Predictive modelling of transport decisions and resources optimisation in pre-hospital setting using machine learning techniques.

BACKGROUND: The global evolution of pre-hospital care systems faces dynamic challenges, particularly in multinational settings. Machine learning (ML) techniques enable the exploration of deeply embedded data patterns for improved patient care and resource optimisation. This study's objective was to accurately predict cases that necessitated transportation versus those that did not, using ML techniques, thereby facilitating efficient resource allocation. METHODS: ML algorithms were utilised to predict patient transport decisions in a Middle Eastern national pre-hospital emergency medical care provider. A comprehensive dataset comprising 93,712 emergency calls from the 999-call centre was analysed using R programming language. Demographic and clinical variables were incorporated to enhance predictive accuracy. Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) algorithms were trained and validated. RESULTS: All the trained algorithm models, particularly XGBoost (Accuracy = 83.1%), correctly predicted patients' transportation decisions. Further, they indicated statistically significant patterns that could be leveraged for targeted resource deployment. Moreover, the specificity rates were high; 97.96% in RF and 95.39% in XGBoost, minimising the incidence of incorrectly identified "Transported" cases (False Positive). CONCLUSION: The study identified the transformative potential of ML algorithms in enhancing the quality of pre-hospital care in Qatar. The high predictive accuracy of the employed models suggested actionable avenues for day and time-specific resource planning and patient triaging, thereby having potential to contribute to pre-hospital quality, safety, and value improvement. These findings pave the way for more nuanced, data-driven quality improvement interventions with significant implications for future operational strategies.

Epidemiology of prehospital emergency calls according to patient transport decision in a middle eastern emergency care environment: Retrospective cohort-based.

Background and Aim: Though emergency medical services (EMS) respond to all types of emergency calls, they do not always result in the patient being transported to the hospital. This study aimed to explore the determinants influencing emergency call-response-based conveyance decisions in a Middle Eastern ambulance service. Methods: This retrospective quantitative analysis of 93,712 emergency calls to the Hamad Medical Corporation Ambulance Service (HMCAS) between January 1 and May 31, 2023, obtained from the HMCAS electronic system, was analyzed to determine pertinent variables. Sociodemographic, emergency dispatch-related, clinical, and miscellaneous predictors were analyzed. Descriptive, bivariate, ridge logistic regression, and combination analyses were evaluated. Results: 23.95% (N = 21,194) and 76.05% (N = 67,285) resulted in patient nontransport and transportation, respectively. Sociodemographic analysis revealed that males predominantly activated EMS resources, and 60% of males (n = 12,687) were not transported, whilst 65% of females (n = 44,053) were transported. South Asians represented a significant proportion of the transported patients (36%, n = 24,007). "Home" emerged as the primary emergency location (56%, n = 37,725). Bivariate analysis revealed significant associations across several variables, though multicollinearity was identified as a challenge. Ridge regression analysis underscored the role of certain predictors, such as missing provisional diagnoses, in transportation decisions. The upset plot shows that hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common combinations in both groups. Conclusions: This study highlights the nuanced complexities governing conveyance decisions. By unveiling patterns such as male predominance, which reflects Qatar's expatriate population, and specific temporal EMS activity peaks, this study accentuates the importance of holistic patient assessment that transcends medical histories.

