Development of a scoring model based on objective factors to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis is higher than that of uncomplicated appendicitis. However, non-operative management of such patients is ineffective. This necessitates their careful exam at presentation to identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and aid surgical decision-making. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a new scoring model based on objective findings to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis in adults. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 151 patients with acute appendicitis who underwent emergency surgery between January 2014 and June 2021. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify independent objective predictors of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis, and a new scoring model was developed based on logistic regression coefficients for independent predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were performed to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model. Finally, the scores were classified into three categories based on the probability of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. RESULTS: Among the 151 patients, 85 and 66 patients were diagnosed with gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and uncomplicated appendicitis, respectively. Using the multivariate analysis, C-reactive protein level, maximal outer diameter of the appendix, and presence of appendiceal fecalith were identified as independent predictors for developing gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. Our novel scoring model was developed based on three independent predictors and ranged from 0 to 3. The area under the ROC curve was 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.721-0.863), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration of the novel scoring model (P = 0.716). Three risk categories were classified low, moderate, and high risk with probabilities of 30.9%, 63.8%, and 94.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our scoring model can objectively and reproducibly identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis with good diagnostic accuracy and help in determining the degree of urgency and in making decisions about appendicitis management.