Risks of infectious disease hospitalisations in the aftermath of tropical cyclones: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of intense tropical cyclones is expected to increase in a changing climate. However, there is currently no consistent and comprehensive assessment of infectious disease risk following tropical cyclone exposure across countries and over decades. We aimed to explore the tropical cyclone-associated hospitalisation risks and burden for cause-specific infectious diseases on a multi-country scale. METHODS: Hospitalisation records for infectious diseases were collected from six countries and territories (Canada, South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam) during various periods between 2000 and 2019. The days with tropical cyclone-associated maximum sustained windspeeds of 34 knots or higher derived from a parametric wind field model were considered as tropical cyclone exposure days. The association of monthly infectious diseases hospitalisations and tropical cyclone exposure days was first examined at location level using a distributed lag non-linear quasi-Poisson regression model, and then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The tropical cyclone-attributable number and fraction of infectious disease hospitalisations were also calculated. FINDINGS: Overall, 2·2 million people who were hospitalised for infectious diseases in 179 locations that had at least one tropical cyclone exposure day in the six countries and territories were included in the analysis. The elevated hospitalisation risks for infectious diseases associated with tropical cyclones tended to dissipate 2 months after the tropical cyclone exposure. Overall, each additional tropical cyclone day was associated with a 9% (cumulative relative risk 1·09 [95% CI 1·05-1·14]) increase in hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 13% (1·13 [1·05-1·21]) for intestinal infectious diseases, 14% (1·14 [1·05-1·23]) for sepsis, and 22% (1·22 [1·03-1·46]) for dengue during the 2 months after a tropical cyclone. Associations of tropical cyclones with hospitalisations for tuberculosis and malaria were not significant. In total, 0·72% (95% CI 0·40-1·01) of the hospitalisations for all-cause infectious diseases, 0·33% (0·15-0·49) for intestinal infectious diseases, 1·31% (0·57-1·95) for sepsis, and 0·63% (0·10-1·04) for dengue were attributable to tropical cyclone exposures. The attributable burdens were higher among young populations (aged ≤19 years) and male individuals compared with their counterparts, especially for intestinal infectious diseases. The heterogeneous spatiotemporal pattern was further revealed at the country and territory level-tropical cyclone-attributable fractions showed a decreasing trend in South Korea during the study period but an increasing trend in Viet Nam, Taiwan, and New Zealand. INTERPRETATION: Tropical cyclones were associated with persistent elevated hospitalisation risks of infectious diseases (particularly sepsis and intestinal infectious diseases). Targeted interventions should be formulated for different populations, regions, and causes of infectious diseases based on evidence on tropical cyclone epidemiology to respond to the increasing risk and burden. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health, and Medical Research Council.

Leptospirosis Outbreak in Aftermath of Hurricane Fiona - Puerto Rico, 2022.

Leptospirosis, an acute bacterial zoonotic disease, is endemic in Puerto Rico. Infection in approximately 10%-15% of patients with clinical disease progresses to severe, potentially fatal illness. Increased incidence has been associated with flooding in endemic areas around the world. In 2022, Hurricane Fiona, a Category 1 hurricane, made landfall and inundated Puerto Rico with heavy rainfall and severe flooding, increasing the risk for a leptospirosis outbreak. In response, the Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) changed guidelines to make leptospirosis cases reportable within 24 hours, centralized the case investigation management system, and provided training and messaging to health care providers. To evaluate changes in risk for leptospirosis after Hurricane Fiona to that before the storm, the increase in cases was quantified, and patient characteristics and geographic distribution were compared. During the 15 weeks after Hurricane Fiona, 156 patients experienced signs and symptoms of leptospirosis and had a specimen with a positive laboratory result reported to PRDH. The mean weekly number of cases during this period was 10.4, which is 3.6 as high as the weekly number of cases during the previous 37 weeks (2.9). After Hurricane Fiona, the proportion of cases indicating exposure to potentially contaminated water increased from 11% to 35%, and the number of persons receiving testing increased; these factors likely led to the resulting overall surge in reported cases. Robust surveillance combined with outreach to health care providers after flooding events can improve leptospirosis case identification, inform clinicians considering early initiation of treatment, and guide public messaging to avoid wading, swimming, or any contact with potentially contaminated floodwaters.

