No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data.
Nat Commun
; 14(1): 2945, 2023 06 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37263994
ABSTRACT
Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate RC, individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012-2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (RC < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (RC > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in RC estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Plasmodium knowlesi
/
Malaria Vivax
/
Malaria Falciparum
/
Malaria
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido