Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

BridgePRS leverages shared genetic effects across ancestries to increase polygenic risk score portability.

Here we present BridgePRS, a novel Bayesian polygenic risk score (PRS) method that leverages shared genetic effects across ancestries to increase PRS portability. We evaluate BridgePRS via simulations and real UK Biobank data across 19 traits in individuals of African, South Asian and East Asian ancestry, using both UK Biobank and Biobank Japan genome-wide association study summary statistics; out-of-cohort validation is performed in the Mount Sinai (New York) BioMe biobank. BridgePRS is compared with the leading alternative, PRS-CSx, and two other PRS methods. Simulations suggest that the performance of BridgePRS relative to PRS-CSx increases as uncertainty increases: with lower trait heritability, higher polygenicity and greater between-population genetic diversity; and when causal variants are not present in the data. In real data, BridgePRS has a 61% larger average R2 than PRS-CSx in out-of-cohort prediction of African ancestry samples in BioMe (P = 6 × 10-5). BridgePRS is a computationally efficient, user-friendly and powerful approach for PRS analyses in non-European ancestries.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

BridgePRS : A powerful trans-ancestry Polygenic Risk Score method.

Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) have huge potential to contribute to biomedical research and to a future of precision medicine, but to date their calculation relies largely on Europeanancestry GWAS data. This global bias makes most PRS substantially less accurate in individuals of non-European ancestry. Here we present BridgePRS , a novel Bayesian PRS method that leverages shared genetic effects across ancestries to increase the accuracy of PRS in non-European populations. The performance of BridgePRS is evaluated in simulated data and real UK Biobank (UKB) data across 19 traits in African, South Asian and East Asian ancestry individuals, using both UKB and Biobank Japan GWAS summary statistics. BridgePRS is compared to the leading alternative, PRS-CSx , and two single-ancestry PRS methods adapted for trans-ancestry prediction. PRS trained in the UK Biobank are then validated out-of-cohort in the independent Mount Sinai (New York) Bio Me Biobank. Simulations reveal that BridgePRS performance, relative to PRS-CSx , increases as uncertainty increases: with lower heritability, higher polygenicity, greater between-population genetic diversity, and when causal variants are not present in the data. Our simulation results are consistent with real data analyses in which BridgePRS has better predictive accuracy in African ancestry samples, especially in out-of-cohort prediction (into Bio Me ), which shows a 60% boost in mean R 2 compared to PRS-CSx ( P = 2 × 10 -6 ). BridgePRS performs the full PRS analysis pipeline, is computationally efficient, and is a powerful method for deriving PRS in diverse and under-represented ancestry populations.

Immunoglobulin, glucocorticoid, or combination therapy for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a propensity-weighted cohort study.

Background: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a hyperinflammatory condition associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, has emerged as a serious illness in children worldwide. Immunoglobulin or glucocorticoids, or both, are currently recommended treatments. Methods: The Best Available Treatment Study evaluated immunomodulatory treatments for MIS-C in an international observational cohort. Analysis of the first 614 patients was previously reported. In this propensity-weighted cohort study, clinical and outcome data from children with suspected or proven MIS-C were collected onto a web-based Research Electronic Data Capture database. After excluding neonates and incomplete or duplicate records, inverse probability weighting was used to compare primary treatments with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, using intravenous immunoglobulin as the reference treatment. Primary outcomes were a composite of inotropic or ventilator support from the second day after treatment initiation, or death, and time to improvement on an ordinal clinical severity scale. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation, clinical deterioration, fever, and coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN69546370. Findings: We enrolled 2101 children (aged 0 months to 19 years) with clinically diagnosed MIS-C from 39 countries between June 14, 2020, and April 25, 2022, and, following exclusions, 2009 patients were included for analysis (median age 8·0 years [IQR 4·2-11·4], 1191 [59·3%] male and 818 [40·7%] female, and 825 [41·1%] White). 680 (33·8%) patients received primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin, 698 (34·7%) with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, 487 (24·2%) with glucocorticoids alone; 59 (2·9%) patients received other combinations, including biologicals, and 85 (4·2%) patients received no immunomodulators. There were no significant differences between treatments for primary outcomes for the 1586 patients with complete baseline and outcome data that were considered for primary analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for ventilation, inotropic support, or death were 1·09 (95% CI 0·75-1·58; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids and 0·93 (0·58-1·47; corrected p value=1·00) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Adjusted average hazard ratios for time to improvement were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·20; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, and 0·84 (0·70-1·00; corrected p value=0·22) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Treatment escalation was less frequent for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids (OR 0·15 [95% CI 0·11-0·20]; p<0·0001) and glucocorticoids alone (0·68 [0·50-0·93]; p=0·014) versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Persistent fever (from day 2 onward) was less common with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids compared with either intravenous immunoglobulin alone (OR 0·50 [95% CI 0·38-0·67]; p<0·0001) or glucocorticoids alone (0·63 [0·45-0·88]; p=0·0058). Coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution did not differ significantly between treatment groups. Interpretation: Recovery rates, including occurrence and resolution of coronary artery aneurysms, were similar for primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin when compared to glucocorticoids or intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids. Initial treatment with glucocorticoids appears to be a safe alternative to immunoglobulin or combined therapy, and might be advantageous in view of the cost and limited availability of intravenous immunoglobulin in many countries. Funding: Imperial College London, the European Union's Horizon 2020, Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Foundation, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and National Institutes of Health.

PRSet: Pathway-based polygenic risk score analyses and software.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been among the leading advances in biomedicine in recent years. As a proxy of genetic liability, PRSs are utilised across multiple fields and applications. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been developed to optimise their predictive accuracy, these typically distil genetic liability to a single number based on aggregation of an individual's genome-wide risk alleles. This results in a key loss of information about an individual's genetic profile, which could be critical given the functional sub-structure of the genome and the heterogeneity of complex disease. In this manuscript, we introduce a 'pathway polygenic' paradigm of disease risk, in which multiple genetic liabilities underlie complex diseases, rather than a single genome-wide liability. We describe a method and accompanying software, PRSet, for computing and analysing pathway-based PRSs, in which polygenic scores are calculated across genomic pathways for each individual. We evaluate the potential of pathway PRSs in two distinct ways, creating two major sections: (1) In the first section, we benchmark PRSet as a pathway enrichment tool, evaluating its capacity to capture GWAS signal in pathways. We find that for target sample sizes of >10,000 individuals, pathway PRSs have similar power for evaluating pathway enrichment as leading methods MAGMA and LD score regression, with the distinct advantage of providing individual-level estimates of genetic liability for each pathway -opening up a range of pathway-based PRS applications, (2) In the second section, we evaluate the performance of pathway PRSs for disease stratification. We show that using a supervised disease stratification approach, pathway PRSs (computed by PRSet) outperform two standard genome-wide PRSs (computed by C+T and lassosum) for classifying disease subtypes in 20 of 21 scenarios tested. As the definition and functional annotation of pathways becomes increasingly refined, we expect pathway PRSs to offer key insights into the heterogeneity of complex disease and treatment response, to generate biologically tractable therapeutic targets from polygenic signal, and, ultimately, to provide a powerful path to precision medicine.

