Risk Factors, Morbidity, and Mortality in Association With Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry and Restrictive Spirometric Pattern: Clinical Relevance of Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry and Restrictive Spirometric Pattern.

BACKGROUND: Preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and restrictive spirometric pattern (RSP) are often considered interchangeable in identifying restrictive impairment in spirometry. RESEARCH QUESTION: Do PRISm and RSP have different individual associations with risk factors, morbidity, and mortality? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In a cross-sectional and longitudinal study, including 26,091 Norwegian general population men (30 to 46 years of age), we explored the association of PRISm and RSP with smoking habits, BMI, education, respiratory symptoms, self-reported cardiopulmonary disease, and mortality after 26 years of follow-up. PRISm was defined as FEV1/FVC ≥ lower limit of normal (LLN) and FEV1 < LLN, and RSP was defined as FEV1/FVC ≥ LLN and FVC < LLN. We compared the associations of PRISm and RSP to airflow obstruction and normal spirometry, both as mutually (PRISm alone, RSP alone) and nonmutually exclusive (PRISm, RSP) categories, adjusting for age, BMI, smoking, and education. We also conducted sensitivity analyses using Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criteria to define spirometric abnormalities. RESULTS: The prevalence of the mutually exclusive spirometric patterns was as follows: normal 82.4%, obstruction 11.0%, PRISm alone 1.4%, RSP alone 1.7%, and PRISm + RSP 3.5%. PRISm alone patients were frequently obese (11.2%), had active or previous tobacco use, commonly reporting cough, phlegm, wheeze, asthma, and bronchitis. RSP alone patients were both obese (14.6%) and underweight (2.9%), with increased breathlessness, but similar smoking habits to patients with normal spirometry. The prevalence of heart disease was 4.6% in PRISm alone, 2.7% in RSP alone, and 1.6% in obstruction. With normal spirometry as a reference, RSP alone had increased all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21-2.04), cardiovascular (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 0.88-2.48), diabetes (HR, 6.43; 95% CI, 1.88-21.97), and cancer (excluding lung) mortality (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.95-2.42). PRISm alone had increased respiratory disease mortality (HR, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.22-13.16). Patients with PRISm + RSP had intermediate characteristics and the worst prognosis. Findings were overall confirmed with nonmutually exclusive categories and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criteria. INTERPRETATION: PRISm and RSP are spirometric patterns with distinct risk factors, morbidity, and mortality, which should be differentiated in future studies.

Outcome-based Definition of the Lower Limit of Normal in Spirometry: A Study of 26,000 Young Adult Men.

Rationale: The definition of the lower limit of normal (LLN) of spirometric variables is not well established. Objectives: To investigate the relationship between spirometric abnormalities defined with different thresholds of the LLN and clinical outcomes and to explore the possibility of using different LLN thresholds according to the pretest probability of disease. Methods: We studied the associations between prebronchodilator spirometric abnormalities (forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] < LLN, forced vital capacity [FVC] < LLN, airflow obstruction, spirometric restriction) defined with different thresholds of the LLN (10th, 5th, 2.5th, 1st percentile) and multiple outcomes (prevalence of spirometric abnormalities, respiratory symptoms, all-cause and respiratory mortality) in 26,091 30- to 46-year-old men who participated in a general population survey in Norway in 1988-1990 and were followed for 26 years. Analyses were performed with both local and Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI)-2012 reference equations, stratified by pretest risk (presence or absence of respiratory symptoms), and adjusted for age, body mass index, smoking, and education. Results: In the total population, the prevalence of airflow obstruction was 11.6% with GLI-LLN10, 11.0% with Local-LLN5, 6.1% with GLI-LLN5, 7.6% with Local-LLN2.5, and 3.5% with GLI-LLN2.5. The prevalence of spirometric restriction was 5.9% with GLI-LLN10, 5.2% with Local-LLN5, and 2.8% with GLI-LLN5. Increasingly lower thresholds of the LLN were associated with increasingly higher odds of respiratory symptoms and hazard of mortality for all spirometric abnormalities with both reference equations. Spirometric abnormalities defined with Local-LLN2.5 in asymptomatic subjects were associated with lower hazard of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.95 for FEV1 < LLN) than those defined with Local-LLN5 in the general population (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.50-1.87 for FEV1 < LLN) and symptomatic subjects (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.46-1.91 for FEV1 < LLN). Overall, the prevalence of spirometric abnormalities and associations with outcomes obtained with Local-LLN5 were comparable to those obtained with GLI-LLN10 and those obtained with Local-LLN2.5 to GLI-LLN5. Conclusions: There is a relationship between statistically based thresholds of the LLN of spirometric variables and clinical outcomes. Different thresholds of the LLN may be used in different risk subgroups of subjects, but the choice of the threshold needs to be evaluated together with the choice of reference equations.

