Application of simultaneous uncertainty quantification and segmentation for oropharyngeal cancer use-case with Bayesian deep learning.

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy is a core treatment modality for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), where the primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) is manually segmented with high interobserver variability. This calls for reliable and trustworthy automated tools in clinician workflow. Therefore, accurate uncertainty quantification and its downstream utilization is critical. METHODS: Here we propose uncertainty-aware deep learning for OPC GTVp segmentation, and illustrate the utility of uncertainty in multiple applications. We examine two Bayesian deep learning (BDL) models and eight uncertainty measures, and utilize a large multi-institute dataset of 292 PET/CT scans to systematically analyze our approach. RESULTS: We show that our uncertainty-based approach accurately predicts the quality of the deep learning segmentation in 86.6% of cases, identifies low performance cases for semi-automated correction, and visualizes regions of the scans where the segmentations likely fail. CONCLUSIONS: Our BDL-based analysis provides a first-step towards more widespread implementation of uncertainty quantification in OPC GTVp segmentation.

Radiotherapy is used as a treatment for people with oropharyngeal cancer. It is important to distinguish the areas where cancer is present so the radiotherapy treatment can be targeted at the cancer. Computational methods based on artificial intelligence can automate this task but need to be able to distinguish areas where it is unclear whether cancer is present. In this study we compare these computational methods that are able to highlight areas where it is unclear whether or not cancer is present. Our approach accurately predicts how well these areas are distinguished by the models. Our results could be applied to improve the computational methods used during radiotherapy treatment. This could enable more targeted treatment to be used in the future, which could result in better outcomes for people with oropharyngeal cancer.

Associations Between Radiation Oncologist Demographic Factors and Segmentation Similarity Benchmarks: Insights From a Crowd-Sourced Challenge Using Bayesian Estimation.

PURPOSE: The quality of radiotherapy auto-segmentation training data, primarily derived from clinician observers, is of utmost importance. However, the factors influencing the quality of clinician-derived segmentations are poorly understood; our study aims to quantify these factors. METHODS: Organ at risk (OAR) and tumor-related segmentations provided by radiation oncologists from the Contouring Collaborative for Consensus in Radiation Oncology data set were used. Segmentations were derived from five disease sites: breast, sarcoma, head and neck (H&N), gynecologic (GYN), and GI. Segmentation quality was determined on a structure-by-structure basis by comparing the observer segmentations with an expert-derived consensus, which served as a reference standard benchmark. The Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) was primarily used as a metric for the comparisons. DSC was stratified into binary groups on the basis of structure-specific expert-derived interobserver variability (IOV) cutoffs. Generalized linear mixed-effects models using Bayesian estimation were used to investigate the association between demographic variables and the binarized DSC for each disease site. Variables with a highest density interval excluding zero were considered to substantially affect the outcome measure. RESULTS: Five hundred seventy-four, 110, 452, 112, and 48 segmentations were used for the breast, sarcoma, H&N, GYN, and GI cases, respectively. The median percentage of segmentations that crossed the expert DSC IOV cutoff when stratified by structure type was 55% and 31% for OARs and tumors, respectively. Regression analysis revealed that the structure being tumor-related had a substantial negative impact on binarized DSC for the breast, sarcoma, H&N, and GI cases. There were no recurring relationships between segmentation quality and demographic variables across the cases, with most variables demonstrating large standard deviations. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights substantial uncertainty surrounding conventionally presumed factors influencing segmentation quality relative to benchmarks.

Combination Chemotherapy Optimization with Discrete Dosing.

Chemotherapy drug administration is a complex problem that often requires expensive clinical trials to evaluate potential regimens; one way to alleviate this burden and better inform future trials is to build reliable models for drug administration. This paper presents a mixed-integer program for combination chemotherapy (utilization of multiple drugs) optimization that incorporates various important operational constraints and, besides dose and concentration limits, controls treatment toxicity based on its effect on the count of white blood cells. To address the uncertainty of tumor heterogeneity, we also propose chance constraints that guarantee reaching an operable tumor size with a high probability in a neoadjuvant setting. We present analytical results pertinent to the accuracy of the model in representing biological processes of chemotherapy and establish its potential for clinical applications through a numerical study of breast cancer.

Safety and Tolerability of Online Adaptive High-Field Magnetic Resonance-Guided Radiotherapy.

Importance: In 2018, the first online adaptive magnetic resonance (MR)-guided radiotherapy (MRgRT) system using a 1.5-T MR-equipped linear accelerator (1.5-T MR-Linac) was clinically introduced. This system enables online adaptive radiotherapy, in which the radiation plan is adapted to size and shape changes of targets at each treatment session based on daily MR-visualized anatomy. Objective: To evaluate safety, tolerability, and technical feasibility of treatment with a 1.5-T MR-Linac, specifically focusing on the subset of patients treated with an online adaptive strategy (ie, the adapt-to-shape [ATS] approach). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adults with solid tumors treated with a 1.5-T MR-Linac enrolled in Multi Outcome Evaluation for Radiation Therapy Using the MR-Linac (MOMENTUM), a large prospective international study of MRgRT between February 2019 and October 2021. Included were adults with solid tumors treated with a 1.5-T MR-Linac. Data were collected in Canada, Denmark, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, and the US. Data were analyzed in August 2023. Exposure: All patients underwent MRgRT using a 1.5-T MR-Linac. Radiation prescriptions were consistent with institutional standards of care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Patterns of care, tolerability, and technical feasibility (ie, treatment completed as planned). Acute high-grade radiotherapy-related toxic effects (ie, grade 3 or higher toxic effects according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0) occurring within the first 3 months after treatment delivery. Results: In total, 1793 treatment courses (1772 patients) were included (median patient age, 69 years [range, 22-91 years]; 1384 male [77.2%]). Among 41 different treatment sites, common sites were prostate (745 [41.6%]), metastatic lymph nodes (233 [13.0%]), and brain (189 [10.5%]). ATS was used in 1050 courses (58.6%). MRgRT was completed as planned in 1720 treatment courses (95.9%). Patient withdrawal caused 5 patients (0.3%) to discontinue treatment. The incidence of radiotherapy-related grade 3 toxic effects was 1.4% (95% CI, 0.9%-2.0%) in the entire cohort and 0.4% (95% CI, 0.1%-1.0%) in the subset of patients treated with ATS. There were no radiotherapy-related grade 4 or 5 toxic effects. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients treated on a 1.5-T MR-Linac, radiotherapy was safe and well tolerated. Online adaptation of the radiation plan at each treatment session to account for anatomic variations was associated with a low risk of acute grade 3 toxic effects.

Dataset of weekly intra-treatment diffusion weighted imaging in head and neck cancer patients treated with MR-Linac.

Radiation therapy (RT) is a crucial treatment for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC); however, it can have adverse effects on patients' long-term function and quality of life. Biomarkers that can predict tumor response to RT are being explored to personalize treatment and improve outcomes. While tissue and blood biomarkers have limitations, imaging biomarkers derived from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) offer detailed information. The integration of MRI and a linear accelerator in the MR-Linac system allows for MR-guided radiation therapy (MRgRT), offering precise visualization and treatment delivery. This data descriptor offers a valuable repository for weekly intra-treatment diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) data obtained from head and neck cancer patients. By analyzing the sequential DWI changes and their correlation with treatment response, as well as oncological and survival outcomes, the study provides valuable insights into the clinical implications of DWI in HNSCC.

Detection of Alteration in Carotid Artery Volumetry Using Standard-of-care Computed Tomography Surveillance Scans Following Unilateral Radiation Therapy for Early-stage Tonsillar Squamous Cell Carcinoma Survivors: A Cross-Sectional Internally-Matched Carotid Isodose Analysis.

Purpose: Radiation induced carotid artery disease (RICAD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among survivors of oropharyngeal cancer. This study leveraged standard-of-care CT scans to detect volumetric changes in the carotid arteries of patients receiving unilateral radiotherapy (RT) for early tonsillar cancer, and to determine dose-response relationship between RT and carotid volume changes, which could serve as an early imaging marker of RICAD. Methods and Materials: Disease-free cancer survivors (>3 months since therapy and age >18 years) treated with intensity modulated RT for early (T1-2, N0-2b) tonsillar cancer with pre- and post-therapy contrast-enhanced CT scans available were included. Patients treated with definitive surgery, bilateral RT, or additional RT before the post-RT CT scan were excluded. Pre- and post-treatment CTs were registered to the planning CT and dose grid. Isodose lines from treatment plans were projected onto both scans, facilitating the delineation of carotid artery subvolumes in 5 Gy increments (i.e. received 50-55 Gy, 55-60 Gy, etc.). The percent-change in sub-volumes across each dose range was statistically examined using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: Among 46 patients analyzed, 72% received RT alone, 24% induction chemotherapy followed by RT, and 4% concurrent chemoradiation. The median interval from RT completion to the latest, post-RT CT scan was 43 months (IQR 32-57). A decrease in the volume of the irradiated carotid artery was observed in 78% of patients, while there was a statistically significant difference in mean %-change (±SD) between the total irradiated and spared carotid volumes (7.0±9.0 vs. +3.5±7.2, respectively, p<.0001). However, no significant dose-response trend was observed in the carotid artery volume change withing 5 Gy ranges (mean %-changes (±SD) for the 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, and 65-70+ Gy ranges [irradiated minus spared]: -13.1±14.7, -9.8±14.9, -6.9±16.2, -11.7±11.1, respectively). Notably, two patients (4%) had a cerebrovascular accident (CVA), both occurring in patients with a greater decrease in carotid artery volume in the irradiated vs the spared side. Conclusions: Our data show that standard-of-care oncologic surveillance CT scans can effectively detect reductions in carotid volume following RT for oropharyngeal cancer. Changes were equivalent between studied dose ranges, denoting no further dose-response effect beyond 50 Gy. The clinical utility of carotid volume changes for risk stratification and CVA prediction warrants further evaluation.

Development and Standardization of an Osteoradionecrosis Classification System in Head and Neck Cancer: Implementation of a Risk-Based Model.

PURPOSE: Osteoradionecrosis of the jaw (ORN) can manifest in varying severity. The aim of this study is to identify ORN risk factors and develop a novel classification to depict the severity of ORN. METHODS: Consecutive patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) treated with curative-intent intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) (≥45 Gy) from 2011 to 2017 were included. Occurrence of ORN was identified from in-house prospective dental and clinical databases and charts. Multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors and stratify patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. A novel ORN classification system was developed to depict ORN severity by modifying existing systems and incorporating expert opinion. The performance of the novel system was compared with 15 existing systems for their ability to identify and predict serious ORN event (jaw fracture or requiring jaw resection). RESULTS: ORN was identified in 219 of 2,732 (8%) consecutive patients with HNC. Factors associated with high risk of ORN were oral cavity or oropharyngeal primaries, received IMRT dose ≥60 Gy, current/ex-smokers, and/or stage III to IV periodontal condition. The ORN rate for high-risk versus low-risk patients was 12.7% versus 3.1% (P < .001) with an AUC of 0.71. Existing ORN systems overclassified serious ORN events and failed to recognize maxillary ORN. A novel ORN classification system, ClinRad, was proposed on the basis of vertical extent of bone necrosis and presence/absence of exposed bone/fistula. This system detected serious ORN events in 5.7% of patients and statistically outperformed existing systems. CONCLUSION: We identified risk factors for ORN and proposed a novel ORN classification system on the basis of vertical extent of bone necrosis and presence/absence of exposed bone/fistula. It outperformed existing systems in depicting the seriousness of ORN and may facilitate clinical care and clinical trials.

Artificial Intelligence Uncertainty Quantification in Radiotherapy Applications - A Scoping Review.

Background/purpose: The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in radiotherapy (RT) is expanding rapidly. However, there exists a notable lack of clinician trust in AI models, underscoring the need for effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. The purpose of this study was to scope existing literature related to UQ in RT, identify areas of improvement, and determine future directions. Methods: We followed the PRISMA-ScR scoping review reporting guidelines. We utilized the population (human cancer patients), concept (utilization of AI UQ), context (radiotherapy applications) framework to structure our search and screening process. We conducted a systematic search spanning seven databases, supplemented by manual curation, up to January 2024. Our search yielded a total of 8980 articles for initial review. Manuscript screening and data extraction was performed in Covidence. Data extraction categories included general study characteristics, RT characteristics, AI characteristics, and UQ characteristics. Results: We identified 56 articles published from 2015-2024. 10 domains of RT applications were represented; most studies evaluated auto-contouring (50%), followed by image-synthesis (13%), and multiple applications simultaneously (11%). 12 disease sites were represented, with head and neck cancer being the most common disease site independent of application space (32%). Imaging data was used in 91% of studies, while only 13% incorporated RT dose information. Most studies focused on failure detection as the main application of UQ (60%), with Monte Carlo dropout being the most commonly implemented UQ method (32%) followed by ensembling (16%). 55% of studies did not share code or datasets. Conclusion: Our review revealed a lack of diversity in UQ for RT applications beyond auto-contouring. Moreover, there was a clear need to study additional UQ methods, such as conformal prediction. Our results may incentivize the development of guidelines for reporting and implementation of UQ in RT.

Markov models for clinical decision-making in radiation oncology: A systematic review.

The intrinsic stochasticity of patients' response to treatment is a major consideration for clinical decision-making in radiation therapy. Markov models are powerful tools to capture this stochasticity and render effective treatment decisions. This paper provides an overview of the Markov models for clinical decision analysis in radiation oncology. A comprehensive literature search was conducted within MEDLINE using PubMed, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Only studies published from 2000 to 2023 were considered. Selected publications were summarized in two categories: (i) studies that compare two (or more) fixed treatment policies using Monte Carlo simulation and (ii) studies that seek an optimal treatment policy through Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Relevant to the scope of this study, 61 publications were selected for detailed review. The majority of these publications (n = 56) focused on comparative analysis of two or more fixed treatment policies using Monte Carlo simulation. Classifications based on cancer site, utility measures and the type of sensitivity analysis are presented. Five publications considered MDPs with the aim of computing an optimal treatment policy; a detailed statement of the analysis and results is provided for each work. As an extension of Markov model-based simulation analysis, MDP offers a flexible framework to identify an optimal treatment policy among a possibly large set of treatment policies. However, the applications of MDPs to oncological decision-making have been understudied, and the full capacity of this framework to render complex optimal treatment decisions warrants further consideration.

First-in-Human Hyperpolarized MRI for Tumor Metabolism in HNSCC.

This case report describes the use of hyperpolarized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a patient with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) to demonstrate its translational viability.

Clinical and prognostic differences in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma in USA and Denmark, two HPV high-prevalence areas.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty persists regarding clinical and treatment variations crucial to consider when comparing high human papillomavirus (HPV)-prevalence oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) cohorts for accurate patient stratification and replicability of clinical trials across different geographical areas. METHODS: OPSCC patients were included from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC), USA and from The University Hospital of Copenhagen, Denmark from 2015-2020, (n = 2484). Outcomes were 3-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free interval (RFI). Subgroup analyses were made for low-risk OPSCC patients (T1-2N0M0) and high-risk patients (UICC8 III-IV). RESULTS: There were significantly more HPV-positive (88.2 % vs. 63.1 %), males (89.4 % vs. 74.1 %), never-smokers (52.1 % vs. 23.7 %), lower UICC8-stage (I/II: 79.3 % vs. 68 %), and fewer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone (14.8 % vs. 30.3 %) in the UTMDACC cohort. No difference in the adjusted OS was observed (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, p = 0.23), but a significantly increased RFI HR was observed for the Copenhagen cohort (HR: 1.74, p = 0.003). Subgroup analyses of low- and high-risk patients revealed significant clinical and treatment differences. No difference in prognosis was observed for low-risk patients, but the prognosis for high-risk patients in the Copenhagen cohort was worse (OS HR 2.20, p = 0.004, RFI HR 2.80, p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: We identified significant differences in clinical characteristics, treatment modalities, and prognosis between a Northern European and Northern American OPSCC population. These differences are important to consider when comparing outcomes and for patient stratification in clinical trials, as reproducibility might be challenging.

MR-guided stereotactic radiation therapy for head and neck cancers.

Purpose: MR-guided radiotherapy (MRgRT) has the advantage of utilizing high soft tissue contrast imaging to track daily changes in target and critical organs throughout the entire radiation treatment course. Head and neck (HN) stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) has been increasingly used to treat localized lesions within a shorter timeframe. The purpose of this study is to examine the dosimetric difference between the step-and-shot intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans on Elekta Unity and our clinical volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans on Varian TrueBeam for HN SBRT. Method: Fourteen patients treated on TrueBeam sTx with VMAT treatment plans were re-planned in the Monaco treatment planning system for Elekta Unity MR-Linac (MRL). The plan qualities, including target coverage, conformity, homogeneity, nearby critical organ doses, gradient index and low dose bath volume, were compared between VMAT and Monaco IMRT plans. Additionally, we evaluated the Unity adaptive plans of adapt-to-position (ATP) and adapt-to-shape (ATS) workflows using simulated setup errors for five patients and assessed the outcomes of our treated patients. Results: Monaco IMRT plans achieved comparable results to VMAT plans in terms of target coverage, uniformity and homogeneity, with slightly higher target maximum and mean doses. The critical organ doses in Monaco IMRT plans all met clinical goals; however, the mean doses and low dose bath volumes were higher than in VMAT plans. The adaptive plans demonstrated that the ATP workflow may result in degraded target coverage and OAR doses for HN SBRT, while the ATS workflow can maintain the plan quality. Conclusion: The use of Monaco treatment planning and online adaptation can achieve dosimetric results comparable to VMAT plans, with the additional benefits of real-time tracking of target volume and nearby critical structures. This offers the potential to treat aggressive and variable tumors in HN SBRT and improve local control and treatment toxicity.

Cluster-Based Toxicity Estimation of Osteoradionecrosis Via Unsupervised Machine Learning: Moving Beyond Single Dose-Parameter Normal Tissue Complication Probability by Using Whole Dose-Volume Histograms for Cohort Risk Stratification.

PURPOSE: Given the limitations of extant models for normal tissue complication probability estimation for osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the mandible, the purpose of this study was to enrich statistical inference by exploiting structural properties of data and provide a clinically reliable model for ORN risk evaluation through an unsupervised-learning analysis that incorporates the whole radiation dose distribution on the mandible. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The analysis was conducted on retrospective data of 1259 patients with head and neck cancer treated at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2005 and 2015. During a minimum 12-month posttherapy follow-up period, 173 patients in this cohort (13.7%) developed ORN (grades I to IV). The (structural) clusters of mandibular dose-volume histograms (DVHs) for these patients were identified using the K-means clustering method. A soft-margin support vector machine was used to determine the cluster borders and partition the dose-volume space. The risk of ORN for each dose-volume region was calculated based on incidence rates and other clinical risk factors. RESULTS: The K-means clustering method identified 6 clusters among the DVHs. Based on the first 5 clusters, the dose-volume space was partitioned by the soft-margin support vector machine into distinct regions with different risk indices. The sixth cluster entirely overlapped with the others; the region of this cluster was determined by its envelopes. For each region, the ORN incidence rate per preradiation dental extraction status (a statistically significant, nondose related risk factor for ORN) was reported as the corresponding risk index. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents an unsupervised-learning analysis of a large-scale data set to evaluate the risk of mandibular ORN among patients with head and neck cancer. The results provide a visual risk-assessment tool for ORN (based on the whole DVH and preradiation dental extraction status) as well as a range of constraints for dose optimization under different risk levels.

Dyadic Yoga for Head and Neck Cancer Patients Undergoing Chemoradiation and their Family Caregivers.

OBJECTIVES: Concurrent chemoradiation to treat head and neck cancer (HNC) may result in debilitating toxicities. Targeted exercise such as yoga therapy may buffer against treatment-related sequelae; thus, this pilot RCT examined the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a yoga intervention. Because family caregivers report low caregiving efficacy and elevated levels of distress, we included them in this trial as active study participants. METHODS: HNC patients and their caregivers were randomized to a 15-session dyadic yoga program or a waitlist control (WLC) group. Prior to randomization, patients completed standard symptom (MDASI-HN) and patients and caregivers completed quality of life (SF-36) assessments. The 15-session program was delivered parallel to patients' treatment schedules. Participants were re-assessed at patients' last day of chemoradiation and again 30 days later. Patients' emergency department visits, unplanned hospital admissions and gastric feeding tube placements were recorded over the treatment course and up to 30 days later. RESULTS: With a consent rate of 76%, 37 dyads were randomized. Participants in the yoga group completed a mean of 12.5 sessions and rated the program as "beneficial." Patients in the yoga group had clinically significantly less symptom interference and HNC symptom severity and better QOL than those in the WLC group. They were also less likely to have a hospital admission (OR = 3.00), emergency department visit (OR = 2.14), and/or a feeding tube placement (OR = 1.78). CONCLUSION: Yoga therapy appears to be a feasible, acceptable, and possibly efficacious behavioral supportive care strategy for HNC patients undergoing chemoradiation. A larger efficacy trial is warranted.

Prognostic value of tumor volume doubling time in lung-metastatic adenoid cystic carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: Lung metastases in adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) usually have indolent growth and the optimal timing to start systemic therapy is not established. We assessed ACC lung metastasis tumor growth dynamics and compared the prognostic value of time to progression (TTP) and tumor volume doubling time (TVDT). METHODS: The study included ACC patients with ≥1 pulmonary metastasis (≥5 mm) and at least 2 chest computed tomography scans. Radiology assessment was performed from the first scan showing metastasis until treatment initiation or death. Up to 5 lung nodules per patient were segmented for TVDT calculation. To assess tumor growth rate (TGR), the correlation coefficient (r) and coefficient of determination (R2) were calculated for measured lung nodules. TTP was assessed per RECIST 1.1; TVDT was calculated using the Schwartz formula. Overall survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: The study included 75 patients. Sixty-seven patients (89%) had lung-only metastasis on first CT scan. The TGR was overall constant (median R2 = 0.974). Median TTP and TVDT were 11.2 months and 7.5 months. Shorter TVDT (<6 months) was associated with poor overall survival (HR = 0.48; p = 0.037), but TTP was not associated with survival (HR = 1.02; p = 0.96). Cox regression showed that TVDT but not TTP significantly correlated with OS. TVDT calculated using estimated tumor volume correlated with TVDT obtained by segmentation. CONCLUSION: Most ACC lung metastases have a constant TGR. TVDT may be a better prognostic indicator than TTP in lung-metastatic ACC. TVDT can be estimated by single longitudinal measurement in clinical practice.

Longitudinal changes in the carotid arteries of head and neck cancer patients following radiation therapy: Results from a prospective serial imaging biomarker characterization study.

INTRODUCTION: We prospectively evaluated morphologic and functional changes in the carotid arteries of patients treated with unilateral neck radiation therapy (RT) for head and neck cancer. METHODS: Bilateral carotid artery duplex studies were performed at 0, 3, 6, 12, 18 months and 2, 3, 4, and 5 years following RT. Intima media thickness (IMT); global and regional circumferential, as well as radial strain, arterial elasticity, stiffness, and distensibility were calculated. RESULTS: Thirty-eight patients were included. A significant difference in the IMT from baseline between irradiated and unirradiated carotid arteries was detected at 18 months (median, 0.073 mm vs -0.003 mm; P = 0.014), which increased at 3 and 4 years (0.128 mm vs 0.013 mm, P = 0.016, and 0.177 mm vs 0.023 mm, P = 0.0002, respectively). A significant transient change was noted in global circumferential strain between the irradiated and unirradiated arteries at 6 months (median difference, -0.89, P = 0.023), which did not persist. No significant differences were detected in the other measures of elasticity, stiffness, and distensibility. CONCLUSIONS: Functional and morphologic changes of the carotid arteries detected by carotid ultrasound, such as changes in global circumferential strain at 6 months and carotid IMT at 18 months, may be useful for the early detection of radiation-induced carotid artery injury, can guide future research aiming to mitigate carotid artery stenosis, and should be considered for clinical surveillance survivorship recommendations after head and neck RT.

Comparison of Machine Leaning Models for Prediction of Acute Pain Severity and On-Treatment Opioid Utilization in Oral Cavity and Oropharyngeal Cancer Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy: Exploratory Analysis from a Large-Scale Retrospective Cohort.

Background: Acute pain is a common and debilitating symptom experienced by oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer (OC/OPC) patients undergoing radiation therapy (RT). Uncontrolled pain can result in opioid overuse and increased risks of long-term opioid dependence. The specific aim of this exploratory analysis was the prediction of severe acute pain and opioid use in the acute on-treatment setting, to develop risk-stratification models for pragmatic clinical trials. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 900 OC/OPC patients treated with RT during 2017 to 2023. Clinical data including demographics, tumor data, pain scores and medication data were extracted from patient records. On-treatment pain intensity scores were assessed using a numeric rating scale (0-none, 10-worst) and total opioid doses were calculated using morphine equivalent daily dose (MEDD) conversion factors. Analgesics efficacy was assessed based on the combined pain intensity and the total required MEDD. ML models, including Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) were developed and validated using ten-fold cross-validation. Performance of models were evaluated using discrimination and calibration metrics. Feature importance was investigated using bootstrap and permutation techniques. Results: For predicting acute pain intensity, the GBM demonstrated superior area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) (0.71), recall (0.39), and F1 score (0.48). For predicting the total MEDD, LR outperformed other models in the AUC (0.67). For predicting the analgesics efficacy, SVM achieved the highest specificity (0.97), and best calibration (ECE of 0.06), while RF and GBM achieved the same highest AUC, 0.68. RF model emerged as the best calibrated model with ECE of 0.02 for pain intensity prediction and 0.05 for MEDD prediction. Baseline pain scores and vital signs demonstrated the most contributed features for the different predictive models. Conclusion: These ML models are promising in predicting end-of-treatment acute pain and opioid requirements and analgesics efficacy in OC/OPC patients undergoing RT. Baseline pain score, vital sign changes were identified as crucial predictors. Implementation of these models in clinical practice could facilitate early risk stratification and personalized pain management. Prospective multicentric studies and external validation are essential for further refinement and generalizability.