Bridging a diagnostic Kawasaki disease classifier from a microarray platform to a qRT-PCR assay.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis that mainly affects children under 5 years of age. Up to 30% of patients develop coronary artery abnormalities, which are reduced with early treatment. Timely diagnosis of KD is challenging but may become more straightforward with the recent discovery of a whole-blood host response classifier that discriminates KD patients from patients with other febrile conditions. Here, we bridged this microarray-based classifier to a clinically applicable quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay: the Kawasaki Disease Gene Expression Profiling (KiDs-GEP) classifier. METHODS: We designed and optimized a qRT-PCR assay and applied it to a subset of samples previously used for the classifier discovery to reweight the original classifier. RESULTS: The performance of the KiDs-GEP classifier was comparable to the original classifier with a cross-validated area under the ROC curve of 0.964 [95% CI: 0.924-1.00] vs 0.992 [95% CI: 0.978-1.00], respectively. Both classifiers demonstrated similar trends over various disease conditions, with the clearest distinction between individuals diagnosed with KD vs viral infections. CONCLUSION: We successfully bridged the microarray-based classifier into the KiDs-GEP classifier, a more rapid and more cost-efficient qRT-PCR assay, bringing a diagnostic test for KD closer to the hospital clinical laboratory. IMPACT: A diagnostic test is needed for Kawasaki disease and is currently not available. We describe the development of a One-Step multiplex qRT-PCR assay and the subsequent modification (i.e., bridging) of the microarray-based host response classifier previously described by Wright et al. The bridged KiDs-GEP classifier performs well in discriminating Kawasaki disease patients from febrile controls. This host response clinical test for Kawasaki disease can be adapted to the hospital clinical laboratory.

Variation in CFHR3 determines susceptibility to meningococcal disease by controlling factor H concentrations.

Neisseria meningitidis protects itself from complement-mediated killing by binding complement factor H (FH). Previous studies associated susceptibility to meningococcal disease (MD) with variation in CFH, but the causal variants and underlying mechanism remained unknown. Here we attempted to define the association more accurately by sequencing the CFH-CFHR locus and imputing missing genotypes in previously obtained GWAS datasets of MD-affected individuals of European ancestry and matched controls. We identified a CFHR3 SNP that provides protection from MD (rs75703017, p value = 1.1 × 10-16) by decreasing the concentration of FH in the blood (p value = 1.4 × 10-11). We subsequently used dual-luciferase studies and CRISPR gene editing to establish that deletion of rs75703017 increased FH expression in hepatocyte by preventing promotor inhibition. Our data suggest that reduced concentrations of FH in the blood confer protection from MD; with reduced access to FH, N. meningitidis is less able to shield itself from complement-mediated killing.

Low Levels of Factor H Family Proteins During Meningococcal Disease Indicate Systemic Processes Rather Than Specific Depletion by Neisseria meningitidis.

Neisseria meningitidis, the causative agent of meningococcal disease (MD), evades complement-mediated clearance upon infection by 'hijacking' the human complement regulator factor H (FH). The FH protein family also comprises the homologous FH-related (FHR) proteins, hypothesized to act as antagonists of FH, and FHR-3 has recently been implicated to play a major role in MD susceptibility. Here, we show that the circulating levels of all FH family proteins, not only FH and FHR-3, are equally decreased during the acute illness. We did neither observe specific consumption of FH or FHR-3 by N. meningitidis, nor of any of the other FH family proteins, suggesting that the globally reduced levels are due to systemic processes including dilution by fluid administration upon admission and vascular leakage. MD severity associated predominantly with a loss of FH rather than FHRs. Additionally, low FH levels associated with renal failure, suggesting insufficient protection of host tissue by the active protection by the FH protein family, which is reminiscent of reduced FH activity in hemolytic uremic syndrome. Retaining higher levels of FH may thus limit tissue injury during MD.

Portability of 245 polygenic scores when derived from the UK Biobank and applied to 9 ancestry groups from the same cohort.

The low portability of polygenic scores (PGSs) across global populations is a major concern that must be addressed before PGSs can be used for everyone in the clinic. Indeed, prediction accuracy has been shown to decay as a function of the genetic distance between the training and test cohorts. However, such cohorts differ not only in their genetic distance but also in their geographical distance and their data collection and assaying, conflating multiple factors. In this study, we examine the extent to which PGSs are transferable between ancestries by deriving polygenic scores for 245 curated traits from the UK Biobank data and applying them in nine ancestry groups from the same cohort. By restricting both training and testing to the UK Biobank data, we reduce the risk of environmental and genotyping confounding from using different cohorts. We define the nine ancestry groups at a sub-continental level, based on a simple, robust, and effective method that we introduce here. We then apply two different predictive methods to derive polygenic scores for all 245 phenotypes and show a systematic and dramatic reduction in portability of PGSs trained using Northwestern European individuals and applied to nine ancestry groups. These analyses demonstrate that prediction already drops off within European ancestries and reduces globally in proportion to genetic distance. Altogether, our study provides unique and robust insights into the PGS portability problem.

EraSOR: a software tool to eliminate inflation caused by sample overlap in polygenic score analyses.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses are now routinely applied across biomedical research. However, as PRS studies grow in size, there is an increased risk of sample overlap between the genome-wide association study (GWAS) from which the PRS is derived and the "target sample," in which PRSs are computed and hypotheses are tested. Despite the wide recognition of the sample overlap problem, its potential impact on the results from PRS studies has not yet been quantified, and no analytical solution has been provided. FINDINGS: Here, we first conduct a comprehensive investigation into the scale of the sample overlap problem, finding that PRS results can be substantially inflated even in the presence of minimal overlap. Next, we introduce a method and software, EraSOR (Erase Sample Overlap and Relatedness), which eliminates the inflation caused by sample overlap (and close relatedness) in almost all settings tested here. CONCLUSIONS: EraSOR could be useful in PRS studies (with target sample >1,000) similar to those investigated here, either (i) to mitigate the potential effects of known or unknown intercohort overlap and close relatedness or (ii) as a sensitivity tool to highlight the possible presence of sample overlap before its direct removal, when possible, or else to provide a lower bound on PRS analysis results after accounting for potential sample overlap.

Detectable A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase With Thrombospondin Motifs-1 in Serum Is Associated With Adverse Outcome in Pediatric Sepsis.

IMPORTANCE: A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 is hypothesized to play a role in the pathogenesis of invasive infection, but studies in sepsis are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To study A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 protein level in pediatric sepsis and to study the association with outcome. DESIGN: Data from two prospective cohort studies. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort 1 is from a single-center study involving children admitted to PICU with meningococcal sepsis (samples obtained at three time points). Cohort 2 includes patients from a multicenter study involving children admitted to the hospital with invasive bacterial infections of differing etiologies (samples obtained within 48 hr after hospital admission). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcome measure was mortality. Secondary outcome measures were PICU-free days at day 28 and hospital length of stay. RESULTS: In cohort 1 (n = 59), nonsurvivors more frequently had A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 levels above the detection limit than survivors at admission to PICU (8/11 [73%] and 6/23 [26%], respectively; p = 0.02) and at t = 24 hours (2/3 [67%] and 3/37 [8%], respectively; p = 0.04). In cohort 2 (n = 240), A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 levels in patients within 48 hours after hospital admission were more frequently above the detection limit than in healthy controls (110/240 [46%] and 14/64 [22%], respectively; p = 0.001). Nonsurvivors more often had detectable A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 levels than survivors (16/21 [76%] and 94/219 [43%], respectively; p = 0.003), which was mostly attributable to patients with Neisseria meningitidis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In children with bacterial infection, detection of A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 within 48 hours after hospital admission is associated with death, particularly in meningococcal sepsis. Future studies should confirm the prognostic value of A Disintegrin and Metalloproteinase with Thrombospondin Motifs-1 and should study pathophysiologic mechanisms.

