Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available. METHODS: We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution. FINDINGS: In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain). INTERPRETATION: Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised. FUNDING: EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.

[Processed and ultra-processed products and their relationship to quality of diet in childrenProdutos processados e ultraprocessados e sua relação com a qualidade da dieta em crianças]. / Productos procesados y ultraprocesados y su relación con la calidad de la dieta en niños.

Objective: Estimate the impact on quality in the early childhood diet (ages 2 to 4 years) in Uruguay, resulting from consumption of products containing excessive amounts of critical nutrients associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium), according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Nutrient Profile Model. Methods: A 24-hour dietary recall survey was used with a representative sample of 401 participants from the 2018 Nutrition, Child Development, and Health Survey. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize foods according to the nature and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Foods were then analyzed using the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model, enabling identification of products with excessive amounts of these nutrients. Results: Fifty percent of children consumed three or more products with an excess of some of the nutrients linked to NCDs. About 9 out of 10 children consume products with an excess of at least one of the critical nutrients studied. Conclusion: Diets that do not contain ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, or sodium were the best choice for children aged 2 to 4 years. Based on PAHO criteria, the consumption of products with excess critical nutrients (and of each additional gram of these products) significantly worsens diet quality, and impedes adherence to World Health Organization recommendations.

Objetivo: Estimar o efeito do consumo de produtos que contêm quantidades excessivas de nutrientes críticos associados a doenças não transmissíveis (DCNTs) ­ açúcares livres, gorduras totais, gorduras saturadas e sódio ­, de acordo com o modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS), na qualidade da dieta da primeira infância uruguaia (crianças de 2 a 4 anos). Métodos: Um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas foi aplicado a uma amostra representativa de 401 participantes da Pesquisa de Nutrição, Desenvolvimento Infantil e Saúde de 2018. Foi utilizada a classificação proposta pelo sistema NOVA para categorizar os alimentos de acordo com sua natureza e os processos industriais a que são submetidos. A análise foi feita com base no modelo de perfil nutricional da OPAS, que possibilitou identificar os produtos com teor excessivo dos nutrientes supracitados. Resultados: Das crianças avaliadas, 50% consumiram três ou mais produtos com excesso de algum dos nutrientes vinculados às DCNT. Aproximadamente 9 em cada 10 crianças consomem produtos com excesso de pelo menos um dos nutrientes críticos estudados. Conclusão: As dietas que não contêm produtos ultraprocessados e processados com excesso de açúcares livres, gordura total, gordura saturada e sódio foram a melhor opção para crianças de 2 a 4 anos. A ingestão de produtos com excesso de nutrientes críticos segundo a OPAS (e cada grama adicional consumido desses produtos) piora significativamente a qualidade da dieta e impede o cumprimento das recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde.

Productos procesados y ultraprocesados y su relación con la calidad de la dieta en niños

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Estimar el efecto que representa en la calidad de la dieta de la primera infancia uruguaya —niños de 2 a 4 años— el consumo de productos que contienen cantidades excesivas de nutrientes críticos asociados a las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) (azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio), según el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS). Métodos. Se utilizó un recordatorio de ingesta de alimentos durante 24 horas en una muestra representativa de 401 participantes de la Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del año 2018. Se usó la clasificación de alimentos propuesta por el sistema NOVA para categorizarlos según su naturaleza y los procesos industriales a los que son sometidos. A partir de esto se lo analizó con base en el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la OPS, lo cual permitió identificar los productos con contenido excesivo de estos nutrientes. Resultados. El 50 % de los niños consumieron tres o más productos con exceso de alguno de los nutrientes vinculados con las ENT. Aproximadamente 9 de cada 10 niños consumen productos con exceso de al menos uno de los nutrientes críticos estudiados. Conclusión. Las dietas que no contienen productos ultraprocesados y procesados con exceso de azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio fueron la mejor opción para los niños de 2 a 4 años. La ingesta de productos con exceso de nutrientes críticos según la OPS (y cada gramo adicional consumido de tales productos) empeora la calidad de la dieta de manera significativa, e impide que se cumpla con las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. Estimate the impact on quality in the early childhood diet (ages 2 to 4 years) in Uruguay, resulting from consumption of products containing excessive amounts of critical nutrients associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium), according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Nutrient Profile Model. Methods. A 24-hour dietary recall survey was used with a representative sample of 401 participants from the 2018 Nutrition, Child Development, and Health Survey. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize foods according to the nature and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Foods were then analyzed using the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model, enabling identification of products with excessive amounts of these nutrients. Results. Fifty percent of children consumed three or more products with an excess of some of the nutrients linked to NCDs. About 9 out of 10 children consume products with an excess of at least one of the critical nutrients studied. Conclusion. Diets that do not contain ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, or sodium were the best choice for children aged 2 to 4 years. Based on PAHO criteria, the consumption of products with excess critical nutrients (and of each additional gram of these products) significantly worsens diet quality, and impedes adherence to World Health Organization recommendations.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Estimar o efeito do consumo de produtos que contêm quantidades excessivas de nutrientes críticos associados a doenças não transmissíveis (DCNTs) – açúcares livres, gorduras totais, gorduras saturadas e sódio –, de acordo com o modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS), na qualidade da dieta da primeira infância uruguaia (crianças de 2 a 4 anos). Métodos. Um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas foi aplicado a uma amostra representativa de 401 participantes da Pesquisa de Nutrição, Desenvolvimento Infantil e Saúde de 2018. Foi utilizada a classificação proposta pelo sistema NOVA para categorizar os alimentos de acordo com sua natureza e os processos industriais a que são submetidos. A análise foi feita com base no modelo de perfil nutricional da OPAS, que possibilitou identificar os produtos com teor excessivo dos nutrientes supracitados. Resultados. Das crianças avaliadas, 50% consumiram três ou mais produtos com excesso de algum dos nutrientes vinculados às DCNT. Aproximadamente 9 em cada 10 crianças consomem produtos com excesso de pelo menos um dos nutrientes críticos estudados. Conclusão. As dietas que não contêm produtos ultraprocessados e processados com excesso de açúcares livres, gordura total, gordura saturada e sódio foram a melhor opção para crianças de 2 a 4 anos. A ingestão de produtos com excesso de nutrientes críticos segundo a OPAS (e cada grama adicional consumido desses produtos) piora significativamente a qualidade da dieta e impede o cumprimento das recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde.

Estimation of Intake of Critical Nutrients Associated with Noncommunicable Diseases According to the PAHO/WHO Criteria in the Diet of School-Age Children in Montevideo, Uruguay.

PURPOSE: To estimate the effect of the consumption of products with an excessive amount of critical nutrients associated with NCDs, according to the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model on the quality of the diet of Uruguayan school-age children (4 to 12 years). METHODS: A 24 h recall of food intake was conducted in a representative sample of 332 participants in the evaluation of the School Feeding Program in 2018 in public schools in Montevideo, Uruguay. Food and preparations were categorized according to the NOVA food classification, according to the nature, extent, and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Later, they were analyzed according to the Pan American Health Organization Nutrient Profile Model (PAHO NPM) to identify processed and ultra-processed products with an excessive content of critical nutrients. RESULTS: Only 0.52% of children consumed exclusively natural foods, or culinary ingredients. Twenty-five per cent of children consumed ≥4 products categorized with an excessive content of free sugars, total fat, or saturated fat according to the PAHO NPM; in the case of excessive sodium, this was 40%. In general, children who included products with excessive free sugars, sodium, or saturated fat in their diet exceeded the limits established by the World Health Organization, and, as a result, their diet is of poorer nutritional quality compared to children who did not consume such products. CONCLUSION: Diets free of ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium increased the chances of school-age children in Montevideo of meeting WHO nutrient intake recommendations. Meanwhile, intake of each additional gram of products with excessive critical nutrients according to PAHO NPM, significantly worsens diets, preventing children from meeting WHO recommendations.