Exploring factors influencing time from dispatch to unit availability according to the transport decision in the pre-hospital setting: an exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: Efficient resource distribution is important. Despite extensive research on response timings within ambulance services, nuances of time from unit dispatch to becoming available still need to be explored. This study aimed to identify the determinants of the duration between ambulance dispatch and readiness to respond to the next case according to the patients' transport decisions. METHODS: Time from ambulance dispatch to availability (TDA) analysis according to the patients' transport decision (Transport versus Non-Transport) was conducted using R-Studio™ for a data set of 93,712 emergency calls managed by a Middle Eastern ambulance service from January to May 2023. Log-transformed Hazard Ratios (HR) were examined across diverse parameters. A Cox regression model was utilised to determine the influence of variables on TDA. Kaplan-Meier curves discerned potential variances in the time elapsed for both cohorts based on demographics and clinical indicators. A competing risk analysis assessed the probabilities of distinct outcomes occurring. RESULTS: The median duration of elapsed TDA was 173 min for the transported patients and 73 min for those not transported. The HR unveiled Significant associations in various demographic variables. The Kaplan-Meier curves revealed variances in TDA across different nationalities and age categories. In the competing risk analysis, the 'Not Transported' group demonstrated a higher incidence of prolonged TDA than the 'Transported' group at specified time points. CONCLUSIONS: Exploring TDA offers a novel perspective on ambulance services' efficiency. Though promising, the findings necessitate further exploration across diverse settings, ensuring broader applicability. Future research should consider a comprehensive range of variables to fully harness the utility of this period as a metric for healthcare excellence.

Enhancing Patient Safety in Prehospital Environment: Analyzing Patient Perspectives on Non-Transport Decisions With Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning.

OBJECTIVE: This research explored the experiences and perspectives of patients declining hospital transportation after receiving prehospital emergency care using advanced computational techniques. METHOD: Between 15th June and 1st August 2023, 210 patients in Qatar, treated by Hamad Medical Corporation Ambulance Service (HMCAS) but refusing transportation to hospital, were interviewed. Key outcome variables stratified by demographics included "reasons for refusing transport," "satisfaction with HMCAS service," and "postrefusal actions." Responses underwent sentiment analysis and topic modeling using latent Dirichlet allocation. Machine learning models, such as Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighboring, random forest, and support vector machine, were used to predict patients' subsequent actions. RESULTS: Participants had an average age of 38.61 ± 19.91 years. The chief complaints were primarily chest and abdominal pains (18.49%; n = 39). Sentiment Analysis revealed a generally favorable perception of HMCAS-provided service. Latent Dirichlet allocation identified two main topics pertaining to refusal reasons and service satisfaction. Naïve Bayes and support vector machine algorithms were most effective in predicting postrefusal actions with an accuracy rate of 81.58%. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted the utility of Natural Language Processing and ML in enhancing our understanding of patient behaviors and sentiments in prehospital settings. These advanced computational methodologies allowed for a nuanced exploration of patient demographics and sentiments, providing insights for Quality Improvement initiatives. The study also advocates for continuously integrating automated feedback mechanisms to improve patient-centered care in the prehospital context. Continuous integration of automated feedback systems is recommended to improve prehospital patient-centered care.

Can we use normal saline stored under stress conditions? A simulated prehospital emergency medical setting.

Background: Data on stability and suitability to use normal saline stored under stress conditions in ambulances is lacking. Objective: We aimed to study the impact of exposure to extreme temperature variations on normal saline stability and compatibility with its packaging. Methods: Normal saline in 96 polyolefin bags were exposed to continuous temperature of 22, 50, and 70 °C or to a cyclic temperature of 70 °C per 8 h and 22 °C per 16 h. The bags were sampled at 12, 24, 48 and 72 h and at 1, 2, 3, and 4 weeks in the short- and long-term experiments, respectively. Solution inside the bags was evaluated for any evidence of crystallization, discoloration, turbidity, or pH changes. A sample of normal saline was withdrawn from each bag to analyze sodium and chloride levels. Results: Precipitation, discoloration, or turbidity were not observed in the solution inside normal saline bags. The average pH was 5.59 at 22 °C, 5.73 at 50 °C, 5.86 at 70 °C and 5.79 at cyclic exposure. In the short- and long-term experiments, sodium and chloride concentrations were within 100.2-111.27% and 99.04-110.95%, respectively. Leaching of the plastic components in the polyolefin bag into the normal saline solution was not detected. Conclusions: Sodium and chloride levels of normal saline were stable and compatible with polyolefin bags stored in simulated continuous and cyclic extreme temperatures for around one month. The effect of storage in the cabinet of operational ambulance vehicles during different seasons in arid countries is yet to be evaluated in real-world conditions, to further confirm our results.

