste de México: estudio longitudinal.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the caries risk through the Bratthall's Cariogram (BC) and the frequency of dental caries in a Mexican northwest children population for 12 months period. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cohort of 583 scholar children between 6 and 10 years old from Sinaloa state was involved for 12 months period (2007-2008). The Bratthall's Cariogram was used to predict caries risk and the. WHO's criteria were used to obtain the caries index. The caries risk association with clinical variables was analyzed by logistic regression analysis and Sperman's Rho rank correlation test was used to evaluate the correlation between DMFT index and BC. RESULTS: The caries risk increased with respect to age (p < 0.05), the CB identified correctly children for high risk (85%) and low risk (65%) caries for a 12 months period. The baseline values of BC showed a positive correlation with DMFT index (0.86 and p = 0.0001); the diagnostic test evaluation showed the following values positive predictive value of 87%, negative predictive value of 63%, sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 63%. CONCLUSIONS: The caries risk increased with the age in the studied population. The Bratthall's Cariogram is a useful screening test to evaluate the risk for dental caries at individual and population levels.