RESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Few reports have indicated the secular trend in the sudden cardiac death (SCD) incidence and pre-arrest comorbidities. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the trend of SCD incidence and its association with pre-arrest comorbidities. METHODS: This population-based cohort study analyzed Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) research database and identified SCD incidents by inspecting data from all emergency department visits from 2011 to 2018. The inclusion criteria were ICD-9:427.5 or 427.41, or ICD-10:I46.9, I46.8, or I46.2. Pre-existing comorbidities were confirmed based on medication use. Multivariable logistic regression was adopted with covariates age, sex, and pre-existing comorbidities. RESULTS: This study reviewed a total of 184,164,969 person-year records, and identified 92,138 SCD incidents. From 2011 to 2018, the SCD incidence rate increased from 36.3 to 55.4 per 100,000 enrollees in Taiwan. The top five pre-arrest comorbidities were stable, while the prevalence of chronic kidney disease rose significantly. Compared to those aged 20-29, enrollees aged >65 years had significantly higher odds of SCD (aOR:27.30, 95% CI:26.05-28.61). Higher odds of SCD were noted in the enrollees who had a seizure (aOR:2.24, 95% CI:2.12-2.38), parkinsonism (aOR:1.81, 95% CI:1.73-1.89), psychological disorders (aOR:1.59, 95% CI:1.56-1.62), diabetes mellitus (aOR:1.44, 95% CI:1.41-1.46), heart diseases (aOR:1.41, 95% CI:1.38-1.44). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of SCD steadily increased in Taiwan from 2011 to 2018. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, psychological disorders, and arthritis were major pre-arrest comorbidities. Age is the most important risk factor for SCD. Further large-scaled population-based study that investigated in diverse ethnicities from countries in addition to Asians would be warranted.
RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of intraosseous versus intravenous vascular access in the treatment of adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: The VICTOR (Venous Injection Compared To intraOsseous injection during resuscitation of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest) trial involved emergency medical service agencies with all four advanced life support ambulance teams in Taipei City, Taiwan. The enrolment period spanned 6 July 2020 to 30 June 2023 and was temporarily suspended between 20 May 2021 and 31 July 2021 owing to the covid-19 pandemic. PARTICIPANTS: Adult (age 20-80 years) patients with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. INTERVENTIONS: Biweekly randomised clusters of four participating advanced life support ambulance teams were assigned to insert either intravenous or intraosseous access. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes included return of spontaneous circulation, sustained return of spontaneous circulation (≥2 hours), and survival with favourable neurological outcomes (cerebral performance category score ≤2) at hospital discharge. RESULTS: Among 1771 enrolled patients, 1732 (741 in the intraosseous group and 991 in the intravenous group) were included in the primary analysis (median age 65.0 years; 1234 (71.2%) men). In the intraosseous group, 79 (10.7%) patients were discharged alive, compared with 102 (10.3%) patients in the intravenous group (odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 1.42; P=0.81). The odds ratio of intraosseous versus intravenous access was 1.23 (0.89 to 1.69; P=0.21) for pre-hospital return of spontaneous circulation, 0.92 (0.75 to 1.13; P=0.44) for sustained return of spontaneous circulation, and 1.17 (0.82 to 1.66; P=0.39) for survival with favourable neurological outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, initial attempts to establish vascular access through the intraosseous route did not result in different outcomes compared with intravenous access in terms of the proportion of patients surviving to hospital discharge, pre-hospital return of spontaneous circulation, sustained return of spontaneous circulation, and favourable neurological outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04135547ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04135547.