Explosive cyclones occurred between 2010 and 2020 in the South Atlantic under the perspective of two detection schemes.

Under two detection schemes, this study analyzes one of the most destructive weather systems - the explosive cyclones - in the South Atlantic, from 2010 to 2020. Then, two methods are presented to study these systems: the Observational Method (OBSM) and the Automated Method (AUTM). The first uses visual analysis of the mean sea level pressure (mslp) fields and functions to identify the local minimums using the Grid Analysis and Display (GrADS) software. The second utilizes a function from OpenGrADS called mfhilo. It shows the local minimum in the grid using laplacian, magnitude, and percentile. Two shell algorithms for data manipulation are used for the AUTM: one to trace the cyclones' trajectories according to a previously defined fixed area and the other to separate them into explosives. The OBSM methodology showed 271 cases averaging 25 yearly and revealed important characteristics regarding the intensities. According to AUTM's methodology, from the 2705 ordinary cyclone cases identified, 299 are explosives. There is a clear seasonality pattern in the systems' distribution along South America, similar to OBSM, but more highlighted. In summer, they concentrate at high latitudes, while in winter and spring, they are assembled near southern Brazilian and Uruguayan coasts.

Maladaptive behaviors in disasters: case study evaluation of Hurricane Hugo, Hurricane Katrina and the Haiti Earthquake.

Maladaptive behaviors during a disaster refer to actions that do not benefit the individual or society. Quarantelli highlights several maladaptive behaviors myths associated with disasters: widespread antisocial behavior, passivity, role conflict or abandonment, and sudden widespread mental health breakdowns (1). Despite early work reporting these myths, the common perception is that maladaptive behaviors such as rioting, looting, panic, and criminal conduct are prevalent in the wake of disasters. This is despite research by de Ville de Goyet and Arnold which has called on public officials and the media to stop propagating false disaster myths (2, 3). The classic academic response has been that this is a misconception and that, in fact, such behaviors are a very small part of the overall disaster and are mostly non-existent. Misconceptions about the prevalence of maladaptive behaviors can lead to inappropriate resource allocation, such as allocating extra police officers to prevent looting when the overall crime rate for the most part, decreases during disasters (4). Furthermore, while there are several persistent maladaptive behaviors myths, this is confounded by the presence of actual negative behaviors post disaster: false damage claims, insurance fraud, illegally obtaining relief supplies, failure to provide contracted repair services, hoarding of essential items, psychological trauma (which can lead to intergenerational transmission of the disaster memory) and medications and price gouging (5).When reading lay-press articles about recent disasters, it appears that these behaviors are on the rise. This raises the question: Has there been a change in the basic human reaction to disasters and are maladaptive behaviors on the rise? This review article focuses on case studies from three natural disasters: Hurricanes Hugo and Katrina, and the Haiti Earthquake. The goal of this review article is to evaluate these three natural disasters for evidence of maladaptive behaviors.

Natural coral recovery despite negative population growth.

Demographic processes that ensure the recovery and resilience of marine populations are critical as climate change sends an increasing proportion on a trajectory of decline. Yet for some populations, recovery potential remains high. We conducted annual monitoring over 9 years (2012-2020) to assess the recovery of coral populations belonging to the genus Pocillopora. These populations experienced a catastrophic collapse following a severe typhoon in 2009. From the start of the monitoring period, high initial recruitment led to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly transitioned to sexually mature adults, which dominated the population within 6 years after the disturbance. As a result, coral cover increased from 1.1% to 20.2% during this time. To identify key demographic drivers of recovery and population growth rates (λ), we applied kernel-resampled integral projection models (IPMs), constructing eight successive models to examine annual change. IPMs were able to capture reproductive traits as key demographic drivers over the initial 3 years, while individual growth was a continuous key demographic driver throughout the entire monitoring period. IPMs further detected a pulse of reproductive output subsequent to two further Category 5 typhoon events during the monitoring period, exemplifying key mechanisms of resilience for coral populations impacted by disturbance. Despite rapid recovery, (i.e., increased coral cover, individual colony growth, low mortality), IPMs estimated predominantly negative values of λ, indicating a declining population. Indeed, while λ translates to a change in the number of individuals, the recovery of coral populations can also be driven by an increase in the size of surviving colonies. Our results illustrate that accumulating long-term data on historical dynamics and applying IPMs to extract demographic drivers are crucial for future predictions that are based on comprehensive and robust understandings of ecological change.

