Observational evidence of changing cloud macro-physical properties under warming climate over the Indian summer monsoon region.

ABSTRACT

The cloud responses to global warming are captured in various global climate models with distinct inferences on changes in cloud vertical structure as function of surface warming. However, long term observational evidences are scarce to validate the model outputs. Here, we have studied the changes in radiosonde derived cloud macro-physical properties and their association with other atmospheric variables during the period 2000-2019 in response to warming climate over the Indian summer monsoon region. We have observed a statistically significant increase in the frequency of cloudy days (∼13 % decade-1), high-level clouds (HLCs ∼11 % decade-1) and simultaneous decrease in low-level clouds (LLCs ∼8 % decade-1) over the Indian region during the monsoon season. The multiple linear regression, principle component analyses and further correlation analyses suggest significant associations between cloud vertical structure variations and large-scale climate indicators, such as global warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The vertical extension of the tropospheric column and the upward shift of clouds, attributed to global warming, explain the changes observed in both HLCs and LLCs. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamic interplay between global climate change and regional cloud dynamics, with implications for weather and climate modeling.