Radical reform of the undergraduate medical education program in a developing country: the Egyptian experience.

Medical educators are in a continuous quest to close the gap between the needs of medical practice and the rising expectations of the communities in their countries. During the past two decades, competency-based medical education has been evolving as an appealing strategy to close this gap. In 2017, the Egyptian medical education authorities mandated all medical schools to change their curricula to comply with revised national academic reference standards, which changed from outcome-based to competency-based. In parallel, they also changed the timeline of all medical programs for six years of studentship and one-year internship to five years and two years, respectively. This substantial reform involved the assessment of the existing situation, an awareness campaign for the proposed changes and an extensive national faculty development program. Monitoring the implementation of this substantial reform was performed through surveys, field visits and meetings with students, teaching staff and program directors. In addition to the expected challenges, the COVID-19-associated restrictions presented a significant further challenge during the implementation of this reform. This article presents the rationale for and steps of this reform, the challenges faced and how they were addressed.

Predictors of enablers and barriers to community pharmacists' management of minor ailments in a developing setting: A theory-driven assessment.

BACKGROUND: The clinical and financial burdens associated with minor ailments are well documented, but published evidence suggests that minor ailment services led by community pharmacists have a remarkable positive impact, mainly in developed settings. There is a paucity of evidence on community pharmacists' self-perceived enablers and barriers to the effective management of minor ailments. OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to identify community pharmacists' self-perceived enablers and barriers to the effective management of minor ailments as well as their significant predictors. METHODS: A Kurt Lewin's theory-driven cross-sectional survey of 305 community pharmacists was conducted in Qatar using a pretested 25-item structured questionnaire developed with an adapted conceptual framework focused on 4 key areas: education, regulation, practice, and research. Bivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant predictors of community pharmacists' self-perceived enablers and barriers. RESULTS: The response rate was 92.5% (282/305). Most of the respondents (68.1%) were males, who were 31-40 years of age (55.3%) and worked for pharmacy chains (77.3%). Community pharmacists identified a higher proportion of enablers (positive force) (82.4%) relative to only 3 barriers (negative force) (17.6%). The barriers identified included insufficient private or semiprivate space for patient counseling, the paucity of invitations to participate in practice-based research, and lack of feedback regarding the results and recommendations of previous research in which they were participants. The significant predictors of self-perceived enablers and barriers were female gender (odds ratio [OR], 2.21; 95% CI, 1.25-3.91; P = 0.007) and age group of ≤40 years (OR, 4.74; 95% CI, 3.50-7.16; P = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Community pharmacists' perceptions of the factors that enhance their effective management of minor ailments were overwhelmingly positive, as 14 enablers were identified relative to only 3 barriers. Female and young community pharmacists were significantly more likely to perceive enablers than barriers. The insights provided are potentially useful in developing pharmacy-based schemes to improve the effective management of minor ailments.