The cumulative contribution of direct and indirect traumas to the production of PTSD.

OBJECTIVE: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) affects millions of people worldwide. While the relationship between direct exposure to traumatic events and PTSD is well-established, the influence of indirect trauma exposure on PTSD remains unclear. It is similarly unclear what role cumulative exposure to direct and indirect traumas play in the risk of PTSD. METHODS: The study uses data from the Houston Trauma and Recovery Study, conducted on 2020-2021, and involved a random sampling of 1,167 individuals residing in Houston during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Participants were asked about their experiences related to both Hurricane Harvey and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic. Exposures were categorized as direct or indirect traumas, in line with the criteria delineated in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5). Cumulative exposures were also calculated. RESULTS: Among participants, 12.6% were experiencing current PTSD. There were significant associations between both direct [OR = 3.18, 95% CI 1.85, 5.46] and indirect [OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.05, 3.46] traumas related to Harvey, as well as direct [OR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.20, 3.77] and indirect [OR = 1.69, 95% CI 0.93, 3.09] traumas due to COVID and the risk of PTSD in fully adjusted models. Further, significant associations were found between the cumulative exposure to traumas from both Hurricane Harvey and COVID-19 and the risk of PTSD, considering both direct [OR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.36, 4.70] and indirect exposures [OR = 2.79, 95% CI 1.47, 5.28]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study offers support for connections between exposure to both direct and indirect traumas stemming from large-scale disasters and PTSD. Moreover, we show that cumulative exposures to multiple large-scale events increase the risk of PTSD. This highlights the importance of the consideration of a range of exposures as risks for PTSD, particularly in a time of compounding disasters and broad population exposures to these events.

Long-term impact of Hurricane Maria on point-of-use drinking water quality in Puerto Rico and associated potential adverse health effects.

Drinking water security in Puerto Rico (PR) is increasingly challenged by both regulated and emerging anthropogenic contaminants, which was exacerbated by the Hurricane Maria (HM) due to impaired regional water cycle and damaged water infrastructure. Leveraging the NIEHS PROTECT (Puerto Rico Testsite for Exploring Contamination Threats) cohort, this study assessed the long-term tap water (TW) quality changes from March 2018 to November 2018 after HM in PR, by innovatively integrating two different effect-based quantitative toxicity assays with a targeted analysis of 200 organic and 22 inorganic pollutants. Post-hurricane PR TW quality showed recovery after >6-month period as indicated by the decreased number of contaminants showing elevated average concentrations relative to pre-hurricane samples, with significant difference of both chemical and toxicity levels between northern and southern PR. Molecular toxicity profiling and correlation revealed that the HM-accelerated releases of certain pesticides and PPCPs could exert increased cellular oxidative and/or AhR (aryl hydrocarbon receptor)-mediated activities that may persist for more than six months after HM. Maximum cumulative ratio and adverse outcome pathway (AOP) assessment identified the top ranked detected TW contaminants (Cu, Sr, V, perfluorooctanoic acid) that potentially associated with different adverse health effects such as inflammation, impaired reproductive systems, cancers/tumors, and/or organ toxicity. These insights can be incorporated into the regulatory framework for post-disaster risk assessment, guiding water quality control and management for public health protection.

Risk and protective factors associated with substance use among Puerto Rican youths after Hurricane María: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying factors associated with post-disaster youth substance use is a crucial element of developing evidence-based prevention and intervention efforts. Hurricane María struck Puerto Rico in September of 2017 and the wide-spread impact from this disaster, including exposure to trauma, displacement, and disrupted social supports had the potential to negatively impact levels of substance use among youth across the archipelago. However, post-disaster substance use remains under-investigated in this context. The current study sought to identify risk and protective factors associated with substance use among Puerto Rican youth in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. METHODS: Cross-sectional, secondary data analyses were conducted using school-based survey data collected at all schools in Puerto Rico between February 1 and June 29, 2018 (5-9 months after Hurricane María). Social supports, substance use, and trauma symptoms were assessed. An ordinal regression analysis was conducted to identify student factors associated with greater likelihood of post-disaster substance use. RESULTS: A total of 36,485 participants (50.7% female, grades 7-12), were included in an ordinal regression analysis that compared the likelihood of respondents endorsing high, low, or no substance use after Hurricane María based on reported adult social support, counselor/teacher social support, peer social support, ptsd symptomatology, and gender. Findings showed that, when compared to students that endorsed low or no substance use, those who reported having adult social support demonstrated a 58% reduction in odds (OR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.34-0.53) of reporting high substance use after Hurricane María, while students who reported having teacher/counselor social support demonstrated a 21% reduction in odds (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69-0.89) of reporting high substance use. Additionally, those that reported having peer social support demonstrated a 31% increase in odds (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.58) of reporting higher substance use, compared to those that reported low or no substance use. CONCLUSIONS: While social support was generally protective, prevention efforts to build positive family and community connections may be indicated. Evidence-based school screenings of substance use and trauma may help direct intervention to those most at risk for co-occurring issues.

Population-level effects of Hurricane Sandy on adolescent health.

BACKGROUND: Disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Youth are the largest and most vulnerable group exposed to disasters. More evidence is needed regarding how youth mental health and health behaviors vary based on disaster exposure, how mental health influences health behaviors, and how diverse groups of youth may be differentially affected. METHODS: Using data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey and Federal Emergency Management Agency, we examined the impact of Hurricane Sandy (2012) on mental health (sadness, suicidality) and health behaviors (substance use, physical activity, screen time, sexual behaviors) of 240,365 youth. Difference-in-differences regression analyses evaluated pre-disaster (2005-2011) and post-disaster (2013-2019) changes. RESULTS: There were 83,442 (34.7 %) adolescents (51.2 % female, 18.1 % non-Hispanic White) located in 6 districts exposed to Hurricane Sandy and 156,923 (65.3 %) adolescents located in 13 non-exposed districts. Exposure was associated with differences in substance use, physical (in)activity, and risky sexual behaviors, but not mental health outcomes. Mental health did not moderate the association between disaster exposure and health behaviors. Hispanic adolescents and those identifying as Other races/ethnicities were most vulnerable to post-disaster negative health outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Study limitations include questionnaire design, cross-sectional data, sampling, and possible response biases. CONCLUSIONS: Findings provide critical information about youth mental health and health behaviors following disasters, as well as how youth may differ in their responses. Findings provide guidance for early identification and resource allocation for youth at higher risk for post-disaster health issues.

Tropical cyclone FANTALA's three turnbacks in the northeast of Madagascar Island.

The unique Tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala appeared in the central Indian Ocean (12.4°S, 73.5°E) at 00Z on April 11 in 2016 and moved northwestward along the northeast of Madagascar at 18 Z on April 15. Then, two incomprehensible turnbacks formed a unique TC track. The dynamic mechanisms of the three turnbacks were first studied based on remote sensing and multisource reanalysis data. The results reveal that the wind field with upper divergence and lower convergence promotes the development of Fantala. The anticyclone high pressure on the middle level atmosphere is an important factor for TC turnbacks. On 15 April, the TC made the first turnback to turn northwest due to the southward anticyclone weakened to moving northwest. On 18 April, the TC made the second turnback along the anticyclone edge due to the northern high-pressure and southern low-pressure trough. On 22 April, the TC made the third turnback because the anticyclonic high press center broke into two small independent anticyclonic centers in the southwest and northeast, which created a barrier band and pushed the northern TC to move to the northwest. Meanwhile, the vertical wind shear (VWS) also provides favorable conditions for TC turnbacks. On April 18, the middle atmosphere of the TC was affected by strong easterly shear and weak southerly shear, and the second turnback was completed. On April 22, the middle level environment was affected by strong westerly shear and weak north shear, and the third turnback was completed. Additionally, heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere provides favorable conditions for TC development. On April 18, The maximum mean latent heat flux over northeastern Madagascar was 112.94 W/m2, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential was 39.05 kJ/cm2, and the maximum wind speed at the center of the TC was 155 kts. On April 22, The heat transfer from the equator increased by 18.08 W/m2 compared with the latent heat on 21 April, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential was 33.30 kJ/cm2, the maximum wind speed in the TC center was 90 kts, the high PV centerspread down from 850 mb to 900 mb. This study deepens the understanding of track forecasting during the development of a TC.

Hurricanes temporarily weaken human-ecosystem linkages in estuaries.

Intense disturbances such as hurricanes may drastically affect ecosystems, producing both acute and long-term changes along coastlines. By disrupting human activities (e.g., fishing), hurricanes can provide an opportunity to quantify the effects of these activities on coastal ecosystems. We performed predator-exclusion experiments on oyster reefs in 2016, one-year before a category-4 hurricane ("Harvey") and again in 2018 one-year post-hurricane where the storm made landfall. Additionally, we examined 8 years (2011-2018) of fisheries-independent data to gauge how fishing pressure and fish populations were affected by the storm in three locations that varied in storm impacts. In the month following Hurricane Harvey, fishing effort dropped by 90% in the area with wind and flooding damage, and predatory fish species commonly targeted by anglers were 300% more abundant than the year prior to the hurricane. The locations without damage to fishing infrastructure did not experience declines in fishing pressure or changes in fish abundance, regardless of flooding disturbance. Reef fish and invertebrate communities directly affected by the storm were significantly different after the hurricane and were ~ 30% more diverse. With low fishing pressure, sportfish CPUE were 1.7-6.9 × higher immediately after the hurricane. Intermediate consumers, such as crabs that prey on oysters, were 45% less abundant and 10% smaller. These results indicate that hurricanes can temporarily disrupt human-ecosystem linkages and reconstitute top-down control by sportfish in estuarine food webs. Disturbance events that interrupt or weaken those interactions may yield indirect ecological benefits and provide insights into the effects of human activities on food webs.

Climate Justice Implications of Natech Disasters: Excess Contaminant Releases during Hurricanes on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Extreme weather events are becoming more severe due to climate change, increasing the risk of contaminant releases from hazardous sites disproportionately located in low-income communities of color. We evaluated contaminant releases during Hurricanes Rita, Ike, and Harvey in Texas and used regression models to estimate associations between neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and residential proximity to hurricane-related contaminant releases. Two-to-three times as many excess releases were reported during hurricanes compared to business-as-usual periods. Petrochemical manufacturing and refineries were responsible for most air emissions events. Multivariable models revealed sociodemographic disparities in likelihood of releases; compared to neighborhoods near regulated facilities without a release, a one-percent increase in Hispanic residents was associated with a 5 and 10% increase in the likelihood of an air emissions event downwind and within 2 km during Hurricanes Rita and Ike (odds ratio and 95% credible interval= 1.05 [1.00, 1.13], combined model) and Harvey (1.10 [1.00, 1.23]), respectively. Higher percentages of renters (1.07 [1.03, 1.11], combined Rita and Ike model) and rates of poverty (1.06 [1.01, 1.12], Harvey model) were associated with a higher likelihood of a release to land or water, while the percentage of Black residents (0.94 [0.89, 1.00], Harvey model) was associated with a slightly lower likelihood. Population density was consistently associated with a decreased likelihood of a contaminant release to air, land, or water. Our findings highlight social inequalities in the risks posed by natural-technological disasters that disproportionately impact Hispanic, renter, low-income, and rural populations.

Satellite imagery-based tropical cyclone impact assessment on LULC and vegetation: a case study of cyclone Biparjoy.

Cyclones pose significant threats to coastal regions, triggering widespread ecological and hydrological changes. This study presents an impact assessment of cyclone Biparjoy, which originated in the Arabian Sea and made landfall on the Gujarat coast of India on June 16, 2023. The research encompasses flood delineation and vegetation impact assessment in the Kachchh and Devbhoomi Dwarka districts of Gujarat, India. Sentinel-1A (VV polarized) imagery is used to precisely map the extent of inundation caused by cyclone Biparjoy. The total flooded area for Kachchh and Devbhoomi Dwarka was calculated to be 6556.73 km2 and 104.49 km2, respectively. The most affected LULC class in Kachchh is found to be bare ground (38.95%) and rangeland (38.94%) which is the major part of the Northeastern Rann region. In Dwarka, most waterlogging has been seen in the cropland (33.04%). The classification of the water and non-water pixels for the pre- and post-images is validated using the ROC curve. The accuracy was 93.2% and 89.5% for pre- and post-images classifications, respectively. Furthermore, vegetation impact was investigated to estimate the cyclone's ecological consequences. Alterations in vegetation density and overall health were estimated by calculating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from both pre- and post-cyclone Landsat-8 OLI images. The cyclone-induced damage is further assessed for the mangrove trees in Kori Creek. This work contributes to understanding the ecological repercussions of such extreme weather events.

Epigenetic Age Acceleration and Disparities in Posttraumatic Stress in Women in Southeast Louisiana: NIMHD Social Epigenomics Program.

Importance: Disasters experienced by an entire community provide opportunities to understand individual differences in risk for adverse health outcomes over time. DNA methylation (DNAm) differences may help to distinguish individuals at increased risk following large-scale disasters. Objective: To examine the association of epigenetic age acceleration with probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and PTSD symptom severity in women. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study examined data from participants in the Women and Their Children's Health cohort, who were characterized longitudinally following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS) in 2010 and through numerous hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region of the US. Wave 1 occurred August 6, 2012, through June 26, 2014, and wave 2 occurred September 2, 2014, through May 27, 2016. Data were analyzed between August 18 and November 4, 2023. Address-based sampling was used to recruit women aged 18 to 80 years and residing in 1 of the 7 Louisiana parishes surrounding the DHOS-affected region. Recruitment consisted of 2-stage sampling that (1) undersampled the 2 more urban parishes to maximize probability of participant oil exposure and (2) proportionally recruited participants across census tracts in the 5 other parishes closest to the spill. Exposure: Posttraumatic stress subsequent to the DHOS. Main Outcome and Measures: Epigenetic age acceleration was measured by DNAm assayed from survey wave 1 blood samples. Posttraumatic stress disorder was assessed using the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 at survey wave 2, and lifetime trauma exposure was assessed using the Life Events Checklist for DSM-5. General linear models were used to examine the association between wave 1 DNAm age and wave 2 probable PTSD diagnosis and symptom severity. Results: A total of 864 women (mean [SD] age, 47.1 [12.0] years; 328 Black [38.0%], 19 American Indian [2.2%], 486 White [56.3%], and 30 of other racial groups, including uknown or unreported [3.5%]) were included. Black and American Indian participants had a higher age acceleration at wave 1 compared with White participants (ß = 1.64 [95% CI, 1.02-2.45] and 2.34 [95% CI, 0.33-4.34], respectively), and they had higher PTSD symptom severity at wave 2 (ß = 7.10 [95% CI, 4.62-9.58] and 13.08 [95% CI, 4.97-21.18], respectively). Epigenetic age acceleration at wave 1 was associated with PTSD symptom severity at wave 2 after adjusting for race, smoking, body mass index, and household income (ß = 0.38; 95% CI, 0.11-0.65). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, epigenetic age acceleration was higher in minoritized racial groups and associated with future PTSD diagnosis and severity. These findings support the need for psychoeducation about traumatic responses to increase the likelihood that treatment is sought before years of distress and entrenchment of symptoms and comorbidities occur.

Oceanic seabirds chase tropical cyclones.

In late summer and autumn, the passage of intense tropical cyclones can profoundly perturb oceanic and coastal ecosystems. Direct negative effects on individuals and marine communities can be dramatic, especially in the coastal zone,1,2,3,4 but cyclones can also enhance pelagic primary and secondary production.5,6,7,8,9 However, cyclone impacts on open ocean marine life remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate their effects on the foraging movements of a wide-ranging higher predator, the Desertas petrel (Pterodroma deserta), in the mid-latitude North Atlantic during hurricane season. Contrary to previously studied pelagic seabirds in tropical and mid-latitude regions,10,11 Desertas petrels did not avoid cyclones by altering course, nor did they seek calmer conditions within the cyclone eye. Approximately one-third of petrels tracked from their breeding colony interacted with approaching cyclones. Upon encountering strong winds, the birds reduced ground speed, likely by spending less time in flight. A quarter of birds followed cyclone wakes for days and over thousands of kilometers, a behavior documented here for the first time. Within these wakes, tailwind support was higher than along alternative routes. Furthermore, at the mesoscale (hours-weeks and hundreds of kilometers), sea surface temperature dropped and surface chlorophyll sharply increased, suggesting direct effects on ocean stratification, primary production, and therefore presumably prey abundance and accessibility for surface-feeding petrels. We therefore hypothesize that cyclone wakes provide both predictably favorable wind conditions and foraging opportunities. As such, cyclones may have positive net effects on the demography of many mid-latitude pelagic seabirds and, likely, other marine top-predators.