Reduced lung function and cause-specific mortality: A population-based study of Norwegian men followed for 26 years.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Reduced lung function is associated with increased mortality, but it is unclear how different spirometric patterns are related to specific deaths. Aim of this study was to investigate these associations in a large general population cohort. METHODS: The study population consisted of 26,091 men aged 30-46 years from the Pneumoconiosis Survey of Western Norway conducted in 1988-1990 with follow-up on date and cause of death for 26 years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between baseline FEV1, FVC, obstructive (OSP) and restrictive spirometric pattern (RSP) (z-scores calculated according to GLI-2012 equations) and mortality (European 2012 shortlist classification (E-2012)), after adjustment for age, body mass index, smoking habits, and education. RESULTS: In total, 2462 (9%) subjects died. A predominant reduction of FEV1 (and OSP) were associated with respiratory non-cancer (E-8) (HR for one unit FEV1 z-score decrease 2.29 (95% CI 1.90, 2.77) and lung cancer mortality (E-2.1.8) (1.27(1.12, 1.44)). A similar reduction of FEV1 and FVC (and RSP) were associated with diabetes (E-4.1) (FEV1 2.21(1.67, 2.92), FVC 2.41(1.75, 3.32)), cerebrovascular (E-7.3) (1.52(1.21, 1.91), 1.54(1.19, 1.98)), ischemic heart disease (E-7.1) (1.22(1.10, 1.35), 1.21(1.08, 1.36)), neurological (E-6.3) (1.56(1.21, 2.01), 1.61(1.22, 2.13)), suicide (E-17.2) (1.37(1.13, 1.65), 1.29(1.04, 1.59)) and hematological cancer mortality (E-2.1.19-21) (1.29(1.05, 1.58), (1.26(1.00, 1.58)). No association was found between reduced lung function and mortality due to accidents, alcohol abuse, digestive and genitourinary cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Spirometric obstruction was mainly related to pulmonary mortality. Spirometric restriction was mainly related to extra-pulmonary mortality.

Polygenic risk scores identify heterogeneity in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have distinct and overlapping genetic and clinical features. OBJECTIVE: We sought to test the hypothesis that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for asthma (PRSAsthma) and spirometry (FEV1 and FEV1/forced vital capacity; PRSspiro) would demonstrate differential associations with asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO). METHODS: We developed and tested 2 asthma PRSs and applied the higher performing PRSAsthma and a previously published PRSspiro to research (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study and Childhood Asthma Management Program, with spirometry) and electronic health record-based (Mass General Brigham Biobank and Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging [GERA]) studies. We assessed the association of PRSs with COPD and asthma using modified random-effects and binary-effects meta-analyses, and ACO and asthma exacerbations in specific cohorts. Models were adjusted for confounders and genetic ancestry. RESULTS: In meta-analyses of 102,477 participants, the PRSAsthma (odds ratio [OR] per SD, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.14-1.19]) and PRSspiro (OR per SD, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]) both predicted asthma, whereas the PRSspiro predicted COPD (OR per SD, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.21-1.30]). However, results differed by cohort. The PRSspiro was not associated with COPD in GERA and Mass General Brigham Biobank. In the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD study, the PRSAsthma (OR per SD: Whites, 1.3; African Americans, 1.2) and PRSspiro (OR per SD: Whites, 2.2; African Americans, 1.6) were both associated with ACO. In GERA, the PRSAsthma was associated with asthma exacerbations (OR, 1.18) in Whites; the PRSspiro was associated with asthma exacerbations in White, LatinX, and East Asian participants. CONCLUSIONS: PRSs for asthma and spirometry are both associated with ACO and asthma exacerbations. Genetic prediction performance differs in research versus electronic health record-based cohorts.

X chromosome associations with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and related phenotypes: an X chromosome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: The association between genetic variants on the X chromosome to risk of COPD has not been fully explored. We hypothesize that the X chromosome harbors variants important in determining risk of COPD related phenotypes and may drive sex differences in COPD manifestations. METHODS: Using X chromosome data from three COPD-enriched cohorts of adult smokers, we performed X chromosome specific quality control, imputation, and testing for association with COPD case-control status, lung function, and quantitative emphysema. Analyses were performed among all subjects, then stratified by sex, and subsequently combined in meta-analyses. RESULTS: Among 10,193 subjects of non-Hispanic white or European ancestry, a variant near TMSB4X, rs5979771, reached genome-wide significance for association with lung function measured by FEV1/FVC ([Formula: see text] 0.020, SE 0.004, p 4.97 × 10-08), with suggestive evidence of association with FEV1 ([Formula: see text] 0.092, SE 0.018, p 3.40 × 10-07). Sex-stratified analyses revealed X chromosome variants that were differentially trending in one sex, with significantly different effect sizes or directions. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation identified loci influencing lung function, COPD, and emphysema in a comprehensive genetic association meta-analysis of X chromosome genetic markers from multiple COPD-related datasets. Sex differences play an important role in the pathobiology of complex lung disease, including X chromosome variants that demonstrate differential effects by sex and variants that may be relevant through escape from X chromosome inactivation. Comprehensive interrogation of the X chromosome to better understand genetic control of COPD and lung function is important to further understanding of disease pathology. Trial registration Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study (COPDGene) is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00608764 (Active since January 28, 2008). Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints Study (ECLIPSE), GlaxoSmithKline study code SCO104960, is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00292552 (Active since February 16, 2006). Genetics of COPD in Norway Study (GenKOLS) holds GlaxoSmithKline study code RES11080, Genetics of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease.

Association of respiratory symptoms and lung function with occupation in the multinational Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has been associated with exposures in the workplace. We aimed to assess the association of respiratory symptoms and lung function with occupation in the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data from 28 823 adults (≥40 years) in 34 countries. We considered 11 occupations and grouped them by likelihood of exposure to organic dusts, inorganic dusts and fumes. The association of chronic cough, chronic phlegm, wheeze, dyspnoea, forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/FVC with occupation was assessed, per study site, using multivariable regression. These estimates were then meta-analysed. Sensitivity analyses explored differences between sexes and gross national income. RESULTS: Overall, working in settings with potentially high exposure to dusts or fumes was associated with respiratory symptoms but not lung function differences. The most common occupation was farming. Compared to people not working in any of the 11 considered occupations, those who were farmers for ≥20 years were more likely to have chronic cough (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.19-1.94), wheeze (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.16-1.63) and dyspnoea (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.53-2.20), but not lower FVC (ß=0.02 L, 95% CI -0.02-0.06 L) or lower FEV1/FVC (ß=0.04%, 95% CI -0.49-0.58%). Some findings differed by sex and gross national income. CONCLUSION: At a population level, the occupational exposures considered in this study do not appear to be major determinants of differences in lung function, although they are associated with more respiratory symptoms. Because not all work settings were included in this study, respiratory surveillance should still be encouraged among high-risk dusty and fume job workers, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Respiratory symptoms and cardiovascular causes of deaths: A population-based study with 45 years of follow-up.