The Effectiveness and Safety of Serious Games for Improving Cognitive Abilities Among Elderly People With Cognitive Impairment: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment is a mental disorder that commonly affects elderly people. Serious games, which are games that have a purpose other than entertainment, have been used as a nonpharmacological intervention for improving cognitive abilities. The effectiveness and safety of serious games for improving cognitive abilities have been investigated by several systematic reviews; however, they are limited by design and methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the effectiveness and safety of serious games for improving cognitive abilities among elderly people with cognitive impairment. METHODS: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was conducted. The following 8 electronic databases were searched: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Google Scholar. We also screened reference lists of the included studies and relevant reviews, as well as checked studies citing our included studies. Two reviewers independently carried out the study selection, data extraction, risk of bias assessment, and quality of evidence appraisal. We used a narrative and statistical approach, as appropriate, to synthesize the results of the included studies. RESULTS: Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria among 466 citations retrieved. Of those, 14 RCTs were eventually included in the meta-analysis. We found that, regardless of their type, serious games were more effective than no intervention (P=.04) and conventional exercises (P=.002) for improving global cognition among elderly people with cognitive impairment. Further, a subgroup analysis showed that cognitive training games were more effective than no intervention (P=.05) and conventional exercises (P<.001) for improving global cognition among elderly people with cognitive impairment. Another subgroup analysis demonstrated that exergames (a category of serious games that includes physical exercises) are as effective as no intervention and conventional exercises (P=.38) for improving global cognition among elderly people with cognitive impairment. Although some studies found adverse events from using serious games, the number of adverse events (ie, falls and exacerbations of pre-existing arthritis symptoms) was comparable between the serious game and control groups. CONCLUSIONS: Serious games and specifically cognitive training games have the potential to improve global cognition among elderly people with cognitive impairment. However, our findings remain inconclusive because the quality of evidence in all meta-analyses was very low, mainly due to the risk of bias raised in the majority of the included studies, high heterogeneity of the evidence, and imprecision of total effect sizes. Therefore, psychologists, psychiatrists, and patients should consider offering serious games as a complement and not a substitute to existing interventions until further more robust evidence is available. Further studies are needed to assess the effect of exergames, the safety of serious games, and their long-term effects.

Managing Clozapine in Primary Care Settings.

The Psychiatric Consultation Service at Massachusetts General Hospital sees medical and surgical inpatients with comorbid psychiatric symptoms and conditions. During their twice-weekly rounds, Dr Stern and other members of the Consultation Service discuss diagnosis and management of hospitalized patients with complex medical or surgical problems who also demonstrate psychiatric symptoms or conditions. These discussions have given rise to rounds reports that will prove useful for clinicians practicing at the interface of medicine and psychiatry.

Determinants of community pharmacists' information gathering and counseling practices during the management of minor ailments.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the determinants of community pharmacists' information gathering and counseling practices during the management of minor ailments in Qatar. METHOD: A cross-sectional study of 305 community pharmacists was conducted with a pre-tested 27-item questionnaire. Bivariate logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of information gathering and counseling practices. RESULTS: The response rate was 92.5% (282/305). A majority of the respondents (68.1%) were males, within the age range of 31-40 years (55.3%), work for chains pharmacies (77.3%), and were predominantly of foreign nationalities (94.7%). Patients' identity (91.1%), age (92.2%), symptoms (92.6%) and duration of symptoms (89.3%) were most frequent information gathered, while dose (99%), frequency (97.8%), route of administration (95.7%), and duration of use (92.9%) were the most frequent counseling information. Median information gathering score was significantly higher in females and among community pharmacists in chain pharmacies (p < 0.05), while median counseling practice scores were significantly higher among in chain pharmacies (p < 0.05). Consultation time of 6-10 min (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.02-3.0, p = 0.04) and female gender (OR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.16-3.79, p = 0.01) were significant determinants of information gathering, while age group (31-40 years) (OR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.05-3.22, p = 0.03) and consultation time (6-10 min) (OR = 2.24, 95% CI: 1.31-3.86, p = 0.003) were significant determinants of counseling practices. CONCLUSION: The significant determinants of community pharmacists' Information gathering and counseling practices during the management of minor ailments were female gender and consultation time (6-10 min), and age group (31-40 years) and consultation time (6-10 min) respectively.

Management of common minor ailments in Qatar: Community pharmacists' self-perceived competency and its predictors.