Asunto(s)
Infusiones Intraóseas , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario , Humanos , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario/terapia , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario/mortalidad , Femenino , Masculino , Infusiones Intraóseas/métodos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Adulto , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Taiwán/epidemiología , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia/métodos , Extremidad Superior , COVID-19 , Resultado del Tratamiento , Reanimación Cardiopulmonar/métodos , Adulto Joven , Inyecciones Intravenosas , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
PURPOSE: This study aimed to assess the prevalence and factors of physical, psychological, and social frailty among older adults in the emergency department, comparing these data with community population to understand emergency setting manifestations. METHODS: Conducted at the Emergency Department of National Taiwan University BioMedical Park Hospital, this prospective observational cohort study enrolled older adult patients over a three-month period. Frailty assessments included the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures scale for physical frailty, the Tilburg Frailty Indicator for psychological frailty, and the Makizako Social Frailty Index for social frailty. Data analysis involved a multivariable logistic model to determine the risk factors associated with each frailty type. RESULTS: Out of 991 older adult individuals seeking medical care, 207 participated in the study. The study found high prevalence rates of frailty: 46.38% for physical, 41.06% for psychological, and 48.79% for social frailty. Risk factors for frailty included older age and a history of falls. Interestingly, the prevalence of social frailty was notably higher than physical and psychological frailty. Gender and polypharmacy showed no significant association with any frailty type. CONCLUSION: This research reveals high physical, psychological, and social frailty among older ED patients, especially noting social frailty's prevalence. It highlights the importance for emergency care to adopt holistic care strategies that address older adults' multifaceted health challenges, suggesting a paradigm shift in current healthcare practices to better cater to the multifaceted needs of this vulnerable population.
RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Cette étude visait à évaluer la prévalence et les facteurs de la fragilité physique, psychologique et sociale chez les personnes âgées au service des urgences, en comparant ces données avec la population communautaire pour comprendre les manifestations en situation d'urgence. MéTHODES: Menée au service des urgences de l'hôpital BioMedical Park de l'Université nationale de Taiwan, cette étude prospective de cohorte observationnelle a recruté des patients adultes âgés sur une période de trois mois. Les évaluations de la fragilité comprenaient l'échelle de l'étude des fractures ostéoporotiques pour la fragilité physique, l'indicateur de la fragilité psychologique de Tilburg et l'indice de fragilité sociale de Makizako pour la fragilité sociale. L'analyse des données comportait un modèle logistique multivarié pour déterminer les facteurs de risque associés à chaque type de fragilité. RéSULTATS: Sur 991 personnes âgées ayant besoin de soins médicaux, 207 ont participé à l'étude. L'étude a révélé des taux de prévalence élevés de la fragilité : 46,38% pour le physique, 41,06% pour le psychologique et 48,79% pour la fragilité sociale. Les facteurs de risque de fragilité comprenaient un âge avancé et des antécédents de chute. Fait intéressant, la prévalence de la fragilité sociale était nettement plus élevée que la fragilité physique et psychologique. Le genre et la polypharmacie n'ont montré aucune association significative avec aucun type de fragilité. CONCLUSION: Cette recherche révèle une grande fragilité physique, psychologique et sociale chez les patients âgés aux urgences, en particulier la prévalence de la fragilité sociale. Il souligne l'importance pour les soins d'urgence d'adopter des stratégies de soins holistiques qui répondent aux défis de santé multiformes des personnes âgées, suggérant un changement de paradigme dans les pratiques de soins de santé actuelles pour mieux répondre aux besoins multiformes de cette population vulnérable.
Asunto(s)
Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Anciano Frágil , Fragilidad , Evaluación Geriátrica , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Anciano , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Prevalencia , Evaluación Geriátrica/métodos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Estudios Prospectivos , Fragilidad/epidemiología , Anciano Frágil/estadística & datos numéricos , Taiwán/epidemiología , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) is frequently performed in the patients who admitted to the emergency department (ED), discharged but returned to ED within 72 h. It is unknown whether the main complaints of patients assist physicians to use CT effectively. This study aimed to find the association between chief complaints and the CT results. METHODS: This three-year retrospective cohort study was conducted in the ED of a tertiary medical center. Adult patients who returned to the ED after the index visit were included from 2019 to 2021. Demographics, pre-existing diseases, chief complaints, and CT region were recorded by independent ED physicians. A logistic regression model with an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to determine the relationship between chief complaints and positive CT results. RESULTS: In total, 7,699 patients revisited ED after the index visit; 1,202 (15.6%) received CT. The top chief complaints in patients who received CT were abdominal pain, dizziness, and muscle weakness. Patients with abdominal pain or gastrointestinal symptoms had a significantly higher rate of positive abdominopelvic CT than those without it (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.98-4.05, p < 0.001), while the central nervous system and cardiopulmonary chief complaints were not associated (or negatively associated) with new positive CT findings. CONCLUSION: Chief complaints of patients on revisit to the ED are associated with different yields of new findings when CT scans of the chest, abdomen and head are performed. Physicians should consider these differential likelihoods of new positive findings based on these data.
Asunto(s)
Dolor Abdominal , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Dolor Abdominal/diagnóstico por imagen , Dolor Abdominal/etiología , Anciano , Mareo , Enfermedades Gastrointestinales/diagnóstico por imagenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: High-risk emergency department (ED) revisit is considered an important quality indicator that may reflect an increase in complications and medical burden. However, because of its multidimensional and highly complex nature, this factor has not been comprehensively investigated. This study aimed to predict high-risk ED revisit with a machine-learning (ML) approach. METHODS: This 3-year retrospective cohort study assessed adult patients between January 2019 and December 2021 from National Taiwan University Hospital Hsin-Chu Branch with high-risk ED revisit, defined as hospital or intensive care unit admission after ED return within 72 hours. A total of 150 features were preliminarily screened, and 79 were used in the prediction model. Deep learning, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and stacked ensemble algorithm were used. The stacked ensemble model combined multiple ML models and performed model stacking as a meta-level algorithm. Confusion matrix, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used to evaluate performance. RESULTS: Analysis was performed for 6282 eligible adult patients: 5025 (80.0%) in the training set and 1257 (20.0%) in the testing set. High-risk ED revisit occurred for 971 (19.3%) of training set patients vs 252 (20.1%) in the testing set. Leading predictors of high-risk ED revisit were age, systolic blood pressure and heart rate. The stacked ensemble model showed more favourable prediction performance (AUROC 0.82) than the other models: deep learning (0.69), random forest (0.78) and XGBoost (0.79). Also, the stacked ensemble model achieved favourable accuracy and specificity. CONCLUSION: The stacked ensemble algorithm exhibited better prediction performance in which the predictions were generated from different ML algorithms to optimally maximise the final set of results. Patients with older age and abnormal systolic blood pressure and heart rate at the index ED visit were vulnerable to high-risk ED revisit. Further studies should be conducted to externally validate the model.
Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Aprendizaje Automático , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Taiwán , Anciano , Prueba de Estudio Conceptual , Readmisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
Background: Studies have established that sex and age influence outcomes following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). However, a knowledge gap exists regarding their interaction. This study aimed to investigate the interaction of age and sex and how they cooperatively influence OHCA outcomes. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult, nontraumatic OHCA patients admitted to a university hospital and its affiliated hospitals in Taiwan from January 2017 to December 2021. Data including sex, age, body mass index, cardiac rhythm, and resuscitation information in the emergency department (ED) were collected from medical records. The study outcomes encompassed survival to intensive care unit (ICU) admission, survival to hospital discharge, and a favorable neurological outcome. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to estimate the influence of sex on study outcomes. Results: We analyzed a total of 2,826 eligible subjects categorized into three groups: young (18-44 years, 149 males and 57 females), middle-aged (45-64 years, 524 males and 188 females), and old (≥65 years, 1,049 males and 859 females). Analysis of the effects of sex according to age stratification showed that old males had higher odds for survival to ICU admission (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.21-1.83) and favorable neurological outcomes (OR: 2.74, 95% CI: 1.58-4.76) than did old females. Analysis of the effects of age according to sex stratification revealed that old males had lower odds for survival to hospital discharge (OR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.21-0.51) and favorable neurological outcomes (OR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16-0.43) than did young males. Old females also showed the same trend as males, with lower odds for survival to hospital discharge (OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17-0.78) and favorable neurological outcomes (OR: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05-0.25) than did young females. Conclusions: The interaction between sex and age in patients with OHCA results in diverse outcomes. Within the same sex, age demonstrated varying effects on distinct outcomes.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: This study compared the on-scene Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the GCS-motor (GCS-M) for predictive accuracy of mortality and severe disability using a large, multicenter population of trauma patients in Asian countries. OBJECTIVE: To compare the ability of the prehospital GCS and GCS-M to predict 30-day mortality and severe disability in trauma patients. DESIGN: We used the Pan-Asia Trauma Outcomes Study registry to enroll all trauma patients >18 years of age who presented to hospitals via emergency medical services from 1 January 2016 to November 30, 2018. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 16,218 patients were included in the analysis of 30-day mortality and 11â 653 patients in the analysis of functional outcomes. OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was 30-day mortality after injury, and the secondary outcome was severe disability at discharge defined as a Modified Rankin Scale (MRS) score ≥4. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) were compared between GCS and GCS-M for these outcomes. Patients with and without traumatic brain injury (TBI) were analyzed separately. The predictive discrimination ability of logistic regression models for outcomes (30-day mortality and MRS) between GCS and GCS-M is illustrated using AUROCs. MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome for 30-day mortality was 1.04% and the AUROCs and 95% confidence intervals for prediction were GCS: 0.917 (0.887-0.946) vs. GCS-M:0.907 (0.875-0.938), Pâ =â 0.155. The secondary outcome for poor functional outcome (MRSâ ≥â 4) was 12.4% and the AUROCs and 95% confidence intervals for prediction were GCS: 0.617 (0.597-0.637) vs. GCS-M: 0.613 (0.593-0.633), Pâ =â 0.616. The subgroup analyses of patients with and without TBI demonstrated consistent discrimination ability between the GCS and GCS-M. The AUROC values of the GCS vs. GCS-M models for 30-day mortality and poor functional outcome were 0.92 (0.821-1.0) vs. 0.92 (0.824-1.0) ( P â =â 0.64) and 0.75 (0.72-0.78) vs. 0.74 (0.717-0.758) ( P â =â 0.21), respectively. CONCLUSION: In the prehospital setting, on-scene GCS-M was comparable to GCS in predicting 30-day mortality and poor functional outcomes among patients with trauma, whether or not there was a TBI.
Asunto(s)
Escala de Coma de Glasgow , Heridas y Lesiones , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Asia , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/mortalidad , Lesiones Traumáticas del Encéfalo/diagnóstico , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Sistema de Registros , Curva ROC , Heridas y Lesiones/mortalidadRESUMEN
Objective: This study aims to describe out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) characteristics and trends before and during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Taiwan. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a 5-year interrupted time series analysis. Eligible adults with non-traumatic OHCAs from January 2017 to December 2021 in 3 hospitals (university medical center, urban second-tier hospital, and rural second-tier hospital) were retrospectively enrolled. Variables were extracted from the emergency medical service reports and medical records. The years 2020 and 2021 were defined as the COVID-19 pandemic period. Outcomes included survival to admission after a sustained return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital discharge, and good neurological outcomes (cerebral performance category score 1 or 2). Results: We analyzed 2819 OHCA, including 1227 from a university medical center, 617 from an urban second-tier hospital, and 975 from a rural second-tier hospital. The mean age was 71 years old, and 60% of patients were males. During the COVID-19 pandemic period, video-assisted endotracheal tube intubation replaced the traditional direct laryngoscopy intubation. The trends of outcomes in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods varied among different hospitals. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, the outcomes at the university medical center during the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly poorer in several respects. The survival rate on admission dropped from 44.6% to 39.4% (P = 0.037), and the survival rate to hospital discharge fell from 17.5% to 14.9% (P = 0.042). Additionally, there was a notable decrease in patients' good neurological outcomes, declining from 13.2% to 9.7% (P = 0.048). In contrast, the outcomes in urban and rural second-tier hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly differ from those in the pre-pandemic period. Conclusions: COVID-19 may alter some resuscitation management in OHCAs. There were no overall significant differences in outcomes before and during COVID-19 pandemic, but there were significant differences in outcomes when stratified by hospital types.
RESUMEN
AIMS: Acute cardiovascular (CV) emergencies are critical conditions that require urgent attention in the emergency department (ED). Failure to make a timely diagnosis may result in unscheduled ED revisits and severe outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with potentially missed acute CV emergencies. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective study enrolled adult patients who presented with chest pain and returned to the ED within 72 h. Demographic information, pre-existing medical conditions, chief complaints, triage level and vital signs, electrocardiography (ECG) reports, and laboratory data were collected from medical charts by independent physicians. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of acute CV diseases, including ACS, pulmonary embolism, unstable arrhythmia, acute decompensated heart failure, and aortic dissection. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the association between variables and acute CV emergencies. A total of 453 eligible patients were included, with 60 (13.2%) patients diagnosed as acute CV emergencies at the ED revisit. Risk factors for acute CV emergencies included male gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17-6.25), abnormal ECG rhythm (aOR = 10.33, 95% CI = 4.68-22.83), and abnormal changes in high sensitivity Troponin-T (hs-cTnT) during sequential follow-up (aOR = 6.52, 95% CI = 2.19-19.45). CONCLUSIONS: Male gender, abnormal ECG rhythm, and a significant increase in sequential follow-up hs-cTnT levels were identified as significant risk factors for acute CV emergencies. ED physicians should recognize these high-risk patients with chest pain to prevent misdiagnosis and potential severe complications.
Asunto(s)
Urgencias Médicas , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Dolor en el Pecho/diagnóstico , Dolor en el Pecho/epidemiología , Dolor en el Pecho/etiología , Electrocardiografía/métodos , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Troponina T , BiomarcadoresRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Data about changes in the characteristics of ED return visits before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are limited. This study aimed to report the differences on utility in ED return visits after the COVID-19 outbreak. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2019 to 2020. Adult patients with ED return visits were included in the analysis. Variables including demographic characteristics, pre-comorbidities, triage levels, vital signs, chief complaints, management, and diagnosis were recorded and confirmed via a manual assessment. RESULTS: The proportion of patients with ED visits decreased by 23%. Hence, that of patients with ED return visits also reduced from 2580 to 2020 patients (22%) after the COVID-19 outbreak. The average age (60-57.8 years) of patients with return visits was significantly younger, and the proportion of female patients decreased remarkably. Further, the proportion of patients with chronic pre-existing diseases at the return visit significantly differed after the COVID-19 outbreak. The proportion of patients with chief complaints including dizziness, dyspnea, cough, vomiting, diarrhea, and chills during the return visits significantly differed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In the multivariable logistic regression model, age, high triage level were significantly associated with unfavorable outcome return visit. CONCLUSION: The use of services in the ED has changed since the COVID-19 outbreak. Hence, the proportion of patients with unplanned return visits within 72 h decreased. After the COVID-19 outbreak, people are now cautious whether they should return to the ED, as in the pre-pandemic situation, or just treat conservatively at home.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , Adulto , Femenino , COVID-19/epidemiología , Readmisión del Paciente , Estudios Retrospectivos , Pandemias , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Brotes de EnfermedadesRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Injury is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children. However, the epidemiology and prehospital care for pediatric unintentional injuries in Asia are still unclear. METHODS: A total of 9,737 pediatric patients aged <18 years with unintentional injuries cared for at participating centers of the Pan-Asian Trauma Outcome Study (PATOS) from October 2015 to December 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were divided into two groups: those <8 and those ≥8 years of age. Variables such as patient demographics, injury epidemiology, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and prehospital care were collected. Injury severity and administered prehospital care stratified by gross national income were also analyzed. RESULTS: Pediatric unintentional injuries accounted for 9.4% of EMS-transported trauma cases in the participating Asian centers, and the mortality rate was 0.88%. The leading cause of injury was traffic injuries in older children aged ≥8 years (56.5%), while falls at home were common among young children aged <8 years (43.9%). Compared with younger children, older children with similar ISS tended to receive more prehospital interventions. Uneven disease severity was found in that older children in lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries had higher ISS compared with those in high-income countries. The performance of prehospital interventions also differed among countries with different gross national incomes. Immobilizations were the most performed prehospital intervention followed by oxygen administration, airway management, and pain control; only one patient received prehospital thoracentesis. Procedures were performed more frequently in high-income countries than in upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The major cause of injury was road traffic injuries in older children, while falls at home were common among young children. Prehospital care in pediatric unintentional injuries in Asian countries was not standardized and might be insufficient, and the economic status of countries may affect the implementation of prehospital care.
Asunto(s)
Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Heridas y Lesiones , Niño , Humanos , Adolescente , Preescolar , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estatus Económico , Asia/epidemiología , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud , Heridas y Lesiones/epidemiología , Heridas y Lesiones/terapia , Puntaje de Gravedad del TraumatismoRESUMEN
In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) in the emergency department (ED) is not uncommon but often fatal. Using the machine learning (ML) approach, we sought to predict ED-based IHCA (EDCA) in patients presenting to the ED based on triage data. We retrieved 733,398 ED records from a tertiary teaching hospital over a 7 year period (Jan. 1, 2009-Dec. 31, 2015). We included only adult patients (≥ 18 y) and excluded cases presenting as out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Primary outcome (EDCA) was identified via a resuscitation code. Patient demographics, triage data, and structured chief complaints (CCs), were extracted. Stratified split was used to divide the dataset into the training and testing cohort at a 3-to-1 ratio. Three supervised ML models were trained and performances were evaluated and compared to the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and logistic regression (LR) model by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We included 316,465 adult ED records for analysis. Of them, 636 (0.2%) developed EDCA. Of the constructed ML models, Random Forest outperformed the others with the best AUC result (0.931, 95% CI 0.911-0.949), followed by Gradient Boosting (0.930, 95% CI 0.909-0.948) and Extra Trees classifier (0.915, 95% CI 0.892-0.936). Although the differences between each of ML models and LR (AUC: 0.905, 95% CI 0.882-0.926) were not significant, all constructed ML models performed significantly better than using the NEWS2 scoring system (AUC 0.678, 95% CI 0.635-0.722). Our ML models showed excellent discriminatory performance to identify EDCA based only on the triage information. This ML approach has the potential to reduce unexpected resuscitation events if successfully implemented in the ED information system.
Asunto(s)
Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario , Adulto , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático , Modelos Logísticos , Triaje , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario/terapia , HospitalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between the carotid ultrasound results and 1-yr mortality of patients with neurological deficits in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This study included patients with neurological symptoms who presented to the ED between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, and underwent sonographic imaging of the bilateral carotid bulb, common carotid artery (CCA), internal carotid artery (ICA), and external carotid arteries. A stenosis degree of >50% was defined as significant carotid stenosis. Carotid plaque score (CPS) was calculated by adding the score of stenosis severity of all segments. The association between carotid ultrasound results and 1-yr mortality was investigated using the Cox regression model. RESULTS: The analysis included 7,961 patients (median age: 69 yr; men: 58.7%). Among them, 247 (3.1%) passed away from cardiovascular (CV)-related causes, and 746 (9.4%) died within a year. The mortality group presented with more significant carotid stenosis of the carotid bulb, CCA, or ICA and had a higher median CPS. A higher CPS was associated with a greater 1-yr all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-1.13; p = 0.001; log-rank p < 0.001) and CV-related mortality (aHR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.04-1.22; p = 0.002, log-rank p < 0.001). Significant stenosis of either carotid artery segment did not result in a higher risk of 1-yr mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We comprehensively investigated the utility of carotid ultrasound parameters on predicting mortality in this 10-yr population-based cohort, which included over 7,000 patients with acute neurological deficits presented to the ED. The result showed that CPS could be used as risk stratification tools for 1-yr all-cause and CV mortality.
Asunto(s)
Arteria Carótida Interna , Estenosis Carotídea , Masculino , Humanos , Anciano , Arteria Carótida Interna/diagnóstico por imagen , Estudios de Cohortes , Ultrasonografía de las Arterias Carótidas , Constricción Patológica , Arteria Carótida Común/diagnóstico por imagen , Arteria Carótida Externa/diagnóstico por imagenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Termination-of-resuscitation rules (TORRs) in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients have been applied in western countries; in Asia, two TORRs were developed and have not been externally validated widely. We aimed to externally validate the TORRs using the registry of Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS). METHODS: PAROS enrolled 66,780 OHCA patients in seven Asian countries from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2012. The American Heart Association-Basic Life Support and AHA-ALS (AHA-BLS), AHA-Advanced Life Support (AHA-ALS), Goto, and Shibahashi TORRs were selected. The diagnostic test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated. We further determined the most suitable TORR in Asia and analysed the variable differences between subgroups. RESULTS: We included 55,064 patients in the final analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and AUC, respectively, for AHA-BLS, AHA-ALS, Goto, Shibashi TORRs were 79.0%, 80.0%, 19.6%, 98.5%, and 0.80; 48.6%, 88.3%, 9.8%, 98.5%, and 0.60; 53.8%, 91.4%, 11.2%, 99.0%, and 0.73; and 35.0%, 94.2%, 8.4%, 99.0%, and 0.65. In countries using the Goto TORR with PPV<99%, OHCA patients were younger, had more males, a higher rate of shockable rhythm, witnessed collapse, pre-hospital defibrillation, and survival to discharge, compared with countries using the Goto TORR with PPV ≥99%. CONCLUSIONS: There was no single TORR fit for all Asian countries. The Goto TORR can be considered the most suitable; however, a high predictive performance with PPV ≥99% was not achieved in three countries using it (Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan).
