The effects of the Promoting the Big and Quashing the Small Policy on pollutants from a coal power supply chain perspective.

China implemented the Promoting the Big and Quashing the Small Policy (PBQSP) in 2007 to alleviate air pollution due to coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). However, how the policy affected the air pollutant emissions remains poorly understood. We compared the air pollutant emissions between decommissioned and newly-built CFPPs under the PBQSP by developing a plant-level supply chain emission inventory model, taking Shandong, China's top provincial-level coal power producer, as the case area. The results indicated that compared to a 27.4% increase in electricity produced in Shandong from 2010 to 2014, the NOx, particulate matter (PM), Hg, and SO2 emissions disproportionately increased by 10.3%, 11.7%, 11.8% and 0.5%, respectively. It was found that the PBQSP policy has made great contribution to air pollution mitigation, as the supply chain emission intensities (emissions per kilowatt-hour) of NOX, PM, Hg and SO2 of the newly-built CFPPs are three-quarters, two-fifths, three-fifths, and four-fifths lower, respectively, than those of the decommissioned CFPPs. However, coal transport route changes caused an increase in NOX, PM, and SO2 emissions by 44.0%, 45.5%, and 55.6%, respectively, during the transportation stage, which offset the PBQSP overall mitigation effect. By building a comprehensive assessment framework for air pollutant control policies, our study provides insights for formulating coordinated mitigation measures for the pollutant-intensive industries, such as promoting efficient air pollutant control technologies including the spray dust suppression devices.