Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species' distributions.
Ecol Lett
; 25(1): 38-51, 2022 Jan.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34708503
ABSTRACT
Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions-through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks-are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Ecosistema
/
Pinus
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Ecol Lett
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos