The Epidemic Diseases Act (1897): A study of international and domestic pressures on British epidemic policy formation in India.

The Epidemic Diseases Act (EDA) was enacted in February 1897 by the Government of India to prevent and control the spread of the plague. Since then, the Act has become a key legal tool for the control of epidemics/pandemics in India. We attempted to understand the international and domestic pressures that led to the adoption of the EDA in three ways. First, we analyse the legislative structure (Bombay Municipal Act of 1888, Indian Railways Act of 1890, and Act I of 1870) that dealt with infectious or contagious diseases in colonial India before the EDA came into force. Second, we focus on the linkages between international and domestic pressures that necessitated the adoption of the EDA. Third, we analyse the discussions of the Council of the Governor General of India on the bill titled 'A Bill to Provide for the better prevention of the spread of Dangerous Epidemic Diseases', which later became the Epidemic Diseases Act No. III of 1897. We situate the EDA in an international context of International Sanitary Conferences, quarantine, trade concerns, and pilgrimage to Mecca in order to understand the pressures that impacted British epidemic policy formation in colonial India.

Falls in focus: an analysis of the rate of falls in 25 Australian residential aged care facilities from 2019 to 2021, pre- and during COVID-19 lockdowns.

INTRODUCTION: During 2020-2021 Australia maintained comparatively low rates of COVID-19 in the community and residential aged care facilities (RAC) due to stringent public health measures such as lockdowns. However, the public health measures implemented may have had unintended impacts on critical RAC resident health outcomes, such as falls, due to routine care disruptions and aged care resident isolation. We utilised a longitudinal data to assess the association between COVID-19 lockdowns and the rate of falls in RAC settings. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conduct using routinely collected data from 25 RAC facilities from one non-profit aged care provider in Sydney, Australia. The study included 2,996 long term residents between March 2019 and March 2021. The outcome measures were all falls, injurious falls, and falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation. Generalised estimating equations (GEE) were applied to determine the association between COVID-19 lockdown periods and fall-related outcomes while adjusting for confounders and seasonality. RESULTS: During the study period 11,658 falls were recorded. Residents frequently experienced at least one fall during the study period (median: 1, interquartile range: 0-4). During Lockdown 1 (March-June 2020) the rate of all falls increased 32% (IRR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19-1.46, p < 0.01) and the rate of injurious falls increased by 28% (IRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.12-1.46, p < 0.01) compared to pre-pandemic rates. The rate of falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation remained unchanged during Lockdown 1 (IRR 1.07, 95% CI 0.86-1.32, p = 0.519). During Lockdown 2 (Dec 2020-Jan 2021) the rate of all falls, injurious falls, and falls assessed as requiring hospitalisation did not change significantly compared to pre-pandemic rates. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the consequences of stringent COVID-19 restrictions, as seen in Lockdown 1, produced changes in residents' care which contributed to more falls and associated harm. The subsequent lockdown, which were less restrictive and occurred after staff had gained experience, was associated with no significant increase in falls rate. The nature and extent of lockdowns implemented for infection control in RAC need to balance multiple potential adverse effects. Factors which facilitated resilience during this period require exploration in future research.

Association of the COVID-19 lockdown with health risk behaviors in South Korean adolescents.

Since there is no certainty about when the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown will be affected by health risk behaviors, so we investigate the effect of COVID-19-related health risk behavior changes using school-based self-reported data from a nationally representative South Korean adolescent population. We analyzed web-based self-reported data from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey in 111,878 participants (57,069 in COVID-19 prepandemic); 54,809 in during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study included 12 to 18-year-olds. Self-report questionnaires were used to assess socioeconomic status, health risk behaviors, and psychological factors. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol consumption, substance use, and sexual experience significantly decreased in COVID-19 pandemic than in COVID-19 prepandemic. Psychosomatic changes such as stress levels, violence experience, depression, suicidal ideation, suicidal plans, and suicide attempts were significantly lower in COVID-19 pandemic compared to COVID-19 prepandemic (P < .001). After adjusting for multiple confounding variables, less alcohol consumption (odds ratio [OR] = 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.88-0.93), less exercise (OR = 0.92; 95% CI = 0.89-0.94), less sexual experience (OR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.77-0.86), less violence experience (OR = 0.61; 95% CI = 0.55-0.67), less stress (OR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.84-0.88), less depression (OR = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.83-0.88), less suicidal ideation (OR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.89-0.97), plans (OR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88), attempts (OR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.71-0.85) were significantly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic compared to COVID-19 prepandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with changes in health risk behaviors among Korean adolescents, resulting in alcohol drinking, sexual experience, drug use, violence experience, and suicidal behaviors (idea, plan, and attempts) being decreased during the lockdown period.

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in USA.

Worldwide, governments imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic to contain the pandemic more effectively. We examined the effectiveness of individual NPIs in the United States during the first wave of the pandemic. Three types of analyses were performed. First, a prototypical Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to gauge the effectiveness of five NPIs and they are gathering restriction, restaurant capacity restriction, business closure, school closure, and stay-at-home order in the 42 states with over 100 deaths by the end of the wave. Second, we examined the effectiveness of the face mask mandate, the sixth and most controversial NPI by counterfactual modeling, which is a variant of the prototypical Bayesian hierarchical model allowing us to answer the question of what if the state had imposed the mandate or not. The third analysis used an advanced Bayesian hierarchical model to evaluate the effectiveness of all six NPIs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and thereby provide a full-scale estimation of the effectiveness of NPIs and the relative effectiveness of each NPI in the entire United States. Our results have enhanced the collective knowledge on the general effectiveness of NPIs in arresting the spread of COVID-19.

Focus, vigilance, resilience: towards stronger infectious disease surveillance, threat detection and response in the EU/EEA.

This perspective summarises and explains the long-term surveillance framework 2021-2027 for infectious diseases in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) published in April 2023. It shows how shortcomings in the areas of public health focus, vigilance and resilience will be addressed through specific strategies in the coming years and how these strategies will lead to stronger surveillance systems for early detection and monitoring of public health threats as well as informing their effective prevention and control. A sharper public health focus is expected from a more targeted list of notifiable diseases, strictly public-health-objective-driven surveillance standards, and consequently, leaner surveillance systems. Vigilance should improve through mandatory event reporting, more automated epidemic intelligence processing and increased use of genomic surveillance. Finally, EU/EEA surveillance systems should become more resilient by modernising the underlying information technology infrastructure, expanding the influenza sentinel surveillance system to other respiratory viruses for better pandemic preparedness, and increasingly exploiting potentially more robust alternative data sources, such as electronic health records and wastewater surveillance. Continued close collaboration across EU/EEA countries will be key to ensuring the full implementation of this surveillance framework and more effective disease prevention and control.

Qualitative comparative analysis of policies implemented by 26 European countries during the 2020 great lockdown.

Introduction: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, from March 1 to April 15, 2020, significant variations emerged among countries regarding the implementation of lockdown policies. During this period, viewed strictly from an epidemiological perspective, lockdown measures are considered the most effective means of containing a pandemic. However, the adoption of such measures varied, raising questions about whether the reluctance or failure of countries to implement lockdown policies reflected a disregard for epidemiological knowledge or stemmed from an inability to enforce these measures. Methods: This article employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) with 26 European countries as case studies to investigate under what combination of conditions a country would implement lockdown policies. Results: The QCA results identify three distinct combinations of conditions that lead countries to implement lockdown measures. First, countries with relatively concentrated political power are more likely to implement lockdown policies. Among the 10 countries governed by a majority party or majority coalition within a two-party or moderate multi-party system, seven implemented lockdown policies. Second, in cases of relatively dispersed political power, countries facing state fragility risks are more likely to implement lockdown policies. Among the eight countries that meet both conditions, five implemented lockdown policies. Finally, factors such as political heritage, severity of the pandemic, demographic composition, healthcare access, quality standards, and the ruling party's ideology play a lesser role in the decision to enact lockdown measures. Discussion: This article offers a novel perspective on the dynamics of party politics and state capacity in the context of decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. It contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between political systems and public health crisis management, highlighting how various political and governance factors influence the adoption of public health interventions during crises.

Study on health education methods based on rural residents' infectious disease-specific health literacy in Shandong, China.

Adequate infectious disease-specific health literacy (IDSHL) is of benefit to residents in dealing with infectious diseases. This study aimed to investigate the methods by which residents acquire knowledge about infectious disease prevention and control (IDPC knowledge) so as to find effective health education methods used to improve residents' IDSHL level. In 2022, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Shandong Province, China. Participants were recruited from rural areas by multistage sampling. The IDPC knowledge cognitive questionnaire, as a reliable and valid tool, was applied to data collection and to investigate the participants' IDPC knowledge. Chi-square analysis was utilized to analyze the differences in possession level of IDSHL between different subgroups. The relationship between demographic factors and methods to acquire IDPC knowledge was also examined by chi-square analysis. The possession rate of adequate IDSHL among the total 2283 participants was 31.80%. There was a significant association between IDSHL level and socio-demographic factors, including age (P < .001), sex (P = .02), education (P < .001), occupation (P < .001), annual family income (P < .001), whether to use smartphones (P < .001), whether to browse WeChat on smartphones (P < .001), and whether to browse apps on smartphones except WeChat (P < .001). Univariate analysis showed that whether to adopt specific methods, including television (P = .02), WeChat on smartphones (P < .001), propaganda of infectious disease prevention and control (P < .001), and doctor's advice (P < .001) to acquire IDPC knowledge had significant associations with IDSHL level. Age (P < .001), education (P < .05), occupation (P < .05), and annual family income (P < .01) were associated with methods to acquire IDPC knowledge. The rural residents' adequate IDSHL in Shandong Province, China, was not optimistic. The combination of traditional methods and Internet publicity platforms should take greater responsibility for IDSHL health education among rural populations.

Short, stringent lockdowns halted SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in Danish municipalities.

In late 2020, the focus of the global effort against the COVID-19 pandemic centered around the development of a vaccine, when reports of a mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus variant in a population of 17 million farmed mink came from Denmark, threatening to jeopardize this effort. Spillover infections of the new variant between mink and humans were feared to threaten the efficacy of upcoming vaccines. In this study the ensuing short-lived yet stringent lockdowns imposed in 7 of the countries 98 municipalities are analysed for their effectiveness to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections. Synthetic counterfactuals are created for each of these municipalities using a weighted average combination of the remaining municipalities not targeted by the stringent measures. This allows for a clear overview regarding the development of test-positivity rates, citizen mobility behaviours and lastly daily infection numbers in response to the restrictions. The findings show that these targeted, short-term lockdowns significantly curtailed further infections, demonstrating a marked decrease, first in citizens mobility and then in daily cases when compared to their synthetic counterfactuals. Overall, the estimates indicate average reductions to infection numbers to be around 31%. This study underscores the potential of strict, yet severe lockdowns in breaking ongoing infection dynamics, by utilising a rare quasi-experimental design case that avoids bias introduced through treatment selection.

Clinical Management of Hospitalized Patients With High-Consequence Infectious Diseases in England.

Infectious disease physicians in England have been diagnosing and managing occasional cases of viral hemorrhagic fever since 1971, including the United Kingdom's first case of Ebola virus disease in 1976. Specialist isolation facilities to provide safe and effective care have been present since that time. Following the emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012, and the avian influenza A (H7N9) outbreak in 2013, and the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa, clinical and public health preparedness and response pathways in England have been strengthened for these types of diseases, now called high-consequence infectious diseases (HCIDs). The HCID program, led by NHS England and Public Health England between 2016 and 2018, helped to deliver these enhancements, which have since been used on multiple occasions for new UK cases and outbreaks of MERS, mpox, avian influenza, and Lassa fever. Additionally, HCID pathways were activated for COVID-19 during the first 3 months of 2020, before the pandemic had been declared and little was known about COVID-19 but HCID status had been assigned temporarily to COVID-19 as a precaution. The HCID program also led to the commissioning of a network of new airborne HCID treatment centers in England, to supplement the existing network of contact HCID treatment centers, which includes the United Kingdom's only 2 high-level isolation units. In this case study, the authors describe the airborne and contact HCID treatment center networks in England, including their formation and structures, their approach to safe and effective clinical management of patients with HCIDs in the United Kingdom, and challenges they may face going forward.

The Role of High-Level Isolation Units in Response to High-Consequence and Emerging Infectious Diseases: Experience of the German STAKOB Network.

This case study describes the experience of the German Permanent Working Group of Competence and Treatment Centers for High Consequence Infectious Diseases, known as STAKOB (Ständiger Arbeitskreis der Kompetenz- und Behandlungszentren für Krankheiten durch hochpathogene Erreger). STAKOB brings together public health authorities (competence centers) and high-level isolation units (treatment centers) to collaborate on the clinical management of high-consequence infectious diseases (HCIDs) and emerging infectious diseases. The network is coordinated by the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's federal public health institute. The main tasks of STAKOB are to strengthen HCID clinical and public health management and increase expert knowledge on HCID and non-HCID emerging infectious diseases in Germany. STAKOB enables the exchange of knowledge and experiences; development of guidelines on infection prevention and control measures, clinical management, and therapy; and support for the World Health Organization and other outbreak responses internationally. The past years have shown how important the STAKOB network is for Germany-not only in providing critical care for HCID cases but also increasing capacity to support public health and clinical management of emerging infectious disease cases. However, maintaining several high-level isolation units in Germany requires a high commitment of financial, material, and human resources. Due to the rarity of HCID and emerging infectious disease events, maintaining the appropriate level of preparedness and ensuring sufficient investments is an ongoing struggle. Nevertheless, it is essential to have a network ready to react to HCID and non-HCID emerging infectious diseases in times of a changing biosecurity and infectious landscape.

Building a High-Level Isolation Unit in Rwanda and Establishing a Training Program for the Medical Management of Patients With High-Consequence Infectious Diseases.

Rwanda is a country in East Africa, a region characterized by highly mobile populations and outbreaks of high-consequence infectious diseases occurring on a regular basis. To increase the level of outbreak preparedness in the region, the Rwandan government and the German Ministry of Health signed a joint agreement to construct a new high-level isolation unit in Rwanda, the first in East Africa, and implement a training program for Rwandan healthcare workers to equip them with the necessary skills and knowledge for medical management of patients under high-level isolation conditions, including intensive care treatment. To better understand the scope and format of the planned training program, a needs assessment was performed based on findings from a standardized survey of 4 intensive care units in Rwanda as well as observations from 2 members of a German high-level isolation unit who completed clinical internships at Rwandan hospitals. In this case study, we describe the necessary steps to promote the sustainability and capabilities of the new high-level isolation unit in Kigali and ensure the successful implementation of the training program.

Clinical effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 on other nationally notifiable infectious diseases in South Korea.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: This study aimed to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic on nationally notifiable infectious diseases (NNIDs) in South Korea. METHODS: Long-term data on seven NNIDs from 2018 to 2021 were analyzed to identify trends and change points using a change point detection technique. The timings of the NPI implementations were compared to the identified change points to determine their association. RESULTS: Varicella, mumps, and scarlet fever showed a significant decrease in incidence following the implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. These diseases, which are primarily transmitted through respiratory droplets, demonstrated a clear response to NPIs. However, carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) showed an increasing trend unrelated to the timing of NPI implementation, suggesting the complex nature of controlling healthcare-associated infections. Hepatitis A, hepatitis C, and scrub typhus did not show significant changes associated with NPIs, likely due to their non-respiratory route of transmission. CONCLUSION: NPIs effectively controlled NNIDs, particularly those transmitted through respiratory infections. However, the impact varied depending on the disease. Understanding the effectiveness and limitations of NPIs is crucial for developing comprehensive public health strategies during infectious disease outbreaks.

COVID-19 prevention and control effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions-fuzzy-sets qualitative comparative analysis based on 69 countries in the world.

Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 occurred unexpectedly in late December 2019, it was difficult to immediately develop an effective vaccine or propose targeted medical interventions in the early stages of the outbreak. At this point, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential components of the public health response to COVID-19. How to combine different NPIs in the early stages of an outbreak to control the spread of epidemics and ensure that the policy combination does not incur high socio-economic costs became the focus of this study. Methods: We mainly used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to assess the impact of different combinations of NPIs on the effectiveness of control in the COVID-19 pandemic early stage, using open datasets containing case numbers, country populations and policy responses. Results: We showed that the configuration of high morbidity results includes one, which is the combination of non-strict face covering, social isolation and travel restrictions. The configuration of non-high morbidity results includes three, one is strict mask wearing measures, which alone constitute sufficient conditions for interpreting the results; the second is strict testing and contact tracing, social isolation; the third is strict testing and contact tracing, travel restriction. The results of the robustness test showed that the number, components and consistency of the configurations have not changed after changing the minimum case frequency, which proved that the analysis results are reliable. Conclusion: In the early stages of the epidemic, the causes of high morbidity are not symmetrical with the causes of non-high morbidity. Strict face covering is the most basic measure required to prevent and control epidemics, and the combination of non-strict face covering and containment is the most important factor leading to poor prevention and control, and the combination of strict containment and proactive pursuit is the way to achieve superior prevention and control, timely and proactive containment strategies have better prevention and control, and should mobilize the public to cooperate.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries.

PURPOSE: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor - COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker - OxCGRT. METHODS: NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5-25, and C4-C6, weeks 35-52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). RESULTS: During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. CONCLUSION: In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).

Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN.

This study aims to quantify the effectiveness of lockdown as a non-pharmacological solution for managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily COVID-19 death counts were collected for four states: California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina. The effectiveness of the lockdown was studied and the number of people saved during 7 days was evaluated. Five neural network models (MLP, FFNN, CFNN, ENN, and NARX) were implemented, and the results indicate that FFNN is the best prediction model. Based on this model, the total number of survivors over a 7-day period is 211, 270, 989, and 60 in California, Georgia, New Jersey, and South Carolina, respectively. The coefficients and weights of the FFNN for each state differ due to various factors, including socio-demographic conditions and the behavior of citizens towards lockdown laws. New Jersey and South Carolina have the most lockdowns and the least.

Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on quality-of-life and health services access by socio-economic status in Australia.

This study examined changes in physical and mental health quality-of-life and health services access before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic among individuals of lower and higher socio-economic status (SES) in Australia. Difference-in-differences and logistic regression models were undertaken using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey and government data on COVID-19 lockdowns between January 2020 and February 2021. Individuals from higher SES reported larger decreases in mental health quality-of-life scores than those from lower SES after the onset of the pandemic. Those from lower SES reported less disruption with any health services (24.2% vs 30.4%; OR = 0.68; p < 0.001), specifically dental services (8.2% vs 15.4%; OR = 0.51; p < 0.001) and allied health services (5.9% vs 8.5%; OR = 0.60; p < 0.001), compared with those from higher SES. Additional days under lockdown were associated with reduced access to all health services (OR = 1.19). Furthermore, long-term health conditions (higher SES: OR = 1.54) and scores indicative of poorer physical (lower SES: OR = 1.17; higher SES: OR = 1.07) and mental health (lower SES: OR = 1.16; higher SES: OR = 1.12) were associated with increased health services disruption. While individuals from higher SES were more likely than those from lower SES to experience greater relative declines in mental health and increased disruption with health services access, individuals with a greater apparent need for health services, regardless of SES, may have faced inequalities in accessing these services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemic control by social distancing and vaccination: Optimal strategies and remarks on the COVID-19 Italian response policy.

After the many failures in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying robust principles of epidemic control will be key in future preparedness. In this work, we propose an optimal control model of an age-of-infection transmission model under a two-phase control regime where social distancing is the only available control tool in the first phase, while the second phase also benefits from the arrival of vaccines. We analyzed the problem by an ad-hoc numerical algorithm under a strong hypothesis implying a high degree of prioritization to the protection of health from the epidemic attack, which we termed the "low attack rate" hypothesis. The outputs of the model were also compared with the data from the Italian COVID-19 experience to provide a crude assessment of the goodness of the enacted interventions prior to the onset of the Omicron variant.

Possible counter-intuitive impact of local vaccine mandates for vaccine-preventable infectious diseases.

We modeled the impact of local vaccine mandates on the spread of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, which in the absence of vaccines will mainly affect children. Examples of such diseases are measles, rubella, mumps, and pertussis. To model the spread of the pathogen, we used a stochastic SIR (susceptible, infectious, recovered) model with two levels of mixing in a closed population, often referred to as the household model. In this model, individuals make local contacts within a specific small subgroup of the population (e.g., within a household or a school class), while they also make global contacts with random people in the population at a much lower rate than the rate of local contacts. We considered what would happen if schools were given freedom to impose vaccine mandates on all of their pupils, except for the pupils that were exempt from vaccination because of medical reasons. We investigated first how such a mandate affected the probability of an outbreak of a disease. Furthermore, we focused on the probability that a pupil that was medically exempt from vaccination, would get infected during an outbreak. We showed that if the population vaccine coverage was close to the herd-immunity level, then both probabilities may increase if local vaccine mandates were implemented. This was caused by unvaccinated pupils possibly being moved to schools without mandates.