Demographic resilience may sustain significant coral populations in a 2°C-warmer world.

Projections of coral reefs under climate change have important policy implications, but most analyses have focused on the intensification of climate-related physical stress rather than explicitly modelling how coral populations respond to stressors. Here, we analyse the future of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) under multiple, spatially realistic drivers which allows less impacted sites to facilitate recovery. Under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 CMIP5 climate ensemble, where warming is capped at ~2°C, GBR mean coral cover declined mid-century but approached present-day levels towards 2100. This is considerably more optimistic than most analyses. However, under RCP4.5, mean coral cover declined by >80% by late-century, and reached near zero under RCP ≥6.0. While these models do not allow for adaptation, they significantly extend past studies by revealing demographic resilience of coral populations to low levels of additional warming, though more pessimistic outcomes might be expected under CMIP6. Substantive coral populations under RCP2.6 would facilitate long-term genetic adaptation, adding value to ambitious greenhouse emissions mitigation.

Setting sustainable limits on anchoring to improve the resilience of coral reefs.

Boat anchoring is common at coral reefs that have high economic or social value, but anchoring has received relatively little attention in reef resilience studies. We developed an individual-based model of coral populations and simulated the effects of anchor damage over time. The model allowed us to estimate the carrying capacity of anchoring for four different coral assemblages and different starting levels of coral cover. The carrying capacity of small to medium-sized recreational vessels across these four assemblages was between 0 and 3.1 anchor strikes ha-1 day-1. In a case study of two Great Barrier Reef archipelagos, we modelled the benefits of anchoring mitigation under bleaching regimes expected for four climate scenarios. The partial mitigation of even a very mild anchoring incidence (1.17 strikes ha-1 day-1) resulted in median coral gains of 2.6-7.7 % absolute cover under RCP2.6, though benefits varied temporally and depended on the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model used.

High light alongside elevated PCO2 alleviates thermal depression of photosynthesis in a hard coral (Pocillopora acuta).

The absorbtion of human-emitted CO2 by the oceans (elevated PCO2 ) is projected to alter the physiological performance of coral reef organisms by perturbing seawater chemistry (i.e. ocean acidification). Simultaneously, greenhouse gas emissions are driving ocean warming and changes in irradiance (through turbidity and cloud cover), which have the potential to influence the effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs. Here, we explored whether physiological impacts of elevated PCO2  on a coral-algal symbiosis (Pocillopora acuta-Symbiodiniaceae) are mediated by light and/or temperature levels. In a 39 day experiment, elevated PCO2  (962 versus 431 µatm PCO2 ) had an interactive effect with midday light availability (400 versus 800 µmol photons m-2 s-1) and temperature (25 versus 29°C) on areal gross and net photosynthesis, for which a decline at 29°C was ameliorated under simultaneous high-PCO2  and high-light conditions. Light-enhanced dark respiration increased under elevated PCO2  and/or elevated temperature. Symbiont to host cell ratio and chlorophyll a per symbiont increased at elevated temperature, whilst symbiont areal density decreased. The ability of moderately strong light in the presence of elevated PCO2  to alleviate the temperature-induced decrease in photosynthesis suggests that higher substrate availability facilitates a greater ability for photochemical quenching, partially offsetting the impacts of high temperature on the photosynthetic apparatus. Future environmental changes that result in moderate increases in light levels could therefore assist the P. acuta holobiont to cope with the 'one-two punch' of rising temperatures in the presence of an acidifying ocean.