Atlas On-line de Mortalidade

O Atlas de Mortalidade por Câncer tem como uma de suas principais finalidades auxiliar os profissionais de saúde pública na determinação de prioridades necessárias à prevenção e ao controle do câncer.

Identification of methodological issues regarding direct impact indicators of COVID-19: a rapid scoping review on morbidity, severity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: During the first epidemic wave, COVID-19 surveillance focused on quantifying the magnitude and the escalation of a growing global health crisis. The scientific community first assessed risk through basic indicators, such as the number of cases or rates of new cases and deaths, and later began using other direct impact indicators to conduct more detailed analyses. We aimed at synthesizing the scientific community's contribution to assessing the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population health through indicators reported in research papers. METHODS: We conducted a rapid scoping review to identify and describe health indicators included in articles published between January 2020 and June 2021, using one strategy to search PubMed, EMBASE and WHO COVID-19 databases. Sixteen experts from European public health institutions screened papers and retrieved indicator characteristics. We also asked in an online survey how the health indicators were added to and used in policy documents in Europe. RESULTS: After reviewing 3891 records, we selected a final sample of 67 articles and 233 indicators. We identified 52 (22.3%) morbidity indicators from 33 articles, 105 severity indicators (45.1%, 27 articles) and 68 mortality indicators (29.2%, 51). Respondents from 22 countries completed 31 questionnaires, and the majority reported morbidity indicators (29, 93.5%), followed by mortality indicators (26, 83.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The indicators collated here might be useful to assess the impact of future pandemics. Therefore, their measurement should be standardized to allow for comparisons between settings, countries and different populations.

Association between dietary patterns and the risk of all-cause mortality among old adults with obstructive sleep apnea.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) was associated with the increased cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. And anti-inflammatory dietary has potential to improve the prognosis of OSA. This study aimed to investigate the association of anti-inflammatory dietary patterns with all-cause mortality among individuals with OSA. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study involved 1522 older adults with OSA from 2005 to 2008 in the National Health and Nutrition Examinations Survey (NHANES). Mortality status was determined by routine follow-up through December 31, 2019, using the National Death Index. Anti-inflammatory dietary patterns included Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMED), Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015), and Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010). Weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to investigate the association between anti-inflammatory dietary pattern and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 131 months, 604 participants were recorded all-cause mortality. The mean age of OSA patients was 68.99 years old, of whom 859 were male (52.34%). Higher adherence of aMED (HR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.48 to 0.78) and HEI-2015 (HR = 0.75, 95%CI: 0.60 to 0.95) were associated with lower all-cause mortality risk in the elderly with OSA. Conversely, no association was found between AHEI-2010 dietary pattern and all-cause mortality in individuals with OSA. In the component analysis of aMED, it was found that a higher intake of vegetables and olive oil potentially contributes to the reduction all-cause mortality risk in the elderly with OSA (HR = 0.60, 95%CI: 0.48 to 0.76; HR = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.63 to 0.71). CONCLUSION: Higher adherence to the aMED and the HEI-2015 was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality in OSA. Future interventions in the elderly with OSA should considering adopting anti-inflammatory dietary patterns.

Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035.

OBJECTIVE: To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035. METHODS: Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex. RESULTS: More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5-2), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the male population aged 20-44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France's female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035. CONCLUSION: In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth.

Patterns and trends in melanoma mortality in the United States, 1999-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Melanoma, a deadly form of skin cancer, has witnessed a notable increase in incidence over the past decades. Despite advancements in treatment, it remains a significant cause of cancer mortality. Understanding demographic trends and variations in melanoma mortality is crucial for addressing disparities and implementing effective interventions. METHODS: Using the Centers for Disease Control Wide Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database, we analyzed melanoma mortality data in the United States from 1999 to 2020. Data were stratified by demographic and regional variables, and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated. Descriptive analysis was performed and Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify temporal trends. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 184,416 melanoma-related deaths in the United States Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate declined from 2.7 to 2.0 per 100,000 people at a rate of -1.3% annually, with significant variations across demographic groups and regions. Men, non-Hispanic White individuals, and those aged > 65 experienced higher mortality rates. Non-Hispanic White individuals noted the steepest decrease in AAMR after 2013 at a rate of -6.1% annually. Disparities were seen by geographic density, with rural populations exhibiting higher mortality compared to their urban and suburban counterparts. CONCLUSION: The study highlights a significant reduction in melanoma mortality in the U.S. since 2013, potentially attributed to advancements in diagnostic techniques such as dermoscopy and the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors. Disparities persist, particularly among rural populations. Targeted interventions focusing on increased screening and education are warranted to further mitigate melanoma mortality and address demographic disparities.

