Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 115(28): 7374-7379, 2018 07 10.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29941567
ABSTRACT
Disease models have provided conflicting evidence as to whether spatial heterogeneity promotes or impedes pathogen persistence. Moreover, there has been limited theoretical investigation into how animal movement behavior interacts with the spatial organization of resources (e.g., clustered, random, uniform) across a landscape to affect infectious disease dynamics. Importantly, spatial heterogeneity of resources can sometimes lead to nonlinear or counterintuitive outcomes depending on the host and pathogen system. There is a clear need to develop a general theoretical framework that could be used to create testable predictions for specific host-pathogen systems. Here, we develop an individual-based model integrated with movement ecology approaches to investigate how host movement behaviors interact with landscape heterogeneity (in the form of various levels of resource abundance and clustering) to affect pathogen dynamics. For most of the parameter space, our results support the counterintuitive idea that fragmentation promotes pathogen persistence, but this finding was largely dependent on perceptual range of the host, conspecific density, and recovery rate. For simulations with high conspecific density, slower recovery rates, and larger perceptual ranges, more complex disease dynamics emerged, and the most fragmented landscapes were not necessarily the most conducive to outbreaks or pathogen persistence. These results point to the importance of interactions between landscape structure, individual movement behavior, and pathogen transmission for predicting and understanding disease dynamics.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Enfermedades Transmisibles
/
Brotes de Enfermedades
/
Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa
/
Migración Animal
/
Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Año:
2018
Tipo del documento:
Article