Treatment of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is urgently needed to support treatment decisions for children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. METHODS: We performed an international observational cohort study of clinical and outcome data regarding suspected MIS-C that had been uploaded by physicians onto a Web-based database. We used inverse-probability weighting and generalized linear models to evaluate intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) as a reference, as compared with IVIG plus glucocorticoids and glucocorticoids alone. There were two primary outcomes: the first was a composite of inotropic support or mechanical ventilation by day 2 or later or death; the second was a reduction in disease severity on an ordinal scale by day 2. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation and the time until a reduction in organ failure and inflammation. RESULTS: Data were available regarding the course of treatment for 614 children from 32 countries from June 2020 through February 2021; 490 met the World Health Organization criteria for MIS-C. Of the 614 children with suspected MIS-C, 246 received primary treatment with IVIG alone, 208 with IVIG plus glucocorticoids, and 99 with glucocorticoids alone; 22 children received other treatment combinations, including biologic agents, and 39 received no immunomodulatory therapy. Receipt of inotropic or ventilatory support or death occurred in 56 patients who received IVIG plus glucocorticoids (adjusted odds ratio for the comparison with IVIG alone, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33 to 1.82) and in 17 patients who received glucocorticoids alone (adjusted odds ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.22 to 1.33). The adjusted odds ratios for a reduction in disease severity were similar in the two groups, as compared with IVIG alone (0.90 for IVIG plus glucocorticoids and 0.93 for glucocorticoids alone). The time until a reduction in disease severity was similar in the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that recovery from MIS-C differed after primary treatment with IVIG alone, IVIG plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, although significant differences may emerge as more data accrue. (Funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Program and others; BATS ISRCTN number, ISRCTN69546370.).

Identification of novel locus associated with coronary artery aneurysms and validation of loci for susceptibility to Kawasaki disease.

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a paediatric vasculitis associated with coronary artery aneurysms (CAA). Genetic variants influencing susceptibility to KD have been previously identified, but no risk alleles have been validated that influence CAA formation. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for CAA in KD patients of European descent with 200 cases and 276 controls. A second GWAS for susceptibility pooled KD cases with healthy paediatric controls from vaccine trials in the UK (n = 1609). Logistic regression mixed models were used for both GWASs. The susceptibility GWAS was meta-analysed with 400 KD cases and 6101 controls from a previous European GWAS, these results were further meta-analysed with Japanese GWASs at two putative loci. The CAA GWAS identified an intergenic region of chromosome 20q13 with multiple SNVs showing genome-wide significance. The risk allele of the most associated SNV (rs6017006) was present in 13% of cases and 4% of controls; in East Asian 1000 Genomes data, the allele was absent or rare. Susceptibility GWAS with meta-analysis with previously published European data identified two previously associated loci (ITPKC and FCGR2A). Further meta-analysis with Japanese GWAS summary data from the CASP3 and FAM167A genomic regions validated these loci in Europeans showing consistent effects of the top SNVs in both populations. We identified a novel locus for CAA in KD patients of European descent. The results suggest that different genes determine susceptibility to KD and development of CAA and future work should focus on the function of the intergenic region on chromosome 20q13.

Evaluation of Host Serum Protein Biomarkers of Tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa.

Accurate and affordable point-of-care diagnostics for tuberculosis (TB) are needed. Host serum protein signatures have been derived for use in primary care settings, however validation of these in secondary care settings is lacking. We evaluated serum protein biomarkers discovered in primary care cohorts from Africa reapplied to patients from secondary care. In this nested case-control study, concentrations of 22 proteins were quantified in sera from 292 patients from Malawi and South Africa who presented predominantly to secondary care. Recruitment was based upon intention of local clinicians to test for TB. The case definition for TB was culture positivity for Mycobacterium tuberculosis; and for other diseases (OD) a confirmed alternative diagnosis. Equal numbers of TB and OD patients were selected. Within each group, there were equal numbers with and without HIV and from each site. Patients were split into training and test sets for biosignature discovery. A nine-protein signature to distinguish TB from OD was discovered comprising fibrinogen, alpha-2-macroglobulin, CRP, MMP-9, transthyretin, complement factor H, IFN-gamma, IP-10, and TNF-alpha. This signature had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training set of 90% (95% CI 86-95%), and, after adjusting the cut-off for increased sensitivity, a sensitivity and specificity in the test set of 92% (95% CI 80-98%) and 71% (95% CI 56-84%), respectively. The best single biomarker was complement factor H [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 70% (95% CI 64-76%)]. Biosignatures consisting of host serum proteins may function as point-of-care screening tests for TB in African hospitals. Complement factor H is identified as a new biomarker for such signatures.