A study on the monitoring of heatwaves and bivariate frequency analysis based on mortality risk assessment in Wuhan, China.

The increasingly frequent occurrence of urban heatwaves has become a significant threat to human health. To quantitatively analyze changes in heatwave characteristics and to investigate the return periods of future heatwaves in Wuhan City, China, this study extracted 9 heatwave definitions and divided them into 3 mortality risk levels to identify and analyze historical observations and future projections of heatwaves. The copula functions were employed to derive the joint distribution of heatwave severity and duration and to analyze the co-occurrence return periods. The results demonstrate the following. (1) As the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions increases, the severity of heatwaves intensifies, and the occurrence of heatwaves increases significantly; moreover, a longer duration of heatwaves correlated with higher risk levels in each emission scenario. (2) Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions result in significantly shorter heatwave co-occurrence return periods at each level of risk. (3) In the 3 risk levels under each emission scenario, the co-occurrence return periods for heatwaves become longer as heatwave severity intensifies and duration increases. Under the influence of climate change, regional-specific early warning systems for heatwaves are necessary and crucial for policymakers to reduce heat-related mortality risks in the population, especially among vulnerable groups.

Evaluation of mortality among Marines, Navy personnel, and civilian workers exposed to contaminated drinking water at USMC base Camp Lejeune: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water at U.S. Marine Corps Base (MCB) Camp Lejeune, North Carolina was contaminated with trichloroethylene and other industrial solvents from 1953 to 1985. METHODS: A cohort mortality study was conducted of Marines/Navy personnel who, between 1975 and 1985, began service and were stationed at Camp Lejeune (N = 159,128) or MCB Camp Pendleton, California (N = 168,406), and civilian workers employed at Camp Lejeune (N = 7,332) or Camp Pendleton (N = 6,677) between October 1972 and December 1985. Camp Pendleton's drinking water was not contaminated with industrial solvents. Mortality follow-up was between 1979 and 2018. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) comparing mortality rates between Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton cohorts. The ratio of upper and lower 95% confidence interval (CI) limits, or CIR, was used to evaluate the precision of aHRs. The study focused on underlying causes of death with aHRs ≥ 1.20 and CIRs ≤ 3. RESULTS: Deaths among Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton Marines/Navy personnel totaled 19,250 and 21,134, respectively. Deaths among Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton civilian workers totaled 3,055 and 3,280, respectively. Compared to Camp Pendleton Marines/Navy personnel, Camp Lejeune had aHRs ≥ 1.20 with CIRs ≤ 3 for cancers of the kidney (aHR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.54), esophagus (aHR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.54) and female breast (aHR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.98). Causes of death with aHRs ≥ 1.20 and CIR > 3, included Parkinson disease, myelodysplastic syndrome and cancers of the testes, cervix and ovary. Compared to Camp Pendleton civilian workers, Camp Lejeune had aHRs ≥ 1.20 with CIRs ≤ 3 for chronic kidney disease (aHR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.13, 3.11) and Parkinson disease (aHR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.72, 2.04). Female breast cancer had an aHR of 1.19 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.88), and aHRs ≥ 1.20 with CIRs > 3 were observed for kidney and pharyngeal cancers, melanoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, and chronic myeloid leukemia. Quantitative bias analyses indicated that confounding due to smoking and alcohol consumption would not appreciably impact the findings. CONCLUSION: Marines/Navy personnel and civilian workers likely exposed to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune had increased hazard ratios for several causes of death compared to Camp Pendleton.

