On computer-intensive simulation and estimation methods for rare-event analysis in epidemic models.
Stat Med
; 34(28): 3696-713, 2015 Dec 10.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26242476
ABSTRACT
This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events that may possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of public health. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilities is available, and crude Monte Carlo procedures fail. We show how recent intensive computer simulation techniques, such as interacting branching particle methods, can be used for estimation purposes, as well as for generating model paths that correspond to realizations of such events. Applications of these simulation-based methods to several epidemic models fitted from real datasets are also considered and discussed thoroughly.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Simulación por Computador
/
Epidemias
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Stat Med
Año:
2015
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Francia