Misspecification in Latent Change Score Models: Consequences for Parameter Estimation, Model Evaluation, and Predicting Change.

ABSTRACT

Latent change score models (LCS) are conceptually powerful tools for analyzing longitudinal data (McArdle & Hamagami, 2001). However, applications of these models typically include constraints on key parameters over time. Although practically useful, strict invariance over time in these parameters is unlikely in real data. This study investigates the robustness of LCS when invariance over time is incorrectly imposed on key change-related parameters. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to explore the impact of misspecification on parameter estimation, predicted trajectories of change, and model fit in the dual change score model, the foundational LCS. When constraints were incorrectly applied, several parameters, most notably the slope (i.e., constant change) factor mean and autoproportion coefficient, were severely and consistently biased, as were regression paths to the slope factor when external predictors of change were included. Standard fit indices indicated that the misspecified models fit well, partly because mean level trajectories over time were accurately captured. Loosening constraint improved the accuracy of parameter estimates, but estimates were more unstable, and models frequently failed to converge. Results suggest that potentially common sources of misspecification in LCS can produce distorted impressions of developmental processes, and that identifying and rectifying the situation is a challenge.