Trends in genitourinary cancer mortality in the United States: analysis of the CDC-WONDER database 1999-2020.

Introduction: Sociodemographic disparities in genitourinary cancer-related mortality have been insufficiently studied, particularly across multiple cancer types. This study aimed to investigate gender, racial, and geographic disparities in mortality rates for the most common genitourinary cancers in the United States. Methods: Mortality data for prostate, bladder, kidney, and testicular cancers were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER database between 1999 and 2020. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were analyzed by year, gender, race, urban-rural status, and geographic region using a significance level of p < 0.05. Results: Overall, AAMRs for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer declined significantly, while testicular cancer-related mortality remained stable. Bladder and kidney cancer AAMRs were 3-4 times higher in males than females. Prostate cancer mortality was highest in black individuals/African Americans and began increasing after 2015. Bladder cancer mortality decreased significantly in White individuals, Black individuals, African Americans, and Asians/Pacific Islanders but remained stable in American Indian/Alaska Natives. Kidney cancer-related mortality was highest in White individuals but declined significantly in other races. Testicular cancer mortality increased significantly in White individuals but remained stable in Black individuals and African Americans. Genitourinary cancer mortality decreased in metropolitan areas but either increased (bladder and testicular cancer) or remained stable (kidney cancer) in non-metropolitan areas. Prostate and kidney cancer mortality was highest in the Midwest, bladder cancer in the South, and testicular cancer in the West. Discussion: Significant sociodemographic disparities exist in the mortality trends of genitourinary cancers in the United States. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions and further research to address these disparities and improve outcomes for all populations affected by genitourinary cancers.

Ambient air pollution and daily mortality in ten cities of India: a causal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The evidence for acute effects of air pollution on mortality in India is scarce, despite the extreme concentrations of air pollution observed. This is the first multi-city study in India that examines the association between short-term exposure to PM2·5 and daily mortality using causal methods that highlight the importance of locally generated air pollution. METHODS: We applied a time-series analysis to ten cities in India between 2008 and 2019. We assessed city-wide daily PM2·5 concentrations using a novel hybrid nationwide spatiotemporal model and estimated city-specific effects of PM2·5 using a generalised additive Poisson regression model. City-specific results were then meta-analysed. We applied an instrumental variable causal approach (including planetary boundary layer height, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure) to evaluate the causal effect of locally generated air pollution on mortality. We obtained an integrated exposure-response curve through a multivariate meta-regression of the city-specific exposure-response curve and calculated the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollution concentrations exceeding the current WHO 24 h ambient PM2·5 guideline of 15 µg/m3. To explore the shape of the exposure-response curve at lower exposures, we further limited the analyses to days with concentrations lower than the current Indian standard (60 µg/m3). FINDINGS: We observed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM2·5 was associated with 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·2) higher daily mortality. In our causal instrumental variable analyses representing the effect of locally generated air pollution, we observed a stronger association with daily mortality (3·6% [2·1-5·0]) than our overall estimate. Our integrated exposure-response curve suggested steeper slopes at lower levels of exposure and an attenuation of the slope at high exposure levels. We observed two times higher risk of death per 10 µg/m3 increase when restricting our analyses to observations below the Indian air quality standard (2·7% [1·7-3·6]). Using the integrated exposure-response curve, we observed that 7·2% (4·2%-10·1%) of all daily deaths were attributed to PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Short-term PM2·5 exposure was associated with a high risk of death in India, even at concentrations well below the current Indian PM2·5 standard. These associations were stronger for locally generated air pollutants quantified through causal modelling methods than conventional time-series analysis, further supporting a plausible causal link. FUNDING: Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development.

The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach.

