A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion.
Nat Plants
; 10(3): 390-401, 2024 03.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38467801
ABSTRACT
Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location. Our verification method rejects 40-60% of simulated false claims, depending on the spatial scale of the claim, and maintains a low probability of rejecting correct origin claims. Our determination method predicts harvest location within 180 to 230 km of true location. Our results showcase the power of combining data types with probabilistic modelling to identify and scrutinize timber harvest location claims.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Fagus
/
Pinus
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Plants
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos