Population dynamics of the Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, during rapid range expansion in New York State.

Recent changes in climate and human land-use have resulted in alterations of the geographic range of many species, including human pathogens. Geographic range expansion and population growth of human pathogens increase human disease risk. Relatively little empirical work has investigated the impact of range changes on within-population variability, a contributor to both colonization success and adaptive potential, during the precise time in which populations are colonized. This is likely due to the difficulties of collecting appropriate natural samples during the dynamic phase of migration and colonization. We systematically collected blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) across New York State (NY), USA, between 2006 and 2019, a time period coinciding with a rapid range expansion of ticks and their associated pathogens including Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease. These samples provide a unique opportunity to investigate the population dynamics of human pathogens as they expand into novel territory. We observed that founder effects were short-lived, as gene flow from long-established populations brought almost all B. burgdorferi lineages to newly colonized populations within just a few years of colonization. By 7 years post-colonization, B. burgdorferi lineage frequency distributions were indistinguishable from long-established sites, indicating that local B. burgdorferi populations experience similar selective pressures despite geographic separation. The B. burgdorferi lineage dynamics elucidate the processes underlying the range expansion and demonstrate that migration into, and selection within, newly colonized sites operate on different time scales.

Assessing the impact of areal unit selection and the modifiable areal unit problem on associative statistics between cases of tick-borne disease and entomological indices.

The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a cause of statistical and visual bias when aggregating data according to spatial units, particularly when spatial units may be changed arbitrarily. The MAUP is a concern in vector-borne disease research when entomological metrics gathered from point-level sampling data are related to epidemiological data aggregated to administrative units like counties or ZIP Codes. Here, we assess the statistical impact of the MAUP when calculating correlations between randomly aggregated cases of anaplasmosis in New York State during 2017 and a geostatistical layer of an entomological risk index for Anaplasma phagocytophilum in blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) collected during the fall of 2017. Correlations were also calculated using various administrative boundaries for comparison. We also demonstrate the impact of the MAUP on data visualization using choropleth maps and offer pycnophylactic interpolation as an alternative. Polygon simulations indicate that increasing the number of polygons decreases correlation coefficients and their variability. Correlation coefficients calculated using ZIP Code tabulation area and Census tract polygons were beyond 4 standard deviations from the mean of the simulated correlation coefficients. These results indicate that using smaller polygons may not best incorporate the geographical context of the tick-borne disease system, despite the tendency of researchers to strive for more granular spatial data and associations.

Surveillance and Genetic Analysis of Jamestown Canyon Virus in New York State: 2001-2022.

Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) (Peribunyavirdae; Orthobunyavirus) is a mosquito-borne pathogen endemic to North America. The genome is composed of three segmented negative-sense RNA fragments designated as small, medium, and large. Jamestown Canyon virus is an emerging threat to public health, and infection in humans can cause severe neurological diseases, including encephalitis and meningitis. We report JCV mosquito surveillance data from 2001 to 2022 in New York state. Jamestown Canyon virus was detected in 12 mosquito species, with the greatest prevalence in Aedes canadensis and Anopheles punctipennis. Detection fluctuated annually, with the highest levels recorded in 2020. Overall, JCV infection rates were significantly greater from 2012 to 2022 compared with 2001 to 2011. Full-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were also performed with representative JCV isolates collected from 2003 to 2022. These data demonstrated the circulation of numerous genetic variants, broad geographic separation, and the first identification of lineage B JCV in New York state in 2022.

Dynamics of eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, similar to previous years, cases were driven by multiple independent but short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019, although the ecology of EEEV is complex and further data is required to explore these in more detail. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

Spatiotemporal distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfection with other tick-borne pathogens in host-seeking Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) from New York State, USA.

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) were collected from 432 locations across New York State (NYS) during the summer and autumn of 2015-2020 to determine the prevalence and geographic distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfections with other tick-borne pathogens. A total of 48,386 I. scapularis were individually analyzed using a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assay to simultaneously detect the presence of Bo. miyamotoi, Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae), and Babesia microti (Piroplasmida: Babesiidae). Overall prevalence of Bo. miyamotoi in host-seeking nymphs and adults varied geographically and temporally at the regional level. The rate of polymicrobial infection in Bo. miyamotoi-infected ticks varied by developmental stage, with certain co-infections occurring more frequently than expected by chance. Entomological risk of exposure to Bo. miyamotoi-infected nymphal and adult ticks (entomological risk index [ERI]) across NYS regions in relation to human cases of Bo. miyamotoi disease identified during the study period demonstrated spatial and temporal variation. The relationship between select environmental factors and Bo. miyamotoi ERI was explored using generalized linear mixed effects models, resulting in different factors significantly impacting ERI for nymphs and adult ticks. These results can inform estimates of Bo. miyamotoi disease risk and further our understanding of Bo. miyamotoi ecological dynamics in regions where this pathogen is known to occur.

Dynamics of Eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans, and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, like previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

Associations of Anaplasma phagocytophilum Bacteria Variants in Ixodes scapularis Ticks and Humans, New York, USA.

Anaplasmosis, caused by the tickborne bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, is an emerging public health threat in the United States. In the northeastern United States, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) transmits the human pathogenic genetic variant of A. phagocytophilum (Ap-ha) and a nonpathogenic variant (Ap-V1). New York has recently experienced a rapid and geographically focused increase in cases of anaplasmosis. We analyzed A. phagocytophilum-infected I. scapularis ticks collected across New York during 2008-2020 to differentiate between variants and calculate an entomological risk index (ERI) for each. Ap-ha ERI varied between regions and increased in all regions during the final years of the study. Space-time scan analyses detected expanding clusters of Ap-ha located within documented anaplasmosis hotspots. Ap-ha ERI was more positively correlated with anaplasmosis incidence than non-genotyped A. phagocytophilum ERI. Our findings help elucidate the relationship between the spatial ecology of A. phagocytophilum variants and anaplasmosis.

Bourbon Virus Transmission, New York, USA.

In July 2019, Bourbon virus RNA was detected in an Amblyomma americanum tick removed from a resident of Long Island, New York, USA. Tick infection and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serosurvey results demonstrate active transmission in New York, especially Suffolk County, emphasizing a need for surveillance anywhere A. americanum ticks are reported.

Public Health Response to a Case of Paralytic Poliomyelitis in an Unvaccinated Person and Detection of Poliovirus in Wastewater - New York, June-August 2022.

On July 18, 2022, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) notified CDC of detection of poliovirus type 2 in stool specimens from an unvaccinated immunocompetent young adult from Rockland County, New York, who was experiencing acute flaccid weakness. The patient initially experienced fever, neck stiffness, gastrointestinal symptoms, and limb weakness. The patient was hospitalized with possible acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2) was detected in stool specimens obtained on days 11 and 12 after initial symptom onset. To date, related Sabin-like type 2 polioviruses have been detected in wastewater* in the patient's county of residence and in neighboring Orange County up to 25 days before (from samples originally collected for SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring) and 41 days after the patient's symptom onset. The last U.S. case of polio caused by wild poliovirus occurred in 1979, and the World Health Organization Region of the Americas was declared polio-free in 1994. This report describes the second identification of community transmission of poliovirus in the United States since 1979; the previous instance, in 2005, was a type 1 VDPV (1). The occurrence of this case, combined with the identification of poliovirus in wastewater in neighboring Orange County, underscores the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent paralytic polio in persons of all ages.

Phylogeographic dynamics of the arthropod vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis).

BACKGROUND: The emergence of vector-borne pathogens in novel geographic areas is regulated by the migration of their arthropod vectors. Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) and the pathogens they vector, including the causative agents of Lyme disease, babesiosis and anaplasmosis, continue to grow in their population sizes and to expand in geographic range. Migration of this vector over the previous decades has been implicated as the cause of the re-emergence of the most prevalent infectious diseases in North America. METHODS: We systematically collected ticks from across New York State (hereafter referred to as New York) from 2004 to 2017 as part of routine tick-borne pathogen surveillance in the state. This time frame corresponds with an increase in range and incidence of tick-borne diseases within New York. We randomly sampled ticks from this collection to explore the evolutionary history and population dynamics of I. scapularis. We sequenced the mitochondrial genomes of each tick to characterize their current and historical spatial genetic structure and population growth using phylogeographic methods. RESULTS: We sequenced whole mitochondrial genomes from 277 ticks collected across New York between 2004 and 2017. We found evidence of population genetic structure at a broad geographic scale due to differences in the relative abundance, but not the composition, of haplotypes among sampled ticks. Ticks were often most closely related to ticks from the same and nearby collection sites. The data indicate that both short- and long-range migration events shape the population dynamics of blacklegged ticks in New York. CONCLUSIONS: We detailed the population dynamics of the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) in New York during a time frame in which tick-borne diseases were increasing in range and incidence. Migration of ticks occurred at both coarse and fine scales in the recent past despite evidence of limits to gene flow. Past and current tick population dynamics have implications for further range expansion as habitat suitability for ticks changes due to global climate change. Analyses of mitochondrial genome sequencing data will expound upon previously identified drivers of tick presence and abundance as well as identify additional drivers. These data provide a foundation on which to generate testable hypotheses on the drivers of tick population dynamics occurring at finer scales.

Economic Burden of Reported Lyme Disease in High-Incidence Areas, United States, 2014-2016.

Approximately 476,000 cases of Lyme disease are diagnosed in the United States annually, yet comprehensive economic evaluations are lacking. In a prospective study among reported cases in Lyme disease-endemic states, we estimated the total patient cost and total societal cost of the disease. In addition, we evaluated disease and demographic factors associated with total societal cost. Participants had a mean patient cost of ≈$1,200 (median $240) and a mean societal cost of ≈$2,000 (median $700). Patients with confirmed disseminated disease or probable disease had approximately double the societal cost of those with confirmed localized disease. The annual, aggregate cost of diagnosed Lyme disease could be $345-968 million (2016 US dollars) to US society. Our findings emphasize the importance of effective prevention and early diagnosis to reduce illness and associated costs. These results can be used in cost-effectiveness analyses of current and future prevention methods, such as a vaccine.

Aedes Albopictus and Cache Valley virus: a new threat for virus transmission in New York State.

We report surveillance results of Cache Valley virus (CVV; Peribunyaviridae, Orthobunyavirus) from 2017 to 2020 in New York State (NYS). Infection rates were calculated using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method by year, region, and mosquito species. The highest infection rates were identified among Anopheles spp. mosquitoes and we detected the virus in Aedes albopictus for the first time in NYS. Based on our previous Anopheles quadrimaculatus vector competence results for nine CVV strains, we selected among them three stains for further characterization. These include two CVV reassortants (PA and 15041084) and one CVV lineage 2 strain (Hu-2011). We analyzed full genomes, compared in vitro growth kinetics and assessed vector competence of Aedes albopictus. Sequence analysis of the two reassortant strains (PA and 15041084) revealed 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.3% divergence; and 1, 10, and 6 amino acid differences for the S, M, and L segments, respectively. We additionally found that the PA strain was attenuated in vertebrate (Vero) and mosquito (C6/36) cell culture. Furthemore, Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are competent vectors for CVV Hu-2011 (16.7-62.1% transmission rates) and CVV 15041084 (27.3-48.0% transmission rates), but not for the human reassortant (PA) isolate, which did not disseminate from the mosquito midgut. Together, our results demonstrate significant phenotypic variability among strains and highlight the capacity for Ae. albopictus to act as a vector of CVV.

Role of Anopheles Mosquitoes in Cache Valley Virus Lineage Displacement, New York, USA.

Cache Valley virus (CVV) is a mosquitoborne virus that infects livestock and humans. We report results of surveillance for CVV in New York, USA, during 2000-2016; full-genome analysis of selected CVV isolates from sheep, horse, humans, and mosquitoes from New York and Canada; and phenotypic characterization of selected strains. We calculated infection rates by using the maximum-likelihood estimation method by year, region, month, and mosquito species. The highest maximum-likelihood estimations were for Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Our phylogenetic analysis identified 2 lineages and found evidence of segment reassortment. Furthermore, our data suggest displacement of CVV lineage 1 by lineage 2 in New York and Canada. Finally, we showed increased vector competence of An. quadrimaculatus mosquitoes for lineage 2 strains of CVV compared with lineage 1 strains.

Predicting spatio-temporal population patterns of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease pathogen.

The causative bacterium of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, expanded from an undetected human pathogen into the etiologic agent of the most common vector-borne disease in the United States over the last several decades. Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases in the geographic range and prevalence of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks that coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York State.We investigate the impact of environmental features on the population dynamics of B. burgdorferi. Analytical models developed using field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal Ixodes scapularis and spatially and temporally explicit environmental features accurately explained the variation in the nymphal infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi across space and time.Importantly, the model identified environmental features reflecting landscape ecology, vertebrate hosts, climatic metrics, climate anomalies and surveillance efforts that can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled areas.Forecasting the distribution and prevalence of a pathogen at fine geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public health threat. Synthesis and applications. A decade of environmental and tick data was collected to create a model that accurately predicts the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi over space and time. This predictive model can be extrapolated to create a high-resolution risk map of the Lyme disease pathogen for future years that offers an inexpensive approach to improve both ecological management and public health strategies to mitigate disease risk.

Heartland Virus Transmission, Suffolk County, New York, USA.