BACKGROUND: The world is becoming increasingly urbanised. As cities around the world continue to grow, it is important for urban planners and policy makers to understand how different urban configuration patterns affect the environment and human health. However, previous studies have provided mixed findings. We aimed to identify European urban configuration types, on the basis of the local climate zones categories and street design variables from Open Street Map, and evaluate their association with motorised traffic flows, surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensities, tropospheric NO2, CO2 per person emissions, and age-standardised mortality. METHODS: We considered 946 European cities from 31 countries for the analysis defined in the 2018 Urban Audit database, of which 919 European cities were analysed. Data were collected at a 250 m × 250 m grid cell resolution. We divided all cities into five concentric rings based on the Burgess concentric urban planning model and calculated the mean values of all variables for each ring. First, to identify distinct urban configuration types, we applied the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction method, followed by the k-means clustering algorithm. Next, statistical differences in exposures (including SUHI) and mortality between the resulting urban configuration types were evaluated using a Kruskal-Wallis test followed by a post-hoc Dunn's test. FINDINGS: We identified four distinct urban configuration types characterising European cities: compact high density (n=246), open low-rise medium density (n=245), open low-rise low density (n=261), and green low density (n=167). Compact high density cities were a small size, had high population densities, and a low availability of natural areas. In contrast, green low density cities were a large size, had low population densities, and a high availability of natural areas and cycleways. The open low-rise medium and low density cities were a small to medium size with medium to low population densities and low to moderate availability of green areas. Motorised traffic flows and NO2 exposure were significantly higher in compact high density and open low-rise medium density cities when compared with green low density and open low-rise low density cities. Additionally, green low density cities had a significantly lower SUHI effect compared with all other urban configuration types. Per person CO2 emissions were significantly lower in compact high density cities compared with green low density cities. Lastly, green low density cities had significantly lower mortality rates when compared with all other urban configuration types. INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that, although the compact city model is more sustainable, European compact cities still face challenges related to poor environmental quality and health. Our results have notable implications for urban and transport planning policies in Europe and contribute to the ongoing discussion on which city models can bring the greatest benefits for the environment, climate, and health. FUNDING: Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, State Research Agency, Generalitat de Catalunya, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en red Epidemiología y Salud Pública, and Urban Burden of Disease Estimation for Policy Making as a Horizon Europe project.

Impact of global smoking prevalence on mortality: a study across income groups.

BACKGROUND: Smoking significantly contributes to the mortality rates worldwide, particularly in non-communicable and preventable diseases such as cardiovascular ailments, respiratory conditions, stroke, and lung cancer. This study aims to analyse the impact of smoking on global deaths, and its association with mortality across the main income groups. METHODS: The comprehensive analysis spans 199 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. The study categorises countries into four income groups: high income, upper middle income, lower middle income, and low income. RESULTS: The findings underscore the profound impact of global tobacco smoking on mortality. Notably, cardiovascular disease mortality is notably affected in both upper-middle-income and high-income groups. Chronic respiratory disease mortality rates show a significant impact across all income groups. Moreover, stroke-related mortality is observed in the lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income groups. These results highlight the pervasive influence of smoking prevalence on global mortality, affecting individuals across various socioeconomic levels. CONCLUSION: The study underscores the critical implications of smoking on mortality rates, particularly in high-income countries. It emphasises the urgency of targeted interventions in these regions to address the specific challenges posed by tobacco smoking on public health. Policy recommendations include implementing prohibitive measures extending to indoor public areas such as workplaces and public transportation services. Furthermore, allocating funds for research on tobacco and health, is imperative to ensure policymakers are consistently informed about emerging facts and trends in this complex domain.

Association of oral health with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in older Chinese adults: A 14-year follow-up of the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort study.

Background: Poor oral hygiene is associated with overall wellness, but evidence regarding associations of oral health with all-cause mortality remain inconclusive. We aimed to examine the associations of oral health with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and older Chinese adults. Methods: 28 006 participants were recruited from 2003-2008 and followed up until 2021. Oral health was assessed by face-to-face interview and causes of death was identified via record linkage. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment of multiple potential confounders. Results: During an average of 14.3 years of follow-up, we found that a lower frequency of toothbrushing was associated with higher risks of all-cause mortality with a dose-response pattern (P for trend <0.001). Specially, the adjusted HR (95% CI) (vs. ≥ twice/d) was 1.16 (1.10, 1.22) (P < 0.001) for brushing once/d and 1.27 (1.00, 1.61) (P = 0.048) for < once/d. Similar associations were also found for cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, and respiratory disease mortality, but not for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cancer mortality. A greater number of missing teeth was also associated with higher risks of all-cause, CVD, stroke, and respiratory disease mortality with a dose-response pattern (all P for trend <0.05). The association of missing teeth with all-cause mortality was stronger in lower-educated participants. Conclusions: Both less frequent toothbrushing and a greater number of missing teeth were associated with higher risks of all-cause, CVD, stroke, and respiratory disease mortality, showing dose-response patterns, but not with IHD and cancer mortality. Moreover, the dose-response association of missing teeth with all-cause mortality was stronger in lower-educated participants.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Breast Cancer Mortality in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019: A Temporal Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data.

Background: Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in women in Türkiye. Aims: Explore the trends in female breast cancer mortality rates and the associated modifiable factors in Türkiye between 1990 and 2019. Study Design: Epidemiological descriptive analysis. Methods: The database of the Global Burden of Disease study was used to obtain data regarding breast cancer-related mortality and modifiable (behavioral and metabolic) risk factors among women in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) for female breast cancer mortality rates was computed using the Joinpoint regression method. Results: From 1990 to 2009, the breast cancer mortality rates in Türkiye tended to increase [from 12.26/105 in 1990 to 12.65/105 in 2019; AAPC=0.1 "95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1-0.1"]. In terms of breast cancer mortality attributed to modifiable factors, a 3% increase was observed from 1990 (20.4%) to 2019 (23.1%), the highest contributor being high body mass index (3.19% in 1990 to 5.87% in 2019; AAPC=1.5; 95% CI: 1.3-1.5), followed by high fasting plasma glucose (5.01% in 1990 to 7.72% in 2019; AAPC=1.4; 95% CI: 1.3-1.5). Conclusion: The proportion of breast cancer-related deaths attributed to metabolic factors has been increasing in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019. Therefore, health policies aimed at managing metabolic factors in women are warranted to reduce breast cancer-related mortality in Türkiye.

Random survival forest for predicting the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on all-cause mortality.

Understanding the combined effects of risk factors on all-cause mortality is crucial for implementing effective risk stratification and designing targeted interventions, but such combined effects are understudied. We aim to use survival-tree based machine learning models as more flexible nonparametric techniques to examine the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on mortality. More specifically, we (1) study the combined effects between multiple physiological factors and all-cause mortality, (2) identify the five most influential factors and visualize their combined influence on all-cause mortality, and (3) compare the mortality cut-offs with the current clinical thresholds. Data from the 1999-2014 NHANES Survey were linked to National Death Index data with follow-up through 2015 for 17,790 adults. We observed that the five most influential factors affecting mortality are the tobacco smoking biomarker cotinine, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), plasma glucose, sex, and white blood cell count. Specifically, high mortality risk is associated with being male, active smoking, low GFR, elevated plasma glucose levels, and high white blood cell count. The identified mortality-based cutoffs for these factors are mostly consistent with relevant studies and current clinical thresholds. This approach enabled us to identify important cutoffs and provide enhanced risk prediction as an important basis to inform clinical practice and develop new strategies for precision medicine.

Avoidable Mortality in Korea 1997-2001: Temporal Trend and its Contribution to All-cause Mortality.