Productos procesados y ultraprocesados y su relación con la calidad de la dieta en niños / Processed and ultra-processed products and their relationship to quality of diet in children / Produtos processados e ultraprocessados e sua relação com a qualidade da dieta em crianças

RESUMEN Objetivo. Estimar el efecto que representa en la calidad de la dieta de la primera infancia uruguaya —niños de 2 a 4 años— el consumo de productos que contienen cantidades excesivas de nutrientes críticos asociados a las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) (azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio), según el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS). Métodos. Se utilizó un recordatorio de ingesta de alimentos durante 24 horas en una muestra representativa de 401 participantes de la Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del año 2018. Se usó la clasificación de alimentos propuesta por el sistema NOVA para categorizarlos según su naturaleza y los procesos industriales a los que son sometidos. A partir de esto se lo analizó con base en el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la OPS, lo cual permitió identificar los productos con contenido excesivo de estos nutrientes. Resultados. El 50 % de los niños consumieron tres o más productos con exceso de alguno de los nutrientes vinculados con las ENT. Aproximadamente 9 de cada 10 niños consumen productos con exceso de al menos uno de los nutrientes críticos estudiados. Conclusión. Las dietas que no contienen productos ultraprocesados y procesados con exceso de azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio fueron la mejor opción para los niños de 2 a 4 años. La ingesta de productos con exceso de nutrientes críticos según la OPS (y cada gramo adicional consumido de tales productos) empeora la calidad de la dieta de manera significativa, e impide que se cumpla con las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud.

ABSTRACT Objective. Estimate the impact on quality in the early childhood diet (ages 2 to 4 years) in Uruguay, resulting from consumption of products containing excessive amounts of critical nutrients associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium), according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Nutrient Profile Model. Methods. A 24-hour dietary recall survey was used with a representative sample of 401 participants from the 2018 Nutrition, Child Development, and Health Survey. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize foods according to the nature and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Foods were then analyzed using the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model, enabling identification of products with excessive amounts of these nutrients. Results. Fifty percent of children consumed three or more products with an excess of some of the nutrients linked to NCDs. About 9 out of 10 children consume products with an excess of at least one of the critical nutrients studied. Conclusion. Diets that do not contain ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, or sodium were the best choice for children aged 2 to 4 years. Based on PAHO criteria, the consumption of products with excess critical nutrients (and of each additional gram of these products) significantly worsens diet quality, and impedes adherence to World Health Organization recommendations.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar o efeito do consumo de produtos que contêm quantidades excessivas de nutrientes críticos associados a doenças não transmissíveis (DCNTs) - açúcares livres, gorduras totais, gorduras saturadas e sódio -, de acordo com o modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS), na qualidade da dieta da primeira infância uruguaia (crianças de 2 a 4 anos). Métodos. Um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas foi aplicado a uma amostra representativa de 401 participantes da Pesquisa de Nutrição, Desenvolvimento Infantil e Saúde de 2018. Foi utilizada a classificação proposta pelo sistema NOVA para categorizar os alimentos de acordo com sua natureza e os processos industriais a que são submetidos. A análise foi feita com base no modelo de perfil nutricional da OPAS, que possibilitou identificar os produtos com teor excessivo dos nutrientes supracitados. Resultados. Das crianças avaliadas, 50% consumiram três ou mais produtos com excesso de algum dos nutrientes vinculados às DCNT. Aproximadamente 9 em cada 10 crianças consomem produtos com excesso de pelo menos um dos nutrientes críticos estudados. Conclusão. As dietas que não contêm produtos ultraprocessados e processados com excesso de açúcares livres, gordura total, gordura saturada e sódio foram a melhor opção para crianças de 2 a 4 anos. A ingestão de produtos com excesso de nutrientes críticos segundo a OPAS (e cada grama adicional consumido desses produtos) piora significativamente a qualidade da dieta e impede o cumprimento das recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde.

Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil.

Management of vector population is a commonly used method for mitigating transmission of mosquito-borne infections, but quantitative information on its practical public health impact is scarce. We study the effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in public spaces for preventing secondary dengue virus (DENV) cases in Porto Alegre, a non-endemic metropolitan area in Brazil. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on detailed entomological, epidemiological and population data, accounting for the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and humans in the study area and spatial transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated against the distribution of DENV cluster sizes previously estimated from the same geographical setting. We estimated a ULV-induced mortality of 40% for mosquitoes and found that the implemented control protocol avoided about 24% of symptomatic cases occurred in the area throughout the 2015-2016 epidemic season. Increasing the radius of treatment or the mortality of mosquitoes by treating gardens and/or indoor premises would greatly improve the result of control, but trade-offs with respect to increased efforts need to be carefully analyzed. We found a moderate effectiveness for ULV-spraying in public areas, mainly due to the limited ability of this strategy in effectively controlling the vector population. These results can be used to support the design of control strategies in low-incidence, non-endemic settings.

Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control.

BACKGROUND: Dengue viruses have spread rapidly across tropical regions of the world in recent decades. Today, dengue transmission is observed in the Americas, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, Africa and in non-endemic areas of the USA and Europe. Dengue is responsible for 16% of travel-related febrile illnesses. Although most prevalent in tropical areas, risk maps indicate that subtropical regions are suitable for transmission. Dengue-control programs in these regions should focus on minimizing virus importation, community engagement, improved vector surveillance and control. RESULTS: We developed a conceptual model for the probability of local introduction and propagation of dengue, comprising disease vulnerability and receptivity, in a temperate area, considering risk factors and social media indicators. Using a rich data set from a temperate area in the south of Brazil (where there is active surveillance of mosquitoes, viruses and human cases), we used a conceptual model as a framework to build two probabilistic models to estimate the probability of initiation and propagation of local dengue transmission. The final models estimated with good accuracy the probabilities of local transmission and propagation, with three and four weeks in advance, respectively. Vulnerability indicators (number of imported cases and dengue virus circulation in mosquitoes) and a receptivity indicator (vector abundance) could be optimally integrated with tweets and temperature data to estimate probability of early local dengue transmission. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated how vulnerability and receptivity indicators can be integrated into probabilistic models to estimate initiation and propagation of dengue transmission. The models successfully estimate disease risk in different scenarios and periods of the year. We propose a decision model with three different risk levels to assist in the planning of prevention and control measures in temperate regions at risk of dengue introduction.

Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction.

The ongoing geographical expansion of dengue is inducing an epidemiological transition in many previously transmission-free urban areas, which are now prone to annual epidemics. To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in these settings, we reconstruct transmission chains in Porto Alegre, Brazil, by applying a Bayesian inference model to geo-located dengue cases from 2013 to 2016. We found that transmission clusters expand by linearly increasing their diameter with time, at an average rate of about 600 m month-1. The majority (70.4%, 95% CI: 58.2-79.8%) of individual transmission events occur within a distance of 500 m. Cluster diameter, duration, and epidemic size are proportionally smaller when control interventions were more timely and intense. The results suggest that a large proportion of cases are transmitted via short-distance human movement (<1 km) and a limited contribution of long distance commuting within the city. These results can assist the design of control policies, including insecticide spraying and strategies for active case finding.

Programa de entrenamiento físico rehabilitador para pacientes con enfermedad arterial periférica y cardiopatía isquémica / Physical rehabilitation training program for peripheral artery disease in patients with ischemic heart disease

El índice tobillo-brazo ofrece un método sencillo para el diagnóstico de enfermedad arterial periférica, su uso permite identificar pacientes con claudicación intermitente de miembros inferiores que no completan satisfactoriamente una prueba ergométrica cardiovascular, lo que dificulta su inclusión en programas de rehabilitación.Diseñar un programa integral de rehabilitación para pacientes con enfermedad arterial periférica y cardiopatía isquémica.Se realizó un estudio observacional, descriptivo, prospectivo, longitudinal con 28 pacientes luego de un síndrome coronario agudo y diagnóstico de enfermedad arterial periférica. Se diseñó un programa de entrenamiento y tras seguimiento durante tres meses se compararon los resultados con los del inicio de la investigación.Predominó el sexo masculino (67,8 por ciento), 17 de ellos (60,7 por ciento) tuvieron un índice tobillo-brazo menor de 0,9 (p=0,002). El grupo de edad más afectado fue el de 55-59 años (35,7 por ciento). El diagnóstico principal fue el síndrome coronario agudo con elevación del segmento ST (42,85 por ciento). El factor de riego más frecuentemente encontrado fue la hipertrigliceridemia (82,1 por ciento). El hábito de fumar (75 por ciento; p=0,005) y la diabetes mellitus (28,6 por ciento; p=0,001) se relacionaron significativamente con un ITB≤0,9. A los tres meses de actividad física supervisada, el índice tobillo-brazo mejoró y aumentaron los tiempos de ejercicio (4:21 vs. a 10:9 minutos) y de aparición del dolor (2:31 vs. 7:6 minutos).La introducción de programas supervisados de entrenamiento para enfermedad arterial periférica mejora la capacidad funcional del paciente y su evaluación integral, lo que favorece su incorporación a programas de rehabilitación cardiovascular. Índice tobillo-brazo, Riesgo cardiovascular, Enfermedad arterial periférica, Entrenamiento físico, Rehabilitación cardiovascular(AU)

