CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. RESULTS: The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. CONCLUSION: The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change.