Asunto(s)
Reanimación Cardiopulmonar , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario , Asia , Estudios Transversales , Humanos , Masculino , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario/terapia , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The association between out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patient survival and advanced life support response time remained controversial. We aimed to test the hypothesis that for adult, non-traumatic, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, a shorter advanced life support response time is associated with a better chance of survival. We analyzed Utstein-based registry data on adult, non-traumatic, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients in Taipei from 2011 to 2015. METHODS: Patients without complete data, witnessed by emergency medical technicians, or with response times of ≥ 15 minutes, were excluded. We used logistic regression with an exposure of advanced life support response time. Primary and secondary outcomes were survival to hospital discharge and favorable neurological outcomes (cerebral performance category ≤ 2), respectively. Subgroup analyses were based on presenting rhythms of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and witness status. RESULTS: A total of 4,278 cases were included in the final analysis. The median advanced life support response time was 9 minutes. For every minute delayed in advanced life support response time, the chance of survival to hospital discharge would reduce by 7% and chance of favorable neurological outcome by 9%. Subgroup analysis showed that a longer advanced life support response time was negatively associated with the chance of survival to hospital discharge among out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with shockable rhythm and pulse electrical activity groups. CONCLUSIONS: In non-traumatic, adult, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients in Taipei, a longer advanced life support response time was associated with declining odds of survival to hospital discharge and favorable neurologic outcomes, especially in patients presenting with shockable rhythm and pulse electrical activity.
Asunto(s)
Reanimación Cardiopulmonar , Servicios Médicos de Urgencia , Paro Cardíaco Extrahospitalario , Adulto , Cardioversión Eléctrica , Humanos , Tiempo de Reacción , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMEN
Evidence regarding the recurrence of diverticulitis is limited in Asian patients. This study aims to investigate recurrence rates and identify predictive factors for the recurrence of diverticulitis following successful nonoperative treatment in Asian patients. A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2012 and 2018. Adult patients with computed tomography (CT)-proven colonic diverticulitis were included. The primary outcome was the recurrence of diverticulitis, which was defined as another episode of occurrence of the infection after index hospital stay. Cumulative recurrence rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression models were employed to identify parameters that significantly and independently predicted recurrence. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A total of 929 patients were included. Diverticulitis in the cecum/ascending occurred in 675 (72.6%) patients. The average follow-up period was 651 days. Recurrence was observed in 115 (12.4%) patients and most significantly observed in patients with sigmoid diverticulitis (HR, 2.24; 95% CIs 1.59-3.97), followed by those with descending colon diverticulitis (HR, 1.92; 95% CIs 1.17-3.25). Although most of the Asian patients had right-sided colonic diverticulitis, those with sigmoid diverticulitis had the highest risk of recurrence.
Asunto(s)
Diverticulitis del Colon , Diverticulitis , Adulto , Diverticulitis del Colon/diagnóstico por imagen , Diverticulitis del Colon/epidemiología , Diverticulitis del Colon/cirugía , Humanos , Recurrencia , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Although infection was the most common symptom in patients returning to the ED, whether intravenous antibiotic administration at the index visit could serve as an indicator of patients with infectious diseases at high risk for hospital admission after returning to the ED within a short period of time remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors for hospital admission in patients returning to the ED within 72 hours with a final diagnosis of infectious diseases. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study analyzed return visits to the ED from January to December 2019. Adult patients aged >20 years who had a return visit to the ED within 72 hours with an infectious disease were included herein. In total, 715 eligible patients were classified into the intravenous antibiotics and non-intravenous antibiotics group (reference group). The outcome studied was hospital admission to general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) at the return visits. RESULTS: Patients receiving intravenous antibiotics at index visits had significantly higher risk-approximately two times-for hospital admission at the return visits than those did not (adjusted odds ratio = 2.47, 95% CI = 1.34-4.57, p = 0.004). For every 10 years increase in age, the likelihood for hospital admission increased by 38%. Other factors included abnormal respiratory rate and high C-reactive protein levels. CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous antibiotic administration at the index visit was an independent risk factor for hospital admission at return visits in patients with an infection disease. Physicians should consider carefully before discharging patients receiving intravenous antibiotics.