During 2018, Heartland virus RNA was detected in an Amblyomma americanum tick removed from a resident of Suffolk County, New York, USA. The person showed seroconversion. Tick surveillance and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) serosurveys showed widespread distribution in Suffolk County, emphasizing a need for disease surveillance anywhere A. americanum ticks are established or emerging.

Epidemiology and Spatial Emergence of Anaplasmosis, New York, USA, 2010‒2018.

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis, a tickborne disease caused by the bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, was first identified during 1994 and is now an emerging public health threat in the United States. New York state (NYS) has experienced a recent increase in the incidence of anaplasmosis. We analyzed human case surveillance and tick surveillance data collected by the NYS Department of Health for spatiotemporal patterns of disease emergence. We describe the epidemiology and growing incidence of anaplasmosis cases reported during 2010-2018. Spatial analysis showed an expanding hot spot of anaplasmosis in the Capital Region, where incidence increased >8-fold. The prevalence of A. phagocytophilum increased greatly within tick populations in the Capital Region over the same period, and entomologic risk factors were correlated with disease incidence at a local level. These results indicate that anaplasmosis is rapidly emerging in a geographically focused area of NYS, likely driven by localized changes in exposure risk.

A Comparative Spatial and Climate Analysis of Human Granulocytic Anaplasmosis and Human Babesiosis in New York State (2013-2018).

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) and human babesiosis are tick-borne diseases spread by the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) and are the result of infection with Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti, respectively. In New York State (NYS), incidence rates of these diseases increased concordantly until around 2013, when rates of HGA began to increase more rapidly than human babesiosis, and the spatial extent of the diseases diverged. Surveillance data of tick-borne pathogens (2007 to 2018) and reported human cases of HGA (n = 4,297) and human babesiosis (n = 2,986) (2013-2018) from the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) showed a positive association between the presence/temporal emergence of each pathogen and rates of disease in surrounding areas. Incidence rates of HGA were higher than human babesiosis among White and non-Hispanic/non-Latino individuals, as well as all age and sex groups. Human babesiosis exhibited higher rates among non-White individuals. Climate, weather, and landscape data were used to build a spatially weighted zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model to examine and compare associations between the environment and rates of HGA and human babesiosis. HGA and human babesiosis ZINB models indicated similar associations with forest cover, forest land cover change, and winter minimum temperature; and differing associations with elevation, urban land cover change, and winter precipitation. These results indicate that tick-borne disease ecology varies between pathogens spread by I. scapularis.

Spatio-temporal variation in environmental features predicts the distribution and abundance of Ixodes scapularis.

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in both geographic range and population sizes in recent history. Increases in the geographic range or population size of disease vectors have public health relevance as these increases often precipitate the emergence of infectious diseases in human populations. Accurately identifying environmental factors affecting the biogeographic patterns of vector species is a long-standing analytical challenge, stemming from a paucity of data capturing periods of rapid changes in vector demographics. We systematically investigated the occurrence and abundance of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks at 532 sampling locations throughout New York State (NY), USA, between 2008 and 2018, a time frame that encompasses the emergence of diseases vectored by these ticks. Analyses of these field-collected data demonstrated a range expansion into northern and western NY during the last decade. Nymphal abundances increased in newly colonised areas, while remaining stable in areas with long-standing populations over the last decade. These trends in the geographic range and abundance of nymphs correspond to both the geographic expansion of human Lyme disease cases and increases in incidence rates. Analytic models fitted to these data incorporating time, space, and environmental factors, accurately identified drivers of the observed changes in nymphal occurrence and abundance. These models accounted for the spatial and temporal variation in the occurrence and abundance of nymphs and can accurately predict nymphal population patterns in future years. Forecasting disease risk at fine spatial scales prior to the transmission season can influence both public health mitigation strategies and individual behaviours, potentially impacting tick-borne disease risk and subsequently human disease incidence.

Protective Immunity and New Vaccines for Lyme Disease.

Lyme disease, caused by some Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, is the most common tick-borne illness in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of cases, and geographic spread, continue to grow. Previously identified B. burgdorferi proteins, lipid immunogens, and live mutants lead the design of canonical vaccines aimed at disrupting infection in the host. Discovery of the mechanism of action of the first vaccine catalyzed the development of new strategies to control Lyme disease that bypassed direct vaccination of the human host. Thus, novel prevention concepts center on proteins produced by B. burgdorferi during tick transit and on tick proteins that mediate feeding and pathogen transmission. A burgeoning area of research is tick immunity as it can unlock mechanistic pathways that could be targeted for disruption. Studies that shed light on the mammalian immune pathways engaged during tick-transmitted B. burgdorferi infection would further development of vaccination strategies against Lyme disease.