The ankle-brachial index provides a simple method to diagnose peripheral artery disease; its use allows identifying patients with intermittent claudication of the lower limbs who do not successfully complete a cardiovascular stress test, which hinders their inclusion in rehabilitation programs.To design a comprehensive rehabilitation program for patients with peripheral artery disease and ischemic heart disease.An observational, descriptive, prospective and longitudinal study was carried out with 28 patients after an acute coronary syndrome and peripheral artery disease. A training program was designed and after a three months follow up results were compared with those at the beginning of the investigation.Male predominance (67.8 percent), 17 of them (60.7 percent ) had an ankle-brachial index less than 0.9 (p=0.002). The most affected age group was 55-59 years (35.7 percent). The primary diagnosis was acute coronary syndrome with ST segment elevation (42.85 percent). The most common risk factor was hypertriglyceridemia (82.1 percent). Smoking (75 percent; p=0.005) and diabetes mellitus (28.6 percent; p=0.001) were significantly associated with a ITB≤0,9. After three months of supervised physical activity, the ankle-brachial index improved and increased time on exercise (4:21 vs. 10:9 minutes) and onset of pain (2:31 vs. 7:6 minutes).The introduction of supervised training programs for peripheral artery disease improves functional capacity of patients and their comprehensive evaluation, which favors joining cardiovascular rehabilitation programs.Ankle-brachial index, Cardiovascular risk, Peripheral artery disease, Physical training, Cardiac rehabilitation(AU)

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. METHODOLOGY / PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. CONCLUSIONS: Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are able to successfully nowcast, i.e. estimate Dengue in the present week, but also forecast, i.e. predict Dengue at until 8 weeks in the future, both at country and city level with high estimation capacity.

Meteorological variables and mosquito monitoring are good predictors for infestation trends of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti is an important vector for arboviroses and widely distributed throughout the world. Climatic factors can influence vector population dynamics and, consequently, disease transmission. The aim of this study was to characterize the temporal dynamics of an Ae. aegypti population and dengue cases and to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables and mosquito infestation. METHODS: We monitored and analyzed the adult female Ae. aegypti population, the dengue-fever vector, in Porto Alegre, a subtropical city in Brazil using the MI-Dengue system (intelligent dengue monitoring). This system uses sticky traps to monitor weekly infestation indices. We fitted generalized additive models (GAM) with climate variables including precipitation, temperature and humidity, and a GAM that additionally included mosquito abundance in the previous week as an explanatory variable. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of adult mosquito infestation on the probability of dengue occurrence. RESULTS: Adult mosquito abundance was strongly seasonal, with low infestation indices during the winters and high infestation during the summers. Weekly minimum temperatures above 18 °C were strongly associated with increased mosquito abundance, whereas humidity above 75% had a negative effect on abundance. The GAM model that included adult mosquito infestation in the previous week adjusted and predicted the observed data much better than the model which included only meteorological predictor variables. Dengue was also seasonal and 98% of all cases occurred at times of high adult Ae. aegypti infestation. The probability of dengue occurrence increased by 25%, when the mean number of adult mosquitos caught by monitoring traps increased by 0.1 mosquitoes per week. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that continuous monitoring of dengue vector population allows for more reliable predictions of infestation indices. The adult mosquito infestation index was a good predictor of dengue occurrence. Weekly adult dengue vector monitoring is a helpful dengue control strategy in subtropical Brazilian cities.