Ecological disturbance alters the adaptive benefits of social ties.

Extreme weather events radically alter ecosystems. When ecological damage persists, selective pressures on individuals can change, leading to phenotypic adjustments. For group-living animals, social relationships may be a mechanism enabling adaptation to ecosystem disturbance. Yet whether such events alter selection on sociality and whether group-living animals can, as a result, adaptively change their social relationships remain untested. We leveraged 10 years of data collected on rhesus macaques before and after a category 4 hurricane caused persistent deforestation, exacerbating monkeys' exposure to intense heat. In response, macaques demonstrated persistently increased tolerance and decreased aggression toward other monkeys, facilitating access to scarce shade critical for thermoregulation. Social tolerance predicted individual survival after the hurricane, but not before it, revealing a shift in the adaptive function of sociality.

Predicting Post-Disaster Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Trajectories: The Role of Pre-Disaster Traumatic Experiences.

The mental health impact of disasters is substantial, with 30-40% of direct disaster victims developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). It is not yet clear why some people cope well with disaster-related trauma while others experience chronic dysfunction. Prior research on non-disaster trauma suggests that an individual's history of traumatic experiences earlier in the life course, prior to the disaster, may be a key factor in explaining variability in psychological responses to disasters. This study evaluated the extent to which pre-disaster trauma predicts PTSD trajectories in a sample of Hurricane Katrina survivors followed for 12 years after the storm. Four PTSD trajectories were identified using latent class growth analysis: Resistant (49.0%), Recovery (29.3%), Delayed-Onset (8.0%), and Chronic-High (13.7%). After adjusting for covariates, pre-Katrina trauma had only a small, positive impact on the probability of long-term, chronic Katrina-specific PTSD, and little effect on the probability of the Resistant and Delayed-Onset trajectories. Higher pre-Katrina trauma exposure moderately decreased the probability of being in the Recovery trajectory, in which Katrina-specific PTSD symptoms are initially high before declining over time. When covariates were added to the model one at a time, the association between pre-Katrina trauma and Chronic-High PTSD was attenuated most by the addition of Katrina-related trauma. Our findings suggest that while pre-disaster trauma exposure does not have a strong direct effect on chronic Katrina-specific PTSD, pre-Katrina trauma may impact PTSD through other factors that affect Katrina-related PTSD, such as by increasing the severity of Katrina-related trauma. These findings have important implications for the development of disaster preparedness strategies to diminish the long-term burden of disaster-related PTSD.

Returners and explorers dichotomy in the face of natural hazards.

Understanding human mobility patterns amid natural hazards is crucial for enhancing urban emergency responses and rescue operations. Existing research on human mobility has delineated two primary types of individuals: returners, who exhibit a tendency to frequent a limited number of locations, and explorers, characterized by a more diverse range of movement across various places. Yet, whether this mobility dichotomy endures in the context of natural hazards remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining anonymized high-resolution mobile phone location data from Lee County, Florida residents, aiming to unravel the dynamics of these distinct mobility groups throughout different phases of Hurricane Ian. The results indicate that returners and explorers maintained their distinct mobility characteristics even during the hurricane, showing increased separability. Before the hurricane, returners favored shorter trips, while explorers embarked on longer journeys, a trend that continued during the hurricane. However, the hurricane heightened people's inclination to explore, leading to a notable increase in longer-distance travel for both groups, likely influenced by evacuation considerations. Spatially, both groups exhibited an uptick in trips towards the southern regions, away from the hurricane's path, particularly converging on major destinations such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, and West Palm Beach during the hurricane.