This study determined the association between respiratory symptoms and death from cardiovascular (CV) diseases during 45 years in a pooled sample of four cohorts of random samples of the Norwegian population with 95,704 participants. Respiratory symptoms were assessed using a modification of the MRC questionnaire on chronic bronchitis. We analyzed the association between respiratory symptoms and specific cardiovascular deaths by using Cox regression analysis with age as the time variable, accounting for cluster-specific random effects using shared frailty for study cohort. Hazard ratios (HR) for death were adjusted for sex, highest attained education, smoking habits, occupational air pollution, and birth cohort. Overall, 12,491 (13%) of participants died from CV diseases: 4,123 (33%) acute myocardial infarction, 2,326 (18%) other ischemic heart disease, 2,246 (18%) other heart diseases, 2,553 (20%) cerebrovascular diseases, and 1,120 (9%) other vascular diseases. The adjusted HR (95% confidence interval) for CV deaths was 1.9 (1.7-2.1) in men and 1.5 (1.2-1.9) in women for "yes" to the question "Are you breathless when you walk on level ground at an ordinary pace?". The same item response showed an adjusted HR for death from acute myocardial infarction of 1.8 (1.5-2.1), other ischemic heart disease 2.2 (1.8-2.7), other heart diseases 1.5 (1.1-1.9), cerebrovascular disease 1.8 (1.5-2.3), and other circulatory diseases 1.7 (1.2-2.4). The adjusted HR for CV death was 1.3 (1.2-1.4) when answering positive to the question" Are you more breathless than people of your own age when walking uphill?". However, positive answers to questions on cough, phlegm, wheezing and attacks of breathlessness were after adjustments not associated with early CV deaths. The associations between CV deaths and breathlessness were also present in never smokers. Self-reported breathlessness was associated with CV deaths and could be an early marker of CV deaths.

A genome-wide association study of bronchodilator response in participants of European and African ancestry from six independent cohorts.

Introduction: Bronchodilator response (BDR) is a measurement of acute bronchodilation in response to short-acting ß2-agonists, with a heritability between 10 and 40%. Identifying genetic variants associated with BDR may lead to a better understanding of its complex pathophysiology. Methods: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BDR in six adult cohorts with participants of European ancestry (EA) and African ancestry (AA) including community cohorts and cohorts ascertained on the basis of obstructive pulmonary disease. Validation analysis was carried out in two paediatric asthma cohorts. Results: A total of 10 623 EA and 3597 AA participants were included in the analyses. No single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) was associated with BDR at the conventional genome-wide significance threshold (p<5×10-8). Performing fine mapping and using a threshold of p<5×10-6 to identify suggestive variants of interest, we identified three SNPs with possible biological relevance: rs35870000 (within FREM1), which may be involved in IgE- and IL5-induced changes in airway smooth muscle cell responsiveness; rs10426116 (within ZNF284), a zinc finger protein, which has been implicated in asthma and BDR previously; and rs4782614 (near ATP2C2), involved in calcium transmembrane transport. Validation in paediatric cohorts yielded no significant SNPs, possibly due to age-genotype interaction effects. Conclusion: Ancestry-stratified and ancestry-combined GWAS meta-analyses of over 14 000 participants did not identify genetic variants associated with BDR at the genome-wide significance threshold, although a less stringent threshold identified three variants showing suggestive evidence of association. A common definition and protocol for measuring BDR in research may improve future efforts to identify variants associated with BDR.

Genetic Associations and Architecture of Asthma-COPD Overlap.

BACKGROUND: Some people have characteristics of both asthma and COPD (asthma-COPD overlap), and evidence suggests they experience worse outcomes than those with either condition alone. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the genetic architecture of asthma-COPD overlap, and do the determinants of risk for asthma-COPD overlap differ from those for COPD or asthma? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study in 8,068 asthma-COPD overlap case subjects and 40,360 control subjects without asthma or COPD of European ancestry in UK Biobank (stage 1). We followed up promising signals (P < 5 × 10-6) that remained associated in analyses comparing (1) asthma-COPD overlap vs asthma-only control subjects, and (2) asthma-COPD overlap vs COPD-only control subjects. These variants were analyzed in 12 independent cohorts (stage 2). RESULTS: We selected 31 independent variants for further investigation in stage 2, and discovered eight novel signals (P < 5 × 10-8) for asthma-COPD overlap (meta-analysis of stage 1 and 2 studies). These signals suggest a spectrum of shared genetic influences, some predominantly influencing asthma (FAM105A, GLB1, PHB, TSLP), others predominantly influencing fixed airflow obstruction (IL17RD, C5orf56, HLA-DQB1). One intergenic signal on chromosome 5 had not been previously associated with asthma, COPD, or lung function. Subgroup analyses suggested that associations at these eight signals were not driven by smoking or age at asthma diagnosis, and in phenome-wide scans, eosinophil counts, atopy, and asthma traits were prominent. INTERPRETATION: We identified eight signals for asthma-COPD overlap, which may represent loci that predispose to type 2 inflammation, and serious long-term consequences of asthma.

Period and cohort effects: consequences on spirometric lung function in Norway during the 20th century.

Background and aim: Several factors can influence measured lung function over time. The aim of this study was to investigate period and cohort effects on spirometric measures in a large general population sample in Norway during the 20th century, using Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI-2012) equations as a reference. Methods: 36 466 subjects (born 1894-1969) from four cross-sectional surveys conducted between 1965 and 1999 were included, with harmonised data on smoking habits, respiratory symptoms, lung diseases, education and spirometry. Changes in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) z-scores in healthy subjects across surveys were explored to investigate period effects. Linear mixed-effects models of FEV1 and FVC z-scores on birth cohort, with survey as random effect, were used to investigate cohort effects, both in subjects of the total population and in healthy ones. Results: Relatively higher FEV1 and FVC z-scores in healthy subjects were found in the first survey (1965-1970) compared to the more recent ones (1988-1999), suggesting period effects. FEV1 and FVC z-scores increased significantly with birth cohort from 1894 to 1935, after adjustment for covariates. A more stable trend of FEV1 and FVC z-scores with birth cohort was evidenced for subjects born more recently (1945-1969). Conclusions: An increase of lung function with year of birth was observed in Norwegian subjects during the first half of the 20th century. The impact of period effects on lung function decreased from 1965 to 1999.

Respiratory symptoms and respiratory deaths: A multi-cohort study with 45 years observation time.

This study determined the association between respiratory symptoms and death from respiratory causes over a period of 45 years. In four cohorts of random samples of Norwegian populations with 103,881 participants, 43,731 persons had died per 31 December 2016. In total, 5,949 (14%) had died from respiratory diseases; 2,442 (41%) from lung cancer, 1,717 (29%) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 1,348 (23%) pneumonia, 119 (2%) asthma, 147 (2%) interstitial lung disease and 176 (3%) other pulmonary diseases. Compared with persons without respiratory symptoms the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for lung cancer deaths increased with score of breathlessness on effort and cough and phlegm, being 2.6 (95% CI 2.1-3.2) for breathlessness score 3 and 2.1 (95% CI 1.7-2.5) for cough and phlegm score 5. The HR of COPD death was 6.4 (95% CI 5.4-7.7) for breathlessness score 3 and 3.0 (2.4-3.6) for cough and phlegm score 5. Attacks of breathlessness and wheeze score 2 had a HR of 1.6 (1.4-1.9) for COPD death. The risk of pneumonia deaths increased also with higher breathlessness on effort score, but not with higher cough and phlegm score, except for score 2 with HR 1.5 (1.2-1.8). In this study with >2.4 million person-years at risk, a positive association was observed between scores of respiratory symptoms and deaths due to COPD and lung cancer. Respiratory symptoms are thus important risk factors, which should be followed thoroughly by health care practitioners for the benefit of public health.

Chronic airflow obstruction and ambient particulate air pollution.

Smoking is the most well-established cause of chronic airflow obstruction (CAO) but particulate air pollution and poverty have also been implicated. We regressed sex-specific prevalence of CAO from 41 Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study sites against smoking prevalence from the same study, the gross national income per capita and the local annual mean level of ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) using negative binomial regression. The prevalence of CAO was not independently associated with PM2.5 but was strongly associated with smoking and was also associated with poverty. Strengthening tobacco control and improved understanding of the link between CAO and poverty should be prioritised.

Prevalence and Population-Attributable Risk for Chronic Airflow Obstruction in a Large Multinational Study.

Rationale: The Global Burden of Disease program identified smoking and ambient and household air pollution as the main drivers of death and disability from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objectives: To estimate the attributable risk of chronic airflow obstruction (CAO), a quantifiable characteristic of COPD, due to several risk factors. Methods: The Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study is a cross-sectional study of adults, aged ≥40, in a globally distributed sample of 41 urban and rural sites. Based on data from 28,459 participants, we estimated the prevalence of CAO, defined as a postbronchodilator FEV1-to-FVC ratio less than the lower limit of normal, and the relative risks associated with different risk factors. Local relative risks were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model borrowing information from across sites. From these relative risks and the prevalence of risk factors, we estimated local population attributable risks. Measurements and Main Results: The mean prevalence of CAO was 11.2% in men and 8.6% in women. The mean population attributable risk for smoking was 5.1% in men and 2.2% in women. The next most influential risk factors were poor education levels, working in a dusty job for ≥10 years, low body mass index, and a history of tuberculosis. The risk of CAO attributable to the different risk factors varied across sites. Conclusions: Although smoking remains the most important risk factor for CAO, in some areas, poor education, low body mass index, and passive smoking are of greater importance. Dusty occupations and tuberculosis are important risk factors at some sites.

Acute exacerbations of COPD and risk of lung cancer in COPD patients with and without a history of asthma.

RATIONALE: There is limited knowledge on the effect of acute exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) on lung cancer risk in COPD patients with and without a history of asthma. This study aims to examine whether AECOPD is associated with risk of lung cancer, and whether the effect depends on a history of asthma. METHODS: In the GenKOLS study of 2003-2005, 852 subjects with COPD performed spirometry, and filled out questionnaires on smoking habits, symptoms and disease history. These data were linked to lung cancer data from the Cancer Registry of Norway through 2013. AECOPD, measured at baseline was the main predictor. To quantify differences in lung cancer risk, we performed Cox-proportional hazards regression. We adjusted for sex, age, smoking variables, body mass index, and lung function. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: During follow-up, 8.8% of the subjects with, and 5.9% of the subjects without exacerbations were diagnosed with lung cancer. Cox regression showed a significant increased risk of lung cancer with one or more exacerbations in COPD patients without a history of asthma, HRR = 2.77 (95% CI 1.39-5.52). We found a significant interaction between a history of asthma and AECOPD on lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: AECOPD is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in COPD patients without a history of asthma.

Respiratory symptoms and mortality in four general population cohorts over 45 years.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the association between respiratory symptoms and mortality in four cohorts of the general population in Norway aged 15-75 years and in selected subgroups in the pooled sample. METHODS: The study comprised 158,702 persons, who were drawn randomly from the Norwegian population register. All subjects received a standardized, self-administered questionnaire on 11 respiratory symptoms between 1972 and 1998, with follow-up of death until December 31, 2017. Analyses were performed on 114,380 respondents. RESULTS: The hazard of death was closely associated with sex, age, and education. The hazard ratios (HR) for death and the 95% confidence intervals (CI) by risk factors were similar in the four cohorts. After adjustment for demographic and environmental, modifiable factors, the HR for death was 1.90 (95% CI 1.80-2.00) for breathlessness score 3, 1.28 (1.21-1.37) for cough/phlegm score 5 and 1.09 (1.05-1.14) for attack of breathlessness/wheeze score 2 compared to the referent (no symptom), respectively. The cough/phlegm score was associated with death in current smokers but not in never smokers or ex-smokers. Breathlessness score was associated with death in men and women. CONCLUSION: Among persons aged 45-75 years, respiratory symptoms were significant predictors of all cause mortality. Education and smoking habits influenced only the associations between coughing and mortality. The associations were independent of study sites.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and related phenotypes: polygenic risk scores in population-based and case-control cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors influence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk, but the individual variants that have been identified have small effects. We hypothesised that a polygenic risk score using additional variants would predict COPD and associated phenotypes. METHODS: We constructed a polygenic risk score using a genome-wide association study of lung function (FEV1 and FEV1/forced vital capacity [FVC]) from the UK Biobank and SpiroMeta. We tested this polygenic risk score in nine cohorts of multiple ethnicities for an association with moderate-to-severe COPD (defined as FEV1/FVC <0·7 and FEV1 <80% of predicted). Associations were tested using logistic regression models, adjusting for age, sex, height, smoking pack-years, and principal components of genetic ancestry. We assessed predictive performance of models by area under the curve. In a subset of studies, we also studied quantitative and qualitative CT imaging phenotypes that reflect parenchymal and airway pathology, and patterns of reduced lung growth. FINDINGS: The polygenic risk score was associated with COPD in European (odds ratio [OR] per SD 1·81 [95% CI 1·74-1·88] and non-European (1·42 [1·34-1·51]) populations. Compared with the first decile, the tenth decile of the polygenic risk score was associated with COPD, with an OR of 7·99 (6·56-9·72) in European ancestry and 4·83 (3·45-6·77) in non-European ancestry cohorts. The polygenic risk score was superior to previously described genetic risk scores and, when combined with clinical risk factors (ie, age, sex, and smoking pack-years), showed improved prediction for COPD compared with a model comprising clinical risk factors alone (AUC 0·80 [0·79-0·81] vs 0·76 [0·75-0·76]). The polygenic risk score was associated with CT imaging phenotypes, including wall area percent, quantitative and qualitative measures of emphysema, local histogram emphysema patterns, and destructive emphysema subtypes. The polygenic risk score was associated with a reduced lung growth pattern. INTERPRETATION: A risk score comprised of genetic variants can identify a small subset of individuals at markedly increased risk for moderate-to-severe COPD, emphysema subtypes associated with cigarette smoking, and patterns of reduced lung growth. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Wellcome Trust.

Prevalence and prognostic ability of the GOLD 2017 classification compared to the GOLD 2011 classification in a Norwegian COPD cohort.

Rationale: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017 is based on an ABCD assessment tool of symptoms and exacerbation history and grade 1-4 of airflow limitation severity, facilitating classification either into 4 groups (ABCD) or 16 groups (1A-4D). We aimed to compare the GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 ABCD, and GOLD 2017 1A-4D classifications in terms of their distribution and prediction of mortality and hospitalizations. Methods: In the GenKOLS study, 912 COPD patients with FEV1 less than 80% of the predicted answered questionnaires and performed lung function testing in 2003-2005. The patients were recruited from a hospital patient registry (n=662) and from the general population (n=250), followed up until 2011 with respect to all-cause and respiratory mortality, and all-cause and respiratory hospitalizations. We performed logistic regression and receiver operating curve (ROC) analyses for the different classifications with estimations of area under the curve (AUC) for comparisons. Results: Mean age at baseline was 60 years (SD 11), 55% were male. Mean duration of follow-up was 91 months. By GOLD 2011, 21% were classified as group A, 29% group B, 6% group C, and 43% as group D, corresponding percentages for GOLD 2017 were: 25%, 52%, 3%, and 20%. The GOLD 2011 classification had higher AUC values than the GOLD 2017 group ABCD classification for respiratory mortality and hospitalization, but after inclusion of airflow limitation severity in GOLD 2017 groups 2A-4D, AUC values were significantly higher with GOLD 2017. Conclusion: In a clinically relevant sample of COPD patients, the GOLD 2017 classification doubles the prevalence of group B and halves the prevalence of groups C and D as compared to the GOLD 2011 classification. The prediction of respiratory mortality and respiratory hospitalization was better for GOLD 2017 2A-4D taking airflow limitation severity into account, as compared to GOLD 2017 ABCD and GOLD 2011.

Author Correction: New genetic signals for lung function highlight pathways and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associations across multiple ancestries.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.