Programa de entrenamiento físico rehabilitador para pacientes conenfermedad arterial periférica y cardiopatía isquémica / Physical rehabilitation training program for peripheral artery disease in patients with ischemic heart disease

Introducción: El índice tobillo-brazo ofrece un método sencillo para el diagnóstico de enfermedad arterial periférica, su uso permite identificar pacientes con claudicación intermitente de miembros inferiores que no completan satisfactoriamenteuna prueba ergométrica cardiovascular, lo que dificulta su inclusión en programas de rehabilitación. Objetivo: Diseñar un programa integral de rehabilitación para pacientes con enfer-medad arterial periférica y cardiopatía isquémica. Método: Se realizó un estudio observacional, descriptivo, prospectivo, longitudinal con 28 pacientes luego de un síndrome coronario agudo y diagnóstico de en-fermedad arterial periférica. Se diseñó un programa de entrenamiento y tras seguimiento durante tres meses se compararon los resultados con los del inicio de la investigación. Resultados: Predominó el sexo masculino (67,8 por ciento), 17 de ellos (60,7 por ciento) tuvieron un índice tobillo-brazo menor de 0,9 (p=0,002). El grupo de edad más afectado fue el de 55-59 años (35,7 por ciento). El diagnóstico principal fue el síndrome coronario agudo con elevación del segmento ST (42,85 por ciento). El factor de riego más frecuentemente encontrado fue la hipertrigliceridemia (82,1 por ciento). El hábito de fumar (75 por ciento; p=0,005) y la diabetes mellitus (28,6 por ciento; p=0,001) se relacionaron significativamente con un ITB≤0,9. A los tres meses de actividad física supervisada, el índice tobillo-brazomejoró y aumentaron los tiempos de ejercicio (4:21 vs. a 10:9 minutos) y de aparición del dolor (2:31 vs. 7:6 minutos). Conclusiones: La introducción de programas supervisados de entrenamiento paraenfermedad arterial periférica mejora la capacidad funcional del paciente y su evaluación integral, lo que favorece su incorporación a programas de rehabilitación cardiovascular(AU)

Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities.

BACKGROUND: Vector control remains the primary defense against dengue fever. Its success relies on the assumption that vector density is related to disease transmission. Two operational issues include the amount by which mosquito density should be reduced to minimize transmission and the spatio-temporal allotment of resources needed to reduce mosquito density in a cost-effective manner. Recently, a novel technology, MI-Dengue, was implemented city-wide in several Brazilian cities to provide real-time mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control resources. We sought to understand the role of city-wide mosquito density data in predicting disease incidence in order to provide guidance for prioritization of vector control work. METHODS: We used hierarchical Bayesian regression modeling to examine the role of city-wide vector surveillance data in predicting human cases of dengue fever in space and time. We used four years of weekly surveillance data from Vitoria city, Brazil, to identify the best model structure. We tested effects of vector density, lagged case data and spatial connectivity. We investigated the generality of the best model using an additional year of data from Vitoria and two years of data from other Brazilian cities: Governador Valadares and Sete Lagoas. RESULTS: We found that city-wide, neighborhood-level averages of household vector density were a poor predictor of dengue-fever cases in the absence of accounting for interactions with human cases. Effects of city-wide spatial patterns were stronger than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood effects. Readily available proxies of spatial relationships between human cases, such as economic status, population density or between-neighborhood roadway distance, did not explain spatial patterns in cases better than unweighted global effects. CONCLUSIONS: For spatial prioritization of vector controls, city-wide spatial effects should be given more weight than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood connections, in order to minimize city-wide cases of dengue fever. More research is needed to determine which data could best inform city-wide connectivity. Once these data become available, MI-dengue may be even more effective if vector control is spatially prioritized by considering city-wide connectivity between cases together with information on the location of mosquito density and infected mosquitos.

Cost-effectiveness of novel system of mosquito surveillance and control, Brazil.

Of all countries in the Western Hemisphere, Brazil has the highest economic losses caused by dengue fever. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a novel system of vector surveillance and control, Monitoramento Inteligente da Dengue (Intelligent Dengue Monitoring System [MID]), which was implemented in 21 cities in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Traps for adult female mosquitoes were spaced at 300-m intervals throughout each city. In cities that used MID, vector control was conducted specifically at high-risk sites (indicated through daily updates by MID). In control cities, vector control proceeded according to guidelines of the Brazilian government. We estimated that MID prevented 27,191 cases of dengue fever and saved an average of $227 (median $58) per case prevented, which saved approximately $364,517 in direct costs (health care and vector control) and $7,138,940 in lost wages (societal effect) annually. MID was more effective in cities with stronger economies and more cost-effective in cities with higher levels of mosquito infestation.