Time series non-Gaussian Bayesian bivariate model applied to data on HMPV and RSV: a case of Dadaab in Kenya.
BMC Public Health
; 19(1): 807, 2019 Jun 24.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31234829
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) have similar symptoms to those caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The modes of transmission and dynamics of time series data still remain poorly understood. Climatic factors have long been suspected to be implicated in impacting on the number of cases for these epidemics. Currently, only a few models satisfactorily capture the dynamics of time series data of these two viruses. Our objective was to assess the presence of influence of high incidences between the viruses and to ascertain whether higher incidences of one virus are influenced by the other.METHODS:
In this study, we used a negative binomial model to investigate the relationship between RSV and HMPV while adjusting for climatic factors. We specifically aimed at establishing the heterogeneity in the autoregressive effect to account for the influence between these viruses.RESULTS:
In this study, our findings showed that RSV incidence contributed to the severity of HMPV incidence. This was achieved through comparison of 12 models with different structures, including those with and without interaction between climatic factors. The models with climatic factors out-performed those without.CONCLUSIONS:
The study has improved our understanding of the dynamics of RSV and HMPV in relation to climatic cofactors thereby setting a platform to devise better intervention measures to combat the epidemics. We conclude that preventing and controlling RSV infection subsequently reduces the incidence of HMPV.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Vigilancia de la Población
/
Modelos Estadísticos
/
Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano
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Infecciones por Virus Sincitial Respiratorio
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Infecciones por Paramyxoviridae
/
Metapneumovirus
Tipo de estudio:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Límite:
Female
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Humans
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Male
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Public Health
Asunto de la revista:
SAUDE PUBLICA
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Sudáfrica