Objective: This study analyzed the mortality trends from avoidable causes in Korea from 1997 to 2021, to estimate its contribution to the overall mortality in different subgroups, including. Gender, age, and cause of disease. Methods: The all-cause and avoidable mortality were presented as a time series plot and average annual percent change. Trend of avoidable mortality was also analyzed by subgroups, disease causes and the percentage attributed to each causes. Results: The decline in avoidable mortality accounted for 82.6% of all-cause mortality reduction. Preventable mortality showed a more pronounced decline than treatable mortality, explaining 72.3% of the avoidable mortality reduction. In 1997-2001, avoidable death occurred in 72.2% (537,024 cases) of all-cause deaths, which declined to 60.0% (342,979 cases) in 2017-2021. The contribution of avoidable mortality in the decline of all-cause morality was greater in males (83.6%) than in females (79.3%). Conclusion: The decline in avoidable mortality and its contribution to the all-cause mortality reduction implies general improvement of the population health in Korea. Nevertheless, the heterogenous trend within different subgroups warrants more equitable design and implementation of health services and policies.

Estimating lead-attributable mortality burden by socioeconomic status in the USA.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate population-level and state-level lead-attributable mortality burdens stratified by socioeconomic status (SES) class in the USA. METHODS: Based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we constructed individual-level SES scores from income, employment, education and insurance data. We assessed the association between the blood lead levels (BLL) and all-cause mortality by Cox regression in the NHANES cohort (n = 31 311, 4467 deaths). With estimated hazard ratios (HR) and prevalences of medium (2-5 µg/dL) and high (≥ 5 µg/dL) BLL, we computed SES-stratified population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of all-cause mortality from lead exposure across 1999-2019. We additionally conducted a systematic review to estimate the lead-attributable mortality burden at state-level. RESULTS: The HR for every 2-fold increase in the BLL decreased from 1.23 (1.10-1.38) for the lowest SES class to 1.05 (0.90-1.23) for the highest SES class. Across all SES quintiles, medium BLL exhibited a greater mortality burden. Individuals with lower SES had higher lead-attributable burdens, and such disparities haver persisted over the past two decades. In 2017-19, annually 67 000 (32 000-112 000) deaths in the USA were attributable to lead exposure, with 18 000 (2000-41 000) of these deaths occurring in the lowest SES class. Substantial disparities in the state-level mortality burden attributable to lead exposure were also highlighted. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggested that disparities in lead-attributable mortality burden persisted within US adults, due to heterogeneities in the effect sizes of lead exposure as well as in the BLL among different SES classes.

Unfulfilled home health referrals lead to higher mortality among Medicare Advantage members.

OBJECTIVES: Medicare Advantage (MA) members referred to home health after inpatient hospitalization may or may not receive these services for a variety of member- and health care system-related reasons. Our objective was to compare outcomes among MA members referred to home health following hospitalization who receive home health services vs those who do not. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective quasi-experimental study. METHODS: Following acute hospitalization, members with discharge orders to receive home health services between January 2021 and October 2022 were identified in a medical claims database consisting of MA beneficiaries. Members who received services within 30 days of discharge were balanced using inverse propensity score weighting on member- and admission-related covariates with a comparator group of members who did not receive services. Primary outcomes included mortality and readmissions in the ensuing 30, 90, and 180 days. Secondary outcomes included emergency department visits, primary care visits, and per-member per-month costs. RESULTS: The home health-treated group consisted of 2115 discharges, and the untreated group consisted of 761 discharges. The treated group experienced lower mortality at 30 days (2% vs 3%, respectively; OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.36-0.92), 90 days (8% vs 10%; OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-0.98), and 180 days (11% vs 14%; OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.65-0.99). The treated group also experienced higher readmissions at 30 days (13% vs 10%; OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.01-1.60), 90 days (24% vs 16%; OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.39-2.05), and 180 days (33% vs 24%; OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.29-1.79). CONCLUSION: MA members referred to home health after acute hospitalization who did not receive home health services had higher mortality.

