A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level.

This study aimed to identify an appropriate simple mathematical model to fit the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the national level for the early portion of the pandemic, before significant public health interventions could be enacted. The total number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic over time in 28 countries was analysed and fit to several simple rate models. The resulting model parameters were used to extrapolate projections for more recent data. While the Gompertz growth model (mean R2 = 0.998) best fit the current data, uncertainties in the eventual case limit introduced significant model errors. However, the quadratic rate model (mean R2 = 0.992) fit the current data best for 25 (89%) countries as determined by R2 values of the remaining models. Projection to the future using the simple quadratic model accurately forecast the number of future total number of cases 50% of the time up to 10 days in advance. Extrapolation to the future with the simple exponential model significantly overpredicted the total number of future cases. These results demonstrate that accurate future predictions of the case load in a given country can be made using this very simple model.

Diagnostic parameters of modified two-tier testing in European patients with early Lyme disease.

Modified two-tier testing (MTTT) for Lyme borreliosis (i.e. confirmation with an EIA instead of an immunoblot) has been shown to have improved sensitivity compared with standard two-tier testing (STTT) in samples from American patients, without losing specificity. The current study assesses the sensitivity and specificity of various algorithms of MTTT in European patients with erythema migrans (EM) as a model disease for early Lyme borreliosis, and in appropriate controls. Four different immunoassays were used in the first tier, followed by either an immunoblot or the C6-EIA, or were used as standalone single-tier test. These tests were performed on consecutively collected sera of 228 Dutch patients with physician-diagnosed EM in the setting of general practice, 231 controls from the general population, and 50 controls with potentially cross-reactive antibodies. All the variants of MTTT that were studied had significantly higher sensitivity compared with their equivalent STTT, while retaining comparable specificity. Within the MTTT algorithms, classifying equivocal results as positive yielded better diagnostic parameters than classifying equivocal results as negative. The best diagnostic parameters were found using the Enzygnost-2 assay in the first tier, followed by a C6-ELISA in the second tier (sensitivity 77.6%, 95% CI 71.7-82.9; specificity 96.1%, 95% CI 92.7-98.2). This algorithm performed significantly better than the equivalent STTT algorithm in terms of sensitivity (p < 0.001), while maintaining comparable specificity (population controls p = 0.617). Our results show that MTTT can be a useful tool for the serodiagnosis of European patients with early Lyme borreliosis.

Magnetization relaxation in the single-ion magnet DySc2N@C80: quantum tunneling, magnetic dilution, and unconventional temperature dependence.

Relaxation of magnetization in endohedral metallofullerenes DySc2N@C80 is studied at different temperatures, in different magnetic fields, and in different molecular arrangements. Magnetization behavior and relaxation are analyzed for powder sample, and for DySc2N@C80 diluted in non-magnetic fullerene Lu3N@C80, adsorbed in voids of a metal-organic framework, and dispersed in a polymer. The magnetic field dependence and zero-field relaxation are also studied for single-crystals of DySc2N@C80 co-crystallized with Ni(ii) octaethylporphyrin, as well as for the single crystal diluted with Lu3N@C80. Landau-Zener theory is applied to analyze quantum tunneling of magnetization in the crystals. The field dependence of relaxation rates revealed a dramatic dependence of the zero-field tunneling resonance width on the dilution and is explained with the help of an analysis of dipolar field distributions. AC magnetometry is used then to get access to the relaxation of magnetization in a broader temperature range, from 2 to 87 K. Finally, a theoretical framework describing the spin dynamics with dissipation is proposed to study magnetization relaxation phenomena in single molecule magnets.

A multicentre verification study of the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold Plus assay.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this verification study was to compare the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) to the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In Tube (QFT-GIT). The new QFT-Plus test contains an extra antigen tube which, according to the manufacturer additionally elicits a CD8+ T-cell response above the CD4+ T-cell response. We assessed the value of this tube in detecting recent latent tuberculosis infections. METHODS: Between May 2015 and December 2016, 1031 subjects underwent QFT-Plus and QFT-GIT test. Overall agreement between both tests and performance for different test indications and/or immune states was assessed. A difference of >0.6 IU/mL interferon-γ release between the two antigen tubes of the QFT-Plus assay was considered a true difference and used as estimation for CD8+ T-cell response. RESULTS: Analysis of the QuantiFERON tests resulted in an overall agreement between assays of 95%. Subjects considered to be recently exposed to tuberculosis had significantly more often a true difference in interferon-γ release compared to all other subjects (p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: Results of QFT-Plus are highly comparable to QFT-GIT. Although there is an indication that a true difference in interferon-γ release between the antigen tubes is associated with recent latent tuberculosis infection, the QFT-Plus could not be used to exclude recent exposure.

The added value of hepatitis E diagnostics in determining causes of hepatitis in routine diagnostic settings in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotype 3 is endemic in Europe and an underdiagnosed and emerging (public) health issue. In recent years commercial enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) that detect antibodies to HEV more adequately, became available. We investigated the added value of this HEV serology in the diagnostic work flow to detect viral causes of recent hepatitis. METHODS: During a 2-year period (May 2013 to May 2015), HEV serology was added to the hepatitis work flow, consisting of serological detection of hepatitis viruses A, B and C (HAV, HBV, HCV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV). Samples positive for HEV IgM were also analysed using PCR to detect HEV RNA. If positive, HEV sequencing was performed for genotyping purposes. RESULTS: In 235 out of 2521 patients (9.3%), a viral cause for hepatitis was found. Recent HAV, HBV, HCV, EBV or CMV infections were serologically diagnosed in 3, 34, 10, 69 and 42 patients, respectively. Seventy-eight patients (3.1%) had a recent HEV infection. In 49 of them, sufficient HEV RNA was present for genotyping. All patients were infected with HEV genotype 3. CONCLUSIONS: In our region, an HEV infection is the most frequently diagnosed viral cause for recent hepatitis. These results indicate that, in a country where HEV is endemic, serological HEV diagnostics should be added to the standard work-up for viral hepatitis.

Large-scale flow generation by inhomogeneous helicity.

The effect of kinetic helicity (velocity-vorticity correlation) on turbulent momentum transport is investigated. The turbulent kinetic helicity (pseudoscalar) enters the Reynolds stress (mirror-symmetric tensor) expression in the form of a helicity gradient as the coupling coefficient for the mean vorticity and/or the angular velocity (axial vector), which suggests the possibility of mean-flow generation in the presence of inhomogeneous helicity. This inhomogeneous helicity effect, which was previously confirmed at the level of a turbulence- or closure-model simulation, is examined with the aid of direct numerical simulations of rotating turbulence with nonuniform helicity sustained by an external forcing. The numerical simulations show that the spatial distribution of the Reynolds stress is in agreement with the helicity-related term coupled with the angular velocity, and that a large-scale flow is generated in the direction of angular velocity. Such a large-scale flow is not induced in the case of homogeneous turbulent helicity. This result confirms the validity of the inhomogeneous helicity effect in large-scale flow generation and suggests that a vortex dynamo is possible even in incompressible turbulence where there is no baroclinicity effect.

The diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for Lyme borreliosis in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Interpretation of serological assays in Lyme borreliosis requires an understanding of the clinical indications and the limitations of the currently available tests. We therefore systematically reviewed the accuracy of serological tests for the diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis in Europe. METHODS: We searched EMBASE en MEDLINE and contacted experts. Studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of serological assays for Lyme borreliosis in Europe were eligible. Study selection and data-extraction were done by two authors independently. We assessed study quality using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We used a hierarchical summary ROC meta-regression method for the meta-analyses. Potential sources of heterogeneity were test-type, commercial or in-house, Ig-type, antigen type and study quality. These were added as covariates to the model, to assess their effect on test accuracy. RESULTS: Seventy-eight studies evaluating an Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent assay (ELISA) or an immunoblot assay against a reference standard of clinical criteria were included. None of the studies had low risk of bias for all QUADAS-2 domains. Sensitivity was highly heterogeneous, with summary estimates: erythema migrans 50% (95% CI 40% to 61%); neuroborreliosis 77% (95% CI 67% to 85%); acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans 97% (95% CI 94% to 99%); unspecified Lyme borreliosis 73% (95% CI 53% to 87%). Specificity was around 95% in studies with healthy controls, but around 80% in cross-sectional studies. Two-tiered algorithms or antibody indices did not outperform single test approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The observed heterogeneity and risk of bias complicate the extrapolation of our results to clinical practice. The usefulness of the serological tests for Lyme disease depends on the pre-test probability and subsequent predictive values in the setting where the tests are being used. Future diagnostic accuracy studies should be prospectively planned cross-sectional studies, done in settings where the test will be used in practice.

A Randomised Controlled Trial of Consent Procedures for the Use of Residual Tissues for Medical Research: Preferences of and Implications for Patients, Research and Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: Despite much debate, there is little evidence on consequences of consent procedures for residual tissue use. Here, we investigated these consequences for the availability of residual tissue for medical research, clinical practice, and patient informedness. METHODS: We conducted a randomised clinical trial with three arms in six hospitals. Participants, patients from whom tissue had been removed for diagnosis or treatment, were randomised to one of three arms: informed consent, an opt-out procedure with active information provision (opt-out plus), and an opt-out procedure without active information provision. Participants received a questionnaire six weeks post-intervention; a subsample of respondents was interviewed. Health care providers completed a pre- and post-intervention questionnaire. We assessed percentage of residual tissue samples available for medical research, and patient and health care provider satisfaction and preference. Health care providers and outcome assessors could not be blinded. RESULTS: We randomised 1,319 patients, 440 in the informed consent, 434 in the opt-out plus, and 445 in the opt-out arm; respectively 60.7%, 100%, and 99.8% of patients' tissue samples could be used for medical research. Of the questionnaire respondents (N = 224, 207, and 214 in the informed consent, opt-out plus, and opt-out arms), 71%, 69%, and 31%, respectively, indicated being (very) well informed. By questionnaire, the majority (53%) indicated a preference for informed consent, whereas by interview, most indicated a preference for opt-out plus (37%). Health care providers (N = 35) were more likely to be (very) satisfied with opt-out plus than with informed consent (p = 0.002) or opt-out (p = 0.039); the majority (66%) preferred opt-out plus. CONCLUSION: We conclude that opt-out with information (opt-out plus) is the best choice to balance the consequences for medical research, patients, and clinical practice, and is therefore the most optimal consent procedure for residual tissue use in Dutch hospitals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register NTR2982.

Inter-laboratory study of human in vitro toxicogenomics-based tests as alternative methods for evaluating chemical carcinogenicity: a bioinformatics perspective.

The assessment of the carcinogenic potential of chemicals with alternative, human-based in vitro systems has become a major goal of toxicogenomics. The central read-out of these assays is the transcriptome, and while many studies exist that explored the gene expression responses of such systems, reports on robustness and reproducibility, when testing them independently in different laboratories, are still uncommon. Furthermore, there is limited knowledge about variability induced by the data analysis protocols. We have conducted an inter-laboratory study for testing chemical carcinogenicity evaluating two human in vitro assays: hepatoma-derived cells and hTERT-immortalized renal proximal tubule epithelial cells, representing liver and kidney as major target organs. Cellular systems were initially challenged with thirty compounds, genome-wide gene expression was measured with microarrays, and hazard classifiers were built from this training set. Subsequently, each system was independently established in three different laboratories, and gene expression measurements were conducted using anonymized compounds. Data analysis was performed independently by two separate groups applying different protocols for the assessment of inter-laboratory reproducibility and for the prediction of carcinogenic hazard. As a result, both workflows came to very similar conclusions with respect to (1) identification of experimental outliers, (2) overall assessment of robustness and inter-laboratory reproducibility and (3) re-classification of the unknown compounds to the respective toxicity classes. In summary, the developed bioinformatics workflows deliver accurate measures for inter-laboratory comparison studies, and the study can be used as guidance for validation of future carcinogenicity assays in order to implement testing of human in vitro alternatives to animal testing.

A Dutch nationwide evaluation of serological assays for detection of Borrelia antibodies in clinically well-defined patients.

Numerous tests for the detection of antibodies against Borrelia burgdorferi are commercially available. Manufacturer-derived data invariably report a high sensitivity and specificity, but comparative studies demonstrate large differences in clinical practice, especially with regard to specificity. We retrospectively collected data from validation studies for B. burgdorferi antibody assays from 8 laboratories in the Netherlands. The total number of samples was 809. Samples were selected based on clinical and laboratory parameters. We included samples from patients with erythema migrans, acrodermatitis chronicum atrophicans, and neuroborreliosis; cross-reactivity controls; and healthy controls. Data are presented from 10 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and 5 immunoblots. For manifestations of B. burgdorferi infection with short disease duration, the positivity rate of the assays varied significantly. In patients with long disease duration, the positivity rate differed only marginally. In cross-reactivity controls, there was significant variation in the reactivity rate. The majority of false-positive reactions are of the IgM isotype.

α effect in a turbulent liquid-metal plane Couette flow.

We calculate the mean electromotive force in plane Couette flows of a nonrotating conducting fluid under the influence of a large-scale magnetic field for driven turbulence. A vertical stratification of the turbulence intensity results in an α effect owing to the presence of horizontal shear. Here we discuss the possibility of an experimental determination of the components of the α tensor using both quasilinear theory and nonlinear numerical simulations. For magnetic Prandtl numbers of the order of unity, we find that in the high-conductivity limit the α effect in the direction of the flow clearly exceeds the component in spanwise direction. In this limit, α runs linearly with the magnetic Reynolds number Rm, while in the low-conductivity limit it runs with the product Rm·Re, where Re is the kinetic Reynolds number, so that for a given Rm the α effect grows with decreasing magnetic Prandtl number. For the small magnetic Prandtl numbers of liquid metals, a common value for the horizontal elements of the α tensor appears, which makes it unimportant whether the α effect is measured in the spanwise or the streamwise directions. The resulting effect should lead to an observable voltage of about 0.5 mV in both directions for magnetic fields of 1 kG and velocity fluctuations of about 1 m/s in a channel of 50-cm height (independent of its width).

Long-term outcome of intravenous therapy with rituximab in patients with primary cutaneous B-cell lymphomas.

BACKGROUND: The monoclonal antibody rituximab directed against the B-cell antigen CD20 was approved for the treatment of B-cell lymphomas and maintenance therapy in follicular lymphomas more than a decade ago. However, median follow-up in case series of intravenous rituximab therapy in primary cutaneous B-cell lymphomas (CBCL) lasts only up to 3 years. We retrospectively analysed a cohort of CBCL patients treated with rituximab to gain more long term information. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eighteen patients, treated intravenously with rituximab for a primary cutaneous B-cell lymphoma [follicle centre lymphoma (PCFCL), n = 11; diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, leg type (PCLBCL, leg type), n = 5; marginal zone B-cell lymphoma (PCMZL), n = 2] were included. The response rate (RR), time to relapse (TTR), and course of the disease after treatment were analysed. RESULTS: The overall RR was 89% (16 of 18 patients). Within the median follow-up time of 52 months, 81% (13 of 16) of patients experienced a relapse; the median TTR was 25 months. The duration of remission was significantly shorter in patients presenting with generalized skin lesions at start of therapy. Both nonresponding patients suffered from PCLBCL, leg type, with extracutaneous manifestations. In responders severe adverse events, the occurrence of extracutaneous dissemination or nodal lymphomas were not observed during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Therapy with rituximab is effective and safe for the treatment of PCFCL, but relapses, in particular in patients with generalized skin involvement, are commonly observed. However, all patients with relapses responded well to treatment and therefore maintenance therapy does not seem to be indicated. Patients with PCLBCL, leg type, should receive chemotherapy in addition to rituximab.

Early recognition of aortitis of the aorta ascendens with ¹8F-FDG PET/CT: syphilitic?

We present the case of a 42-year-old woman known with a human leukocyte antigen B27 positive ankylosing spondylitis. Despite treatment with a tumor necrosis factor blocking agent, the patient was not pain free and inflammation markers remained elevated. An (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ((18)F-FDG PET/CT) was performed in an attempt to exclude possible other inflammatory processes. The (18)F-FDG PET/CT revealed increased metabolic activity in the ascending aortic wall, which appeared unexpectedly related to late syphilis. Based on this case and existing literature on this subject, we come to the conclusion that (18)F-FDG PET/CT can help in an early establishment of syphilitic aortitis before the possible life-threatening sequelae of syphilitic aortitis occur.

High sensitivity and specificity of the C6-peptide ELISA on cerebrospinal fluid in Lyme neuroborreliosis patients.

Lyme neuroborreliosis (LNB) is a serious but treatable disease. The diagnosis of LNB poses a challenge to clinicians, and improved tests are needed. The C6-peptide ELISA is frequently used on serum but not on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Data on the sensitivity of the C6-peptide ELISA in CSF in patients suffering from LNB have been conflicting. Serum-CSF pairs from 59 LNB patients, 36 Lyme non-neuroborreliosis cases, 69 infectious meningitis/encephalitis controls and 74 neurological controls were tested in a C6-peptide ELISA. With the optimal cut-off of 1.1, the sensitivity of the C6-peptide ELISA for LNB patients in CSF was 95%, and the specificity was 83% in the Lyme non-neuroborreliosis patients, 96% in the infectious controls, and 97% in the neurological controls. These results suggest that the C6-peptide ELISA has a high sensitivity and good specificity for the diagnosis of LNB patients in CSF. The C6-peptide ELISA can be used on CSF in a clinical setting to screen for LNB.

[Small risk of developing Lyme borreliosis following a tick bite on Ameland: research in a general practice]. / Kleine kans op lymeborreliose na een tekenbeet op Ameland: onderzoek in een huisartsenpraktijk.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the percentage of ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi on the Dutch North Sea island of Ameland, and the risk of developing Lyme disease following tick bite on the island. DESIGN: Prospective, observational. METHOD: Ticks were collected from patients who visited a general practitioner and were tested for the DNA of B. burgdorferi. After 6 months the patients were interviewed by phone using a standardised questionnaire. RESULTS: From 2004-2006, 216 ticks were collected from 167 persons. Most ticks were removed within 24 hours. In 44 ticks (20.4%) B. burgdorferi DNA was detected. Follow up information was available on 146 persons, 41 (28.1%) of whom had been bitten by a Borrelia-positive tick. None of the persons developed a typical erythema migrans. From the 13 persons (9%) reporting a non-specific redness of the skin (diameter less than 5 cm) at the site of the tick bite, 5 had been bitten by a positive tick and 8 by a negative tick. One patient bitten by a positive tick reported systemic symptoms related to Lyme borreliosis, namely fatigue, perspiration and joint ache, without local redness. CONCLUSION: The probability of developing Lyme borreliosis was low even though a relatively large percentage of the ticks collected were positive for B. burgdorferi. This is probably connected to the fact that in the majority of cases the tick had been removed within 24 hours.

Subchondral bone density of the radial head measured with subtraction densitometry.

The purpose of this study was to develop a two-dimensional density distribution pattern of the subchondral cortical bone of the radial head using subtraction densitometry. The bone density of 32 normal specimens and five with macroscopic signs of osteoarthritis was measured before and after milling off the cortical bone surface. Electronic subtraction gave the density of the subchondral cortical bone. Twenty-one specimens had areas of high bone density in the ulnar-dorsal area, five specimens showed a ventral and ulnar density maximum and six had a density maximum in the center of the radial head joint surface. No density maximum was seen in the lateral part of the joint surface. The density maximum shifted towards the dorsal-ulnar part of the radial head with decreasing total subchondral bone density. Osteoarthritic radial heads had the same distribution as non-arthritic specimens. Eccentric subchondral bone density reflects eccentric radiohumeral force transmission. This could be a reason for development of radiohumeral arthritis or the failure of radial head prostheses. Bone density patterns correlate with the incidence of radial head fractures and fracture line may be positioned between areas of high and low densities.

Dissociation in a polymerization model of homochirality.

A fully self-contained model of homochirality is presented that contains the effects of both polymerization and dissociation. The dissociation fragments are assumed to replenish the substrate from which new monomers can grow and undergo new polymerization. The mean length of isotactic polymers is found to grow slowly with the normalized total number of corresponding building blocks. Alternatively, if one assumes that the dissociation fragments themselves can polymerize further, then this corresponds to a strong source of short polymers, and an unrealistically short average length of only 3. By contrast, without dissociation, isotactic polymers becomes infinitely long.

Homochiral growth through enantiomeric cross-inhibition.

The stability and conservation properties of a recently proposed polymerization model are studied. The achiral (racemic) solution is linearly unstable once the relevant control parameter (here the fidelity of the catalyst) exceeds a critical value. The growth rate is calculated for different fidelity parameters and cross-inhibition rates. A chirality parameter is defined and shown to be conserved by the nonlinear terms of the model. Finally, a truncated version of the model is used to derive a set of two ordinary differential equations and it is argued that these equations are more realistic than those used in earlier models of that form.