Endoscopic ultrasound-based application system for predicting endoscopic resection-related outcomes and diagnosing subepithelial lesions: Multicenter prospective study.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Subepithelial lesions (SELs) are associated with various endoscopic resection (ER) outcomes and diagnostic challenges. We aimed to establish a tool for predicting ER-related outcomes and diagnosing SELs and to investigate the predictive value of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS). METHODS: Phase 1 (system development) was performed in a retrospective cohort (n = 837) who underwent EUS before ER for SELs at eight hospitals. Prediction models for five key outcomes were developed using logistic regression. Models with satisfactory internal validation performance were included in a mobile application system, SEL endoscopic resection predictor (SELERP). In Phase 2, the models were externally validated in a prospective cohort of 200 patients. RESULTS: An SELERP was developed using EUS characteristics, which included 10 models for five key outcomes: post-ER ulcer management, short procedure time, long hospital stay, high medication costs, and diagnosis of SELs. In Phase 1, 10 models were derived and validated (C-statistics, 0.67-0.99; calibration-in-the-large, -0.14-0.10; calibration slopes, 0.92-1.08). In Phase 2, the derived risk prediction models showed convincing discrimination (C-statistics, 0.64-0.73) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large, -0.02-0.05; calibration slopes, 1.01-1.09) in the prospective cohort. The sensitivities and specificities of the five diagnostic models were 68.3-95.7% and 64.1-83.3%, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed and prospectively validated an application system for the prediction of ER outcomes and diagnosis of SELs, which could aid clinical decision-making and facilitate patient-physician consultation. EUS features significantly contributed to the prediction. TRIAL REGISTRATION Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, http//www.chictr.org.cn (ChiCTR2000040118).