Inverse probability weighting for self-selection bias correction in the investigation of social inequality in mortality.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evaluation of inverse probability weighting (IPW) for self-selection bias correction is inaccessible without the full source population. We aimed to: (i) investigate how self-selection biases frequency and association measures and (ii) assess self-selection bias correction using IPW in a cohort with register linkage. METHODS: The source population included 17 936 individuals invited to the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank during 2009-11 (ages 49-63 years). Participants counted 7185 (40.1%). Register data were obtained for every invited person from 7 years before invitation to the end of 2020. The association between education and mortality was estimated using Cox regression models among participants, IPW participants and the source population. RESULTS: Participants had higher socioeconomic position and fewer hospital contacts before baseline than the source population. Frequency measures of participants approached those of the source population after IPW. Compared with primary/lower secondary education, upper secondary, short tertiary, bachelor and master/doctoral were associated with reduced risk of death among participants (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]: 0.60 [0.46; 0.77], 0.68 [0.42; 1.11], 0.37 [0.25; 0.54], 0.28 [0.18; 0.46], respectively). IPW changed the estimates marginally (0.59 [0.45; 0.77], 0.57 [0.34; 0.93], 0.34 [0.23; 0.50], 0.24 [0.15; 0.39]) but not only towards those of the source population (0.57 [0.51; 0.64], 0.43 [0.32; 0.60], 0.38 [0.32; 0.47], 0.22 [0.16; 0.29]). CONCLUSIONS: Frequency measures of study participants may not reflect the source population in the presence of self-selection, but the impact on association measures can be limited. IPW may be useful for (self-)selection bias correction, but the returned results can still reflect residual or other biases and random errors.

Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality Burden and Spatial Heterogeneity in 16 Prefecture-Level Cities of a Low-Latitude Plateau Area in Yunnan Province: Time-Series Study.

Background: The relation between climate change and human health has become one of the major worldwide public health issues. However, the evidence for low-latitude plateau regions is limited, where the climate is unique and diverse with a complex geography and topography. objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of ambient temperature on the mortality burden of nonaccidental deaths in Yunnan Province and to further explore its spatial heterogeneity among different regions. Methods: We collected mortality and meteorological data from all 129 counties in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020, and 16 prefecture-level cities were analyzed as units. A distributed lagged nonlinear model was used to estimate the effect of temperature exposure on years of life lost (YLL) for nonaccidental deaths in each prefecture-level city. The attributable fraction of YLL due to ambient temperature was calculated. A multivariate meta-analysis was used to obtain an overall aggregated estimate of effects, and spatial heterogeneity among 16 prefecture-level cities was evaluated by adjusting the city-specific geographical characteristics, demographic characteristics, economic factors, and health resources factors. Results: The temperature-YLL association was nonlinear and followed slide-shaped curves in all regions. The cumulative cold and heat effect estimates along lag 0-21 days on YLL for nonaccidental deaths were 403.16 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] 148.14-615.18) and 247.83 (95% eCI 45.73-418.85), respectively. The attributable fraction for nonaccidental mortality due to daily mean temperature was 7.45% (95% eCI 3.73%-10.38%). Cold temperature was responsible for most of the mortality burden (4.61%, 95% eCI 1.70-7.04), whereas the burden due to heat was 2.84% (95% eCI 0.58-4.83). The vulnerable subpopulations include male individuals, people aged <75 years, people with education below junior college level, farmers, nonmarried individuals, and ethnic minorities. In the cause-specific subgroup analysis, the total attributable fraction (%) for mean temperature was 13.97% (95% eCI 6.70-14.02) for heart disease, 11.12% (95% eCI 2.52-16.82) for respiratory disease, 10.85% (95% eCI 6.70-14.02) for cardiovascular disease, and 10.13% (95% eCI 6.03-13.18) for stroke. The attributable risk of cold effect for cardiovascular disease was higher than that for respiratory disease cause of death (9.71% vs 4.54%). Furthermore, we found 48.2% heterogeneity in the effect of mean temperature on YLL after considering the inherent characteristics of the 16 prefecture-level cities, with urbanization rate accounting for the highest proportion of heterogeneity (15.7%) among urban characteristics. Conclusions: This study suggests that the cold effect dominated the total effect of temperature on mortality burden in Yunnan Province, and its effect was heterogeneous among different regions, which provides a basis for spatial planning and health policy formulation for disease prevention.