Validation of a predictive model for identifying an increased risk for recurrence in adolescents and young adults with a first provoked thromboembolism.
Blood Cells Mol Dis
; 94: 102651, 2022 05.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35051688
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
To develop and validate a predictive model to determinate patients at increased risk to suffer from recurrence following a first provoked deep vein thrombosis (VTE).METHODS:
Predictive variables, i.e. male sex [1 point], inherited thrombophilia (IT) status (none [0 points], single [1 point], combined variants [2 points]), blood group non-0, and age at first VTE onset were included into a risk assessment model, which was derived in 511 patients and then validated in 509 independent subjects.RESULTS:
VTE recurrence risk score (maximum 4 points, range 0-3) was below two for patients scored as low-risk (LRS) and ≥2 for patients at high-risk (HRS). Within a median time of 3 years after withdrawal of anticoagulation (AC) recurrence rate in LRG (derivation) was 11.8% versus 26.0% in HRS (p < 0.001). In the validation cohort within 2.2 years the recurrence rate was 9.8% in LRS versus 30.1% in HRS (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis adjusted for age at first VTE and blood group the recurrent risk in HRS was significantly increased compared with the LRS (derivation hazard/95% confidence interval 3.7/1.75-7.91; validation 4.7/2.24-9.81; combined 5.2/1.92-13.9). Model specificity (sensitivity) was 79.0% (52.0%) in the derivation cohort compared with 78.0% (43.0%) in the validation group. In conclusion, in the prediction model presented here the risk of VTE recurrence was associated with male gender and combined ITs. Based on the negative predictive value calculated the model may identify patients with a first provoked VTE not being at risk for recurrence.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Antígenos de Grupos Sanguíneos
/
Trombofilia
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Trombosis de la Vena
/
Tromboembolia Venosa
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
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Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Blood Cells Mol Dis
Asunto de la revista:
HEMATOLOGIA
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Alemania