Studies focused on comprehensive assessment of self-perceived competency of community pharmacists to manage minor ailments are scanty despite that self-perceived competency is a valid determinant of task performance. The objectives of the study were to assess community pharmacists' self-perceived competency to manage fourteen common minor ailments in Qatar, and identify its significant predictors. A cross-sectional assessment of 307 community pharmacists was conducted with a pre-tested 20-item questionnaire. Self-perceived competency was assessed with nine elements on a scale of 1-10 (Maximum obtainable score: Each minor ailment = 90; each element = 140). Mann-Whitney U and bivariate logistic regression were used for data analyses. The response rate was 91.9% (282/307). The majority of the respondents were males (68.1%; 192/282), within the age range of 31-40 years (55.3%; 156/282). The minor ailments with the highest median competency score were constipation (76), and cold/catarrh (75) while travel sickness (69), and ringworm (69) had the lowest. The two condition-specific competency elements with the highest median score were recommendation of over-the-counter (OTC) medicines (115), and provision of instructions to guide its use (115). Ability to differentiate minor ailments from other medical conditions had the lowest median competency score (109). The significant predictors self-perceived competency were female gender (OR = 2.39, 95%CI: 1.34-4.25, p = 0.003), and working for chain pharmacies (OR = 2.54, 95%CI: 1.30-4.96, p = 0.006). Overall, Community pharmacists' self-perceived competency was adequate for majority of the common minor ailments, and it was highest for constipation and cold/catarrh, and specifically for the recommendation of OTC medicines and provision of instructions to guide its use. However, diagnostic ability to differentiate minor ailments from other medical conditions with similar features had the lowest median competency score. Female gender and working in chain pharmacies were the significant predictors of self-perceived competency to manage minor ailments.

Community pharmacists' management of minor ailments in developing countries: A systematic review of types, recommendations, information gathering and counselling practices.

AIMS: To conduct a systematic review of the management of minor ailments by community pharmacists in developing countries, and to identify the specific minor ailments encountered, the medications recommended or requested and the information gathering and counselling practices. METHOD: Observational studies from developing countries published in English language from inception to 2019 and report the management of minor ailments by community pharmacists were systematically searched in PubMed, ScienceDirect and Cochrane Library. RESULTS: Thirty full-text studies, out of 7876 retrieved and screened, were included in the systematic review. Minor ailment-induced encounters by patients with community pharmacists are generally pervasive and involve mainly verbal request for specific medicines by name (60%). The most frequent minor ailments reported were respiratory, gastrointestinal and musculoskeletal conditions, and the most common medicines recommended or requested for were cough/cold preparations, antimotility and oral rehydration preparation, and analgesic/antipyretic. Inappropriate recommendation of antibiotics were reported for acute diarrhoea and cough/colds (40%) (10/25). Community pharmacists encountered 11-30 customers with minor ailments per day, with an average of about 4.8 (1.3-20.5) minutes per encounter. None of the studies reported the availability and/or use of a specific protocol to guide the management of minor ailments. There was wide variation in the type and depth of information gathered and used for the management of minor ailments; and the counselling information provided by community pharmacists, and there was no evidence of the documentation activities related to the management of minor ailments. CONCLUSIONS: Community pharmacists' encounter with and management of minor ailments appear extensive in developing countries and probably present an opportunity to contribute significantly to reduce disease burden and enhance public health. However, the management process is currently unstructured, unguided by a specific protocol and vary in the quality of recommendations, information gathering and counselling practices.

Using Padé Approximant Method to Solve the Mathematical Model of Tumor-Immune Interactions.

A mathematical model, in the form of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, that describes the interaction between tumor cells and effective immune cells is proposed. An exact solution cannot be found to this system like many other nonlinear systems. Yet, approximate analytical solution is explored. This solution should have a large interval of convergence to be acceptable because the interaction can take many days to reach its steady state. Power series method is used to obtain a series solution. In this process, some auxiliary variables are used to transform the system of equations to polynomial form. However, this solution has a small radius of convergence, therefore, Padé approximant method is used to extend the domain of convergence. Hence, the obtained approximate analytical solution is valid over a large interval and has a remarkable accuracy when compared with numerical solution.

Progressive dysexecutive syndrome due to Alzheimer's disease: a description of 55 cases and comparison to other phenotypes.

We report a group of patients presenting with a progressive dementia syndrome characterized by predominant dysfunction in core executive functions, relatively young age of onset and positive biomarkers for Alzheimer's pathophysiology. Atypical frontal, dysexecutive/behavioural variants and early-onset variants of Alzheimer's disease have been previously reported, but no diagnostic criteria exist for a progressive dysexecutive syndrome. In this retrospective review, we report on 55 participants diagnosed with a clinically defined progressive dysexecutive syndrome with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography and Alzheimer's disease biomarkers available. Sixty-two per cent of participants were female with a mean of 15.2 years of education. The mean age of reported symptom onset was 53.8 years while the mean age at diagnosis was 57.2 years. Participants and informants commonly referred to initial cognitive symptoms as 'memory problems' but upon further inquiry described problems with core executive functions of working memory, cognitive flexibility and cognitive inhibitory control. Multi-domain cognitive impairment was evident in neuropsychological testing with executive dysfunction most consistently affected. The frontal and parietal regions which overlap with working memory networks consistently demonstrated hypometabolism on positron emission tomography. Genetic testing for autosomal dominant genes was negative in all eight participants tested and at least one APOE ε4 allele was present in 14/26 participants tested. EEG was abnormal in 14/17 cases with 13 described as diffuse slowing. Furthermore, CSF or neuroimaging biomarkers were consistent with Alzheimer's disease pathophysiology, although CSF p-tau was normal in 24% of cases. Fifteen of the executive predominate participants enrolled in research neuroimaging protocols and were compared to amnestic (n = 110), visual (n = 18) and language (n = 7) predominate clinical phenotypes of Alzheimer's disease. This revealed a consistent pattern of hypometabolism in parieto-frontal brain regions supporting executive functions with relative sparing of the medial temporal lobe (versus amnestic phenotype), occipital (versus visual phenotype) and left temporal (versus language phenotype). We propose that this progressive dysexecutive syndrome should be recognized as a distinct clinical phenotype disambiguated from behavioural presentations and not linked specifically to the frontal lobe or a particular anatomic substrate without further study. This clinical presentation can be due to Alzheimer's disease but is likely not specific for any single aetiology. Diagnostic criteria are proposed to facilitate additional research into this understudied clinical presentation.

Mathematical Modelling for the Role of CD4+T Cells in Tumor-Immune Interactions.

Mathematical modelling has been used to study tumor-immune cell interaction. Some models were proposed to examine the effect of circulating lymphocytes, natural killer cells, and CD8+T cells, but they neglected the role of CD4+T cells. Other models were constructed to study the role of CD4+T cells but did not consider the role of other immune cells. In this study, we propose a mathematical model, in the form of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, that predicts the interaction between tumor cells and natural killer cells, CD4+T cells, CD8+T cells, and circulating lymphocytes with or without immunotherapy and/or chemotherapy. This system is stiff, and the Runge-Kutta method failed to solve it. Consequently, the "Adams predictor-corrector" method is used. The results reveal that the patient's immune system can overcome small tumors; however, if the tumor is large, adoptive therapy with CD4+T cells can be an alternative to both CD8+T cell therapy and cytokines in some cases. Moreover, CD4+T cell therapy could replace chemotherapy depending upon tumor size. Even if a combination of chemotherapy and immunotherapy is necessary, using CD4+T cell therapy can better reduce the dose of the associated chemotherapy compared to using combined CD8+T cells and cytokine therapy. Stability analysis is performed for the studied patients. It has been found that all equilibrium points are unstable, and a condition for preventing tumor recurrence after treatment has been deduced. Finally, a bifurcation analysis is performed to study the effect of varying system parameters on the stability, and bifurcation points are specified. New equilibrium points are created or demolished at some bifurcation points, and stability is changed at some others. Hence, for systems turning to be stable, tumors can be eradicated without the possibility of recurrence. The proposed mathematical model provides a valuable tool for designing patients' treatment intervention strategies.