pyPESTO: a modular and scalable tool for parameter estimation for dynamic models.

SUMMARY: Mechanistic models are important tools to describe and understand biological processes. However, they typically rely on unknown parameters, the estimation of which can be challenging for large and complex systems. pyPESTO is a modular framework for systematic parameter estimation, with scalable algorithms for optimization and uncertainty quantification. While tailored to ordinary differential equation problems, pyPESTO is broadly applicable to black-box parameter estimation problems. Besides own implementations, it provides a unified interface to various popular simulation and inference methods. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: pyPESTO is implemented in Python, open-source under a 3-Clause BSD license. Code and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/icb-dcm/pypesto).

A Practical Guide for the Efficient Formulation and Calibration of Large, Energy- and Rule-Based Models of Cellular Signal Transduction.

Aberrant signal transduction leads to complex diseases such as cancer. To rationally design treatment strategies with small molecule inhibitors, computational models have to be employed. Energy- and rule-based models allow the construction of mechanistic ordinary differential equation models based on structural insights. The detailed, energy-based description often generates large models, which are difficult to calibrate on experimental data. In this chapter, we provide a detailed, interactive protocol for the programmatic formulation and calibration of such large, energy- and rule-based models of cellular signal transduction based on an example model describing the action of RAF inhibitors on MAPK signaling. An interactive version of this chapter is available as Jupyter Notebook at github.com/FFroehlich/energy_modeling_chapter .

Multi-range ERK responses shape the proliferative trajectory of single cells following oncogene induction.

Oncogene-induced senescence is a phenomenon in which aberrant oncogene expression causes non-transformed cells to enter a non-proliferative state. Cells undergoing oncogenic induction display phenotypic heterogeneity, with some cells senescing and others remaining proliferative. The causes of heterogeneity remain unclear. We studied the sources of heterogeneity in the responses of human epithelial cells to oncogenic BRAFV600E expression. We found that a narrow expression range of BRAFV600E generated a wide range of activities of its downstream effector ERK. In population-level and single-cell assays, ERK activity displayed a non-monotonic relationship to proliferation, with intermediate ERK activities leading to maximal proliferation. We profiled gene expression across a range of ERK activities over time and characterized four distinct ERK response classes, which we propose act in concert to generate the ERK-proliferation response. Altogether, our studies map the input-output relationships between ERK activity and proliferation, elucidating how heterogeneity can be generated during oncogene induction.

Efficient computation of adjoint sensitivities at steady-state in ODE models of biochemical reaction networks.

Dynamical models in the form of systems of ordinary differential equations have become a standard tool in systems biology. Many parameters of such models are usually unknown and have to be inferred from experimental data. Gradient-based optimization has proven to be effective for parameter estimation. However, computing gradients becomes increasingly costly for larger models, which are required for capturing the complex interactions of multiple biochemical pathways. Adjoint sensitivity analysis has been pivotal for working with such large models, but methods tailored for steady-state data are currently not available. We propose a new adjoint method for computing gradients, which is applicable if the experimental data include steady-state measurements. The method is based on a reformulation of the backward integration problem to a system of linear algebraic equations. The evaluation of the proposed method using real-world problems shows a speedup of total simulation time by a factor of up to 4.4. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve a substantial improvement in computation time, in particular for large-scale models, where computational efficiency is critical.

Mechanistic model of MAPK signaling reveals how allostery and rewiring contribute to drug resistance.

BRAF is prototypical of oncogenes that can be targeted therapeutically and the treatment of BRAFV600E melanomas with RAF and MEK inhibitors results in rapid tumor regression. However, drug-induced rewiring generates a drug adapted state thought to be involved in acquired resistance and disease recurrence. In this article, we study mechanisms of adaptive rewiring in BRAFV600E melanoma cells using an energy-based implementation of ordinary differential equation (ODE) modeling in combination with proteomic, transcriptomic and imaging data. We develop a method for causal tracing of ODE models and identify two parallel MAPK reaction channels that are differentially sensitive to RAF and MEK inhibitors due to differences in protein oligomerization and drug binding. We describe how these channels, and timescale separation between immediate-early signaling and transcriptional feedback, create a state in which the RAS-regulated MAPK channel can be activated by growth factors under conditions in which the BRAFV600E -driven channel is fully inhibited. Further development of the approaches in this article is expected to yield a unified model of adaptive drug resistance in melanoma.

Fides: Reliable trust-region optimization for parameter estimation of ordinary differential equation models.

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to study biochemical reactions in cellular networks since they effectively describe the temporal evolution of these networks using mass action kinetics. The parameters of these models are rarely known a priori and must instead be estimated by calibration using experimental data. Optimization-based calibration of ODE models on is often challenging, even for low-dimensional problems. Multiple hypotheses have been advanced to explain why biochemical model calibration is challenging, including non-identifiability of model parameters, but there are few comprehensive studies that test these hypotheses, likely because tools for performing such studies are also lacking. Nonetheless, reliable model calibration is essential for uncertainty analysis, model comparison, and biological interpretation. We implemented an established trust-region method as a modular Python framework (fides) to enable systematic comparison of different approaches to ODE model calibration involving a variety of Hessian approximation schemes. We evaluated fides on a recently developed corpus of biologically realistic benchmark problems for which real experimental data are available. Unexpectedly, we observed high variability in optimizer performance among different implementations of the same mathematical instructions (algorithms). Analysis of possible sources of poor optimizer performance identified limitations in the widely used Gauss-Newton, BFGS and SR1 Hessian approximation schemes. We addressed these drawbacks with a novel hybrid Hessian approximation scheme that enhances optimizer performance and outperforms existing hybrid approaches. When applied to the corpus of test models, we found that fides was on average more reliable and efficient than existing methods using a variety of criteria. We expect fides to be broadly useful for ODE constrained optimization problems in biochemical models and to be a foundation for future methods development.

BioSimulators: a central registry of simulation engines and services for recommending specific tools.

Computational models have great potential to accelerate bioscience, bioengineering, and medicine. However, it remains challenging to reproduce and reuse simulations, in part, because the numerous formats and methods for simulating various subsystems and scales remain siloed by different software tools. For example, each tool must be executed through a distinct interface. To help investigators find and use simulation tools, we developed BioSimulators (https://biosimulators.org), a central registry of the capabilities of simulation tools and consistent Python, command-line and containerized interfaces to each version of each tool. The foundation of BioSimulators is standards, such as CellML, SBML, SED-ML and the COMBINE archive format, and validation tools for simulation projects and simulation tools that ensure these standards are used consistently. To help modelers find tools for particular projects, we have also used the registry to develop recommendation services. We anticipate that BioSimulators will help modelers exchange, reproduce, and combine simulations.

A protocol for dynamic model calibration.

Ordinary differential equation models are nowadays widely used for the mechanistic description of biological processes and their temporal evolution. These models typically have many unknown and nonmeasurable parameters, which have to be determined by fitting the model to experimental data. In order to perform this task, known as parameter estimation or model calibration, the modeller faces challenges such as poor parameter identifiability, lack of sufficiently informative experimental data and the existence of local minima in the objective function landscape. These issues tend to worsen with larger model sizes, increasing the computational complexity and the number of unknown parameters. An incorrectly calibrated model is problematic because it may result in inaccurate predictions and misleading conclusions. For nonexpert users, there are a large number of potential pitfalls. Here, we provide a protocol that guides the user through all the steps involved in the calibration of dynamic models. We illustrate the methodology with two models and provide all the code required to reproduce the results and perform the same analysis on new models. Our protocol provides practitioners and researchers in biological modelling with a one-stop guide that is at the same time compact and sufficiently comprehensive to cover all aspects of the problem.

Combination treatment optimization using a pan-cancer pathway model.

The design of efficient combination therapies is a difficult key challenge in the treatment of complex diseases such as cancers. The large heterogeneity of cancers and the large number of available drugs renders exhaustive in vivo or even in vitro investigation of possible treatments impractical. In recent years, sophisticated mechanistic, ordinary differential equation-based pathways models that can predict treatment responses at a molecular level have been developed. However, surprisingly little effort has been put into leveraging these models to find novel therapies. In this paper we use for the first time, to our knowledge, a large-scale state-of-the-art pan-cancer signaling pathway model to identify candidates for novel combination therapies to treat individual cancer cell lines from various tissues (e.g., minimizing proliferation while keeping dosage low to avoid adverse side effects) and populations of heterogeneous cancer cell lines (e.g., minimizing the maximum or average proliferation across the cell lines while keeping dosage low). We also show how our method can be used to optimize the drug combinations used in sequential treatment plans-that is, optimized sequences of potentially different drug combinations-providing additional benefits. In order to solve the treatment optimization problems, we combine the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) algorithm with a significantly more scalable sampling scheme for truncated Gaussian distributions, based on a Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo method. These optimization techniques are independent of the signaling pathway model, and can thus be adapted to find treatment candidates for other complex diseases than cancers as well, as long as a suitable predictive model is available.

AMICI: high-performance sensitivity analysis for large ordinary differential equation models.

SUMMARY: Ordinary differential equation models facilitate the understanding of cellular signal transduction and other biological processes. However, for large and comprehensive models, the computational cost of simulating or calibrating can be limiting. AMICI is a modular toolbox implemented in C++/Python/MATLAB that provides efficient simulation and sensitivity analysis routines tailored for scalable, gradient-based parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. AVAILABILITYAND IMPLEMENTATION: AMICI is published under the permissive BSD-3-Clause license with source code publicly available on https://github.com/AMICI-dev/AMICI. Citeable releases are archived on Zenodo. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

PEtab-Interoperable specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology.

Reproducibility and reusability of the results of data-based modeling studies are essential. Yet, there has been-so far-no broadly supported format for the specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology. Here, we introduce PEtab, a format which facilitates the specification of parameter estimation problems using Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) models and a set of tab-separated value files describing the observation model and experimental data as well as parameters to be estimated. We already implemented PEtab support into eight well-established model simulation and parameter estimation toolboxes with hundreds of users in total. We provide a Python library for validation and modification of a PEtab problem and currently 20 example parameter estimation problems based on recent studies.

Receptor-Driven ERK Pulses Reconfigure MAPK Signaling and Enable Persistence of Drug-Adapted BRAF-Mutant Melanoma Cells.

Targeted inhibition of oncogenic pathways can be highly effective in halting the rapid growth of tumors but often leads to the emergence of slowly dividing persister cells, which constitute a reservoir for the selection of drug-resistant clones. In BRAFV600E melanomas, RAF and MEK inhibitors efficiently block oncogenic signaling, but persister cells emerge. Here, we show that persister cells escape drug-induced cell-cycle arrest via brief, sporadic ERK pulses generated by transmembrane receptors and growth factors operating in an autocrine/paracrine manner. Quantitative proteomics and computational modeling show that ERK pulsing is enabled by rewiring of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling: from an oncogenic BRAFV600E monomer-driven configuration that is drug sensitive to a receptor-driven configuration that involves Ras-GTP and RAF dimers and is highly resistant to RAF and MEK inhibitors. Altogether, this work shows that pulsatile MAPK activation by factors in the microenvironment generates a persistent population of melanoma cells that rewires MAPK signaling to sustain non-genetic drug resistance.

Efficient parameterization of large-scale dynamic models based on relative measurements.

MOTIVATION: Mechanistic models of biochemical reaction networks facilitate the quantitative understanding of biological processes and the integration of heterogeneous datasets. However, some biological processes require the consideration of comprehensive reaction networks and therefore large-scale models. Parameter estimation for such models poses great challenges, in particular when the data are on a relative scale. RESULTS: Here, we propose a novel hierarchical approach combining (i) the efficient analytic evaluation of optimal scaling, offset and error model parameters with (ii) the scalable evaluation of objective function gradients using adjoint sensitivity analysis. We evaluate the properties of the methods by parameterizing a pan-cancer ordinary differential equation model (>1000 state variables, >4000 parameters) using relative protein, phosphoprotein and viability measurements. The hierarchical formulation improves optimizer performance considerably. Furthermore, we show that this approach allows estimating error model parameters with negligible computational overhead when no experimental estimates are available, providing an unbiased way to weight heterogeneous data. Overall, our hierarchical formulation is applicable to a wide range of models, and allows for the efficient parameterization of large-scale models based on heterogeneous relative measurements. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Supplementary code and data are available online at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3254429 and http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3254441. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Benchmarking optimization methods for parameter estimation in large kinetic models.

MOTIVATION: Kinetic models contain unknown parameters that are estimated by optimizing the fit to experimental data. This task can be computationally challenging due to the presence of local optima and ill-conditioning. While a variety of optimization methods have been suggested to surmount these issues, it is difficult to choose the best one for a given problem a priori. A systematic comparison of parameter estimation methods for problems with tens to hundreds of optimization variables is currently missing, and smaller studies provided contradictory findings. RESULTS: We use a collection of benchmarks to evaluate the performance of two families of optimization methods: (i) multi-starts of deterministic local searches and (ii) stochastic global optimization metaheuristics; the latter may be combined with deterministic local searches, leading to hybrid methods. A fair comparison is ensured through a collaborative evaluation and a consideration of multiple performance metrics. We discuss possible evaluation criteria to assess the trade-off between computational efficiency and robustness. Our results show that, thanks to recent advances in the calculation of parametric sensitivities, a multi-start of gradient-based local methods is often a successful strategy, but a better performance can be obtained with a hybrid metaheuristic. The best performer combines a global scatter search metaheuristic with an interior point local method, provided with gradients estimated with adjoint-based sensitivities. We provide an implementation of this method to render it available to the scientific community. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code to reproduce the results is provided as Supplementary Material and is available at Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1304034. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Erratum: Publisher Correction: Multi-experiment nonlinear mixed effect modeling of single-cell translation kinetics after transfection.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41540-018-0079-7.].

Multi-experiment nonlinear mixed effect modeling of single-cell translation kinetics after transfection.

Single-cell time-lapse studies have advanced the quantitative understanding of cellular pathways and their inherent cell-to-cell variability. However, parameters retrieved from individual experiments are model dependent and their estimation is limited, if based on solely one kind of experiment. Hence, methods to integrate data collected under different conditions are expected to improve model validation and information content. Here we present a multi-experiment nonlinear mixed effect modeling approach for mechanistic pathway models, which allows the integration of multiple single-cell perturbation experiments. We apply this approach to the translation of green fluorescent protein after transfection using a massively parallel read-out of micropatterned single-cell arrays. We demonstrate that the integration of data from perturbation experiments allows the robust reconstruction of cell-to-cell variability, i.e., parameter densities, while each individual experiment provides insufficient information. Indeed, we show that the integration of the datasets on the population level also improves the estimates for individual cells by breaking symmetries, although each of them is only measured in one experiment. Moreover, we confirmed that the suggested approach is robust with respect to batch effects across experimental replicates and can provide mechanistic insights into the nature of batch effects. We anticipate that the proposed multi-experiment nonlinear mixed effect modeling approach will serve as a basis for the analysis of cellular heterogeneity in single-cell dynamics.

Scalable Inference of Ordinary Differential Equation Models of Biochemical Processes.

Ordinary differential equation models have become a standard tool for the mechanistic description of biochemical processes. If parameters are inferred from experimental data, such mechanistic models can provide accurate predictions about the behavior of latent variables or the process under new experimental conditions. Complementarily, inference of model structure can be used to identify the most plausible model structure from a set of candidates, and, thus, gain novel biological insight. Several toolboxes can infer model parameters and structure for small- to medium-scale mechanistic models out of the box. However, models for highly multiplexed datasets can require hundreds to thousands of state variables and parameters. For the analysis of such large-scale models, most algorithms require intractably high computation times. This chapter provides an overview of the state-of-the-art methods for parameter and model inference, with an emphasis on scalability.

Efficient Parameter Estimation Enables the Prediction of Drug Response Using a Mechanistic Pan-Cancer Pathway Model.

Mechanistic models are essential to deepen the understanding of complex diseases at the molecular level. Nowadays, high-throughput molecular and phenotypic characterizations are possible, but the integration of such data with prior knowledge on signaling pathways is limited by the availability of scalable computational methods. Here, we present a computational framework for the parameterization of large-scale mechanistic models and its application to the prediction of drug response of cancer cell lines from exome and transcriptome sequencing data. This framework is over 104 times faster than state-of-the-art methods, which enables modeling at previously infeasible scales. By applying the framework to a model describing major cancer-associated pathways (>1,200 species and >2,600 reactions), we could predict the effect of drug combinations from single drug data. This is the first integration of high-throughput datasets using large-scale mechanistic models. We anticipate this to be the starting point for development of more comprehensive models allowing a deeper mechanistic insight.

Optimization and profile calculation of ODE models using second order adjoint sensitivity analysis.

Motivation: Parameter estimation methods for ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of biological processes can exploit gradients and Hessians of objective functions to achieve convergence and computational efficiency. However, the computational complexity of established methods to evaluate the Hessian scales linearly with the number of state variables and quadratically with the number of parameters. This limits their application to low-dimensional problems. Results: We introduce second order adjoint sensitivity analysis for the computation of Hessians and a hybrid optimization-integration-based approach for profile likelihood computation. Second order adjoint sensitivity analysis scales linearly with the number of parameters and state variables. The Hessians are effectively exploited by the proposed profile likelihood computation approach. We evaluate our approaches on published biological models with real measurement data. Our study reveals an improved computational efficiency and robustness of optimization compared to established approaches, when using Hessians computed with adjoint sensitivity analysis. The hybrid computation method was more than 2-fold faster than the best competitor. Thus, the proposed methods and implemented algorithms allow for the improvement of parameter estimation for medium and large scale ODE models. Availability and implementation: The algorithms for second order adjoint sensitivity analysis are implemented in the Advanced MATLAB Interface to CVODES and IDAS (AMICI, https://github.com/ICB-DCM/AMICI/). The algorithm for hybrid profile likelihood computation is implemented in the parameter estimation toolbox (PESTO, https://github.com/ICB-DCM/PESTO/). Both toolboxes are freely available under the BSD license. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.