A three-marker protein biosignature distinguishes tuberculosis from other respiratory diseases in Gambian children.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to identify a host cytokine biosignature that could distinguish childhood tuberculosis (TB) from other respiratory diseases (OD). METHODS: Cytokine responses in prospectively recruited children with symptoms suggestive of TB were measured in whole blood assay supernatants, harvested after overnight incubation, using a Luminex platform. We used logistic regression models with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalty to identify the optimal biosignature associated with confirmed TB disease in the training set. We subsequently assessed its performance in the test set. FINDINGS: Of the 431 children included in the study, 44 had bacteriologically confirmed TB, 60 had clinically diagnosed TB while 327 had OD. All children were HIV-negative. Application of LASSO regression models to the training set (n = 260) resulted in the combination of IL-1ra, IL-7 and IP-10 from unstimulated samples as the optimally discriminant cytokine biosignature associated with bacteriologically confirmed TB. In the test set (n = 171), this biosignature distinguished children diagnosed with TB disease, irrespective of microbiological confirmation, from OD with area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0•74 (95% CI: 0•67, 0•81), and demonstrated sensitivity and specificity of 72•2% (95% CI: 60•4, 82•1%) and 75•0% (95% CI: 64•9, 83•4%) respectively, with its performance independent of their age group and their age- and sex-adjusted nutritional status. INTERPRETATION: This novel biosignature of childhood TB derived from unstimulated supernatants is promising. Independent validation with further optimisation will improve its performance and translational potential. FUNDING: Steinberg Fellowship (McGill University); Grand Challenges Canada; MRC Program Grant.

Massively parallel reporter assays of melanoma risk variants identify MX2 as a gene promoting melanoma.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified ~20 melanoma susceptibility loci, most of which are not functionally characterized. Here we report an approach integrating massively-parallel reporter assays (MPRA) with cell-type-specific epigenome and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) to identify susceptibility genes/variants from multiple GWAS loci. From 832 high-LD variants, we identify 39 candidate functional variants from 14 loci displaying allelic transcriptional activity, a subset of which corroborates four colocalizing melanocyte cis-eQTL genes. Among these, we further characterize the locus encompassing the HIV-1 restriction gene, MX2 (Chr21q22.3), and validate a functional intronic variant, rs398206. rs398206 mediates the binding of the transcription factor, YY1, to increase MX2 levels, consistent with the cis-eQTL of MX2 in primary human melanocytes. Melanocyte-specific expression of human MX2 in a zebrafish model demonstrates accelerated melanoma formation in a BRAFV600E background. Our integrative approach streamlines GWAS follow-up studies and highlights a pleiotropic function of MX2 in melanoma susceptibility.

A polygenic biomarker to identify patients with severe hypercholesterolemia of polygenic origin.

BACKGROUND: Severe hypercholesterolemia (HC, LDL-C > 4.9 mmol/L) affects over 30 million people worldwide. In this study, we validated a new polygenic risk score (PRS) for LDL-C. METHODS: Summary statistics from the Global Lipid Genome Consortium and genotype data from two large populations were used. RESULTS: A 36-SNP PRS was generated using data for 2,197 white Americans. In a replication cohort of 4,787 Finns, the PRS was strongly associated with the LDL-C trait and explained 8% of its variability (p = 10-41 ). After risk categorization, the risk of having HC was higher in the high- versus low-risk group (RR = 4.17, p < 1 × 10-7 ). Compared to a 12-SNP LDL-C raising score (currently used in the United Kingdom), the PRS explained more LDL-C variability (8% vs. 6%). Among Finns with severe HC, 53% (66/124) versus 44% (55/124) were classified as high risk by the PRS and LDL-C raising score, respectively. Moreover, 54% of individuals with severe HC defined as low risk by the LDL-C raising score were reclassified to intermediate or high risk by the new PRS. CONCLUSION: The new PRS has a better predictive role in identifying HC of polygenic origin compared to the currently available method and can better stratify patients into diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms.